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Mecca Pact: a Response to Regional Challenges (1/4)
By
Khalil Helou
Published
Sep 3, 2026 - 11:39

This first article in a four-part series on the Mecca Pact explores how Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan converged and crossed a major strategic threshold by signing the Mecca Pact on August 7, 2026. Born out of rising regional tensions and the erosion of American security guarantees, this collective defense agreement could mark the emergence of a new autonomous security architecture at the heart of the Sunni world. Mecca is, without question, a highly symbolic venue for the signing of a pact. On August 7, 2026, the Al-Safa Palace in Mecca became the stage for a historic event whose shockwaves are reshaping regional and Asian geopolitics. Beneath the ceilings of this residence overlooking the Kaaba, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif sealed an alliance that has come to be known as the Mecca Pact. The choice of this deeply symbolic sanctuary goes far beyond mere religious staging. By uniting their military capabilities in principle at the very cradle of Islam, Ankara, Riyadh, and Islamabad are sending a clear political message: this alliance transcends geographical distances and ethnic divides, positioning itself as the new guarantor of stability in the Sunni world. Three weeks on, this mutual defense treaty has proven to be far more than a diplomatic statement of intent or a conventional bilateral cooperation agreement—especially in light of the recent trilateral meeting in Istanbul and the establishment of a secretariat. It is, in fact, a binding collective defense mechanism modeled on NATO's Article 5, stipulating that an armed attack against any one of the signatories constitutes a direct attack against all three. This commitment was born out of the pressing need to respond to the crises that have continued to shake the world throughout 2026. Since February, the broader military escalation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has plunged the Middle East and its maritime routes into critical vulnerability, forcing regional powers to revisit their past security doctrines and rely increasingly on themselves in a rapidly shifting global environment—particularly as new military technologies proliferate and are no longer the exclusive domain of major powers. Moving to action: the establishment of a secretariat On August 31, a trilateral summit was held in Istanbul bringing together the defense ministers, foreign ministers, and chiefs of staff of the Turkish, Pakistani, and Saudi armed forces—the first such meeting since the signing of the Pact. During the summit, the three countries took a decisive step toward making the alliance fully operational. With the goal of institutionalizing the agreement and affirming the commitment to making it a pillar of regional stability, senior officials from all three countries formally announced the creation of a permanent secretariat, to be based in Riyadh. The first Secretary-General, a Pakistani national, will be appointed for a three-year term. He will be tasked with coordinating the interoperable capabilities of the three countries' armed forces in real time, while diplomatic protocols will be activated to reassure international powers of the alliance's strictly defensive nature. Among the concrete measures endorsed, the alliance's foreign ministers, defense ministers, and chiefs of staff approved operational mechanisms aimed at strengthening counterterrorism efforts, developing joint weapons production, and promoting military technology transfers and collective mutual deterrence. First pooling of military resources Pakistan has confirmed the operational deployment of a conventional military contingent of 8,000 soldiers in Saudi Arabia under the auspices of the new collective security framework formalized by the Mecca Defense Agreement. In addition to these 8,000 troops, several thousand other Pakistani soldiers have already been stationed in the Kingdom for decades under longstanding bilateral assistance and training protocols. The precise troop numbers of this longstanding permanent force are classified by both Defense Ministries. This new deployment represents a major evolution in the bloc's defense posture, strengthening overall deterrence against regional threats through strictly conventional means. Pakistan retains exclusive sovereign control over its nuclear arsenal, with the agreement ruling out any extension of its strategic umbrella or the integration of its strategic forces into a joint command structure. The deployed Pakistani force includes an air defense and tactical support component. It consists of a squadron of 16 Chinese-made JF-17 Thunder supersonic fighter jets stationed at King Abdulaziz Air Base in Dhahran, located in the Kingdom's most vulnerable energy corridor, just minutes away from Saudi Aramco's infrastructure. These aircraft carry out air defense and surveillance missions against Iranian or other missile and drone threats. In addition to this air component, Islamabad has also deployed in the Dhahran region two squadrons of reconnaissance and attack drones, along with a battery of HQ-9 long- and medium-range surface-to-air missile systems, funded by Riyadh and operated by Pakistani personnel. Since spring 2026, Pakistan has stationed on Saudi soil two squadrons of Shahpar-II and Shahpar-III surveillance drones, interconnected with the HQ-9 air defense batteries, as well as long-range kamikaze drones such as the D-248. The HQ-9 system — or "Red Flag-9" — developed by China, comprises long- and medium-range, high- and low-altitude surface-to-air missiles. Designed to intercept multiple aerial targets simultaneously, it is China's equivalent of the Russian S-300/S-400 systems and employs the same guidance technologies as the American Patriot missiles. It is equipped with several types of radars, including high- and low-altitude surveillance, target acquisition, and missile guidance radars. These Pakistani units operate in synergy with Saudi forces to monitor Saudi airspace in real time and counter missile and drone threats. Beyond these already pooled capabilities, many others could be added, turning the Mecca Pact into an integrated military entity capable of responding instantly to any aggression against its members. By combining Gulf capital, Turkish technological expertise, the defense industries of all three countries, and Pakistan's strike power, this coalition is radically reshaping the regional geopolitical balance — drastically reducing dependence on extra-regional powers while establishing credible deterrence against the persistent tensions gripping the Middle East. However, two observations are worth making: the first is that all three signatories are allies of the United States, which remains indispensable to each of them individually; the second is that each faces its own specific challenges — Pakistan, for instance, has a deeply fraught dispute with India, and the two countries have come dangerously close to all-out war on several occasions. What, then, would the Mecca Pact do if a conflict were to erupt between Islamabad and New Delhi? Turkey, in the current context, is far from being attacked by anyone, but its support for Hamas – which Riyadh views with great suspicion – its involvement in Central Asia, Cyprus, and Libya, its age-old conflict with Greece, and its naval military presence in Qatar are all factors that could one day prove embarrassing for one or both of the other members of the alliance. (to be continued)

Hezbollah-Israel: An Endless War in Whose Interests? (14)
By
Khalil Helou
Published
Aug 5, 2026 - 02:02

