Today's Essential

In the wake of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s threats to “crush Hezbollah” and expand his military operation into Lebanon, the country has been swept into a fresh spiral of violence that reignited fears of a return to open confrontation. Those fears are all the more well-founded given that the Israeli army has begun extending the so-called security zone it controls in southern Lebanon. Meanwhile, the Israeli leader – who has secured American approval for a large-scale operation against Hezbollah – reaffirmed on Tuesday that he had no intention of “taking his foot off the accelerator,” stating that his army is intensifying its operations in Lebanon and “securing strategic positions.” The prime minister also pointed to a “national effort aimed at countering the threat of Hezbollah’s explosive drones.” Lebanese citizens are thus bracing for the worst, while Hezbollah remains wholly indifferent to the appalling human, economic, social and material toll of the devastating war into which it has dragged the country for Iran’s benefit. Israeli strikes intensified throughout Tuesday. Since Monday afternoon, the city of Nabatieh – on the verge of suffering the same fate as Bint Jbeil, reduced to a heap of ashes – along with towns in the Western Bekaa, strongholds of the pro-Iranian movement, have been subjected to the relentless fire of Israeli warplanes and drones. For the first time since the war began, the Israeli army called on the residents of Nabatieh to evacuate the entire city and make their way “north of the Zahrani River.” Also, for the first time, it struck with such ferocity at the villages of the western Bekaa. In the mixed village of Machghara alone, fifteen people were killed in a raid carried out after an evacuation order had been issued – a locality where Hezbollah fighters take shelter inside or near homes abandoned by their inhabitants in order to launch their rockets at Israeli positions. The logic of this group – to which Lebanon owes, in addition to the destruction, an Israeli occupation of a vast swath of its southern territory – remains unchanged: unable to repel the Israeli army, Hezbollah strives instead to inflict losses upon it. Yet those losses remain negligible compared to those borne by Lebanon. Since March 2, Tel Aviv has recorded 23 deaths in its military ranks, while Lebanon counts 3,185 dead and 9,633 wounded. A figure that risks climbing still higher should Israel follow through on its threats. Benjamin Netanyahu held military consultations with his Defense Minister, Israel Katz, and his Chief of Staff, Eyal Zamir, just hours before the Israeli army confirmed to Reuters its intention to push northward the fictitious “yellow line” that demarcates the so-called security zone it has established along the full length of its northern border. In the early hours of Tuesday morning, it conducted an incursion roughly ten kilometers north of that line to drive back Hezbollah fighters. The risk today is considerable that Israel will extend its sphere of influence all the way to the Zahrani River, just a few kilometers south of Sidon, in keeping with the wishes of the far-right ministers within the Israeli cabinet. Or that it will move to execute its original plan – launching an incursion into the Bekaa from positions it controls on the Lebanese slopes of Mount Hermon, in order to establish a security zone there as well and neutralize the Hezbollah threat, pending security arrangements with Lebanon. One development on the ground lends weight to this hypothesis: the targeting of roads in the Bekaa. The Israeli air force has rendered impassable the strategic road running alongside Lake Qaraoun, near the dam, which links the villages of Qaraoun and Machghara. The route in question has been struck four times, though without the dam itself being damaged, according to the Litani Water Authority. This tactic – cutting off access routes to disrupt the movement of Hezbollah fighters – echoes the one the Israeli army employed in southern Lebanon prior to launching its ground operation. Confronted with this worst-case scenario, one is entitled to ask whether Hezbollah, at Iran’s behest, has not deliberately escalated its drone attacks against the Israeli army in recent days – fully aware that Israel would not stand idly by – in order to pursue a dual objective: to derail the new round of direct talks between Beirut and Tel Aviv, tentatively scheduled for Friday in Washington, and to turn Lebanon into yet another pressure card in Tehran’s hand amid potentially fraught negotiations with the United States. For the moment, neither Israel nor Hezbollah appears ready to ease the military pressure, fueling fears of a protracted conflict over which the authorities have no control. A Mediation at a Standstill Against this charged backdrop, not only do mediation efforts to revive Iranian-American dialogue remain deadlocked, but tensions between the belligerents have resurfaced. Tehran has reverted to a language of threats, following U.S. strikes targeting Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps hydrofoils in Bandar Abbas, near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Foreign Ministry accused Washington of a “flagrant violation of the ceasefire,” while the American military asserted it had targeted missile launch sites as well as vessels suspected of laying naval mines. “Iran holds the United States responsible for all consequences arising from these aggressive and unjustified actions,” the ministry warned in a statement. For his part, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, warned that U.S. forces would henceforth have “no safe haven in the region,” while the Revolutionary Guards claimed to have shot down a U.S. drone and opened fire on other aircraft entering Iranian airspace. It is against this backdrop of renewed escalation that U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly headed to Camp David tomorrow, according to the New York Post , for consultations on the Iranian file with members of his administration, including Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, who submitted her resignation four days ago. Far from the regional tensions, the suspension of an Iranian presidential decree reinstating Internet access in Iran is also noteworthy, as it underscores the Revolutionary Guards’ grip over strategic decision-making in the country. The decision to overturn the measure was taken by Iran’s justice ministry.

