Weekly essentials

Rather than attacking American or Israeli interests head-on, the Iranian regime appears to be pushing its proxies toward confrontation elsewhere: the Houthis with Saudi Arabia, and Hezbollah with domestic opponents in Lebanon. Iran’s proxies in the region are increasingly going on the offensive, but not against their usual enemies, the United States and Israel. With Israel’s parliamentary elections just days away and the US midterm elections a few weeks off, the Iranian front around the Strait of Hormuz is (more or less) quiet, while in southern Lebanon, the Israeli military continues its attacks without resistance from Hezbollah.

While the U.S.-Iran front remains more or less calm, two troubling signs marked the past week: the escalation on the Yemeni front and the seizure in Lebanon of a truck carrying explosives being transported by Hezbollah militiamen, which has raised fears of further suspected assassinations ordered by their Iranian patron. With Israel’s legislative elections approaching on October 27, and as the war in the Middle East weighs increasingly heavily on the U.S. midterm elections due to take place in early November, violence persists in the region—openly or covertly—on several fronts. Apart from occasional attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, the most worrying signs emerged elsewhere this week: in Saudi Arabia, where Houthi attacks are becoming increasingly deadly, and in Lebanon, where the arrest of pro-Iranian Hezbollah militiamen in possession of half a ton of explosives has revived fears of political assassinations.

President Donald Trump's threats against Iran in the wake of Wednesday's Flydubai flight incident, along with the increased U.S. military presence in the region, show that war is a real possibility, even if the door to negotiations remains open. At least in principle, since Iranian officials continue to use radical rhetoric and believe they are in a position to dictate terms to the United States. At the same time, they are escalating matters in Yemen through their ally, the Houthis. The failed hijacking attempt—or deliberate crash—of the Emirati Flydubai aircraft operating the Dubai–Tel Aviv route, carrying more than 150 Israeli passengers on September 30, clearly dominated the past week.

To follow and understand the war—or rather, wars—in the Middle East during the week of September 21–27, 2026, one had to look instead… to New York. Regional conflicts heavily shaped some of the most closely watched speeches at the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly, including those by U.S. President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas (speaking remotely). Beyond the speeches, the plenary assembly provided an opportunity for important bilateral meetings, two of which stand out: a U.S.-Iranian meeting that failed to produce the hoped-for results, and a Lebanese-Iranian meeting that, according to various sources, turned sour.

Following drone attacks by the pro-Iranian Yemeni militia on the Saudi capital this weekend, the United States says it fears “a rapid escalation” in the region and issued a warning to its citizens on Sunday. On the Lebanese front, a preparatory meeting in Paris for a conference in support of the Lebanese army produced no conclusive results, at a time when a confrontation with the Israeli army in the south appears to be a worrying sign. At the end of a week marked above all in the Middle East by the Houthis’ continued escalation against Saudi Arabia, one might think that the Iranian front remained at a standstill. As usual since the conflict began, statements by US President Donald Trump have sent mixed signals about his country’s military or diplomatic intentions.

The pro-Iranian Yemeni Houthi militia advanced rapidly this week toward coastal areas along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on the Red Sea, in an offensive bearing Iran’s hallmark and placing particular pressure on Saudi Arabia. Iran, for its part, did not respond to the Israeli military’s destruction of the strategic Ali el-Taher site in southern Lebanon, which was built over 20 years with support from the Revolutionary Guards. The most significant development in the Middle East during the week of September 7–13, 2026, was probably the rapid advance of the pro-Iranian Houthi rebels toward Yemeni areas on the coast of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea. This came despite ongoing clashes with pro-Saudi government forces in a country that has been divided and at war for years.

While the United States had appeared to be relying solely on economic warfare against Iran, the US military abruptly carried out strikes on Iranian territory on Tuesday in retaliation for attacks targeting oil tankers, setting off a spiral of violence over the course of the week. In Lebanon, Israel released several civilians held in its prisons, while its army seized the strategic Ali el-Taher hill and continued its heavy strikes in the area it controls in the south of the country. The week from August 31 to September 6 was marked by a sharp acceleration of events in the Middle East, after the previous one had seemed defined by relative stagnation.

While Iranian-American talks remain stalled amid fierce rhetoric on both sides, it is the front in southern Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah that has seen a gradual escalation this week, reaching a peak on Saturday — pointing to potentially unpredictable developments in the days ahead. The week of August 10–16, 2026 was marked in South Lebanon by an escalation that built steadily until the bloody Saturday of August 15. There is a sense of déjà vu — the center of gravity of a regional conflict shifting once again toward a small country, at a time when, on the main front with Iran, the belligerents' war of words has replaced actual hostilities… at least for now.

The Trump Administration displayed a troubling and unusual passivity last week in the face of aggression (and arrogance) from the radical wing of the Iranian regime and its proxies — both in the Strait of Hormuz and on the front opened by the pro-Iranian Yemeni Houthi militia against Saudi Arabia. It was against this backdrop that a mutual defense pact was sealed this week between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, widely seen as a kind of Sunni NATO against Iran. The past week in the Middle East will likely be defined by a single image: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif signing a mutual defense pact on Friday in Mecca — a location of profound symbolic significance.

Once again — and for the umpteenth time (the previous instances on this front are too numerous to count!) — President Donald Trump announced in the early hours of Sunday, August 2, the "cancellation" of the "large-scale" attack that had been described as "imminent" against the Iranian regime. In recent days, the US Administration had fueled — through extensive media fanfare — an atmosphere suggesting that a major attack targeting the Islamic Republic's energy infrastructure was planned for that weekend. The announcement of these large-scale military operations was accompanied by statements from President Trump and senior American officials condemning the conduct of Iran's leaders and denouncing, in very harsh terms, their negative attitude and deceptive behavior during talks with US negotiators.