This series of articles aims to provide a clearer understanding of the current situation on the Lebanese scene, viewed through the lens of history and free from passionate, ideological, or romanticized narratives that miss the realities on the ground — leaving readers to draw their own conclusions. The previous thirteen installments offered a reexamination of the events surrounding Hezbollah's rise to power, from the Taif Agreement through the incomplete implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 in 2006. Since the end of the 33-day war with Israel in 2006, Hezbollah has worked to rebuild itself in terms of weaponry, reorganization, and redeployment. In short, it took a serious blow during that war, yet surprised Israel with its military capabilities. Over the following two years, it grew into a genuine armed force of regional stature, thanks to four key factors: battlefield experience; Iranian support; the Syrian land bridge (under the Assad regime) linking Tehran to Beirut; and the understanding between its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and Lebanese President Emile Lahoud at the time. As a result, the logistical supply corridors from Syria were reactivated, triggering both a quantitative and qualitative leap in the pro-Iranian militia's arsenal. Some estimates suggest its rocket stockpile increased tenfold, rising from roughly 15,000 in 2006 to more than 150,000 projectiles by 2018. This included not only rockets in the traditional sense, but also new longer-range missiles it had not previously possessed — among them precision missiles, notably the Fateh-110, manufactured locally by converting older Zelzal models through the addition of in-flight guidance systems and the replacement of fixed fins with movable ones. It also acquired precise, long-range anti-ship missiles such as the Chinese Silkworm and its Iranian copies, and even Russian Yakhont missiles with a range of 300 km. Added to this arsenal were suicide drones, missile-launching drones, reconnaissance drones, and more — as well as portable surface-to-air missiles of the MANPAD type. In terms of redeployment, the Shia militia shifted its military infrastructure into the urban fabric and within populated areas. The Shia towns and villages of the south and Beirut's southern suburbs were transformed into complex, carefully concealed military-urban fortresses, where civilians and fighters are intertwined in a web that is difficult to unravel — making it virtually impossible to draw a clear line between combatants and non-combatants. Hezbollah also made increasing use of civilian front organizations to carry out civilian surveillance patrols, the most well-known of which is "Green Without Borders," registered as an NGO dedicated to environmental protection and reforestation. The outposts and nurseries of this NGO, located along the Blue Line, long served to conceal Hezbollah's military infrastructure, ammunition depots, and combat tunnels. Furthermore, under the pretext of protecting private property or reforestation zones, its members routinely blocked UNIFIL inspectors from gaining access throughout the two decades following the 2006 war. Finally, Hezbollah fighters maintained a plainclothes presence at the entrances to camouflaged positions and underground installations. The constraints faced by UNIFIL UNIFIL in its new, reinforced form under Resolution 1701 never offered, from the outset, a genuine solution to the disarmament of Hezbollah. This is because it is not a combat force — operating as it does under Chapter 6 rather than Chapter 7 of the United Nations Charter. Its European contributors, particularly France, Italy, Spain, and Germany, refused to allow their Blue Helmets to act in place of the State in carrying out coercive disarmament. Moreover, the UN mandate did not permit systematic search operations. This situation led UNIFIL to coexist with Hezbollah, not without indirect contacts between the two parties through Lebanese intelligence services, and through mayors and NGOs affiliated with Hezbollah — especially after the start of the war in Syria and the proliferation of Islamist fighters on both sides of the Lebanese-Syrian border. In this context, UNIFIL suffered at least three attacks in 2011, leaving 16 members of the Italian and French contingents wounded. The perpetrators were militiamen linked to Al-Qaeda, notably the Palestinian Abdallah Azzam Brigades, operating out of Palestinian refugee camps in southern Lebanon. The political aftermath of the 2006 war On the political front, the pressure exerted by Hezbollah, the Amal movement, and their ally Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement — just three months after the 33-day war — took the form of an institutional blockade aimed at durably weakening the executive branch. As early as November 2006, five Shia ministers from Hezbollah and Amal, along with Christian minister Yaacoub Sarraf, a close ally of President Emile Lahoud, resigned. They denounced the absence of a "blocking third" (1) in their favor within the Council of Ministers and declared the government illegitimate. This undermined the legitimacy of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and forced him to govern from a position of weakness. From December 2006 onward, a massive sit-in in downtown Beirut surrounding the Grand Serail, combined with Nabih Berri's decision not to convene Parliament, paralyzed legislative activity and prevented the presidential election — scheduled for September–October 2007 — from taking place, thereby deepening the political deadlock. At the same time, the government's inability to dismantle Hezbollah's private telecommunications network — deemed illegal — turned what was meant to be an assertion of state sovereignty into a casus belli. The government's decision to delegitimize that network on May 5, 2008, triggered a military response from Hezbollah on May 7, 2008. The May 7 power grab On May 7 and 8, 2008, Hezbollah seized control of large swaths of West Beirut, attacked the offices of the Future Movement, and once again besieged Prime Minister Fouad Siniora by force of arms at the government palace — demonstrating that any attempt to militarily weaken the pro-Iranian militia would lead to the collapse of public order. Faced with the specter of all-out war and state collapse, Siniora — in agreement with the very ministers who had called for the dismantling of Hezbollah's clandestine network — rescinded the decrees targeting that network and accepted, under Qatari mediation, the Doha Agreement of May 21, 2008. The Doha Agreement In the wake of the May 7, 2008 power grab, Qatar — having positioned itself as a mediator in Arab and Middle Eastern disputes and asserting its soft power — summoned Lebanon's leaders to Doha. The efforts of its emir ultimately led to an agreement that imposed the formation of a national unity government granting Hezbollah a "blocking third" (1), or veto power, within the Council of Ministers. The same agreement prohibited the use of weapons to settle internal disputes — a clause that had been repeated in every Lebanese inter-factional agreement since 1975 and had long since become little more than a formality. Nevertheless, the status of the pro-Iranian party's weapons was enshrined and protected under the pretext of "confronting Israel," effectively making the issue untouchable. Ultimately, this "compromise" had not been a simple tactical choice but was rather the result of an entanglement of military and political imperatives, among them the need to break a constitutional deadlock, ensure security stability, and preserve the (apparent) national unity that was, in reality, non-existent in practice. Thus, the first sovereignist government after the end of the Syrian occupation was forced to bow to the realities and the facts on the ground. As a result, Hezbollah continued to wield the "resistance" argument for one single purpose: to intimidate its opponents and maintain, at minimal cost, its grip over political decision-making in Lebanon. (1) The "blocking third" (or guarantee third) within the Lebanese government stems from a contested interpretation of the Lebanese Constitution as amended in 1990 by the Taif Agreement. The phrase "blocking third" does not appear verbatim in the text, but rests on two major constitutional pillars. On one hand, Article 65 stipulates that decisions on 14 "fundamental" matters — such as the electoral law or constitutional amendments — require a mandatory two-thirds majority of cabinet members, which automatically grants veto power to any coalition holding one third of ministers plus one. On the other hand, Article 69 provides for the automatic resignation of the entire executive if more than one third of its members resign. This institutional mechanism, originally designed to safeguard the communal coexistence pact, was politically enshrined in the Doha Agreement of May 2008, elevating this mathematical quota into a sine qua non condition for government formation, thereby granting Hezbollah veto power in every government formed from 2008 through 2025.

Ankara at the Heart of NATO 3.0’s Southern Focus: What About Lebanon?
By
Khalil Helou
Published
Jul 29, 2026 - 16:01