On this Monday, May 25, the mood was a far cry from Saturday’s apparent enthusiasm over what had been described as an imminent regional breakthrough, driven by an Iranian-American statement of intent expected to kick-start a second round of negotiations between Washington and Tehran. To be sure, talks have picked up pace, with the various parties involved in mediation reporting progress. Yet, as the saying goes, the devil is in the details – and those details remain many. As of Monday, officials are still only speaking of a deal that “could be concluded in the coming days.” On Saturday, Washington and Tehran had presented it as almost imminent. Still, cautious optimism persists, at least on the surface. Tehran has officially acknowledged, through the spokesperson of its Foreign Ministry, that “conclusions on a large part of the issues under review” have been reached. However, these do not include the most critical matters. The latest indications suggest the deadlock centers on frozen Iranian assets and the nuclear file. In this case, the very core issue! In Doha, Iranian Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator in the Islamabad talks Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, along with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, held discussions on Monday with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani on possible solutions to these two dossiers. According to Reuters, which reported the information, the talks also touched on the future of the Strait of Hormuz. The governor of Iran’s central bank joined the meeting for the part of the talks focused on a possible thawing of Iranian assets held abroad, frozen as a result of U.S. sanctions. For Tehran, which is facing severe financial and economic difficulties, this issue is a top priority. Iran wants part of these funds to be released before any agreement is reached and is calling for a clear mechanism to guarantee the unfreezing of the remaining assets, according to the Iranian news agency Tasnim. Washington, for its part, has so far rejected this, arguing that any release of funds should be the result of a deal. Qatar is involved in the ongoing mediation alongside Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey. At the end of his discussions, the Qatari prime minister contacted his Omani counterpart to explore ways of supporting reconciliation efforts, particularly to reduce the risk of escalation in the region. The initiative may be linked to the fact that Tehran is currently in talks with Muscat over a possible coordination scheme for imposing a transit fee in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran continues to support the measure, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf reiterated on Monday, describing it as “navigation maintenance fees.” It is, however, still rejected by the United States and by countries whose tankers and cargo ships pass through this maritime route under international law. Does this mean there is still a long way to go before any possible compromise is reached? Most likely, as while Tehran is showing signs of openness, it continues to avoid appearing as though it is yielding to U.S. pressure and seeks to preserve room for maneuver on both the nuclear issue and sanctions, as reflected in remarks by Ghalibaf and by Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. The latter stated on Monday that “Tehran will not back down, as both the situation on the ground and the diplomatic process have shown.” Trump Softens Tone On the American side, following the backlash triggered by his forceful Saturday declaration of an “imminent deal,” deemed too accommodating by several Republican senators, President Donald Trump has sought to soften his remarks. On Monday, he posted on his Truth Social platform: “The deal will be excellent and meaningful, otherwise there will be no deal.” Trump stressed that any potential agreement “will not resemble the 2015 Vienna nuclear deal with Iran,” concluded under Barack Obama’s administration. He again raised the prospect of strikes in the event of failed mediation, as press reports pointed to alleged U.S. paramilitary activity in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump also directly addressed Arab countries involved in the mediation process, insisting that in the event of a deal, they must join the Abraham Accords. Lebanon and Israeli Exasperation Lebanon remains a sticking point, with Tehran seeking to include it in a broader agreement with the United States. For Israel, such an option is out of the question – a position Trump appears to acknowledge, particularly as the Hezbollah issue is expected to be handled within direct talks between Beirut and Tel Aviv. A meeting, framed as part of a “security process,” is scheduled for May 29 at the Pentagon. According to various Israeli media outlets, Tel Aviv appears inclined to broaden the scope of its strikes in Lebanon in an effort to eliminate the drone threat posed by Hezbollah. The Axios website, for its part, reported that the Trump administration would support a large-scale military operation against the Shiite party. Late on Monday evening, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he had ordered the army to “crush” Hezbollah. On Monday, the Israeli army intensified its strikes in southern Lebanon, targeting several neighborhoods in the city of Tyre, a stronghold of Parliament Speaker and Amal Movement leader Nabih Berri, as well as the nearby Palestinian camp of Rashidieh and the Nabatiyeh region. At the same time, Hezbollah stepped up its attacks using explosive drones against Israeli soldiers stationed in southern Lebanon. One soldier was killed and several others were injured, according to the Israeli army, whose chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, called for a forceful response. He argued that Tel Aviv should carry out direct strikes on buildings in the southern suburbs of Beirut in retaliation. This view was echoed by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, while National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir called for “a return to intensive warfare” and for “taking control” of the area stretching up to the Zahrani River, north of the Litani. In practice, late on Monday evening, all information coming out of Tel Aviv pointed to an imminent and rapid escalation against Hezbollah, with explicit backing from Washington.

