Today's Essential

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) announced on Friday that it had transferred four more people released by Israel to Lebanon, a day after the release of a first civilian. They are three Lebanese nationals and two Syrians, according to the ICRC. This is the first time such an operation has taken place since negotiations between Lebanon and Israel began in April under US auspices. During the last round of talks in August, Beirut had requested the release of a first group of its nationals captured by Israel in southern Lebanon, where Israel is at war with the pro-Iranian Hezbollah. Their relatives estimate their number at around thirty, including fighters from the Islamist movement. In a statement, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun thanked the United States and the ICRC, saying the release "confirmed the soundness of the position" taken by Lebanon, which is engaged in negotiations with Israel that Hezbollah rejects. On Thursday, the United States praised "the government of Israel and the government of Lebanon for demonstrating good faith through these initial steps," expressing hope that this would "serve as a foundation for broader discussions on other civilian matters." The two countries are set to hold another round of negotiations in September, though the date has not yet been set. According to the Israeli prime minister's office, Thursday's announcement "follows efforts by Israel and Lebanon to locate and repatriate the remains of Jewish community leaders who were kidnapped and killed in Lebanon" between 1984 and 1986. Israeli strikes intensify On the ground, Israeli strikes killed three people and wounded 23 others on Friday in southern and eastern Lebanon. Israel stepped up its strikes in the region on Friday, after announcing Thursday evening that it had taken control of the Ali Taher mountain ridge, which had served as a strategic position for the pro-Iranian Hezbollah and overlooks Nabatiyeh, among other areas. The army will now reinforce its positions there in order to "prevent the enemy from retaking the area," said Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz. A strike also hit the Tyre region, particularly the village of Rmadiyé, according to the National News Agency (NNA). For Trump, the war in Iran is "small potatoes" Regarding the war in Iran, US President Donald Trump sought on Friday to downplay its impact on the United States ahead of the crucial midterm elections. "A lot of people aren't calling it a war. I call it a military conflict, because it's small potatoes for us. It's not a big deal. We did Venezuela, and we did that," he told reporters in the Oval Office when asked about his vice president, JD Vance, who had said the day before that he didn't want to call the conflict a war. With fuel prices surging because of the war and threatening to cost Donald Trump's Republicans their majority in Congress in November's midterm elections, his administration is working to downplay the scale of the conflict. According to the president, the United States is carrying out "targeted strikes," insisting that it is "not currently engaged in fighting." He also claimed that the United States controlled the Strait of Hormuz and had wiped out Iran's armed forces. "What we've accomplished is remarkable. We took control of Venezuela, and we've essentially taken control of Iran," he said.

The Israeli military announced Thursday that it had "completed the clearing of two Hezbollah underground infrastructures on the Ali al-Taher ridge" in southern Lebanon, stating that "its forces are now working to neutralize them." Quoted by the Jerusalem Post and on its X account, the Israeli military specified that "the forces of the 36th Division have operated in the area over recent weeks and have taken operational control of the ridge, both above and below ground. During the operation, the area was cleared of Hezbollah fighters who had been deployed there — some were killed while others fled." Sources also indicated that no Iranian personnel were found in the tunnels, despite experts claiming that at least a dozen members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were entrenched there alongside Hezbollah fighters. The Post reports that, according to the military, these infrastructures were built over a period of approximately twenty years and were planned and financed by Iran. Illustration generated from the topographic relief of the Ali al-Taher region. Additionally, according to information revealed by Reuters, Iran had warned the United States against an Israeli strike on the Ali al-Taher site. This underscores how deeply Tehran remains involved in the front opened by Hezbollah, its ally, against Israel since March 2. Israel releases five Lebanese nationals, holds three others Thursday began with an unusual Israeli operation, carried out relatively far from the occupied zone, in the village of Houla, in Hasbaya, in the south of the country. Israeli troops infiltrated the village and detained three of its residents after surrounding several homes and preventing their occupants from evacuating, according to the National News Agency. The detainees were taken into Israeli territory, according to witnesses cited by the agency. This latest Israeli violation — added to the multiple explosions triggered Thursday by its military at various points across the south — did not overshadow the day's other surprise: Israel's announcement of the release of five Lebanese prisoners held in its jails, all arrested either during the current conflict, which began March 2, or the previous one in 2023–2024. One young man was indeed released Thursday and handed over to the Lebanese army at the Naqoura border crossing. According to the local outlet al-Modon , the release of four other Lebanese nationals was reportedly postponed to Friday. "I wouldn't call it a war" Regarding the conflict with Iran, U.S. Vice President JD Vance said Thursday that the hostilities — which are stirring discontent among a segment of American voters ahead of important midterm elections — did not constitute "a war," while also asserting that passage through the Strait of Hormuz had "almost" returned to normal. While, according to the Wall Street Journal , President Donald Trump is reportedly considering simply declaring the conflict over, the Vice President sought to downplay the hostilities during a press conference at the White House. "I wouldn't call it a war. Right now, there is no exchange of fire," he said, even as the United States has struck Iranian targets twice in recent days. One of those strikes, which Iran has vowed to avenge, killed four people at a wedding. "Iranian state media has not really reported reliably on what has happened in this conflict so far, so I am extremely skeptical about that," JD Vance said in response to a question about the strike, adding that the United States was nonetheless conducting "a thorough investigation." "We have great control over the Strait of Hormuz. We are moving 30 to 40 ships through per night," Donald Trump assured in an interview with British conservative channel GB News, broadcast on Thursday. Finally, the ultimate sign that the war in the Middle East is far from over: according to the Wall Street Journal , the U.S. Department of Defense has quietly extended the deployment of 50,000 troops stationed in the region. Iranian strikes on Kuwait and the UAE On the ground, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that, during the night from Wednesday to Thursday, they carried out strikes against "American targets" in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. In a statement, the Pasdaran claimed to have targeted "using missiles and drones, the satellite communication systems, equipment depots, and fighter jet hangars of the American military at Ahmad al-Jaber Air Base in Kuwait." In the United Arab Emirates, it was the American radar systems at al-Minhad Air Base that were targeted.

