Economy

Debt is taking the blame. We watch trillions pile up in the United States, France, Italy and elsewhere in Europe, and wonder how far it can go. But debt is not the disease. It is the symptom. The disease is a budget deficit that has become permanent. We need to go back to Keynes. John Maynard Keynes never envisioned deficits as a normal, permanent feature of government. His thinking was rooted above all in the economic cycle. When the economy collapses, private investment dries up, unemployment rises, and fear paralyzes businesses and households, the state must step in. It spends, invests and accepts a temporary deficit. Monetary policy can also become more accommodative.

The latest increase in France’s debt illustrates a pressure shared by several major economies: borrowing is piling up while financing it is becoming more expensive. From deficits to interest rates, twelve questions to understand a phenomenon that is weighing on public budgets and citizens alike. France has crossed a new threshold. According to figures published by INSEE on September 29, its public debt stood at €3,595.5 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2026, equivalent to 119% of gross domestic product (GDP). It increased by €59.6 billion in three months. The government expects it to reach 121.7% of GDP in 2027.

As this is being written, Lebanon is at war again. Since March 2, 2026, large-scale exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah have resumed, extending a cycle of violence that began in October 2023 and never truly ended despite the November 2024 ceasefire. The war has cost more than 4,000 lives, displaced over a million Lebanese – more than a fifth of the population – and destroyed entire cities, villages and homes, some of them centuries old and irreplaceable. The International Monetary Fund now expects Lebanon’s GDP to contract by 12% to 16% in 2026, driven mainly by the collapse of tourism and the paralysis of economic activity in border regions.

On June 12, 2026, financial markets around the world witnessed a moment of history unfolding in real time. Just hours after its IPO, SpaceX crossed the symbolic threshold of a $2 trillion market capitalization, making it the largest initial public offering ever completed. Its founder, Elon Musk, simultaneously became the first individual in human history to see his personal net worth surpass one trillion dollars. Unsurprisingly, Wall Street immediately split into two camps. For some, this valuation represents the ultimate expression of the speculative excess of our era: a market intoxicated by technology, artificial intelligence, and boundless growth narratives.

Israeli statements hinting at a possible challenge to the maritime border agreement with Lebanon have revived questions about the durability of a compromise that, since its signing in 2022, has been portrayed as a stabilizing mechanism between Beirut and Tel Aviv. Despite the devastating war into which Hezbollah drew Lebanon, the agreement has held firm. Yet as the regional landscape undergoes profound change – particularly amid the energy crisis triggered by the Iran-U.S. standoff over the Strait of Hormuz – questions about its long-term survival are resurfacing. For Laury Haytayan, a Middle East hydrocarbons governance expert and MENA director at the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI), “Israeli threats amount more to political pressure than to a genuine strategy aimed at dismantling the agreement.” She considers it “unlikely that the maritime agreement will be revoked,” even as Lebanon is currently engaged in direct peace negotiations with Israel and similar initiatives are expected between Arab states and Israel under the Abraham Accords framework, with the same American backing. Such a move would, moreover, be “incoherent” with the opening of direct negotiations, particularly given Washington’s pivotal role in securing the 2022 agreement, the product of two years of mediation.

Major economic crises almost never happen without warning. Long before markets collapse or economies contract, warning signs discreetly accumulate beneath the surface: financial excesses grow, geopolitical tensions escalate, technological disruptions accelerate, and the architecture of the global economy becomes increasingly fragile. For several years, many of these signs have been visible worldwide. Stock markets have reached historically high valuation levels. Public debt has reached unprecedented levels. Artificial intelligence is transforming industries at dizzying speed. And geopolitical tensions are beginning to disrupt some of the most vital arteries of global trade and energy.

On April 2, 2025, standing in the White House Rose Garden, President Donald Trump declared what he called “Liberation Day.” By signing Executive Order 14257 under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the administration imposed sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” on foreign imports. The justification was expansive: the persistent U.S. trade deficit—exceeding $1.2 trillion annually—was declared a national emergency. Blanket tariffs were applied to nearly all trading partners, with rates reaching as high as 50 percent. The objective was explicit: compel bilateral negotiations, extract investment commitments, and accelerate industrial reshoring.

What maritime policy could – or should – Lebanon pursue as part of its development efforts? And what role might the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM), which succeeded the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership initiated in Barcelona, play in this context? The Union for the Mediterranean has essentially adopted a “land-based” framework. Whether through political and security cooperation aimed at establishing a common area of peace and stability, economic and financial collaboration to build a zone of shared prosperity, or cultural and social initiatives to foster understanding between cultures and exchanges among civil societies, the ultimate goal remains the creation of a shared prosperity area within a Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade Area (EMFTA). All of this unites the land.

Thanks to multilateral cooperation projects initiated within the global framework of the Union for the Mediterranean, could Lebanon become what it deserves to be, a maritime Lebanon? The question requires deep reflection and an exhaustive vision of the situation in which the country struggles in this regard… « For the French, the sea is what they have at their backs when they look at the beach » (Eric Tabarly). France is a maritime state that it misunderstands. The translation of this specificity into a political and budgetary reality is weak. Replace France with Lebanon. It is a maritime state - its history is there - which has not yet made the necessary political and institutional choice. Unifying maritime projects would sustainably bring together all communities. It has the assets. The « common good » would be « the » beneficiary.

In the first part, we examined the evolution of Bitcoin from its inception to its current collapse. In this part, we detail the alternatives and the role of public authorities. Stablecoins: from retail convenience to systemic risk If Bitcoin is crypto’s flagship, stablecoins are its bloodstream. Stablecoins began as a simple tool: a way for retail traders to move between crypto and “dollars” without leaving the ecosystem. They promised stability in a volatile world. But stablecoins evolved. And today, they represent one of the most important—and underappreciated—systemic vulnerabilities in digital finance.