American President Donald Trump stated a few days ago that the Iranian regime has been "pulling the wool over our eyes (the United States and the Western world) for 47 years." One could reasonably add that in the current context, it is essentially public opinion in several Levantine countries that is being misled, particularly given the flood of information on Saturday about the imminence of a "memorandum of understanding" between Washington and Tehran, from which it appears, at least judging by the leaks to the media, that President Trump seems to have essentially given in to Iran's main conditions. On this Saturday, May 23rd, certain media outlets and satellite channels have continuously bombarded the public, at a frenetic pace, with information and leaks that are contradicted a short time later. The most striking example was the information provided by the Iranian Foreign Ministry, whose spokesperson indicated in mid-afternoon that "ending the war is an operation that will take time" and that "a quick resolution is unlikely." Reflecting a hardline position on substantive issues, the spokesperson was careful to assert that the Strait of Hormuz question "does not concern the United States" (sic!) and that the nuclear file will not be addressed in any preliminary agreement on a cessation of hostilities. This same spokesperson, not hesitating to contradict himself, stated half an hour later that there was a "trend toward rapprochement" with Washington, specifying that an agreement protocol is "in the final stages." And to further mislead the media and public opinion, this same Iranian Foreign Ministry also noted, at the same time, that "we are very far away, but at the same time we are very close (!), from an agreement with the United States." The US Position On the American side, Secretary of State Marco Rubio mentioned "a chance" that the Iranian leadership "accepts an agreement" with Washington. A somewhat surprising statement, given that it should rather be the US Administration that "agrees" to make the concession of concluding an agreement with Iran, and not the other way around. The attitude of senior US officials in recent days suggests that the United States appears to be "begging" the mullah regime to "accept an agreement," thereby giving the misleading perception that Iran is the victor and is imposing its conditions and the concessions the US should make. In any case, President Trump estimated the chances of an agreement or a resumption of military operations at 50-50, stating that he would only sign an agreement, which he believed was close, if he obtained satisfaction on all the demands presented to the Iranians and if the text "took into account Israel's interests." His statement on this matter was, however, somewhat contradicted by the leaks to the media concerning the broad outlines of the emerging memorandum which, if they are truly confirmed, would mean that they actually satisfy the Iranian positions in their broad lines, thus marking a clear American retreat in several respects. The agreement in question would indeed provide, according to information leaked to the media, for a definitive end to hostilities without the nuclear file being addressed, without enriched uranium being transported out of Iran, and without any commitment from the Revolutionary Guards concerning the fate of Iranian proxies and the end of the destabilization campaign in the countries of the region, not to mention that the vital question of political prisoners—numbering in the thousands—and mass executions by hanging of Iranian teenagers and young people appears to be completely ignored. These provisions, if confirmed, would constitute to a large extent an almost total alignment with the Iranian position and a serious setback for the US Administration. Trump's consultations In his various public statements on Saturday evening, the White House chief indicated that he will make his decision on Sunday, May 24, regarding whether to conclude the agreement or resume military operations, after consulting with his closest advisors as well as with the leaders of Gulf countries, Turkey, and Egypt. Late in the evening, he was also scheduled to have a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. As negotiations intensified to finalize the text of the draft agreement, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was to contact Hezbollah's Secretary-General, Sheikh Naim Kassem, by telephone to reaffirm the Islamic Republic's "firm support" for the pro-Iranian party, emphasizing in this context that Iran insisted on a ceasefire in Lebanon being one of the clauses of the agreement negotiated with the United States. This Iranian position, which was added to the momentum of recent regional diplomatic negotiations, prompted Netanyahu to convene the leaders of his government coalition for an urgent meeting scheduled to take place late Saturday evening. It was in this fevered climate that US official sources indicated overnight that the White House chief should announce his decision on Sunday regarding the draft agreement with the mullah regime.

On Friday, Iran had still not met American conditions for resuming negotiations with Washington, which is displaying cautious optimism about a possible breakthrough. Global stock markets were indeed trading in the green during the day, buoyed by hope sustained by the diplomatic pressure being exerted to reach a statement of intent that would serve as a basis for resuming Iranian-American talks. Pakistan's army chief, Asim Munir, is expected in Tehran for talks with senior officials, according to Iran's official news agency, IRNA. Reuters reported the presence of a Qatari delegation in Iran as part of a mission conducted in coordination with Washington, while the Axios website indicates that Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey are also involved in ongoing diplomatic efforts. But for now, Tehran, which hopes to wear down the United States to extract maximum concessions, continues to defy Donald Trump. The Revolutionary Guards announced this morning the number of cargo ships and tankers that have crossed the Strait of Hormuz under the new toll rules imposed by the Islamic Republic. These are "contrary to international law," the European Union recalled. Brussels, moreover, decided on Friday to extend sanctions imposed on Iran to "persons and entities involved in actions that threaten freedom of navigation in the Middle East." Among the countries affected and inconvenienced by Iranian measures on Hormuz, the United Arab Emirates, which called on Iran, through the voice of the high adviser to the Emirati president, Anwar Gargash, to "not overestimate its hand" in upcoming negotiations with Washington. According to him, the chances of an Iran-US agreement to unblock this strait are "50-50." Furthermore, Mr. Gargash warned against a ceasefire "with no way out, which would sow the seeds of future conflict." "The Iranian nuclear program, which was our second or third concern, is now our first concern," he emphasized. "We have realized that Iran is capable of using any weapon at its disposal." The shock of American sanctions In Lebanon, meanwhile, people remain shocked by sanctions imposed by Washington on a group of lawmakers and, for the first time, on security officials deemed close to Hezbollah and the Amal movement of House Speaker Nabih Berry. These are, namely, the chief of the national security department at the General Security, General Khattar Nassereddine, and the chief of the army's intelligence bureau