Since the American strikes against Iran on Tuesday night—the first in roughly a month—tensions between the warring parties have reached a breaking point. Iran has continued its strikes throughout Tuesday night and into Wednesday, targeting neighboring countries, as it typically does whenever it comes under attack. Jordan said it had shot down several drones. In Kuwait, a fire broke out following a drone attack, and the Iranians themselves claimed to have targeted the Al Dhafra and Al Minhad bases in the United Arab Emirates. Later in the day, the Revolutionary Guards announced they had struck American targets in Erbil, in Iraqi Kurdistan. The United States, which had not carried out any new strikes as of Wednesday afternoon, once again urged its nationals in the region to remain vigilant. The American strikes from the previous evening and overnight have nonetheless left their mark. Iran reported at least eleven deaths as a result of these strikes: four at a wedding in the southeast of the country, where around fifty people were also wounded, and seven in the Khuzestan region, in missile attacks that left eight more injured. The Revolutionary Guards themselves acknowledged the deaths of four of their own members in the strikes, along with three Basij members—the notorious morality police. Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the strikes as a "war crime." The U.S. military, while declining to comment on the matter directly, simply stated that it "never targets civilians." However, the most striking remarks came from the Speaker of Parliament and Iran's chief negotiator with the Americans during the Islamabad talks, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. In a highly significant return to the vocabulary of the early days of the Islamic Revolution, the former Revolutionary Guard member labeled the United States the "Great Satan" for its attack on the wedding on Tuesday, drawing comparisons to other strikes, such as the one on a school in Minab on the first day of the war, which claimed dozens of young schoolgirls as victims. He even took a swipe at the Israelis, claiming that this Great Satan is shielding a "lesser" one. The Israelis, who are not directly targeted in these latest strikes against Iran, nonetheless made their voice heard on Wednesday. Defense Minister Israel Katz hinted that the Israeli state has intelligence suggesting Iran is preparing to attack its territory. He assured that fighter jets are ready to scramble at the slightest Iranian provocation. Xi's "foreign interference" In any case, the war of words is at its peak. While the Revolutionary Guards warn their attackers of a "new strategy" aimed at "breaking the foundations of the enemy," an American official quoted by Axios has coined a new phrase to describe what the war in the Middle East has become: tanker versus tanker. Indeed, on Wednesday, U.S. armed forces targeted an Iranian oil tanker, after two vessels caught fire after striking mines. The Strait of Hormuz remains at the heart of this conflict. And the American president, who has shown a growing habit of renaming places, has proposed calling it the "Trump Strait"… Meanwhile, with diplomacy at a standstill, one visit drew considerable attention: Chinese President Xi Jinping's trip to Egypt on Wednesday, where he was received with great fanfare by his counterpart Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Mr. Xi, who had previously defended China's ties with the Islamic Republic, addressed the conflict during his visit, calling for a fight against "foreign interference" in the region—a barely veiled reference to the United States. Together with the Egyptian president, they called for "diplomatic solutions." The Chinese president also expressed his readiness to help ensure freedom of navigation in the region. An Assad lieutenant arrested in Lebanon On the other front of this war, in southern Lebanon, Israeli strikes show no sign of letting up, particularly around the strategic hill of Ali el-Taher. Once again, on Wednesday the Israeli army justified its strikes by citing a booby-trapped drone attack it attributes to Hezbollah — one of whose members was killed — with the group remaining silent, as it has been for several weeks now. Lebanon was also the scene of another development on Wednesday, signaling a rapprochement between Lebanese officials and their Syrian counterparts, and the weakening of Iran's influence in the country. Authorities arrested a former colonel from Bashar al-Assad's fallen Syrian regime, a Lebanese judicial official told AFP. He had been plotting against Syria's current authorities from Beirut. Weapons were seized from him and his accomplices. Finally, in the Palestinian territories, the situation continues to deteriorate, and Israeli statements are growing increasingly uninhibited as October's parliamentary elections approach. The Defense Minister proposed relocating the entire population out of the Gaza Strip, claiming that Israelis "are well organized to do so." Echoing those remarks, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that his army "will not withdraw" from Gaza.

