From Lucerne to Washington, Lebanon defends its sovereignty

Negotiations between Iranian and American delegations, following the framework agreement signed by both parties last week, continued on Monday in Lucerne, Switzerland. That said, this diplomatic process is still in its early stages, and many grey areas remain.

Questions are mounting, however: are we heading toward an era in which Iran will reclaim its regional influence, or rather toward a period of regional balance of power? One place where many questions are being asked is certainly Lebanon.

On Monday evening, a U.S. official announced an agreement between the United States, Lebanon, and Israel to establish a ceasefire monitoring mechanism in southern Lebanon under the supervision of CENTCOM, the U.S. Central Command. The official added that the agreement was preceded by a call from Secretary of State Marco Rubio with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The Lebanese issue was at the heart of the talks in Switzerland, with Iran seeking to take credit for the ceasefire in the south, even as direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel remain scheduled for this Tuesday in Washington.

Given the talks initiated by JD Vance with the Iranians in Switzerland regarding southern Lebanon — without any prior consultation with the Lebanese authorities, which constitutes a serious diplomatic blunder — President Joseph Aoun was quick to set the record straight, stating that Lebanon welcomes "any assistance to end the war," while making clear that he draws a distinction between assistance and interference, in an obvious reference to Iran.

"We are a sovereign country and no one negotiates on our behalf," he stated unequivocally.

Lebanon's Ambassador to Washington, Nada Hamadé Moawad, reached out to senior U.S. officials to convey this position directly, stressing that any dealings concerning Lebanon must be conducted in coordination with President Aoun himself.

It was in response to this firm stance taken by Baabda that JD Vance, U.S. negotiator Jared Kushner, and Qatar's Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani called the President of the Republic to discuss with him the measures raised in Switzerland aimed at reinforcing the ceasefire in Lebanon — measures that would take the form of "de-escalation cells."

These cells would be overseen by committees comprising Lebanese, American, and Iranian members — a measure that mirrors the "pilot zones" mentioned in the direct negotiations with Israel in Washington.

President Aoun's sharp response to talks conducted without coordination with the Lebanese authorities was not only a reaction to the negotiations themselves, but also to the behavior of all factions within the Iranian camp.

The most striking example of this can be seen in the banners erected along the airport road featuring the slain Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his son, the presumed future Supreme Leader (still nowhere to be seen) Mojtaba Khamenei, alongside a large "Thank you Iran, ever faithful!"

Beyond the repeated statements by Hezbollah officials criticizing the direct negotiations with Israel and praising the position of the mullahs' regime, the commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Ismail Qaani, issued a highly significant threat against Israel on Monday.

"If you do not withdraw voluntarily [from southern Lebanon], you will suffer a defeat comparable to the saga of 2000," he said.

In doing so, Iran directly claimed ownership of what had previously been a source of Hezbollah's pride: the Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon on May 25, 2000.

Nuclear issues, wheat, and corn in Lucerne…

In Lucerne, despite the tensions on Sunday evening, talks continued throughout Sunday night into Monday. By Monday morning, signals from both sides appeared positive, even though differences of opinion persist. The official delegations departed, leaving 'technical' delegations behind to continue the discussions.

The previous day, sharp statements from US President Donald Trump — who threatened to strike Iran if it did not 'stop supporting its proxies' (most notably Hezbollah in Lebanon) — had caused the Iranian delegation to walk out of the negotiating room prematurely, raising fears of a deadlock.

However, on Monday morning, the Pakistani and Qatari governments announced that 'encouraging progress' had been made. The talks resulted in 'a roadmap for discussions spanning 60 days' and paved the way for immediate technical negotiations.

For his part, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi proudly declared that the talks had yielded 'major progress,' expressing particular satisfaction over the lifting of restrictions on oil and petrochemical exports. He confirmed the removal of the blockade on Iranian ports and the unfreezing of certain Iranian assets.

On the nuclear file, Iran acknowledged 'very brief discussions' during the talks in Switzerland. The spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry assured that no details had yet been addressed. Meanwhile, Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian is expected in Pakistan tomorrow, Tuesday, to continue discussions related to the talks.

US Vice President JD Vance, who led the American delegation, was particularly forthcoming with statements. He assessed that the talks had produced a very solid foundation, highlighting that the Iranians had agreed to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to return and conduct inspections on their soil — something the Iranians subsequently flatly denied. He expressed confidence that Iran's nuclear program was definitively a thing of the past, in contrast to the vague statements made by the Iranians on that front.

Later in the day, JD Vance outlined the financial terms of the 'deal' at a press conference, attempting to justify them to the American public by emphasizing that 'the unfrozen Iranian funds will serve the interests of American farmers' — a hint at potential future trade deals, particularly involving wheat and corn. He was careful to state that the United States would ensure Iran does not 'fund terrorism' with the funds it receives — a response to the mounting criticism already targeting these talks.

The Hill of Ali al-Taher

On the Israeli front, de-escalation appears to be the order of the day for now. The Israeli army reportedly issued a demobilization notice to its conscripts due to the ceasefire, according to Israel's Channel 12.

On the ground, the south was calm for the third consecutive day, with only minor violations reported. The ceasefire provided an opportunity for a cautious return to frontline villages, but also for the discovery of bodies that had remained buried under the rubble.

Another noteworthy media report, cited by Channel 12, offers an explanation for the intensity of the fighting around the strategic hill of Ali al-Taher, in the highlands of Nabatieh in the south.

According to the report, the area is a key Hezbollah stronghold — a network of tunnels managed in part by generals from Iran's Revolutionary Guards.

It is the proximity of Israeli troops to this site that, according to the report, explains Iran's sudden interest in a ceasefire in southern Lebanon.

Israel, for its part, certainly has no intention of leaving this strategically significant area to Hezbollah, and is already seeking, through negotiations, to have Ali el-Taher included among the "pilot zones" placed under the control of the Lebanese army… with the aim of driving Hezbollah out.

Could this be the potential trigger for renewed fighting should these attempts fail?

In any case, both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz declared on Monday that "the Israeli army retains freedom of movement in Lebanon."