In the NATO 3.0 framework that emerged from the Ankara summit (July 7-8), the Alliance has strengthened its ability to simultaneously address a continental threat in the East (Russia) and hybrid instability (terrorism, migration crises, military conflicts) on its Mediterranean and Middle Eastern flanks. For this second dimension, NATO is now relying on Ankara, which has not only become a major arms supplier to member states but has also established itself as a mediator between the West and the Moscow-Tehran axis. Turkey has refused to sever ties with Russia and Iran while containing the former in the Black Sea and the Caucasus, and the latter in Syria and Lebanon. The Riyadh Pact After several years of tensions with Riyadh, particularly following the Khashoggi affair, Turkey joined Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in establishing a Strategic Mutual Defense Pact, now described by some observers as a “Sunni NATO.” This bloc is emerging to counter both Iran’s remaining influence in Syria and Lebanon and Israeli power. The powerful symbol of this rapprochement is the Hejaz railway project. The railway line, which was first built in 1908 under Sultan Abdülhamid II, was a symbol of Ottoman power, linking Istanbul to Mecca until it was destroyed by the forces of the Arab Revolt led by Sharif Hussein of Mecca, with the support and guidance of British officers. From 1918 onward, these fighters systematically blew up tracks and bridges in order to disrupt the supply routes of Ottoman troops. The new railway project, approved last June, will link Istanbul to the Arabian Peninsula through Syria and Jordan, with a planned extension to Oman, creating a trade corridor connecting India and Southeast Asia to Istanbul. It represents a major economic strategy aimed, first, at bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and limiting the impact of Iranian pressure, and second, at reducing reliance on the port of Haifa, with the objective of marginalizing Israel’s commercial role in the region as Ankara’s relations with Tel Aviv reach their lowest point. The New Syria: The Heart of Turkish Influence The most important factor in this context is the consolidation of Turkish influence in Syria. Following the fall of the Assad regime, Ankara has actively supported the new administration led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa. By becoming Syria’s main Sunni patron, Turkey has severed the former pro-Iranian land corridors to Lebanon, Jordan, and the West Bank. On the military front, Ankara has refused to withdraw its troops from northern Syria, using counterterrorism efforts as a justification. Its actual objective, however, is the elimination of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led force accused of being an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Ankara and Washington classify as a terrorist organization. In addition, Syria participated for the first time in Turkey’s joint military exercises, known as EFES 2026, the latest edition of one of the largest multinational live-fire military drills organized every two years by the Turkish armed forces. The exercise took place between April and May 2026, primarily in the Izmir and Istanbul regions of Turkey. It involved more than 10,000 troops from fifty countries. Beyond its traditional NATO allies, such as the United States and France, Ankara invited the Syrian army to take part for the first time, marking a significant geopolitical development, as this represented Syria’s first official participation in an overseas military exercise since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Lebanon and the Strategic Awakening of the Turkish Sphinx Turkey, which has reasserted itself as NATO 3.0’s southern pivot, as a key player in the Middle East, and as a member of the Islamabad-Ankara-Riyadh defense pact, now wields considerable influence in Syria. In this regard, it shares certain affinities with some Lebanese Islamist movements, such as Jama’a Islamya. If Lebanon is to survive the regional chaos, it must learn to deal with this “Turkish pivot” on a state-to-state basis, not as a vassal, but as a strategic partner aware that the Middle East’s center of gravity has shifted northward. Between 2025 and 2026, Turkey intensified its hostile rhetoric toward Israel, calling for its destruction. In this context, Erdoğan indicated that Lebanon falls within Turkey’s security sphere of interest. “Turkey’s security does not begin at its borders, but in Aleppo, Damascus, and Beirut,” he said, after making clear that he intended to counter Israeli expansionism in Lebanon. These statements carry considerable weight given the current geopolitical situation, even if they remain, for the most part and for the time being, verbal. Following the NATO summit, however, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that no open war with Israel was being sought, suggesting the influence of an American push for de-escalation. Lebanon’s official authorities have begun opening channels toward Ankara through several prime ministerial visits, the latest being that of Nawaf Salam a few days ago. President Joseph Aoun was also expected to travel to Ankara to consolidate this policy of engagement. However, strategic ties between the two countries remain below the required level and still need to be expanded. General Rodolphe Haykal’s visit to the SAHA defense exhibition in Istanbul (May 5-7, 2026) was intended to explore Turkish logistical support for the Lebanese army. Concrete cooperation between the two armed forces will nonetheless depend on US approval and on the Lebanese army’s ability to secure the Syrian border. Turkey can help contain instability emanating from Syria and a potential resurgence of ISIS, an enemy that Ankara closely monitors. Lebanese-Syrian Ties in Turkey’s Shadow Beirut stands to gain, in absolute terms, from consolidating its ties with Damascus by using the new Syrian regime as an opportunity to build mutual trust – while recognizing that tensions remain over former Assad regime officials currently in Lebanon, as well as over the Hezbollah issue in Syria. Lebanon also has an interest in contributing to a shared Ankara-Damascus-Beirut security framework, one that would provide reciprocal guarantees while preserving Lebanese political autonomy. In this context, diplomatic sources say that Lebanon was a top priority during the meeting between President Donald Trump and Ahmad al-Sharaa on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara. The two presidents are concerned about Hezbollah’s clandestine supply networks running through Turkey and Syria into Lebanon and agreed on the need to intensify coordination on this issue along the Lebanese-Syrian border. The Multiplication of Regional and International Axes Lebanon’s security is now being negotiated as much in Ankara as in Washington, Tel Aviv, Riyadh, Paris, Damascus, and Tehran. Lebanon will therefore have to navigate this environment with pragmatism. This requires a coherent Lebanese strategy covering security, defense, the economy, and foreign policy – a strategy that has not yet taken shape. Is this strategy being developed within the Council of Ministers? Within the Higher Defense Council? Behind the scenes at the presidential palace? Is it being entrusted to experts (real ones)? Or does it remain nonexistent? Should such a strategy emerge, it will need to: 1 – preserve sovereignty, preventing Lebanon from becoming a mere pawn in the rivalry between Tehran and Tel Aviv, and between Ankara and Tel Aviv; 2 – maintain a minimum level of credibility to avoid being abandoned by Washington; 3 – take into account Europe’s growing role in the Middle East; and 4 – avoid falling back into Iran’s orbit.

Hezbollah-Israel: An Endless War in Whose Interests? (13)
By
Khalil Helou
Published
Jul 27, 2026 - 13:05

This series of articles aims to provide a clearer understanding of the current situation on the Lebanese political scene in light of the past, free from passionate, ideological, or romanticized narratives that miss the underlying realities, leaving readers to draw their own conclusions. The previous twelve installments offered a reexamination of the events surrounding Hezbollah's rise to power, from the Taif Agreement through the deeply flawed implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 in 2006. Two years before the 33-day war of 2006, and more specifically on September 3, 2004, under direct pressure from Bashar al-Assad's Syria, the Lebanese Parliament extended President Émile Lahoud's term by three years. This constitutional amendment was pushed through in blatant disregard of UN Security Council Resolution 1559, adopted the day before at the initiative of France and the United States. That resolution had explicitly called for strict adherence to Lebanon's constitutional rules and for a free, fair presidential election free from foreign interference. Furthermore, the same resolution demanded the disbanding of illegal militias—including Hezbollah—and the withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon. In an attempt to project a semblance of popular legitimacy in the face of international condemnation, Émile Lahoud turned the Baabda Palace into a stage for displays of allegiance. Pro-Syrian delegations, government officials, military personnel, officers of all ranks, civilian supporters, and Hezbollah partisans paraded through to orchestrate effusive congratulations, manufacturing the appearance of broad national consensus around his forced extension—while in reality he was internationally, regionally, and domestically isolated, save for pro-Syrian factions, Hezbollah, and the Amal movement. Having opposed the presidential term extension under direct threats from Bashar al-Assad, Prime Minister Rafic Hariri resigned in October 2004 and subsequently aligned himself with the anti-Syrian opposition. The Assassination of Rafic Hariri and the Cedar Revolution This political shift was identified by the UN—and later by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon—as the primary motive behind his assassination, along with his companions and security escort, on February 14, 2005. This crime directly triggered the Cedar Revolution and ultimately forced the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon. The February 14, 2005 assassination was followed by three weeks of massive mobilization on the streets of Beirut, with crowds loudly demanding an end to Syria's occupation of Lebanon and holding up photographs of senior officers who ran Lebanon's security apparatus—including Generals Jamil Sayed, Raymond Azar, and Ali Hajj—accusing them of complicity in Hariri's murder and denouncing them as symbols of the Lebanese-Syrian security apparatus. Deepening Ties Between Lahoud and Nasrallah To prop up and shield an increasingly isolated Lahoud—who served as a critical legal cover for Hezbollah—Hassan Nasrallah responded by mobilizing his supporters on March 8, 2005, effectively sealing a pact of mutual survival: protecting the president was declared a red line, and any attempt to remove him was met with explicit warnings of retaliation. Lahoud's political survival was ultimately secured when Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir refused to countenance his removal through street pressure, unwilling to set such a precedent in Lebanon's contemporary history. His position was accepted, albeit reluctantly, by the sovereigntist coalition of the time, which was mindful of maintaining the country's sectarian balance. The sovereigntists mobilized their own supporters a week later in direct response to the March 8 demonstration. Thus, on March 14, 2005, Beirut witnessed a historic rally of hundreds of thousands of supporters from the late Rafic Hariri's Future Movement (FM), the Lebanese Forces (LF), the Kataeb, the National Liberal Party (NLP), the Free Patriotic Movement's Aounists (FPM, still anti-Syrian at the time), the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), Shia liberals, leftists… all demanding the withdrawal of Syrian troops, the dismantling of the Lebanese-Syrian security apparatus, and the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1559. Following this rally, the 'March 14, 2005 Forces' coalition was formed, with prominent figures including Samir Frangié, Gebrane Tueni, Samir Kassir, Nayla Moawad, former President Amine Gemayel, and others. This further strengthened the ties between Lahoud, who was running out of options, and Nasrallah. A pro-militia culture at odds with the rule of law From the time he served as commander-in-chief of the Lebanese Army, Emile Lahoud gradually fostered—through his attitudes and directives—a 'culture' of acceptance toward the Syrian occupation, and a 'culture' of sympathy toward Hezbollah, which he portrayed as a national liberation movement against Israel. This approach was reflected in Lahoud's speeches and memoranda, which deliberately overlooked the fundamentalist ideology of the pro-Iranian party—an ideology at odds with the very foundations of the Lebanon established in 1920. Later, as President of the Republic, Lahoud continued to promote this image of Hezbollah at the national level, not only within the Shia communities that supported him, but also among Christian, Druze, and Sunni circles. This propaganda was facilitated and amplified by leaders with outsized ambitions, such as Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun, ten months after his return from exile in France, as well as a host of politicians from various Lebanese communities—including Democratic Party leader Talal Arslan and certain dissidents from sovereigntist parties who had been approached by the security services of the time. Pro-militia sympathies also made inroads within state institutions. Officials began endorsing the logic of 'resistance,' justifying illegal practices, and a gradual erosion of the rule of law took hold. This replacement of the sovereigntist culture—the cornerstone of a strong state—with one of submission to a militia driven by a sectarian religious ideology seeped, under the banner of 'resistance,' into Lebanon's military, security, administrative, and judicial institutions. Lebanon continues to suffer from this to this day, so deep-rooted is this cultural erosion. Throughout all these years, a large number of Lebanese politicians were comfortable submitting to the Syrian occupation, and remain equally comfortable under Hezbollah's hegemony. These politicians made no effort to uphold national dignity, and for decades preferred to focus on their narrow day-to-day interests, blending business, public affairs, and populism. Army deployment in the South, incidents with Hezbollah Despite the compromise between legality and Hezbollah's arsenal, incidents were reported as early as September 2006 during the Lebanese Army's deployment in the South, following the Israeli withdrawal that began on August 17. These incidents were notably illustrated, for example, by the army's interception of ammunition trucks traveling from Syria to the Bekaa, and from the Bekaa toward the South. The Lebanese soldiers behind these interceptions, proud of their role and driven by a sense of duty, found themselves frustrated by political decisions that forced them either to return the confiscated ammunition or to immediately release the stopped vehicles and the militiamen accompanying them. Another example hampering the restoration of state sovereignty: the demarcation of zones — often wooded and fortified — that were off-limits to Lebanese legal forces (the army and the ISF) on the orders of President Emile Lahoud. These zones were held exclusively by Hezbollah fighters. Citizens who tried to approach them were turned away by the militiamen, either on the pretext that they were 'nature reserves,' or explicitly because they were militia-controlled areas that had become de facto exclusion zones within the army's deployment area in the South. Read more on the same topic: Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war in whose interest? (12) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war in whose interest? (11) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war in whose interest? (10) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war in whose interest? (9) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war in whose interest? (8) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war in whose interest? (7) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war in whose interest? (6) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war in whose interest? (5) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war in whose interest? (4) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war in whose interest? (3) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war in whose interest? (2) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war in whose interest? (1)