The United States launched major strikes against Iran on Tuesday night for the second time in a matter of days, with CENTCOM announcing that it had "begun operations against targets belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps." U.S. President Donald Trump went so far as to threaten an even more devastating future attack: "If the failing nation of Iran retaliates against this perfectly justified attack, it will be struck again, far harder," he wrote on his Truth Social platform. Despite the American warning, Tehran in turn announced a "decisive" response, directly threatening U.S. interests: "American bases and interests in the region are being targeted by Iranian missiles and drones." The U.S. strikes began shortly after Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian called for a revival of diplomacy, which has now reached a complete standstill. Urging the United States to honor a compromise signed in June that almost immediately fell apart, he stated: "If the United States returns to its commitments under the memorandum of understanding (...), the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately take reciprocal measures." But on Fox News, President Trump quickly fired back, noting that "the deal with the Iranians isn't even worth the paper it was written on," before adding: "We gave them many chances." The Iranian president was speaking at a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia, which was also attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping — two major allies of the Islamic Republic whom Washington suspects of violating the economic and military embargo imposed on Tehran. IAEA reveals Assad regime's secret nuclear activities On a separate matter, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) revealed yesterday, in a confidential report, that Syrian authorities under Assad had been conducting undeclared nuclear activities. Infrastructure discovered in Deir Ezzor, Syria, is "consistent with that of a nuclear reactor," the IAEA stated, emphasizing that these activities carried out under Bashar al-Assad's regime had never been declared. IAEA inspectors visited two sites last month — one in Deir Ezzor and another at a second location linked to nuclear materials identified by Syria's new authorities. In addition to the "nuclear reactor under construction," the IAEA identified a factory for manufacturing nuclear fuel intended for the reactor, as well as a storage site and uranium waste. On August 18, the IAEA and Syrian authorities announced the discovery of "several tons of nuclear materials" at an "undeclared" site, described as a "legacy of the former regime" and reported in July by the Damascus authorities. In its report reviewed on Tuesday, the IAEA said it found approximately 73 tons of natural uranium, including 55 tons in the form of fuel rods, with the remainder consisting of waste. Israel acknowledged in 2018 that it had bombed the site eleven years earlier, claiming to have targeted a nuclear reactor under construction. In 2008, less than a year after the strike, U.S. officials accused Syria of having sought to build a secret nuclear reactor with North Korea's assistance, stating that Israel had destroyed it during the raid. European advisers for the Lebanese army On the local front, the European Union will launch a Lebanese army training mission in the coming months, without replacing the current United Nations mission, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas announced on Tuesday. "The ministers discussed our plans for a new EU mission to advise and train the country's armed forces, particularly in the areas of border security and maritime security," she said following a meeting of EU Defence Ministers in Wicklow, near Dublin. Israel faces threat of British sanctions It should also be noted that the United Kingdom announced on Tuesday that it would take action in the coming weeks in response to the "horrific" attacks by settlers in the occupied West Bank, a subject that is causing growing outrage across European countries. Israel, for its part, warned that it would retaliate. Alongside Israel's war in Gaza, launched in retaliation for the unprecedented Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, settler violence has intensified over the past three years. Condemning what he called "absolutely horrific acts of settler terrorism," the new British Foreign Secretary, Ed Miliband, himself from a Jewish family, promised to unveil "a comprehensive package of measures" shortly. Violence carried out by Israeli settlers in the West Bank, a territory occupied by the Israeli military since 1967, has drawn sharp criticism from European countries as well as from the United States, Israel's staunch ally.