in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Colonel Samir Hamadé. Both are accused by the US Treasury of having "shared important intelligence with Hezbollah during the ongoing conflict." The other individuals targeted are Hezbollah lawmakers Hassan Fadlallah, Ibrahim Moussaoui, Hussein Hajj Hassan, as well as former minister Mohammad Fneich, a member of the pro-Iranian formation's executive council and former lawmaker, the ambassador accredited by Tehran to Beirut, Mohammad Reza Chibani, as well as Ahmad Assaad Baalbacki and Ali Ahmad Safaoui, both Amal security officials. The Lebanese army indirectly rejected the accusations leveled by Washington against its officer, accused of aiding Hezbollah, by emphasizing in a statement that the loyalty of its soldiers goes "solely to the institution." All officers and soldiers "carry out their national missions (...) in accordance with decisions of the army command," according to a statement from the forces, which said it had not been informed of the sanctions "through the usual channels of communication" with Washington. Iran denounced the sanctions against its ambassador, calling them "illegal." On the ground in Lebanon, an Israeli strike killed six people, including two emergency responders and a young girl, in the village of Deir Qanoune al-Nahr, in the Tyre region. During the night from Thursday to Friday, four emergency responders affiliated with Hezbollah were killed in a raid on Hanaouay, near Tyre. NATO and Trump Meanwhile, meeting in Sweden, foreign ministers from NATO's European countries hoped to get clarification Friday from the United States about its military presence in Europe, especially following Donald Trump's announcement to deploy 5,000 American soldiers in Poland, when he had been considering reducing the American military presence on the continent. During this meeting, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told his NATO allies that American decisions on troop deployments in Europe announced in recent weeks by Donald Trump were not "punitive." "It's simply an ongoing process that existed before," he said, adding that the U.S. would need to "address" Mr. Trump's "concerns" about the Middle East. In Washington, U.S. intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard announced her resignation. She, who appeared to disagree with President Donald Trump over the war in Iran, has headed the National Intelligence Directorate (DNI), the agency that oversees all intelligence agencies, since Donald Trump's return to the White House. Tulsi Gabbard was expected to leave by American media, appearing to be at odds with Donald Trump. Notably, she had refused during a parliamentary hearing in March to confirm the Republican's claims that Iran represented an "imminent threat" before the U.S.-Israeli strikes that triggered the war in the Middle East. She is the fourth woman to leave the Trump administration in three months, following Justice Minister Pam Bondi, Homeland Security Minister Kristi Noem, and Labor Minister Lori Chavez-DeRemer. On April 3, in the midst of the war in Iran, the Pentagon announced the departure of the Army Chief of Staff, General Randy George, a removal that adds to the list of senior officers removed by the Trump administration.

The diplomatic maneuvering aimed at ending the war between the United States and Iran continues with the visit to Tehran of a new senior Pakistani official, mediator of the discussions. Between statements from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who claimed that "progress had been made," and those from Iran's Foreign Ministry, according to which "negotiations currently focus on ending the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon," a certain optimism seemed to be emerging after a series of explosive messages exchanged by both sides. But information published Thursday by the Reuters agency concerning Iranian nuclear matters, as well as a hardening of the Revolutionary Guards' position on the Strait of Hormuz, came to sweep away this diplomatic lull. According to Reuters, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, has issued a directive that Iranian uranium enriched to a level close to that necessary for nuclear weapon production should not be transferred abroad. "The Supreme Leader's directive, as well as consensus within the establishment, is that the enriched uranium stockpile must not leave the country," said one of two Iranian sources cited by Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity. According to these sources, Iran's highest officials believe that a transfer of this material abroad would make the country more vulnerable to future American or Israeli attacks. The two Iranian officials also stated that deep mistrust prevails in Tehran regarding the current ceasefire, perceived as a possible tactical maneuver by Washington intended to create a false sense of security before a resumption of airstrikes. According to the sources, the two parties have begun to narrow certain gaps, but major disagreements persist concerning Iran's nuclear program—notably the fate of enriched uranium stockpiles and Tehran's demand to have its right to enrichment recognized. One of the sources nevertheless stated that there were "workable formulas" to resolve this dispute. "There are solutions, such as dilution of the stockpile under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency," said one of the Iranian officials, cited by the London-based agency. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimates that Iran possessed 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% when Israel and the United States struck Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025. The amount of material that survived these strikes remains unknown. This decision hardens Tehran's position on one of the main American demands in the peace talks. Ayatollah Khamenei's order could heighten tensions with U.S. President Donald Trump and further complicate discussions aimed at ending the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran. Donald Trump stated Thursday that the United States would not allow Iran to keep its highly enriched uranium stockpile. "We're going to get it. We don't need it, we don't want it. We'll probably destroy it once we have it, but we won't let them keep it," Trump told journalists at the White House. Hormuz: Iran expands its claims Concerning a second sensitive point in negotiations with the United States, Iran's new strait of Hormuz management authority claimed Thursday a control zone extending to waters south of the Emirati port of Fujairah, drawing the ire of its Gulf neighbor. Tehran has controlled navigation in this strategic maritime corridor for global hydrocarbon commerce since the start of the war in the Middle East. Although a ceasefire came into effect on April 8, authorities are requiring vessels transiting the strait to obtain permits from Iranian armed forces. The brand-new "Persian Gulf Strait Authority," which now has an official account on X, published a message on Wednesday accompanied by a map, claiming to have delineated "the zone of regulatory jurisdiction for managing" the strait. It states that this zone extends "from Kuh-e Mubarak in Iran to south of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates" regarding the strait's eastern entrance, and on the western side "from Qeshm Island to Umm Al-Quwain," one of the seven emirates comprising the UAE. "Transit through this zone for the purpose of crossing the Strait of Hormuz requires coordination with the Persian Gulf Strait