Hezbollah-Israel: An Endless War in Whose Interests? (12)
By
Khalil Helou
Published
Jul 16, 2026 - 15:49

This series of articles is intended to shed light on the current situation through the lens of the past, far removed from passionate, ideological or romantic narratives that overlook the underlying realities. It is up to the reader to draw the appropriate conclusions. The previous eleven instalments revisited the events surrounding Hezbollah’s rise to power, from the Taif Agreement to the severely incomplete implementation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 in 2006. From the very first Israeli withdrawal in May 2000, Lebanese President Emile Lahoud (1998-2007) and Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah reached a fundamental understanding: the Lebanese state would legitimize Hezbollah, and in return, the movement would formally commit to respecting the country’s institutions and refrain from using its weapons in domestic political disputes. It would later become clear that the pledge was not only short-lived – it collapsed on May 7, 2008, when Hezbollah seized Beirut by force – but that its arsenal had, all along, exerted decisive influence over national decision-making. Militarily, the Lahoud-Nasrallah understanding translated into close coordination between the pro-Iranian party and the upper echelons of Lebanon’s security apparatus, where Lahoud loyalists, along with officials approved by Hezbollah and/or its ally, the Amal Movement, occupied key positions. Control of the Army Following the Syrian invasion of October 13, 1990, and the occupation of the presidential palace and the Lebanese Ministry of Defense by Assad regime forces, the Lebanese Army was subjected to a systematic purge and a campaign of repression orchestrated by the Lebanese-Syrian security apparatus. The objective was to crush any resistance to the Syrian occupation within the military. On the day of the invasion alone, more than 100 Lebanese soldiers were summarily executed, dozens more were humiliated and captured, and around 20 senior officers were transferred to Syrian prisons. The following years (1991-1992) were marked by the army’s forced restructuring. Officers and noncommissioned officers suspected of hostility toward Damascus or loyalty to the sovereigntist opposition were relentlessly targeted, summoned by Lebanese and Syrian intelligence services, terrorized, forced into retirement, or brought before the Military Tribunal on charges of “undermining relations with a brotherly state.” Many of these military personnel were held incommunicado at the Ministry of Defense in Yarzeh or in Syrian detention centers in Lebanon, such as the one in Anjar. They were subjected to systematic torture and ultimately joined the ranks of the hundreds of Lebanese missing persons held in Syrian prisons. From his appointment as commander of the Lebanese Army in 1990 to his accession to the presidency in 1998, Émile Lahoud maintained decisive influence within the military, where he enjoyed the loyalty and support of senior officers occupying key positions. As president, he had the authority to sign their promotion decrees and continued to wield considerable influence over their assignments to these key positions. Alongside officers loyal to Lahoud, others were under the influence of Nabih Berri, leader of the Amal Movement, speaker of Parliament, and a Hezbollah ally, as well as other Syrian-aligned politicians. It was during this period that the army’s sovereigntist ethos – one of its defining characteristics since Lebanon’s independence – began to erode. It was gradually replaced by a culture that accepted shared sovereignty with the Syrian occupation army, then officially described as a “sister” army, and with Hezbollah. Although this new culture encountered resistance within the ranks, it prevailed for more than two decades. The Decapitation and Marginalization of Sovereigntists (1990-2005) From 1990 onward, sovereigntist politicians were entirely sidelined from the political process and excluded from appointments to state institutions. The electoral system introduced in 1992, imposed by the Syrians, along with intimidation tactics, forced them either to submit or to withdraw from political life. At the same time, following the 1992 parliamentary elections, Hezbollah entered Parliament with 12 seats, while the sovereigntist camp was completely absent. An intimidation campaign began with the assassination of Dany Chamoun, leader of the National Liberal Party, just days after the Syrian invasion in October 1990. It was followed by the forced exile of General Michel Aoun in 1991, who at the time opposed both the Syrian occupation and illegal militias, including Hezbollah, before aligning himself, fifteen years later, with the pro-Iranian militia. Former president Amine Gemayel (1982-1988) had already voluntarily gone into exile in France after the end of his term. Between 1990 and 2005, the Lebanese-Syrian security apparatus systematically suffocated the anti-Syrian opposition through successive waves of persecution under the presidencies of Elias Hraoui (1989-1998) and Emile Lahoud (1998-2007). This period of repression was marked by several defining events, including the abduction of Kataëb Party political bureau member Boutros Khawand on September 15, 1992, followed by the unresolved bombing of Our Lady of Deliverance Church in Zouk Mikael on February 27, 1994, which killed 11 people. The attack provided an immediate pretext for the pro-Syrian government to dissolve the Lebanese Forces and arrest its leader, Samir Geagea, on April 21, 1994. He was later sentenced to life imprisonment and spent more than 11 years in prison. A few days later, on April 27, 1994, terrorism struck the Kataëb Party’s political bureau in Saifi, killing one of its officials, Tony Baaklini. Meanwhile, student movements affiliated with the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM, founded by Michel Aoun), the Lebanese Forces, the National Liberal Party, and the Kataëb Party were subjected to repeated mass arrests. These culminated on Thursday, August 7, 2001, when more than 250 sovereigntist activists were violently detained following the historic Chouf reconciliation between Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir, then a symbol of anti-Syrian resistance, and Walid Joumblatt, leader of the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP). This campaign of political repression also included the forced closure of the MTV television station in 2002 and the harassment of journalists such as Gebran Tueni. The Assassination of Rafic Hariri and the Syrian Withdrawal Following the assassination of Rafic Hariri on February 14, 2005, and the subsequent Cedar Revolution, Damascus withdrew its troops on April 28, 2005. This paved the way for Michel Aoun’s return from exile fifteen days later, on May 7, 2005, followed by Samir Geagea’s release under an amnesty in July 2005. President Amine Gemayel, for his part, had returned as early as 2000. The State-Hezbollah Division of Sovereignty Despite the Cedar Revolution and the Syrian withdrawal in 2005, followed by Israel’s second withdrawal in 2006 in accordance with U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, President Lahoud continued to oversee intelligence-sharing between Lebanese security services and the pro-Iranian militia. The primary objective was to delineate the Lebanese Army’s operational areas, effectively giving Hezbollah free rein to operate in southern Lebanon, Beirut’s southern suburbs, and the North Bekaa, while securing the pro-Iranian party’s supply lines from Syria. This coordination also aimed to track down Israeli espionage networks. Read more on this topic: Hezbollah-Israel: An Endless War in Whose Interests? (11) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war in whose interest? (10) Hezbollah-Israel: An Endless War in Whose Interests? (9) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (8) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (7) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (6) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (5) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (4) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (3) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (2) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (1)