It is a war of attrition in every sense of the word. Yet much of the time, it is being kept simmering at a low level, as was the case overnight from Sunday into Monday and in the early hours of the new week. Late Sunday evening, the U.S. military said it had detected – most likely by satellite – Islamic Revolutionary Guard militiamen preparing two rocket launchers capable of dispersing mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Shortly after the announcement, the U.S. military launched overnight raids on Revolutionary Guard positions on Larak Island, killing and wounding several people, according to sources within the Revolutionary Guards. In retaliation for the attacks, the Revolutionary Guards launched several ballistic missiles early Monday toward two U.S. bases in Jordan. The Jordanian military said it had intercepted the missiles before they reached their targets. Later Monday morning, the United Arab Emirates said it had neutralized a drone in its airspace. Some confusion prevailed around midday Monday over the location targeted by the U.S. airstrikes. Initially, U.S. sources denied that Larak Island had been targeted, saying instead that the raids had struck Kharg Island. But by Monday evening, a U.S. official confirmed that Larak had indeed been hit. In any event, President Donald Trump offered a significant clarification on Monday, saying that “the energy center of Kharg Island is being reduced to rubble.” The White House chief also said that the US military would respond to the missile attacks launched by the Revolutionary Guards early Monday. “There will be a response, and we are going to hit them hard,” President Trump said, suggesting that the U.S. retaliation could come overnight Monday. Against this backdrop, a senior U.S. official said Monday that President Trump was considering a plan to resume airstrikes against the Revolutionary Guards in an effort to prevent them from laying mines again in the Strait of Hormuz. It is worth recalling that the Trump administration recently said that the U.S. military had completed mine-clearing operations in the Strait, which would explain the Revolutionary Guards’ attempts to mine it again. To close this chapter on the Iran-U.S. war of attrition, the Revolutionary Guards said Monday that any U.S. attack on Iranian positions would be followed by a response “ten times stronger, given that there is no target in the region beyond our reach.” The threat was implicitly criticized Monday evening by the Iranian president, who said that a possible resumption of military operations would not be in Iran’s interest. Aoun in Athens On the Lebanese front, President Joseph Aoun paid an official visit to Athens on Monday, where he held talks with his Greek counterpart, Konstantinos Tasoulas, and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. President Tasoulas stressed on the occasion that talks between Lebanon and Israel would help Lebanon achieve its independence and foster an atmosphere of prosperity, in line with the implementation of Resolution 1701. On the ground, Israeli aircraft carried out four strikes late Monday afternoon on the town of Mansouri, in the Tyre district.

Ever since the United States adopted a policy of sanctions and economic pressure on Iran, negotiations between the two parties have made no progress. The visit of Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammad Abdulrahman Al Thani to Tehran on Thursday aimed to revive these talks, particularly with a view to facilitating smoother passage through the Strait of Hormuz. On Friday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi skillfully seized on the visit to make a cautious overture toward the United States. Posting a photo with the Qatari official on his X account, he accompanied it with a message stating that returning to the negotiating table "is not impossible." As expected, he attached carefully worded conditions to this statement: the United States must acknowledge that pressure is futile, must build trust with Iran, speak to it with respect (!) and recognize its rights, while honoring their commitments. A tall order — especially since the Americans are showing no signs of abandoning their economic pressure strategy in order to resume talks. On Friday, the U.S. Treasury said it had identified the networks and intermediaries used by Iran to smuggle oil exports and circumvent sanctions… "We will target any source of illicit revenue for the Iranian regime, in coordination with all U.S. government agencies and our allies," the Treasury emphasized. Furthermore, according to the news site Axios , the United States believes it has significantly weakened Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz, which has over time become the central issue in negotiations — even more important than the nuclear file or ballistic missiles. On that note, the Iranian Foreign Ministry issued a statement on Friday warning "all countries" against enforcing what it called "illegal and unjustified" U.S. sanctions against Iran, and calling for the application of "international law." The country will remain determined to counter "the joint military and economic offensive by the United States and Israel," the statement continued. Meanwhile, Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei categorically denied reports released by U.S. intelligence on Tuesday, which alleged that Tehran had hatched a plot to assassinate Barron, the youngest son of U.S. President Donald Trump. The Iranian official chose Hezbollah's television channel to denounce what he called American "lies" regarding the alleged plot to assassinate Barron Trump. It is worth noting that Iranian state television had itself broadcast this story a few days earlier, reporting a significant bounty offered for any contribution to the operation… Strikes on the outskirts of Damascus The other major story of the day is a fresh surge in tensions between Damascus and Tel Aviv, following two incidents that occurred on Thursday evening and Friday morning. The first was an Israeli incursion into Ras al-Ajraf in Syrian territory, near the Golan Heights, on Thursday evening. According to the pro-Hezbollah channel Al-Mayadeen , Israeli soldiers reportedly searched several homes in the area. The second incident took place on the outskirts of the Syrian capital Damascus on Friday morning. A correspondent for the Syrian SANA agency reported that two shells had landed in agricultural fields in the Damascus countryside, causing no casualties. Israel does not appear to be in any rush to ease tensions with Syria, despite the recent meeting in Jordan between Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani and the head of Mossad, which was intended to defuse the situation following Israeli strikes on a Syrian airport in Idlib. The raid also nearly triggered a serious escalation with Turkey, an ally of the Syrian regime. Meanwhile, Thursday proved to be a deadly day in the Palestinian territories. Israeli strikes killed three people in Gaza, including two members of the same family. Strikes in Jenin, in the northern West Bank, targeted 'several terrorists,' according to a statement from the Israeli military. Haykal meets with French chargé d'affaires Southern Lebanon, meanwhile, continues to be rocked by explosions and Israeli bombardments. The Israeli military is increasingly conducting incursions into Lebanese territory, notably to carry out searches or blow up houses. The destruction appears to be intensifying, particularly in certain towns such as Nabatieh and Mansouri, in the Tyre area. With no new prospects emerging from the direct negotiations being conducted by Lebanese authorities with Israel under American sponsorship, France's role is once again beginning to reassert itself on the Lebanese scene. Lebanese Armed Forces Commander Rodolphe Haykal met on Friday with French chargé d'affaires Bruno Da Silva, ahead of a conference expected to be held in Paris in support of the Lebanese army. A preparatory meeting is expected to take place in the French capital on September 17, and General Haykal is expected to attend. Shortly before the French diplomat's visit, the army chief had been received by President of the Republic Joseph Aoun at Baabda.