Authority and its authorization," it specifies. This is likely to anger Abu Dhabi, as the port of Fujairah is central to its strategy for bypassing the strait blockade. "The (Iranian) regime is attempting to impose a new reality (...), but attempts to control the Strait of Hormuz or undermine the maritime sovereignty of the Emirates are nothing but fantasy," responded Anwar Gargash, advisor to the Emirati president, on X. U.S. Sanctions Against Amal and Hezbollah On another front, Washington announced Thursday that it was placing nine individuals on its sanctions list, accused of being close to or members of Hezbollah's leadership and of "obstructing peace and disarmament" of the Iranian-backed Lebanese group. Among the targets of the U.S. Treasury Department's sanctions are Iran's designated ambassador to Lebanon, Mohammad Reza Raouf Sheibani, Lebanese intelligence officials, political allies of Hezbollah, and four group officials. One of them is Hezbollah deputy Hassan Fadlallah, who also headed the movement's radio station (Al-Nour) and television network (Al-Manar). The Lebanese government rejected the Iranian ambassador's credentials in mid-March and ordered him to leave the country, but Sheibani refused to depart Beirut. The Treasury Department's measures also target Ahmad Baalbeki and Ali Safawi, two officials of the Amal movement, headed by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. In its statement, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared that "Hezbollah is a terrorist organization that must be completely disarmed. The Treasury Department will continue to target officials who have infiltrated the Lebanese government and enabled Hezbollah to conduct its senseless campaign of violence against the Lebanese people and obstruct peace." The sanctions involve freezing all assets held directly and indirectly by the targeted individuals and prohibiting U.S. citizens and companies from conducting transactions with them. This prohibition also applies to foreign companies if they have operations in the United States or conduct any part of their transactions in dollars. On the ground, a hospital in southern Lebanon was damaged Thursday by an Israeli strike, according to the Health Ministry, with the Israeli military continuing raids despite a fragile ceasefire with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah. "Two Israeli strikes targeted the locality of Tebnine, near the government hospital," in the Bint Jbeil region, reported the National News Agency. The ministry further stated that the strike wounded "nine people, including seven hospital staff members, five of whom are women." The ministry had indicated Wednesday that three hospitals in the south had been closed and 16 others damaged since the start of the war between Israel and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah on March 2.

South Lebanon witnessed another escalation Tuesday night and again Wednesday, while at the regional level, Pakistan continues to quietly work to try to defuse a conflict that threatens to spiral out of control at any moment, given the exchange of threats between Washington and Tehran. The Israeli military conducted a series of deadly airstrikes and artillery attacks over the past twenty-four hours against numerous Hezbollah positions and infrastructure in villages and sites in southern Lebanon. According to the latest toll released by the Lebanese Ministry of Health, these attacks killed at least 20 people over the past 24 hours, including 13 alone in the village of Deir Qanoun el-Nahr. This figure is likely to rise as search efforts continued Wednesday through the rubble of targeted homes. The situation worsened Wednesday morning with nearly continuous raids on the pro-Iranian party's positions in the towns of Bint Jbeil and Nabatiyeh, while Hezbollah reported in a series of statements fierce ground clashes with forces in the border zone. The Israeli military announced in a statement that one of its officers was seriously wounded in a Hezbollah drone attack. A soldier was also slightly injured, according to the statement. This escalation of violence in South Lebanon dashed hopes for an easing desired by Beirut after the 45-day extension of the ceasefire, which had been negotiated in Washington. Toward a breakthrough in the Gulf? It comes just as Pakistan, a key mediator between Washington and Tehran, is attempting once again to reach a minimal compromise to allow talks to resume between the two capitals. Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi traveled for this purpose for the second time in less than a week to Tehran. This visit comes amid growing tensions between Tehran and Washington. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, also Iran's chief negotiator at the Islamabad talks, warned that his country has prepared a "muscular response" to any new American or Israeli attack. The Revolutionary Guards also warned that war in the Middle East would extend "beyond the region" in case of attacks. Responding to questions from the press at the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump hinted that a resumption of strikes is still being considered if diplomatic efforts fail, which have been praised by Saudi Arabia. "We are in the final phase of talks with Iran. We'll see what happens. Either we reach a deal, or we hit hard. We hope that doesn't happen," he said, while stating he was opposed to any rush. "I'm not in a hurry," he declared. "Everyone talks about midterm elections, but I'm not in a hurry. Ideally, I'd prefer to see a small number of people killed rather than many," he added. Gaza flotilla: video sparks outrage President Trump also said he is on the same wavelength as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is currently facing a new crisis triggered by the forceful detention of "Gaza flotilla" activists. The conduct of his National Security Minister, Itamar Ben Gvir, who shared a video of himself with activists kneeling and bound after their detention, sparked outraged reactions in Europe and worldwide, despite criticism from Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar. Foreign reactions were not long in coming. The treatment of detainees was deemed "inadmissible" by Rome, which demanded "an apology," "monstrous, unworthy and inhuman" by Madrid, "odious" by Ottawa. Dublin said it was "dismayed and shocked." France announced it had summoned the Israeli ambassador over the "inadmissible actions" of minister Ben Gvir, known for his provocative statements, as did Belgium, which judged the images "deeply disturbing." Germany, calling the episode "totally unacceptable." Turkey condemned the "barbaric mentality" of the Israeli government. British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper stated on X that these images "violate the most basic standards of respect and dignity regarding how people should be treated." U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee criticized "despicable acts." Putin in Beijing Away from the regional conflict, attention was focused on Wednesday on talks in Beijing between Chinese and Russian presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, whose visit comes less than a week after President Trump's visit. The two countries stressed the need to return to dialogue and negotiations as soon as possible in the Middle East, according to the text of a joint statement published by the Kremlin, while Tehran announced it had authorized some fifty tankers flying the flag of "countries that coordinate with us" to cross the Strait of Hormuz.