NATO 3.0: The Awakening of the Ottoman Giant Within the Alliance (2/2)
By
Khalil Helou
Published
Jul 11, 2026 - 14:31

July 8, 2026 will go down as a pivotal date in the history of the Atlantic Alliance. The "Ankara Declaration," published at the close of the NATO summit held in Turkey, highlighted a profound transformation — technological, financial, and geopolitical alike. This shift to NATO 3.0 refocuses the organization on a doctrine of informational superiority and high-intensity territorial defense, with Turkey affirming itself as the southern cornerstone. A financial revolution: the Bank for Defence and Resilience One of the summit's most innovative aspects is its response to the financial challenges of rearmament. Although the European Union established the 150-billion-euro SAFE fund (Security Action for Europe) for defence in 2025 — from which Canada and Turkey are excluded — the Atlantic Alliance had to find its own solution to bring these countries on board. Against a backdrop where member states are committing to raising defence spending to as much as 5% of GDP, nine countries — including Turkey and Canada — announced the creation of the Bank for Defence, Security and Resilience . This institution, headquartered in Canada, will have an impressive financing capacity of $134 billion. Its primary objective is to provide preferential-rate loans to support dual-use infrastructure projects (both civilian and military), as well as to strengthen cybersecurity and fund the direct rearmament of member countries. The Informational Doctrine: AI and the 'Combat Cloud' The Ankara summit marks a shift away from a traditional military vision — focused on the number of armored vehicles and divisions — toward a doctrine centered on decision-making superiority. For NATO, this means its armed forces must understand a situation, decide, and act faster and more effectively than the adversary. It is no longer solely a matter of material superiority: the concept rests on three pillars. 1) Data mastery: the instantaneous fusion of sensor data (satellites, drones, radars, cyber sources) analyzed by artificial intelligence. 2) Accelerating the command cycle: through digital wargaming — strategic simulations that pit human teams against highly realistic scenarios — plans are tested without real-world risk, logistical and tactical weaknesses are identified, and AI analyzes every decision to provide actionable intelligence to military headquarters. 3) Protection against cognitive warfare: measures to shield leaders and populations from manipulation and disinformation. Within this framework, the Warfighting Cloud is taking shape: a transatlantic, interoperable combat cloud that connects all allied sensors in real time. Fighter jets, naval vessels, ground-based radars, and satellite constellations all feed their data into it, delivering an instant, comprehensive picture of the battlefield. This infrastructure, deeply integrated with AI, is enshrined in the summit's final declaration: advanced AI models will be embedded in the planning and execution of operations. The goal is straightforward: to shorten the decision-making loop so that NATO can respond more quickly than its adversaries to increasingly complex and fast-moving threats. A record-breaking industrial agenda: AWACS and Drone Edge The industrial dimension of the summit demonstrated unprecedented momentum, with more than $50 billion in contracts signed in a single day. Two major announcements illustrate this drive to modernize. First, the replacement of NATO's aging fleet of American-built AWACS radar aircraft. NATO selected the Global Eye system from Swedish manufacturer Saab (pictured). This is a highly strategic choice: the Global Eye is one of the few systems capable of detecting and tracking the new generation of hypersonic missiles, which have become a central concern for European security. Additionally, the 'NATO's Drone Edge' initiative was launched with a massive budget of $40 billion over five years. This sweeping plan aims to procure autonomous and unmanned systems across all domains: aerial drones, maritime drones, and ground robots. Within this framework, the Alliance has already confirmed the purchase of high-altitude 'Triton' reconnaissance drones from American manufacturer Northrop Grumman, bolstering surveillance of borders and strategically significant areas. American disengagement and European autonomy The Pentagon has begun a partial physical withdrawal from the European continent, in line with the American security strategy announced at the end of 2025. The United States is pulling one of its two aircraft carriers assigned to the NATO area. They are also withdrawing one of every two strategic bombers and cutting their F-15 fighter fleet in Europe by a third. The Reaper, drones, critical for surveillance, are also seeing their presence cut in half. This withdrawal effectively forces European nations to step up and shoulder a greater share of their own defense. This is the very essence of NATO 3.0: an Alliance in which European allies, Canada, and Turkey are no longer mere junior partners, but the pillars of collective defense — particularly in managing conventional threats on European soil and other threats on its southern flank. A high-intensity closing communiqué The Ankara Declaration reaffirms Article 5 — 'an attack on one ally is an attack on all' — while emphasizing support for Ukraine and preparedness for high-intensity warfare. For 2026, allies — primarily European ones — will allocate €70 billion to equipping and training Ukrainian forces, with a commitment to renew this in 2027. The declaration also takes aim at Iran, asserting that it must never acquire nuclear weapons and demanding respect for freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. NATO 3.0 refocuses the Alliance on deterrence and defense. Combining technological innovation, sovereign financial tools, and greater European responsibility in the face of partial American withdrawal, NATO is preparing for confrontations where data and autonomy will make all the difference. Turkey the summit's big winner — but… Turkey emerges from the summit as a central player in NATO 3.0, securing significant diplomatic and industrial gains, though not all of its ambitions were fulfilled. As the summit's host nation, it has strengthened its role as an East–West pivot and joined the nine founding members of the new Defense and Resilience Bank, which manages $134 billion — a potential lever for its defense industry. The emphasis on the 'Drone Edge' initiative ($40 billion) and the integration of artificial intelligence validate its strategy centered on autonomous systems (drones, etc.) and position its companies as key partners. Washington also agreed to the sale of engines for Turkey's future Kaan fighter jet, valued at $700 million. However, despite a diplomatic shift toward gradually lifting restrictions on the sale of Western military components and American F-35s, removing the Congressional veto in Washington remains essential for these intentions to be realized.

NATO 3.0: The Awakening of the Ottoman Giant and the Rebalancing of Alliances (1/2)

