From Iraq to Lebanon, the battle for the monopoly on weapons has begun
Uncertainty persisted at the start of the week over when technical talks between Tehran and Washington would resume, after both sides agreed last Tuesday in Switzerland to establish four working groups dedicated to sanctions relief, nuclear issues, and reconstruction.
Strained by the military standoff over the Strait of Hormuz — where Iran is seeking to impose total control — and Tehran's refusal to allow IAEA inspectors access to its nuclear sites, talks between the two capitals have nonetheless not broken down, according to multiple corroborating sources cited by AFP and American media outlets.
On Monday, President Donald Trump announced on his social media platform, Truth Social, that Iranian officials had requested a follow-up meeting and that it was set to take place on Tuesday in Doha.
That announcement was quickly denied by Tehran, which stated that no meeting or technical working group session was planned for this week in Qatar.
The White House, however, confirmed that the two American negotiators, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, are expected to travel to Qatar "for high-level meetings," though no date was given.
According to the American news site Axios, they would be in Doha on Tuesday for talks with Qatari officials.
On Wednesday, the American and Iranian technical delegations tasked with implementing the memorandum of understanding signed on June 18 are each set to meet separately with Qatari and Pakistani mediators, Axios reported.
A diplomat described by AFP as being close to the matter confirmed to the French news agency that communication channels between the two countries remain open — meaning in practical terms that the mediation, jointly led by Qatar and Pakistan, has resumed following the recent escalation of tensions and exchange of threats between the two sides.
On Monday, calm had been restored on the US-Iran front: the exchange of threats that had flared up following Iranian attacks late last week on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz had ceased, as had Iranian drone strikes and American counterstrikes.
This calm appears to have been reached by mutual agreement, as a US official announced Sunday evening a suspension of mutual attacks in order to allow technical discussions to continue and to maintain freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
However, the situation is far from resolved, with Tehran remaining intransigent over its self-proclaimed right to control this strategic maritime chokepoint.
The Islamic Republic had counted on the cooperation of the Sultanate of Oman to set a precedent in violation of international maritime law, but was quickly disappointed.
Muscat reaffirmed on Monday that it will take no action contrary to that law, but that it remains willing to discuss with Tehran the possibility of fees being imposed in exchange for guaranteed services.
Monopoly on arms in Iraq — what about Lebanon?
Still at the regional level, another development deserves attention due to its strategic significance. The Iraqi government has given pro-Iranian armed factions a three-month deadline to hand over their weapons — a deadline that expires on September 30.
The announcement comes as Iraq's new Prime Minister, Ali al-Zaidi, is expected to visit the United States, which has long called for the disarmament of these factions, and in the wake of an unprecedented crackdown within Iraqi political circles.
At least 200 people — including numerous members of parliament, former ministers, and businessmen — were detained as part of an operation conducted under the banner of the fight against corruption.
Tens of millions of dollars were seized from certain residences.
These two operations reflect the determination of Iraq's leadership to break free from the influence of the Islamic Republic, which has not responded to the announcement.
They cannot be separated from the broader transformation process the region has been undergoing since the Israeli-American military operation against Iran.
At the political level, Iraq and Lebanon share many similarities, particularly regarding Iranian influence and its destabilizing effect on both countries. The key difference between them, however, lies in the capacity and willingness to act: in Iraq, the decision to curb the grip of armed factions has translated into concrete measures, whereas in Lebanon, the same decision taken in August 2025 continues to meet with reluctance over its implementation.
It remains unclear and is now contingent on a set of measures outlined in the framework agreement reached last week between Beirut and Tel Aviv in Washington.
The first phase of this agreement calls for an Israeli withdrawal from 'pilot zones' in southern Lebanon — a withdrawal that has yet to take place.
The arrival in Beirut of CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper — who held talks with Army Commander General Rodolphe Haykal and President Joseph Aoun focused on preparations for implementing the document signed in Washington — signals the beginning of this process.
Israel also appears to be preparing for gradual, partial withdrawals up to the Blue Line, as evidenced by the large-scale demolition of Hezbollah tunnels in Majdal Zoun and the destruction of homes in other villages, including Haddatha.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz reiterated on Monday that his country will not withdraw from Lebanon as long as Hezbollah remains armed, while the pro-Iranian group flatly refuses to give up its weapons.
While the tension that manifested on the ground through protests among Hezbollah's base following the signing of the Lebanese-Israeli agreement has eased somewhat on the political front, it remains very much alive.
Militia leaders continue to warn against any attempt at disarmament, repeatedly reaffirming their determination to resist the diplomatic process underway between Beirut and Tel Aviv.
For now, however, calm prevails. The Amal-Hezbollah tandem is not considering an escalation, at least 'for the time being.'
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berry, who is also opposed to the Lebanese-Israeli agreement, expressed his commitment to the country's stability and the preservation of calm during a phone call with Prime Minister Nawaf Salam.
Through one of its officials, Mahmoud Qomati, Hezbollah indicated that it does not currently plan to withdraw its ministers from the government, even as it claimed that 'Hezbollah has the means to bring it down.'
WLCU welcomes the agreement
Despite these dissenting voices — all moving within the same orbit — and the reservations expressed by certain politicians, including Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, regarding specific provisions of the Lebanese-Israeli document, the framework agreement enjoys broad consensus insofar as it removes Lebanon from Iranian influence and would prevent southern Lebanon from continuing to serve as an echo chamber for regional conflicts.
The World Lebanese Cultural Union (WLCU), the main body representing Lebanese diaspora communities, welcomed the agreement on Monday, stating in a communiqué signed by its president, Fares Wehbe, that the process initiated by the Lebanese authorities 'is in keeping with the Head of State's inaugural address and with the government's decisions aimed at restoring to the State, exclusively, the authority to decide on war and peace.'
For the WLCU, as Farès Wehbé emphasizes, this process is a "first step toward restoring Lebanon's full sovereignty over its entire national territory" and it "reconnects with the tradition of bold Lebanese diplomacy that existed in the aftermath of independence, before the power to decide war and peace was stripped from state authority."
"For the first time in several decades, the country is negotiating in its own name and in the interest of its nation," Mr. Wehbé notes, adding that "Lebanese people, both at home and around the world, are longing to rediscover a normal Lebanon — one where culture, the arts, life, and joy will once again take precedence over the language of arms."
The WLCU president also expressed his commitment to supporting the president and government in this endeavor, while calling on the Lebanese people "to remain vigilant and to thwart any attempt to sow chaos, especially given that certain armed factions, tied to a deeply entrenched system of corruption within the deep state, have a vested interest in keeping the arms issue under the sway of regional power dynamics."
"What has been achieved must now be preserved through serious and sustained commitment, not celebrated as an end in itself," the WLCU statement emphasizes, reaffirming that "the independence Lebanon aspires to must be complete and definitive."