After announcing on Monday that he had canceled a planned attack on Iran at the last minute, which was scheduled for the following day, US President Donald Trump threatened again on Tuesday to strike Iran if no agreement was reached. For its part, the Iranian military responded by threatening Washington to open "new fronts" if their attacks resume. From the White House, where he was showing journalists the construction site of the East Wing of the presidential headquarters, Trump reiterated that he hoped he would not have to wage war. "But we might have to give them another big blow. I'm not sure right now," he said. When asked how long he was willing to wait for Iran to come to the negotiating table, he remained vague: "two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday, something like that, maybe early next week". Donald Trump gave journalists a tour on Tuesday of the construction site of the future ballroom of the White House, while brushing off questions about the building's financing as well as the cost of living. (AFP) From Tehran, even as the suspension of strikes had already been announced, the Iranian military continued its threats, stating that it would "open new fronts" if strikes resumed. An article in the New York Times indicates that Iranian officials could consider new tactics if fighting resumes, such as seeking to control the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, which controls the southern entrance to the Red Sea. This maritime passage, among the most strategic in the world, is bordered to the east by Yemen, where Houthi militias, allied with Iran, had repeatedly blocked the strait in retaliation for American strikes. The NYT adds that Iran has been able to prepare to launch a large number of missiles per day, noting that the initial strikes (before the ceasefire) had not been able to eradicate the missile launchers, which are located underground. This would explain the Gulf countries' fears of a resumption of hostilities. "We will fight Israeli agents just as we fight the Israelis themselves" In Lebanon, as the highly controversial general amnesty bill was being debated in Parliament, deputy Hassan Fadlallah, a recent prominent spokesman for Hezbollah, distinguished himself with a statement of rare virulence against Lebanese leaders, accompanied by an unprecedented threat. "We will fight Israeli agents exactly as we fight the Israelis themselves," he declared, without specifying what he meant by "agents". He indicated that his party "would not accept any new Antoine Lahd imposed by the Americans and Zionists, under whatever guise," in reference to the founder of the pro-Israeli militia from the 1980s. The Hezbollah deputy is clearly firing broadsides at the Lebanese-Israeli-American military cooperation set to begin on May 29 in Washington as part of negotiations, one of whose objectives would be the disarmament of Hezbollah. He is also taking aim at Lebanon's official efforts in direct negotiations with Israel, the latest round of which took place last week in Washington, arguing that these are "synonymous with surrender" and have "not even managed to produce a ceasefire". On the ground in southern Lebanon, the situation is deteriorating. Despite the extension of the ceasefire for 45 days since last Friday. For the first time, evacuation orders have reached the city of Nabatiyé and a dozen other villages. And the death toll since March 2 has exceeded 3,000, with the number of wounded exceeding 9,300. Israeli forces have kidnapped three Lebanese people in the Hasbaya region. According to the National News Agency, they set up a checkpoint, arrested these three individuals, and confiscated the phones of several others present at the scene. Meanwhile, Syria was hit by a terrorist attack on Tuesday that killed one soldier and wounded 12 others in Damascus. Syrian authorities regularly complain about attempts to destabilize the country, but the perpetrators of this attack remain unknown.

Iran responded Monday to a new U.S. proposal aimed at breaking the diplomatic deadlock and bringing a lasting end to the war in the Middle East, its Foreign Ministry said, adding that exchanges with Washington were continuing "through the Pakistani mediator". Iran reiterated its demands on Monday, particularly calling for the release of frozen Iranian assets abroad and the lifting of international sanctions suffocating its economy. The spokesman also insisted on the payment of reparations for the war, which he described as "illegal and baseless". On Sunday, Iranian media denounced the "excessive conditions" imposed by the United States in its latest offer. According to the Fars agency, they demand that Iran maintain only a single active nuclear site and transfer its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to the United States. A Risky Gamble In this context, Iran formally established Monday a new body, the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, to manage this passage. The exact prerogatives of this new structure were not immediately revealed. But according to the specialized journal Lloyd's List, it is "responsible for approving ship transits and collecting passage fees in the Strait of Hormuz". Indeed, the Islamic Republic believes that controlling this chokepoint would be a magic weapon to force the United States to back down. The Revolutionary Guards even threatened Monday to charge for the use of submarine fiber optic cables crossing the Strait of Hormuz, noting that any disruption to this equipment would cost the global economy up to "hundreds of millions of dollars per day". In a message on Telegram, the ideological army of the Islamic Republic stated that in the name of Iran's "absolute sovereignty" over its territorial waters, the country "could declare that all fiber optic cables crossing the maritime route are subject to permits, monitoring and tolls"… Without question, this radical position comes from the hardline faction of the regime, namely the Revolutionary Guards. But this risky posture could trigger a resumption of military confrontation. For the Pasdaran and hardliners in the regime, this is nothing less than an existential war that they seek to perpetuate. While Iran has lost many leaders, its infrastructure has been severely damaged by bombardments, and its economy is depleted, the ruling class refuses to capitulate—and is even demanding concessions. Tehran believes that Donald Trump will lose patience over rising gas prices before the midterm elections in November. The near-paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global hydrocarbon production normally transits, has lasted since the war began on February 28, to which Washington responded by imposing a blockade on Iranian ports. The blockade of this passage drove oil prices soaring. But what