On July 8, 2026, Ankara became the scene of a strategic turning point for European and transatlantic collective defense. While President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan presiding, the opening of the 48-hour summit at the Beştepe Presidential Complex marked the official launch of what many officials and analysts are already calling “NATO 3.0.” The summit goes beyond diplomatic protocol: it reorients the Alliance’s institutional priorities in response to a range of challenges, including the protracted war in Ukraine, simmering tensions with Iran, the persistent threat of terrorism, and mounting concern over successive waves of migration. All of this comes at a time when U.S. policy is increasingly centered on the Western Hemisphere rather than Europe and the Middle East. Against this backdrop, Turkey has emerged as a pivotal player capable of mediation, regional protection, and recalibrating European and transatlantic security priorities. This summit could redefine both the means and the objectives of the Alliance. NATO 3.0: An Opportunity for Turkish Power The Alliance’s evolution is now understood through three major eras. NATO 1.0 was defined by the Cold War. NATO 2.0 by the post-9/11 interventionist era. Today, NATO 3.0 – a concept popularized by U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth – is redefining the priorities. The Alliance is no longer focused solely on the East, on the Ukrainian plains and Russia; it must also incorporate its southern flank. Mark Rutte, the secretary general, has repeatedly stressed that NATO must be able to manage simultaneously a continental threat in the East (Russia) and hybrid instability in the South (terrorism and migration), particularly across the Black Sea, the Middle East, and North Africa. For Erdoğan, this amounts to a diplomatic triumph: having brought his allies to recognize that Europe’s security is decided as much on the Bosporus as it is in Warsaw. Ankara’s Technological “Showcase” For Erdoğan, this summit is above all a demonstration of Turkey’s military-industrial strength. The country’s technological advances enhanced its geopolitical weight at the regional and international levels. By including an industrial forum as part of the NATO summit, Erdoğan is showcasing Turkey’s 3,500 defense companies. Turkey is no longer merely seeking to acquire military equipment – such as air defense systems or fifth-generation fighter jets – but is also showcasing its Bayraktar drones, which have proved their effectiveness in Ukraine, along with its armored vehicles and electronic defense systems. This “showcase” highlights a reality that had been taking shape for two decades: Turkey’s resurgence after a century in the shadows. However, holding the summit in Ankara has drawn sharp criticism from NGOs over the country’s domestic crackdown. More than 200 opposition figures and activists were placed in preventive detention just before the summit, underscoring the high political cost of Turkey’s stability. Turkey’s Demand for the Lifting of Restrictions Ankara has made its demands clear ahead of the summit. The first is the lifting of intra-NATO trade restrictions. Several Western countries, including the United States, France, and Germany, maintain de facto embargoes on critical components required for the production of drones and defense systems. These restrictions, imposed after Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 missiles and its operations against Kurdish forces in Syria, are strangling Turkey’s indigenous defense industry. Erdoğan has described these measures as unfair. Turkey’s industrial giants, such as Baykar, which manufactures attack drones including the Bayraktar, and Turkish Aerospace Industries, which produces fighter jets and attack helicopters, are critically dependent on importing specific Western engines and components. These imports are essential for delivering on their huge order backlogs and, above all, for completing the KAAN, Turkey’s fifth-generation fighter jet. The Industrial Standoff: SAFE and SAMP/T Turkey’s second demand concerns the European SAFE program, or Security Action for Europe. Backed by €150 billion, this European Union financial mechanism, created in May 2025, aims to subsidize joint arms procurement and develop Europe’s defense industries by 2030. So far, Turkey has been excluded from the initiative because it does not strictly align with European foreign policy. Erdoğan considers this exclusion discriminatory: “Europe cannot share the burden of defense while excluding NATO’s second-largest army from its defense technology budgets.” The third and most complex issue concerns the French-Italian SAMP/T missile system (Surface-to-Air Missile Platform/Terrain). This system is Europe’s equivalent of the American Patriot, whose sale to Ankara has been restricted by Washington following Turkey’s purchase of the S-400s. SAMP/T is a highly automated, next-generation mobile medium and long-range air defense and anti-missile system. Turkey wants to acquire the technology to build its own missile defense shield, known as “Steel Dome.” While Paris and Rome have made a strategic shift by opening the door to delivery negotiations, the sticking point remains industrial and technological. Ankara is seeking technology transfers and local co-production rather than merely being granted permission to purchase the system. France and Italy remain cautious, demanding strict guarantees on intellectual property rights and assurances that the system will not interfere with the S-400s. The Trump-Erdoğan Affinity Amid Congressional Deadlock The summit is also the stage for the “friendship diplomacy” between Donald Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The U.S. president has made no secret of his admiration for Turkey’s “great leader.” This personal relationship has helped break the deadlock over the F-35 issue. Donald Trump’s imminent announcement that he intends to reinstate Turkey in the F-35 program marks a major geopolitical turning point. Excluded from the program in 2019 following Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 missiles, Ankara is now benefiting from a significant diplomatic thaw, illustrated by a U.S. proposal to sell engines for its KAAN fighter jet under a $700 million contract. Yet the U.S. Congress continues to maintain a legal ban preventing the delivery of the F-35s – already paid for and stored in the United States – as long as Turkey continue to possess Russian S-400 technology, which is considered a threat to the aircraft’s stealth capabilities. To overcome the deadlock, Washington is exploring the possibility of reselling Turkey’s S-400s to a neutral third party, such as South Korea. This rapprochement is reshaping the balance of power in the Middle East and Europe, drawing fierce opposition from Israel and Greece, which are urging Washington to block the sale. The Black Sea Chokepoint Ankara, guardian of the straits . Since 2022, the Black Sea has become a theater of direct military confrontation, disrupting global grain and energy corridors. As host of the NATO summit, Turkey is reaffirming its role as the sovereign guardian of the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits under the 1936 Montreux Convention, using this authority to restrict access for warships from non-Black Sea states. This posture is forcing the Alliance to rethink its naval presence and placing Ankara as the indispensable guardian of a strategic, highly sensitive, and closed maritime basin. The MCM and collective defense in the Black Sea . Faced with the growing militarization of Crimea and the deployment of Russian coastal missile systems, NATO established a trilateral force – Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria – which has been operational since July 2024: the MCM, or Mine Countermeasures Black Sea Task Group. Its primary mission is to secure the Black Sea against drifting mines and the sabotage of critical maritime infrastructure. Turkey plays a central role within the group, carrying out regular rotations to protect the Alliance’s eastern flank while respecting the Montreux Convention, an essential framework for maintaining balance and avoiding open escalation with Moscow.

Hezbollah-Israel: An Endless War in Whose Interests? (11)
By
Khalil Helou
Published
Jul 5, 2026 - 01:56

This series of articles aims to provide a clearer understanding of the current situation on the Lebanese scene in light of the past, setting aside passionate, ideological, or romanticized narratives that miss the realities on the ground, leaving readers to draw their own conclusions. The previous ten installments examined a reinterpretation of events surrounding Hezbollah's rise to power, from the Taif Agreement through the Israeli army's withdrawal from Lebanon in May 2000, up to the 2006 war and its aftermath. The deployment of the Lebanese army — known internationally as the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) — then under the command of General Michel Sleiman, to southern Lebanon was ordered by Fouad Siniora's government on August 16, 2006. This deployment, the first since 1968, was immediately launched at dawn on August 17 with the crossing of the Litani River via military Bailey bridges and improvised crossings, as the permanent bridges had been destroyed by Israeli bombardments. Although the LAF were far less equipped than they are today and had significantly fewer troops, this rapid deployment marked a historic turning point by restoring, for the first time since 1968, a state military presence south of the Litani — territory that had been under Hezbollah's control since 2000. Approved by the Council of Ministers on August 7 and framed within UN Resolution 1701, the operation called for a maximum force of 15,000 soldiers supported by UNIFIL, which was itself reinforced and expanded from 4,000 to 15,000 personnel. Deployment Details The LAF quickly deployed an initial contingent of 9,500 troops south of the Litani within the first few weeks. Due to a shortage of active personnel, 5,000 reservists were called up to fill the gap. The deployed forces consisted of four infantry brigades — namely the 6th th , 10th th , 11th th and 12th th brigades — initially reinforced and supported by the commando regiment, independent regiments, and engineer regiment detachments. The initial maneuver phase of the deployment included the progressive securing of main road arteries and key towns, notably Marjayoun, Tyre, Nabatiyeh, and Bint Jbeil, on a tight schedule. The crossing of the Litani and the initial establishment of tactical positions took place on August 17, followed by a gradual takeover of major traffic hubs that continued through the end of August. The deployment was officially completed on October 1, 2006, coinciding with the near-total withdrawal of Israeli forces, with the exception of the disputed area of Ghajar — a Syrian village in the occupied Golan Heights whose residents are either Syrian nationals or stateless individuals with no recognized identity, and who have illegally extended their village into Lebanese territory since 1975. This Israeli withdrawal was the second following that of the year 2000. On a structural level, the Lebanese army established a dedicated command for the area south of the Litani — something that had not existed before August 2006 — with its headquarters initially based in Tyre before being relocated to the Marjayoun barracks, overseeing tactical planning, logistics, and the local chain of command. Operational cooperation was closely synchronized with UNIFIL, with LAF units moving into specific positions as the Blue Helmets confirmed Israeli withdrawal from those points. Logistical and security missions were intensive: engineer units deployed Bailey bridges supplied by the United Kingdom to cross the Litani, cleared road axes of mines, disposed of unexploded ordnance, and secured approach routes, while dozens of fixed and mobile checkpoints were established on all roads leading to the south to control the flow of vehicles and people. fournis par le Royaume Uni pour franchir le Litani, procédé au déminage des axes routiers, traité les munitions non explosées et sécurisé les approches, tandis que des dizaines de check-points fixes et mobiles ont été implantés sur tous les itinéraires menant au Sud pour contrôler les flux de véhicules et de personnes. The stated political and operational objective was clear: to restore and assert Lebanese state sovereignty over the area, prohibit any parallel authority, and proceed, in accordance with the mandate, to seize illegal or openly visible weapons south of the Litani River. This mission generated considerable hope, but also foreshadowed anticipated tensions on the ground regarding the status of Hezbollah's weapons and the effective implementation of the state's monopoly on arms. The compromise between the State and Hezbollah, and the role of Émile Lahoud As far back as the 1990s, first as commander-in-chief of the army and later as president of the republic until 2006, Émile Lahoud played a central role in shielding Hezbollah's arsenal, acting as the movement's primary institutional, military, and legal guarantor against disarmament, and framing its illegal weapons—by any measure—as a complement to the supposedly limited capabilities of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). When the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 1559 in 2004, demanding the disarmament of all Lebanese militias, including the pro-Iranian one, Émile Lahoud erected an institutional shield against any enforcement targeting Hezbollah. Leveraging his presidential mandate—extended solely by the will of Syrian diktat—and faced with the impossibility of finding a legal status for Hezbollah, Lahoud used his platform to declare that the resolution did not apply to the pro-Iranian party, describing it as a "national liberation movement" and a "resistance" rather than a militia, thereby granting it a degree of legitimacy. This stance blocked administrative and military attempts to catalogue or seize Hezbollah's weapons, and prevented any coercive implementation of its disarmament. During the July 2006 war and the government deliberations surrounding Resolution 1701, Lahoud positioned himself as the unyielding defender of Hezbollah's strategic interests at the highest level of the state—even though the government in power at the time was historic: it was the first to be formed after the end of 30 years of Syrian occupation of Lebanon, and the first to include both Hezbollah ministers and ministers openly hostile to Syria, making it a national unity government. The prime minister was Fouad Siniora, from the sovereignist March 14 coalition, which held a majority of the 24 ministerial posts. The government also included five ministers from the Hezbollah-Amal coalition led by Nabih Berri, along with other ministers aligned with Émile Lahoud. During the tense cabinet sessions of August 2006, when the government majority sought a clear mandate for the army to confiscate weapons south of the Litani, Lahoud drew an absolute red line. Under his pressure, relayed by his allied ministers and the five Hezbollah-Amal coalition ministers, the government endorsed an operational compromise dubbed the "doctrine of invisibility." Under this doctrine, the army could deploy to the South but would not conduct systematic searches of private property or carry out forced disarmament as long as weapons were not openly displayed in public. This effectively undermined the implementation of Resolution 1701 from the very outset, sowing the seeds of the conflict to come. In his capacity as president and supreme commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, Lahoud ensured that the orders transmitted to the army commander-in-chief, General Michel Sleiman, included no mission to seize weapons caches—thereby guaranteeing that Hezbollah's military infrastructure, much of it underground or concealed, remained intact. Backed by Syrian influence — still significant in Lebanon despite the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanese territory — Émile Lahoud provided Hezbollah with a "state umbrella" that offered not only political protection but also rhetorical cover. Lahoud used his power to block institutional processes, allowing the pro-Iranian party to first preserve, and then throughout the following decade, consolidate and expand its arsenal without fear of intervention by the Lebanese security apparatus. This strategy had the lasting effect of entrenching Hezbollah's role, under the guise of national defense rhetoric and the preservation of its illegal arsenal, which came to be seen as an accepted — if not legitimized — feature of Lebanon's strategic landscape. Read more on this topic: Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war in whose interest? (10) Hezbollah-Israel: An Endless War in Whose Interests? (9) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (8) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (7) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (6) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (5) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (4) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (3) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (2) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (1)