In Damascus, Tuesday evening's announcement by the leader of the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) of the group's dissolution and the integration of its fighters into the Syrian army remains a landmark event due to its highly symbolic significance. It speaks to President Ahmad al-Sharaa's determination to rebuild a state capable of embracing all Syrian communities and ethnic groups — some of which, like the Kurds, had eventually developed their own institutions. This is precisely what the Turkish presidency noted on Wednesday, stating that "at this stage, the dissolution of the SDF represents an important step toward stability in Syria." Neighboring Lebanon, meanwhile, continues to wrestle with its own contradictions. On one hand, the official discourse reflects — proportions kept in mind — what Ahmad al-Sharaa is doing in his own country. On the other, the reality on the ground continues to assert itself forcefully, standing as an obstacle to any progress toward Lebanon becoming a genuine state in the true sense of the word. By continually trying to accommodate this reality — which can be summed up by the influence of the Amal-Hezbollah tandem, hostile to any change to a destructive status quo that has persisted for decades — and by banking on the passage of time, official Lebanon is missing one opportunity after another. The question of Hezbollah's disarmament remains one of the main obstacles to rebuilding the state. President Joseph Aoun continues to advocate for direct negotiations with Israel as the only way, he said Wednesday, to avoid another war with Israel, allow the army to reassert control over the territory, secure the release of Lebanese prisoners held by Israel, and rebuild southern Lebanon. On Wednesday, he acknowledged that these talks are running into obstacles, though he did not elaborate on the matter. It was U.S. Ambassador to Beirut Michel Issa who was more forthcoming. Speaking after a meeting with the Grand Mufti of the Republic, Abdel Latif Deriane, the diplomat stated plainly that no agreement capable of ending the hostilities could be reached as long as Hezbollah did not surrender its weapons. Michel Issa questioned "why Israel should be asked to do everything while Hezbollah does nothing," expressing surprise that the Lebanese state was piling demands on Israel while refraining from asking Hezbollah to hand over its arms. This is the main obstacle to resuming bilateral negotiations, with the eighth round expected to take place in early September — a date that had yet to be confirmed and still has not been. The American ambassador remained vague on the subject, saying only that technical discussions take place whenever an issue arises. He noted delays in implementing what had been agreed upon during previous rounds of diplomatic and military negotiations. Meanwhile, as the Lebanese army continues to seize weapons likely destined for Hezbollah at the Lebanese-Syrian border, the Israeli army is pressing ahead with its operations in southern Lebanon. It announced Wednesday on its X account that it had destroyed more than 400 "terrorist" infrastructures over the past several weeks and seized large quantities of weapons and military equipment. Military threats and economic pressure On the U.S.-Iran front, the confrontation continues through an exchange of threats and economic pressure. That pressure is beginning to show results, as evidenced by the continued collapse of the Iranian rial and the long lines forming at gas stations across Iranian cities. Iranian authorities continue to insist, however, that they are fully prepared to weather the situation, despite the economic difficulties acknowledged by President Masoud Pezeshkian. Tehran thus claims to have rebuilt its military capabilities following the conflict, "thanks to the arrival of new systems from the defense industry, the army, and some also imported from abroad," according to its army spokesman, Mohammad Akraminia. Four power plants are also said to have been rebuilt. On the economic front, President Pezeshkian continues to advocate for "dialogue and negotiation," while insisting that Washington will gain "nothing" through its unprecedented new economic pressure. The United States, for its part, appears intent on maintaining the unprecedented economic D-Day until after the U.S. midterm elections in early November, according to senior American officials cited by AFP, which is relaying Israel's Channel 12. According to the same channel, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly outlined two objectives on which the United States plans to focus in the coming months: increasing economic pressure on Iran and normalizing the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, in order to restore oil traffic through this strategic waterway. On this subject, President Donald Trump, who reaffirmed on Wednesday that Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is not dead but "gravely wounded," stated that "all mines had been removed and/or destroyed in the international waters of Hormuz." On his social network, Truth Social, he also announced that the strait "was under American control" — a claim Tehran has denied — and threatened Oman with bombardment should the sultanate "get in the way" of the United States' path through Hormuz, currently Tehran's only remaining point of leverage. On Wednesday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced "certain agreements" with Oman regarding the management of the strait, "concerning each country's share of the strait's waters and Iran and Oman's respective shares of its revenues," according to their spokesman, Hossein Mohebi. The CIA Director in Moscow Also at the center of Wednesday's news was a rare visit by the CIA director to Moscow on Tuesday. Donald Trump, however, downplayed its significance, describing it as "semi-routine." He stated, during an interview, that the trip was linked neither to Iran nor to Russian threats against NATO. According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, it falls within the framework of "exchanges between intelligence services." It remains the case that Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to meet with his Iranian counterpart next week, on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan.

