Uncertainty Clouds Resumption of U.S.-Iran Talks in Doha

Has the uncertainty surrounding the long-announced resumption of U.S.-Iran talks in Doha over the past two days brought negotiations back to square one? Probably not, though it’s a fair question to ask. The picture is more nuanced, but the road ahead is far from easy. Tehran and Washington seem reluctant to make any further concessions beyond those already made under the memorandum of understanding they signed on June 18.

While Doha is expected to host U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner today, alongside an Iranian technical delegation that will be joined on Wednesday by Iran’s deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs, Kazem Gharibabadi, Qatari officials say that no direct high-level meeting with Iranian officials has been scheduled for now.

Majed Al-Ansari, spokesperson for Qatar’s Foreign Ministry, told a press conference earlier in the day that no direct meeting between U.S. and Iranian officials was planned in the coming days.

Quoted by Iranian and Yemeni news agencies, Kazem Gharibabadi said the first round of technical discussions, through the designated working groups, would take place “once the necessary conditions have been met and after agreement has been reached on the date and venue.” He added that “consultations on this matter are ongoing through the countries serving as mediators.”

On Wednesday, Gharibabadi is also due to meet with Qatari officials to discuss the $6 billion in frozen Iranian assets, Iran’s Foreign Ministry announced Tuesday evening. The frozen assets remain a priority for the Islamic Republic as it grapples with mounting financial difficulties.

The Strait of Hormuz and Frozen Assets

According to Majed Al-Ansari, U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who are in Qatar, will meet only with Qatari mediators and officials to assess the implementation of the memorandum of understanding signed in mid-June. The talks will cover a range of regional issues, including Iran and Lebanon.

In other words, the mediators are once again at work in an effort to find common ground between the United States and Iran, which believes it has already made sufficient concessions under the memorandum of understanding.

The key question now is how the disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and the frozen Iranian assets will be resolved. Tehran continues to assert what it describes as its right to control the strait, a prospect fiercely opposed by Arab states, the United States, and European countries. Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson was unequivocal: Doha has no intention of accepting Iranian control of the strait.

Majed Al-Ansari also confirmed that the frozen Iranian funds, whose release is provided for under the memorandum of understanding, have yet to be transferred.

For its part, Tehran has maintained a hardline stance. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei warned that any violation of the memorandum of understanding by Washington would trigger an immediate response. “No action will go unanswered,” he said, referring to U.S. strikes on Iranian targets after Tehran attacked oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz through the shipping corridor established by Oman in coordination with Washington.

Baghaei also stressed that the United States must honor its commitment to bring an end to the fighting on all fronts, particularly in Lebanon. According to him, Washington must, if necessary, compel Israel to comply with the terms of the agreement.

Pezeshkian Condemns Attacks on Negotiators

The importance of a ceasefire on the Lebanese front was also underscored by Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian, who, during a visit to Qom Province, used the occasion to stress that the agreement with Washington had been concluded “in full coordination with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and with the backing of the Supreme National Security Council.” His remarks, however, once again underscored the existence of two rival camps within Iran’s leadership.

According to Iran International, Pezeshkian defended the U.S. negotiating team by stressing that it had coordinated every step of the process with Mojtaba Khamenei. “Unfortunately, certain groups, echoing the psychological warfare being waged by hostile media outlets, are seeking to undermine this achievement by attacking the negotiating team and casting doubt on national decisions,” he said.

According to Iran International, the remarks come as his administration faces mounting pressure from ultraconservative factions opposed to dialogue with Washington. The outlet notes that several hardline figures have accused the president and his negotiating team of making concessions, while also questioning the Supreme Leader’s backing for key security decisions.

Waiting Game in Lebanon

In Lebanon, where the framework agreement with Israel is also meeting resistance, implementation of its provisions is still pending. The deal calls for, among other things, a gradual Israeli withdrawal from areas currently occupied in southern Lebanon, where regular forces are to be deployed, as well as the phased dismantling of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure.

Israel, as noted, is expected to withdraw first from “pilot zones,” in an operation coordinated with U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), whose commander, Admiral Brad Cooper, visited Beirut and Tel Aviv on Monday.

The day after the visit, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun met with the army commander, General Rodolphe Haykal, for talks on the military’s role in implementing the framework agreement.

On the ground, the situation remains volatile. Israeli artillery targeted the villages of Hebbariyeh in the Marjayoun district, Beit Yahoun in the Bint Jbeil district, and Majdel Zoun in the Tyre district. The latter has now been split in two following the demolition of an underground Hezbollah tunnel, which triggered a massive explosion.

Meanwhile, Israeli media reported a visit by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz to the sector controlled by the Israeli army in southern Lebanon. Speaking to troops, Netanyahu said that Israel “has begun dismantling what he called the Iranian axis, by striking the Islamic Republic directly and establishing a buffer zone in southern Lebanon.” He said the army would remain in the south of the country “as long as Hezbollah is not disarmed and continues to pose a threat to Israel.” He also stated that the group’s military arsenal “is only 8 percent of what it was before the war,” and that “9,000 fighters have been eliminated.”