Hezbollah-Israel: An Endless War in Whose Interests? (10)
By
Khalil Helou
Published
Jun 22, 2026 - 15:05

This series of articles aims to shed light on the current situation through the lens of history, setting aside passionate, ideological, or romanticized narratives that miss the mark on reality, and leaving readers to draw their own conclusions. The previous nine installments offered a reexamination of events surrounding Hezbollah's rise to power, from the Taif Agreement through Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon in May 2000, the establishment of a Hezbollah-controlled zone in the South, and the 2006 war. This article addresses the lessons of the 2006 war and its aftermath. In the operation "Truthful Promise" (el-Wa3ed el-Sadek, the name given to the July 2006 war), Hezbollah employed tactics rooted in hybrid asymmetric warfare, skillfully combining traditional guerrilla techniques, the heavy use of cutting-edge dual-purpose anti-tank missiles, and defense in depth across the entire area south of the Litani River and parts of its northern bank. Central to this strategy was the so-called "nature reserves" tactic — an intricate network of tunnels and buried bunkers designed to remain invisible in the face of Israeli air superiority, while enabling ambushes. This defensive approach was modeled on the Viet Cong and North Vietnamese Army during their war with the United States (1964–1973), when American forces enjoyed undisputed air supremacy. The pro-Iranian group demonstrated exceptional proficiency with fourth-generation anti-tank missiles, as outlined previously. At the same time, it sustained relentless harassment of northern Israel, which remained paralyzed throughout the war by daily Katyusha rocket fire — approximately 4,000 rockets in total, averaging 100 to 120 per day — launched from concealed mobile platforms. Furthermore, the militia's fighters had no need for logistical supply lines, as weapons, ammunition, food, and survival supplies had been stockpiled in underground depots over six years, and the war lasted only 33 days. Finally, Hezbollah waged an aggressive media war: the Al-Manar channel broadcast Hassan Nasrallah's speeches, which served as a psychological weapon to galvanize his supporters and erode Israeli public morale. In this regard, and as a telling example, on July 14, 2006, Hezbollah fighters struck an Israeli corvette off the coast of Beirut using a Chinese-made C802 Silkworm precision anti-ship missile supplied by Iran, catching Israeli intelligence completely off guard. The strike killed four sailors. The incident was a major tactical shock: the ship's automated defense systems had not been activated, as the command had deemed the threat of anti-ship missiles nonexistent. In a live radio address, Hassan Nasrallah invited Lebanese citizens to look out to sea and watch the vessel burn — a moment that proved to be a decisive turning point in the psychological warfare of the conflict. Summary of Israeli tactics The Israeli military, for its part, adopted a strategy centered on air superiority, the high technology of the era, and precision operations. However, it showed considerable hesitation when it came to launching a large-scale ground offensive, seemingly intent on replicating the model of the Second Gulf War in 1991, when US-led coalition forces conducted a prolonged air campaign before advancing on the ground in Operation Desert Storm. Israeli Chief of Staff Dan Halutz, himself a fighter pilot, failed to adapt his strategy to the new realities on the Lebanese ground imposed by Hezbollah. The Israeli air force managed to destroy almost all of Hezbollah's long-range missiles (Fajr and Zelzal) within the first hours of the conflict, along with a large number of missile launching pads, Hezbollah command posts, and ammunition depots. It also succeeded in isolating southern Lebanon by destroying strategic bridges and roads. Finally, there were successful deep commando raids, such as the one in Baalbek, where an Israeli special forces unit took control of a hospital on August 2, 2006, killing 10 Hezbollah fighters and 6 civilians and capturing several civilians who were later released. On the ground operations front, the advance toward the Litani River was only partially achieved. Elite troops managed to break through but were never able to establish effective control over the southern bank of the river before the ceasefire came into effect on August 14. The inability of infantry and armored units to secure the terrain against anti-tank missiles and to halt rocket fire on northern Israel represented the primary strategic failure. The army's equipment losses, aside from the Merkava tanks and the damaged naval vessel, included one helicopter shot down by an anti-tank missile, two others damaged in a collision, and several drones. This war marked the end of the military career of Chief of Staff Dan Halutz, who today (2026) is a fierce opponent of Netanyahu and frequently takes to the streets at the head of protests against the Prime Minister. The 33-Day War: Aftermath On the Lebanese side, the death toll is estimated at 1,100 civilians, 43 Lebanese soldiers and police officers—though they were not combatants—5 UN soldiers, between 250 and 600 Hezbollah fighters, 31 Hezbollah-allied militiamen, and 52 foreign civilians. On the Israeli side, 165 people were killed, including 119 soldiers. Lebanese material losses amounted to 30,000 residential units totally or partially destroyed in southern Lebanon and in Beirut's southern suburbs, in addition to bridges, roads, and infrastructure; overall damages were estimated at between 5 and 7 billion dollars. The number of people displaced to Beirut and Mount Lebanon reached nearly 685,000, while 200,000 fled to Syria, and between 300,000 and 500,000 people were displaced from northern Israel. End of the Conflict: Resolution 1701 The conflict ended on August 14, 2006, following the adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 1701. Israel at that point occupied a buffer zone approximately 10 to 30 kilometers deep from the Blue Line. As soon as the ceasefire was announced, and despite the destroyed roads, displaced residents returned en masse to their villages in the South. This was the fourth return of displaced persons to southern Lebanon—brought about not by the liberation of territory by force, but by international pressure, which Iran and Hezbollah have always relied upon, as in 1993, 1996, and 2000, with that pressure aimed at stabilizing the Middle East through arrangements that have invariably proven temporary. Resolution 1701 sought to establish a 'security zone' in southern Lebanon, between the Blue Line and the Litani River (located approximately 30 km to the north). However, its implementation was selective and incomplete, which led to the situation that prevails today. For the first time in nearly thirty years, the Lebanese army deployed 15,000 soldiers along the southern border, asserting the principle of state authority—in contrast to the rhetoric of then-President Emile Lahoud, who had consistently refused to deploy the army in the south in order to leave the region under Hezbollah's control. Also in accordance with Resolution 1701, the Israeli army withdrew from the areas it had occupied during the ground offensive, and UNIFIL was massively reinforced, growing from 3,000 to nearly 10,000 peacekeepers with an expanded mandate to monitor the cessation of hostilities and assist the Lebanese army in implementing Resolution 1701. Yet none of this came to pass in the 17 years that followed… Resolution 1701 stipulated that no armed group, other than the Lebanese army and UNIFIL, should be present between the Litani River and the border. However, the dominant factions within the Lebanese government chose submission, lacking any strategic vision and failing to capitalize on international pressure. Hezbollah, in collusion with them, agreed to pull back its uniformed fighters and visible heavy weapons, but maintained a complete covert presence. It rebuilt its network of tunnels and underground bunkers, and massively reconstituted and modernized its arsenal — including tens of thousands of rockets — right under UNIFIL's nose, through Syria, which served as a land bridge between Lebanon and Iran. Israel, for its part, continued to violate Lebanese airspace on a daily basis, arguing that this was necessary to monitor Hezbollah's activities in the absence of any real enforcement of the demilitarization provisions. Resolution 1701 succeeded in maintaining relative stability and preventing all-out war for 17 years (until October 2023), but it never resolved the underlying issue of Hezbollah's military presence in southern Lebanon. Read more on this topic: Hezbollah-Israel: An Endless War in Whose Interests? (9) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (8) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (7) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (6) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (5) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (4) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (3) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (2) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (1)