The Israeli state appears determined to counter Turkish ambitions in Syria, drawing a lukewarm response from Washington. On Iran, the United States is now favoring a strategy of economic strangulation. In Lebanon, Hezbollah is facing increasing U.S. pressure. In the Middle East, the major development of the week of August 17–23 was the standoff between Israel and Turkey in Syria. The affair began on Tuesday with a strike on the Abu al-Duhur airport in the province of Idlib, in southwestern Syria — out of service since the start of the Syrian war, but home to a presence of the new Syrian army under Ahmad al-Sharaa's authority. The eight strikes immediately drew condemnation from the Syrian government, which blamed Israel. A statement from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights provided an initial clue as to the cause of the raids: Turkish troops had deployed to the site shortly before the strikes, with the aim of rehabilitating the damaged facility. Israel's claim of responsibility came only two days later, from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said he had sent a "clear" message to both Syria and Turkey. He accused Ankara of seeking to establish a foothold on Syrian soil by setting up a base at Abu al-Duhur. Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir underscored the point by visiting Israeli forces stationed in southern Syria and asserting that his country would not tolerate any hostile presence along its borders. A new Israeli strike on Syrian territory took place on Saturday, near the occupied Golan Heights. Also on Saturday, an Israeli drone targeted a vehicle in southwestern Syria. Syria denounced the attacks as violations of its sovereignty and called for a UN condemnation. The Israeli-Turkish escalation continued to intensify throughout the week. While denying any military presence on Syrian soil, Turkey declared it would not "fall into the trap" set by Prime Minister Netanyahu by being drawn into an armed conflict — a statement that suggests a ceiling to this escalation. Yet the verbal hostilities continued to escalate, bringing the deep animosity between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Netanyahu into full public view. As Israelis branded him an "antisemitic dictator," Erdoğan ultimately issued an "international arrest warrant" against Netanyahu for war "crimes" in connection with the crackdown on the Gaza Flotilla, which the Israeli military had intercepted in May to prevent it from reaching the Gaza Strip. Israeli-Syrian meeting in Amman With this direct Israeli strike on Syrian territory, the Jewish state has significantly complicated an already highly complex regional situation. Its Turkish adversary has just signed a mutual defense agreement with two other Sunni powers, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Moreover, Turkey maintains friendly relations with the United States: at the NATO summit held in Turkey a few weeks ago, U.S. President Donald Trump spoke of Erdoğan in glowing terms. This would help explain the less-than-enthusiastic reaction from Trump's envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, who described the Israeli strike as "unnecessary escalation." Barrack also suggested that the Israeli escalation was a "political maneuver" by Netanyahu, with critical elections in Israel just weeks away in which the Likud leader's political survival is at stake. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz hit back on Saturday, insisting that he had shared "intelligence with the United States" ahead of the strike, and accusing Barrack of making statements "full of inaccuracies and positions that contradict" President Trump's own line. Indeed, a confrontation between two giants would have unpredictable consequences, so why would Israel take that risk? Netanyahu's electoral ambitions may offer part of the answer, but they are not sufficient on their own. Israeli officials have used phrases such as "Turkey's attempts to destabilize the region" and a desire to "prevent Turkish entrenchment," which seem to suggest they fear that Turkey could fill the vacuum left by a retreat of Iranian influence over the Levant. It is worth noting in this regard that this explosive issue was at the center of a meeting held Sunday in Amman between Syrian Foreign Minister Assaad al-Shaibani and the new Mossad director, Roman Gofman. The talks aimed to defuse tensions between Syria and Israel following the strike on Abu al-Duhur airport. This Israeli-Syrian meeting came after a recent statement by Minister Shaibani, who announced the imminent resumption of negotiations between Damascus and Tel Aviv aimed at finalizing a security agreement between the two countries. The broad outlines of this agreement had been agreed upon earlier this year. Trump's economic war On the Iranian front, it appears that the American decision to replace military escalation with economic pressure — or even an economic war — remains in effect. New U.S. sanctions against Iran are being considered, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to hold a press conference on the matter on Monday. Economic pressure on Iran dominated statements from both sides this week. President Trump explicitly announced "total economic war" against Iran, warning "any country, airport, company, financial institution, or government entity" that offers a "lifeline" to the Iranian regime. Iran's response was to label the economic pressure and sanctions threats as "economic terrorism." Iran also resorted to threats against any country that participates in economic restrictions against it, through the voice of the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei. What further deepened Iran's economic isolation this week was the decision by the United Arab Emirates to sever all ties with Tehran, following an unclaimed missile strike. The UAE is a critical partner for Iran, but the Gulf state has markedly accelerated its alignment with Israel and the United States during this war. This week also marked the end of the 60-day deadline set out in the Islamabad agreement, signed by Washington and Tehran in June to reach a final deal. President Trump himself announced that no further discussions are taking place, urging Iran to "surrender" and declaring once again — with an enigmatic smirk — that the Strait of Hormuz is "American territory." The U.S. president also suggested there are no longer any viable interlocutors in Iran. On the Iranian side, despite the ferocity of the verbal attacks, reports of genuine economic and social suffocation are multiplying, as are reports of repression by the authorities through summary executions of opponents, teenagers, and young university students in particular. Could this be what prompted Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's statement at the end of the week, suggesting it is time to end the war with the United States? This moderate Iranian voice was careful, of course, to placate the hardliners by adding that Tehran should consider this possibility "as long as it is in a position of strength." Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf, for his part, defied the United States by announcing on Saturday "new security and economic cooperation arrangements" with neighboring countries, which he pointedly refrained from naming. The former Revolutionary Guard commander visited Iraq this week, as that country makes clear its determination to disarm all illegal factions — primarily pro-Iranian ones — by September 30. Yet another sign of Iran's waning influence in the region? Sanctions against Hezbollah Reports of upcoming U.S. sanctions against Iran were preceded this week by sanctions targeting individuals suspected of financing Hezbollah in Lebanon, with the United States making clear that these measures stem from the Shia party's ties to Iran's Revolutionary Guards. They came in the wake of remarks by Edward Gabriel, president of the American Task Force for Lebanon (ATFL), during a visit to Beirut, in which he stated — in response to a journalist's question — that President Trump would be open to engaging with Hezbollah, but that the group does not appear to be "ready" to do so.

Relations between Turkey and Israel have hit rock bottom: three days after an Israeli airstrike on a disused base in northwestern Syria — which Israel suspects Ankara intends to use — two new offensives, this time verbal, have accelerated the deterioration of ties between the two Eastern Mediterranean powers. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office on Friday called Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan an "antisemitic dictator," stating that Israel would act against "Turkey's attempts to destabilize the region." "We will not tolerate Turkish military entrenchment advancing southward, as it poses a threat to us," Netanyahu had said on Wednesday, while Turkey denies any presence at the bombed Syrian site. "Israel has long since stopped being impressed by Turkey's hypocrisy. Erdogan is an antisemitic dictator who has massacred Kurds, supported the massacre carried out by the terrorist organization Hamas, and oppressed his own people," Netanyahu's office said in a statement. In a separate statement released Friday, Netanyahu's office accused the Turkish president of seeking to "extend his aggression against Israel into Syria." Ankara warned on Thursday that it would "resolutely" continue to protect Syria's territorial integrity and sovereignty. However, the Turkish presidency was quick to clarify that it had no plans to retaliate and that Ankara would not fall "into the trap" set by the Israeli Prime Minister. But Turkey drove the point home on Friday by issuing an international "arrest warrant" for the Israeli Prime Minister, as part of an investigation into the brutal and humiliating interception of the "Gaza Flotilla" and the detention of the activists on board. Red notices Turkey's Justice Minister said he intended to "issue red notices for the international arrest" of Netanyahu on charges of "crimes against humanity, genocide, aggravated deprivation of liberty, assault and battery, torture, destruction of property, aggravated looting, and hijacking of transport vehicles," the ministry specified. The roughly 430 crew members aboard the approximately fifty vessels boarded by the Israeli military in the Mediterranean, west of Cyprus, had been forcibly brought to Israel, then detained before being deported in May. Israeli (far-right) National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir shared footage showing dozens of flotilla participants kneeling with their hands bound. They were forced to crawl on all fours and ordered to say "Long live Israel" on camera, while speakers blared the Israeli national anthem. The release of the video sparked an international diplomatic uproar and drew condemnations from several foreign governments, as well as criticism from within Israel's own government. Once a reliable ally of the Jewish state, Turkey has become one of Israel's main adversaries since Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Islamist-conservative party came to power. Beyond the personal animosity between the two leaders, Erdogan positions himself both as protector of Syria's new Sunni administration and as a standard-bearer of Islam against the Zionist enemy. Recently, the Turkish president announced his country's participation in the "Mecca Alliance," a mutual defense pact between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan. Pezeshkian seeks "a dignified way out" On the Iranian front, President Massoud Pezeshkian said Friday that it was time to end the standoff with the United States, with Tehran in his view "in a position of strength and dignity" vis-à-vis Washington, which seeks to impose a new "economic war." "The whole world recognizes our victory and points out that the United States attacked our schools, our hospitals, and our infrastructure in violation of all the rules," he added. "They are despised around the world." The Iranian president also defended the conclusion, in June, of a memorandum of understanding with the United States aimed at finding a way out of the conflict, lashing out at critics who would see it as a sign of Iranian weakness. "They will not find a single clause in this agreement that indicates a surrender; all the commitments concern the other party," he assured. Pezeshkian's statements — he holds what is theoretically the highest position within the official state structure — come on the heels of several other signs pointing to the power struggle between him and the regime's "hardline" camp, embodied by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who commands the ideological army of the Revolutionary Guards. Khamenei had hinted at reservations about the agreement. "I had a different opinion, but I gave my authorization," he had said.