Iranian leaders forget is that the circumstances are not ideal, as the population is very hostile to this standoff, especially following the large protests in January, suppressed with bloodshed (nearly 40,000 deaths in two days, January 8 and 9), and because of the war's impact on the economy and infrastructure. A Grim Record It is on this point that Iran was singled out in Amnesty International's annual report released Monday, which states that the number of executions recorded worldwide rose in 2025 and reached its highest level since 1981, a surge mainly due to Iran, where executions more than doubled last year. Alone, the Islamic Republic accounts for 80% of executions recorded in 2025 by Amnesty. Some 2,159 people were executed by hanging in the country last year, compared to 972 in 2024. "Iranian authorities have intensified their use of capital punishment as a tool of political repression and control, driving an unprecedented surge in the number of executions," the NGO notes in its report. The resort to executions was particularly pronounced after the 12-Day War between Iran, Israel and the United States in June: 654 executions were recorded before this conflict, compared to 1,505 between July and December. Death sentences and executions in Iran following the protest movement in the country in January and the start of the Middle Eastern conflict on February 28 are not included in Amnesty's report. But according to NGOs based in certain European countries, no fewer than 600 Iranian teenagers and young people, many of them university students, have been hanged since January. On the Ground… A drone strike caused a fire Sunday near the Barakah nuclear power plant in western United Arab Emirates, with no injuries or increase in radioactivity, authorities denouncing a "terrorist attack". Air defense systems detected "three drones that had entered from the western border," two of which were successfully intercepted, while the other "struck an electrical generator" near the site, according to the UAE Defense Ministry. The ministry denounced a "terrorist" attack, seemingly suggesting Iranian involvement. The attack, "whether carried out by the principal actor or by one of its agents, represents a dangerous escalation," it said on X. Abu Dhabi has repeatedly accused Iran of carrying out strikes since the ceasefire of April 8, which ended hostilities between the Islamic Republic, Israel and the United States. Moreover, Saudi Arabia indicated Monday that it had intercepted three drones over its territory, specifying that they had apparently been fired from Iraqi territory. It should be noted in this context that Qatar and the UN Secretary-General strongly condemned the drone strike on the Barakah nuclear power plant sector. In Lebanon… On the Lebanese front, despite the (theoretical) entry into force Sunday at midnight of the extension of the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah for a period of 45 days, Israel continued its strikes Monday against positions and infrastructure of the pro-Iranian party in several localities in South Lebanon and the Bekaa. The Israeli military called for the evacuation of three localities in the Tyre and Nabatiyeh regions in anticipation of bombardments. On Sunday, an Israeli strike near Baalbek in the town of Douriss killed the Islamic Jihad commander in the Bekaa.

A relatively calm weekend beginning on both the Lebanese and regional fronts, with the exception of ongoing military operations in South Lebanon and certain sectors of the Bekaa. This Sunday, May 17, should formally mark the start of the extended ceasefire, lasting 45 days, decided Friday during the third round of direct Lebanese-Israeli negotiations held Thursday and Friday in Washington under the auspices of the State Department. Even if Israel officially gives its approval for this new ceasefire (it could hardly refuse), nothing suggests that Israeli air strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure or the elimination of pro-Iranian party officials through targeted air raids will be suspended. Awaiting the hour when the truce begins, Saturday was marked by an intensification of Israeli air raids and heavy artillery bombardments against the positions of the Shiite faction in several villages in the districts of Tyre, Sidon, and Nabatieh, causing the population to flee toward the city of Sidon. Meanwhile, an Israeli drone was flying over the capital and the southern suburbs at very low altitude. At the regional level, political circles are still waiting for the decision that President Donald Trump should make shortly regarding the conflict with Iran, in light of Iran's final position on American peace proposals. On Saturday, Pakistan's Interior Minister traveled to Tehran to discuss with Iranian leaders the possibility of reviving Pakistan's mediation with the United States before the situation deteriorates militarily. Iranian Maneuver At this stage, Iranian sources reported on Saturday discussions launched by 'certain European countries' with the Islamic Republic to find a way out of the explosive problem of the Strait of Hormuz. Should this initiative by certain European countries be confirmed, it would inevitably result in a rehabilitation of the regime and a strengthening of its position against the Trump Administration. In practical terms, the Iranian government persists in wanting to take advantage of the current crisis to attempt to impose its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz in order to generate substantial revenues that would allow it to offset some of the losses suffered during the armed conflict with the United States and Israel. According to certain sources, Tehran is seeking to circumvent the unanimous international refusal of any direct toll policy that the Revolutionary Guards were trying to impose on countries using the strait. For the Islamic Republic, the alternative solution being examined by the Ministry of Economy would be to collect, not a toll, but a kind of financial contribution in exchange for 'services' provided to ships transiting this maritime route. Among these 'services' would be 'insurance' covering specific risks. Such a disguised 'tax' would generate particularly high revenues, exceeding what a conventional toll could ensure. The regime would not be satisfied with this kind of state 'extortion'; it would intend to push the maneuver further by making a unilateral decision to substantially expand the maritime zone of the strait that it is attempting to bring under its sovereignty! The question remains whether the United States, and especially the European countries, will agree to back down in the face of Iranian blackmail…