Hezbollah-Israel: An Endless War in Whose Interests? (9)
By
Khalil Helou
Published
Jun 11, 2026 - 16:08

This series of articles aims to provide a clearer understanding of the current situation in light of the past, free from passionate, ideological, or romanticized narratives that miss the realities on the ground, leaving readers to draw their own conclusions. The previous eight installments offered a reexamination of events surrounding Hezbollah's rise to power since the Taif Agreement, through the Israeli army's withdrawal from Lebanon in May 2000, the establishment of a Hezbollah-controlled zone in the South, and the 2006 war. This article picks up where that conflict left off. The Battle of Wadi Al Houjeyr, also known as the Battle of Wadi Slouqi, took place in the central sector of the Lebanese-Israeli border between August 11 and 13, 2006. It was one of the costliest engagements for the Israeli army. The Israeli forces' objective was to cross the Slouqi valley heading northward to reach the Litani River before the anticipated ceasefire came into effect. The Slouqi valley, also known as Wadi Al Houjeyr, is a steep and narrow gorge. Hezbollah fighters made extensive use of Kornet anti-tank missiles — capable of piercing double armor — from concealed positions on the surrounding heights and in nearby villages. As soon as Israeli Merkava tanks entered the gorge, they came under crossfire from Kornet operators. The initial lack of coordination between the attackers' infantry and armored units left the tanks exposed to the concealed missile operators. The infantry was supposed to cover the tanks' advance with mortar fire to suppress the hidden missile teams, but this was not carried out effectively. This battle is often referred to as the "Merkava massacre" by Hezbollah supporters. Israeli losses amounted to 33 soldiers killed and dozens wounded, with around twenty Merkavas hit, two of which were destroyed. On the Hezbollah side, approximately forty fighters were killed. The Israeli army ultimately succeeded in crossing the valley on August 13; however, the ceasefire that came into effect on August 14, 2006 halted any further advance. Along this axis, Israeli troops had passed through the village of Ghandourieh and stopped north of it, just a few kilometers short of the Litani — their original objective. Targeting bridges, roads, and infrastructure During the 2006 war, Israel targeted 109 bridges and 130 roads across Lebanon over the course of 33 days. One objective was the tactical isolation of southern Lebanon through the destruction of bridges over the Litani River, severing communication routes between the South and Beirut. This was intended to prevent Hezbollah from sending reinforcements, ammunition, and military equipment to the front. It also served two additional purposes: the first was to prevent Hezbollah from deploying heavy missiles to parts of Lebanon beyond the South — for example, a bridge linking Baabda to Beirut was destroyed after a missile, concealed in a 40-foot container, had crossed it along the Baabda–Wadi Chahrour road; the second objective was to prevent the two Israeli soldiers captured at the start of the war from being transferred out of the country, by destroying bridges and roads leading to Syria. The bombing of "vital" infrastructure — including Rafic Hariri International Airport and the Jiyeh power plant — was intended to cripple the Lebanese economy and pressure the Lebanese government into disarming Hezbollah. The destruction of these routes severely hampered the delivery of humanitarian aid, leaving many southern communities cut off and isolated. This strategy was part of the Dahiya doctrine, an Israeli military tactic of asymmetric warfare that advocates the use of massive and disproportionate force against civilian infrastructure in areas serving as bases for Hezbollah, Hamas, and other armed groups, in retaliation for attacks on Israeli territory. First applied during the 2006 war and formally articulated in 2008 by Gadi Eisenkot, the Israeli Chief of Staff, this approach treats villages or neighborhoods from which missiles are fired not as civilian areas, but as military bases. The causes of Israel's tactical failures An Israeli government inquiry commission, chaired by retired judge Eliyahu Winograd, was tasked with examining Israel's political and military failures during the 2006 war against Hezbollah. The commission's final report concluded that the conflict represented a strategic and military failure for Israel, citing shortcomings in command and preparedness. As a result, Israel overhauled its ground doctrine, accelerated the development of a short-range missile defense system known as the Iron Dome, and rolled out an active protection system called Trophy across its armored vehicles. This system, later sold to the U.S. military, works by intercepting anti-tank missiles before they strike the vehicle's hull. A Merkava tank during exercises in the Negev. (AFP) The Winograd Report revealed the vulnerability of the Merkava tank to RPG-29 rockets and to Hezbollah's precision Kornet and Metis-M missiles, all of which use tandem warheads — dual-charge designs capable of penetrating the Merkava's dual-layer internal and external armor. The external armor is reactive, meaning it explodes and deflects conventional anti-tank missiles, but tandem-charge missiles are designed to overcome this and pierce through to the interior of the tank. During the 2006 war, 52 Merkava tanks were struck by these munitions, resulting in the deaths of 30 soldiers. Of those, five were completely destroyed, while 24 were penetrated and 23 suffered minor damage. All 47 of the damaged tanks were later repaired and returned to service. Beyond the effectiveness of tandem-charge rockets and missiles, the Winograd Report found that the Merkavas were hit primarily due to systemic tactical errors in how they were deployed. The report also criticized the lack of coordination between the Israeli air force, infantry, and armored units, as well as the inadequate preparation of reservists, who had not conducted any armored maneuvers in six years. A first in military history The large-scale use of RPG-29 rockets and Kornet and Metis missiles — all fitted with tandem warheads — marked a turning point in military history. Although they had been used sporadically before, during the Chechen wars in the 1990s and against American forces in Iraq in 2003, the 2006 conflict was the first time a militia demonstrated the effectiveness of deploying such weapons en masse against tanks equipped with reactive armor. Furthermore, Hezbollah's sophisticated tactics and its preparations for this war highlighted the extent of Iranian involvement in Lebanon and provided a masterclass in asymmetric warfare strategy. The Ukrainians almost certainly drew lessons from this conflict, as their tactics during the early weeks of the 2022 Russian offensive closely mirrored those of Hezbollah in many respects — except that their tandem-charge anti-tank missiles were Western-made (the Javelin, the equivalent of the Kornet, and the NLAW, the equivalent of the Metis-M). Read more on this topic: Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (8) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (7) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (6) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (5) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (4) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (3) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (2) Hezbollah-Israel, an endless war serving whose interests? (1)

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