The Lebanese-Israeli framework agreement signed in Washington: Iran Out

After nearly two months of direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, a 'framework agreement' between the two countries was signed on Saturday evening (Beirut time), on the fourth day of the fifth round of talks held at the State Department in Washington, under the supervision of Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

The ceremony took place in the presence of Mr. Rubio and negotiators from both countries, including, on the Lebanese side, former Lebanese Ambassador to Washington Simon Karam and U.S. Ambassador to Beirut Michel Issa.

The document was signed by Lebanon's Ambassador to the United States, Nada Hamadé Moawad, and Israel's Ambassador, Yechiel Leiter, both of whom delivered brief remarks, thanking the Trump Administration for its efforts and highlighting the significance of the occasion.

This framework agreement marks the first official diplomatic act concluded between Lebanon and Israel since the signing of the (aborted) May 17 Accord in 1983. This outcome of five rounds of negotiations represents, it should be noted, a first step that will be followed by future, lengthy negotiations aimed at securing a full Israeli withdrawal from South Lebanon, alongside a process of Hezbollah disarmament.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated on Saturday evening that this first step will pave the way for further agreements, with the ultimate goal — as Ambassador Leiter noted on Saturday evening — being a future peace agreement between the two countries.

In practical terms, the document calls for the immediate establishment of two 'pilot zones,' one of which is located north of the Litani River, where the Lebanese army will be required to deploy in order to prevent any militia presence in those areas.

An Israeli source indicated late in the evening that the army deployment will take place with direct American support, which could translate into the provision of U.S. military advisors.

This is therefore a starting point that will be followed by further steps, progressively leading to an Israeli withdrawal as local regular forces deploy and Hezbollah is disarmed.

In this regard, on the instructions of President Joseph Aoun, the Lebanese delegation insisted that the framework agreement explicitly mention the necessity of a 'full withdrawal' of Israeli forces from South Lebanon.

Regarding the scope of this agreement, the Israeli Prime Minister's office stated on Saturday evening that 'the Hezbollah disarmament process provided for in the document will be implemented both south and north of the Litani River.'

Above all, however, it is the geopolitical significance of this framework agreement that is drawing the attention of analysts and political circles in Lebanon.

The document effectively enshrines the sidelining of Iran from the process of resolving the Lebanese crisis and the South Lebanon issue. In recent weeks, the mullahs' regime spared no effort in trying to secure a direct Iranian role in efforts to find a way out of the Lebanese conflict, particularly in the South.

During recent negotiations between the Trump Administration and the Islamic Republic, Iranian leaders had set the complete halt of Israeli military operations in the South as a precondition for any agreement with Washington.

This insistence barely concealed Tehran's desire to carve out a prominent role for itself in any political resolution process in Lebanon.

This role, claimed by the Revolutionary Guards, appeared to have been acknowledged during U.S.-Iranian discussions that began this week in Switzerland under the supervision of U.S. Vice President JD Vance.

Those talks had resulted in an understanding aimed at including Iran in a process to oversee the situation in South Lebanon.

However, the Washington framework agreement signed Saturday evening rules out any involvement of the Islamic Republic — and by extension Hezbollah — thereby confining peacemaking efforts and the restoration of Lebanese security and sovereignty strictly to a Lebanese-Israeli framework under exclusive American supervision.

This explains Hezbollah's swift reaction late Saturday evening. Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah reverted to the familiar refrain of a "civil war" threat, claiming that the Washington agreement is designed to undermine the Islamabad process — which is clearly aimed at reviving Iran's dominant regional role, particularly in Lebanon.

On the political reaction front, the Secretary of State declared late Saturday evening that this framework agreement "lays the groundwork for a clearly defined process aimed at restoring Lebanon's sovereignty, disarming Hezbollah, and dismantling its infrastructure."

President Joseph Aoun, for his part, emphasized that the goal is "the establishment of exclusive Lebanese state sovereignty over its territory." "There must no longer be any question of occupation, dependency, or guardianship," he said, in a barely veiled allusion to Iran's attempts to impose its hegemony over the Lebanese political scene.

Military escalation, Hormuz, and Ali al-Taher

On the military operations front, it is worth noting that the conclusion of the Washington framework agreement was preceded by the Israeli army's announcement, earlier in the afternoon, of its "full control over the Ali al-Taher hill," whose strategic importance is undeniable. "We now have complete control over the Ali al-Taher hill, and as a result Hezbollah has lost the stronghold from which it threatened Israeli territory," the Israeli military command stated.

The capture of the Ali al-Taher hill carries not only military significance but also represents a fundamental geopolitical gain for Israel.

The underground network beneath this area was transformed by the Revolutionary Guards into an extensive system of tunnels and infrastructure, including well-equipped command rooms and large warehouses storing missiles and various munitions.

Dozens of Hezbollah militants and, most notably, several senior officers and commanders from the Revolutionary Guards are now reportedly trapped inside these tunnels with no way out following the Israeli army's seizure of the area.

This development prompted an Israeli military source to assert that full Israeli control over Ali al-Taher "marks the end of Iran's and Hezbollah's role" in the region.

Nevertheless, the pro-Iranian party flatly denied late Saturday evening that the hill had fallen into Israeli hands.

On the broader regional front, President Donald Trump accused the Islamic Republic of violating the ceasefire agreement, stating that Iran had launched four drones toward vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Three of those drones were shot down in the area by U.S. forces, the American president noted, adding that the fourth drone struck the upper section of a large commercial vessel head-on, causing significant damage.

In this context, an Iranian media outlet reported Saturday that "a direct line of communication had been established between the Americans and Iranians to prevent any incidents in the Strait of Hormuz."

This claim was subsequently categorically denied by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Shortly before midnight, the US military announced that it had carried out strikes against Iranian targets in the Strait area. The military command specified that US aircraft had launched raids against missile and drone storage facilities and radar stations, in retaliation for the Iranian attack on the merchant vessel.