Obviously, one could not have expected spectacular results or decisions from the third round of direct Lebanese-Israeli negotiations held Thursday and Friday at the State Department in Washington. However, it must be acknowledged that the mere fact that these bilateral face-to-face discussions took place in Washington under the auspices of the US Administration represents a significant breakthrough in itself. Beyond this politically symbolic parameter, some positive signs emerged Friday evening following the marathon meetings held by the Lebanese and Israeli delegations. The State Department emphasized that the exchanges took place in a 'positive atmosphere that even exceeded our expectations.' In the same vein, Lebanon's embassy in the federal capital stated that it 'welcomes the outcome of the discussions' with Israel, clarifying that these negotiations are part of a 'political process' that should lead to a favorable resolution of the current conflict in the direction of restoring Lebanese state sovereignty 'through its own forces.' As for Israel's ambassador to Washington, he declared that the chances of success in negotiations with Lebanon are 'high.' Concretely, Friday's marathon meeting produced practical measures: an extension of the cessation of hostilities for a 45-day period; a summons for military officers and experts from both countries to a meeting on May 29 at the Pentagon to launch 'a security process between Lebanon and Israel'; a summons for both delegations to a new round of negotiations scheduled for June 2-3 at the State Department. In the absence of spectacular and rapid decisions, the American mediator is opting for a realistic approach: the step-by-step diplomacy (favored by Kissinger) aimed at gradually building a climate of trust and mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries. Change in the designation of the May 25 holiday It is worth noting, in light of the spirit of the process underway in Washington, that Prime Minister Nawaf Salam adopted Friday a symbolic measure that, while symbolic, carries significant political meaning and implications. He issued an administrative note confirming the May 25 holiday, which in previous years since Israel's 2000 withdrawal had been observed as 'Resistance and Liberation Day.' This year, the Prime Minister's note regarding the May 25 holiday makes no mention of 'resistance' or 'liberation,' but instead emphasizes that the holiday will be observed 'in solidarity with the families of martyrs, the wounded, prisoners, the displaced, and the residents of the South and border villages.' This particular and very explicit mention confirms that the government no longer recognizes the existence of a 'resistance' that Hezbollah seeks to embody regardless of all obstacles, disregarding the position of legality and the overwhelming majority of Lebanese who reject the suicidal military adventures of the pro-Iranian militia. Just Friday evening, the Prime Minister declared that it 'is time to definitively end the reckless adventures (alluding to Hezbollah) carried out in service of foreign projects,' criticizing accusations of 'treason' leveled by the pro-Iranian militia. Recall that following Hezbollah's launch of hostilities once again on March 2 to 'avenge the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei' in Tehran, the Council of Ministers adopted a resolution stating that Hezbollah's security and military apparatus is now considered 'illegal.' Following this decision, the Information Minister called on official media to no longer mention 'resistance' in their news bulletins and political programs. Elimination of Hamas military chief It is worth noting, on another matter but still within this military-security context at the regional level, that the Israeli military eliminated Friday, in a targeted strike on Gaza, the head of Hamas's military apparatus, Ezzeddine Haddad, accused of being one of the masterminds of the deadly October 7, 2023 attack against Israeli civilians on the outskirts of Gaza. The Beijing Summit The second highly strategic matter that marked the news on Friday, May 15 is the conclusion of the US-Chinese summit held in Beijing, which had begun Friday. It will undoubtedly take a few days before credible and precise information is released concerning the actual outcome of the discussions that President Donald Trump and his delegation had with Chinese leaders over these two days. Already, some significant indications made public allow us to sketch out the possible implications of this historic summit on the Iran conflict. President Trump notably stated that there is complete convergence of American and Chinese viewpoints concerning Iran. Concretely, President Xi Jinping aligns with the Trump Administration's position on the nuclear issue, in the sense that, like the White House chief, he asserts that under no circumstances should the Iranian regime be able to acquire nuclear weapons. This Chinese position is not new, as illustrated by Beijing's stance during the vote on five UN Security Council resolutions concerning Iran's uranium enrichment. The first of these resolutions, dated July 2006, 'required' Tehran to cease its uranium enrichment. The mullah regime obviously disregarded this resolution. In December of that same year, the Security Council imposed sanctions on Iran to compel compliance with UN directives. To no avail… Three other resolutions were passed by the Security Council in 2007, 2008, and 2010 to impose increasingly severe sanctions on Tehran. China, like Moscow, did not impose a veto, which reflected alignment with Western countries on the necessity of compelling the mullah regime to halt uranium enrichment. During his talks with President Trump, Xi reiterated his country's principled position on this matter. Another point of convergence between Xi and the White House chief (as well as with European countries generally): rejection of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and therefore rejection of toll imposition by the Revolutionary Guards. In parallel, the Chinese leader reportedly committed to his host not to supply military equipment to the Iranian regime. It follows from these indications that the Beijing summit could result in a weakening of Iran's position in the face of American conditions aimed at achieving a political solution to the current conflict. The coming days should in any case clarify the situation further in this regard. The big question to be raised in this connection in the short term, in light of the Beijing summit's outcome, is whether President Trump will decide to launch or not new well-targeted military operations on Iranian territory with the aim, notably, of securing enriched uranium and dealing new severe blows to Iran's economic infrastructure in order to bring the mullah regime to renounce its irrational adventures and its belligerent, arrogant behavior, defying all reason in a completely shameless manner.