As the Iranian mullah regime continues its relentless near-daily hangings of Iranian teenagers and young people — most of them schoolchildren and university students — from cranes, the Trump Administration has effectively declared an all-out economic war against the Islamic Republic, as President Donald Trump stated unequivocally in the early hours of Thursday. At a press briefing, the White House chief announced that the United States would shortly impose 'unprecedented' economic sanctions designed to completely isolate Iran economically. Later on Thursday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent — now a sworn enemy of the mullah regime — was even more explicit, stressing that 'Iran will face the most severe sanctions ever imposed on any country,' and adding that U.S. authorities will take measures against any country that continues to maintain trade relations with Iran. But the most fundamental point raised by Scott Bessent — one of highly strategic significance — concerned the fate of the Islamic Republic in the shadow of this economic war. 'The Iranian regime will collapse; we will bring down the Iranian regime,' the Treasury Secretary declared. Oil exports halted This is arguably the first time a senior American official has stated so clearly and explicitly the U.S. Administration's intention to simply and straightforwardly topple the mullah regime. Until now, senior officials in Washington had emphasized that their goal was to achieve 'a change in the regime's behavior, not regime change.' Next Monday, Mr. Bessent is expected to hold a press conference to announce in explicit detail the sanctions to be imposed on the Islamic Republic. But even before the new measures on the horizon are formally announced, Iran's socioeconomic and financial situation is already teetering on the brink of total collapse. The Governor of the Iranian Central Bank, Nasser Hemmati, acknowledged on Thursday — arguably for the first time — that Iranian oil exports have been completely halted. 'We are no longer exporting any oil whatsoever, and the other problem we face is our inability to access our financial resources,' the Governor stated. Against this explosive backdrop, Lebanese Shia opposition circles, drawing on information from Tehran, indicate that stirrings of discontent are beginning to emerge in certain segments of the population, while the impact of American sanctions and the naval blockade is increasingly translating into a growing paralysis of the state's administrative apparatus. This situation is further compounded, the aforementioned circles assert, by deep divisions and power struggles within the ruling establishment. Hezbollah: 'a terrorist organization under the command of the Revolutionary Guards' In the wake of this American escalation against the regime — which on Thursday evening condemned Washington's 'economic terrorism' — the U.S. Administration simultaneously launched a serious escalation in its campaign against Hezbollah. The Treasury Department announced that the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has re-listed Hezbollah as a terrorist organization operating under the direct command of the 'Jerusalem Brigade' of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This effectively implies that Hezbollah is regarded as an Iranian organization rather than a Lebanese one. In this context, OFAC has imposed sanctions on around ten individuals linked to Hezbollah and the Revolutionary Guards. They are accused of covertly funneling hundreds of millions of dollars to Hezbollah from Turkey through commercial flights. Joseph Aoun received by the Pope On the ground in Lebanon, attention is primarily focused on the extensive underground military fortifications at Ali el-Taher (in the Nabatieh region), where, according to a Hezbollah source cited Thursday evening by Al-Hadath, around a hundred Shia militants and senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard officers are holed up, besieged by the Israeli army, which is tightening its grip daily. Israel's objective is to carry out gradual encroachment operations in order to trigger the collapse of the tunnels and infrastructure built by the Iranians over several years. The aforementioned Hezbollah source emphasizes that the Ali el-Taher fortifications represent for the Shia party not only a strategic military asset, but above all carry a 'particular moral significance.' As a result, the source notes that Hezbollah would rather see the Israeli army simply destroy this infrastructure outright than have it handed over to the Lebanese army, as some local circles had suggested. Finally, in this broader context, President Joseph Aoun was received early Thursday morning by Pope Leo XIV. On this occasion, the head of state urged the Supreme Pontiff to continue his efforts with international bodies to 'pressure Israel into complying with the provisions of the framework agreement' signed last June by Lebanon and Israel under US auspices. The Vatican has expressed its support for this framework agreement, which outlines the process approved by both Beirut and Tel Aviv to achieve a situation that would permanently put an end to the state of war between Lebanon and Israel.