Today's Essential

The fourth round of direct Lebanese-Israeli negotiations convened Tuesday evening at the U.S. State Department in Washington, under American auspices, as tensions remained high in southern Lebanon, where the Israeli army continues its military operations and presses further north of the Litani River. The Lebanese-Israeli talks, in which former Lebanese ambassador Simon Karam is participating on the Lebanese side, are set to resume Wednesday in the American capital. On the military front, Israeli aircraft carried out a series of airstrikes throughout Tuesday and into the evening, targeting positions as well as weapons and ammunition depots in several villages across the districts of Tyre, Bint Jbeil and Nabatiyeh. The cities of Tyre and Nabatiyeh were not spared. By the end of the day, the Israeli army reported the presence of “dozens of Hezbollah militiamen” who had reportedly retreated into Tyre’s Christian quarter.

The suspense of the day on Monday, June 1st, centered this time on the fate of the southern suburbs, which had experienced the past twenty-four hours under the threat of imminent Israeli bombardments. Late in the evening, President Donald Trump announced the conclusion of an agreement providing for a halt to Hezbollah fire against Israel in exchange for a suspension of Israeli bombing of the southern suburbs, which was about to be carried out. The White House chief made this announcement on his social network Truth Social, indicating that he had held a "very productive" conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In an allusion to the raid that appeared imminent against the southern suburbs, he indicated that "no troops will go to Beirut, and the forces that were on their way have turned back."

Negotiations and dialogue in Washington, conflict and airstrikes in Lebanon. Saturday, May 30 was marked by an intervention from Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, who condemned Israeli airstrikes, while the Pentagon assured that discussions between Israeli and Lebanese military officials in Washington on Friday, May 29 had been "constructive." In a televised address, Nawaf Salam argued that Israel's "scorched earth policy" and "collective punishment" would bring it neither security nor stability. Following new Israeli-Lebanese discussions at the Pentagon, as the Israeli military continues to advance deep into Lebanese territory, Salam nonetheless defended the continuation of negotiations with Israel. These constitute "the least costly path" for Beirut, emphasized the head of government.

The scenario from last weekend repeated itself on this Friday, May 29th. The media and public opinion experienced another roller coaster ride regarding American-Iranian negotiations mediated by Pakistan, aimed at ending the war situation that began on February 28th, as a prelude to bilateral talks on the major issues fueling the conflict between the United States and the Islamic Republic. As was the case last weekend, a wave of optimism swept through Friday afternoon, with reports of an imminent official announcement of a 'framework agreement' between Washington and Tehran. President Donald Trump was expected to publicly announce that he was lifting the naval blockade imposed on Iranian ports and that he was preparing to hold a meeting at the White House with his team of senior officials and advisors to 'make a final decision' regarding the emerging framework agreement.

Lebanese citizens, and the peoples of the Levant region more broadly, apparently must resign themselves to being regularly subjected to a rollercoaster of developments regarding the Iranian conflict. On Thursday afternoon, reports from the American website Axios indicated that a framework agreement had been concluded between US and Iranian negotiators. The same sources claimed that a copy of this memorandum of understanding had been transmitted to the White House and that President Donald Trump had requested "a few days of reflection" before endorsing the text. A few hours later, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards appeared eager to "facilitate" the task for the American president by emphasizing, through the Tasnim agency which reflects their viewpoint, that no agreement has yet been reached between Americans and Iranians.

Wednesday, May 27 ended with two developments that offer little cause for optimism: during an expanded meeting of his ministerial team, President Donald Trump emphasized that he "is not satisfied with what Iran is proposing" for the memorandum of understanding currently being negotiated between the two countries; at the same time, the Israeli military was recording a "first" by asking residents Wednesday evening to evacuate "all of South Lebanon" and retreat "north of the Zahrani River", a few kilometers south of Sidon! The overall political climate began to turn red in the middle of the day following reports from Iran's official television regarding the content of the draft memorandum being discussed between American and Iranian negotiators, through Pakistani mediators. Iranian television, widely picked up by the media, thus reported having obtained "a draft of an initial unofficial framework agreement for a protocol agreement with the United States".

In the wake of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s threats to “crush Hezbollah” and expand his military operation into Lebanon, the country has been swept into a fresh spiral of violence that reignited fears of a return to open confrontation. Those fears are all the more well-founded given that the Israeli army has begun extending the so-called security zone it controls in southern Lebanon. Meanwhile, the Israeli leader – who has secured American approval for a large-scale operation against Hezbollah – reaffirmed on Tuesday that he had no intention of “taking his foot off the accelerator,” stating that his army is intensifying its operations in Lebanon and “securing strategic positions.” The prime minister also pointed to a “national effort aimed at countering the threat of Hezbollah’s explosive drones.”

On this Monday, May 25, the mood was a far cry from Saturday’s apparent enthusiasm over what had been described as an imminent regional breakthrough, driven by an Iranian-American statement of intent expected to kick-start a second round of negotiations between Washington and Tehran. To be sure, talks have picked up pace, with the various parties involved in mediation reporting progress. Yet, as the saying goes, the devil is in the details – and those details remain many. As of Monday, officials are still only speaking of a deal that “could be concluded in the coming days.” On Saturday, Washington and Tehran had presented it as almost imminent.

American President Donald Trump stated a few days ago that the Iranian regime has been "pulling the wool over our eyes (the United States and the Western world) for 47 years." One could reasonably add that in the current context, it is essentially public opinion in several Levantine countries that is being misled, particularly given the flood of information on Saturday about the imminence of a "memorandum of understanding" between Washington and Tehran, from which it appears, at least judging by the leaks to the media, that President Trump seems to have essentially given in to Iran's main conditions.

On Friday, Iran had still not met American conditions for resuming negotiations with Washington, which is displaying cautious optimism about a possible breakthrough. Global stock markets were indeed trading in the green during the day, buoyed by hope sustained by the diplomatic pressure being exerted to reach a statement of intent that would serve as a basis for resuming Iranian-American talks. Pakistan's army chief, Asim Munir, is expected in Tehran for talks with senior officials, according to Iran's official news agency, IRNA. Reuters reported the presence of a Qatari delegation in Iran as part of a mission conducted in coordination with Washington, while the Axios website indicates that Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey are also involved in ongoing diplomatic efforts.