A New Chapter in Lebanon–Syria Relations?

Thursday’s headlines in Lebanon were dominated by the visit of Syrian Foreign Minister Assaad Chibani to Beirut, where he met with all of Lebanon’s leading political and religious figures, as well as representatives of the country’s main sectarian parties – with the notable exception of Hezbollah. For those who lived through the years of Syrian tutelage over Lebanon – or occupation, as some prefer to describe it – the visit was anything but ordinary, as were the statements that accompanied it. One of the most noteworthy came from President Joseph Aoun, who said he remained “committed to fraternal relations” between the two countries, founded on “coordination, cooperation, and non-interference in each other’s internal affairs.”

This visit cannot be seen in isolation. It comes amid a recent wave of threats from U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting the use of Syrian forces to disarm Hezbollah – a possibility that Syrian officials, including President Ahmad al-Sharaa, have repeatedly and categorically denied. Chibani’s visit therefore appeared intended to reassure Lebanon’s leaders on this point.

It is also worth bearing in mind the framework agreement signed by Lebanon and Israel in Washington. The process excluded all Arab countries and reflected Beirut’s determination to keep the Lebanese track entirely separate from other regional issues. Syria’s new leadership is likely seeking to test the water and better understand the contours of the situation.

Both in its symbolism and its substance, Chibani’s visit was met with a largely positive response on the Lebanese scene. He presented President Joseph Aoun with an invitation to pay an official visit to Syria. Statements emphasizing respect for the security and sovereignty of both countries were repeatedly made. The Syrian foreign minister repeatedly stressed Damascus’ determination to strengthen cooperation with Lebanon. As part of that effort, Chibani and Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam signed an agreement establishing a joint commission to deepen bilateral cooperation across all sectors, “in a manner that serves our shared interests,” as Salam put it.

Meetings with a Wide Range of Figures

Listing all the figures met by a Syrian minister during an official visit would no doubt be a tedious exercise, but it is nonetheless worth noting that he met a striking range of political and religious figures in a single day, including, notably (with Hezbollah excluded): President Aoun, Prime Minister Salam, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rai, Grand Mufti of the Republic Abdellatif Derian, former Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, Kataeb Party leader Samy Gemayel, Deputy Prime Minister Tarek Mitri, and Foreign Minister Joe Raggi.

Chibani referred to Hezbollah only after his meeting with Berri, saying he remained “open” to such a meeting “if it serves the interests of both countries.”

It should be recalled in this context that Hezbollah played a key role in supporting the former Damascus regime and has been fighting since 2011 against the groups from which Syria’s new leadership emerged. Clashes have repeatedly erupted along the border since the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024, between groups affiliated with the pro-Iranian party and Syria’s new security forces.

While the minister continued his tour in Beirut, an explosion rocked a café in central Damascus on Thursday around 3 p.m., leaving at least seven people dead and 22 injured, according to the Syrian Ministry of Health. Syrian authorities said the device was “improvised.”

The AFP reported that it was the deadliest attack since a church bombing in June 2025 that killed 25 people. The attack was claimed by the Islamic State group.

A Coalition or Not Against the Washington Agreement?

In Lebanon too, the signing in Washington last Friday of the framework agreement between Lebanese and Israeli representatives continues to stir controversy. Reports suggesting the possible formation of a four-way coalition to bring it down in Parliament – uniting the blocs led by Nabih Berri, Walid Jumblatt, Gebran Bassil’s Free Patriotic Movement, and Hezbollah – are beginning to unravel.

In the wake of Bassil’s visit to Berri on Wednesday, which fueled speculation, Thursday brought an unexpected development from Jumblatt. In remarks to the French-language daily L’Orient-Le Jour, he said he would “not be part of a coalition to bring down the framework agreement,” while still describing the text as a “misstep” by the state and calling for its revision.

Jumblatt reiterated his criticism on the sidelines of the Syrian foreign minister’s visit to his residence in Beirut, speaking in somewhat cryptic terms. He said he “preferred a balanced relationship with Syria to an agreement that could be worse than the May 17 accord,” referring to the 1983 agreement between Lebanon and Israel. It was eventually abrogated, under the influence of the former Syrian regime of Hafez al-Assad.

Against this at best ambivalent stance from Jumblatt and the openly hostile position of Hezbollah, whose MP Hassan Fadlallah once again described the text as a “capitulation”, Thursday also saw several sovereigntist parties step up their support for direct negotiations with Israel and for the efforts of Aoun and Salam. In an interview, the Lebanese Forces leader said the agreement was the only viable path to securing Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon, as well as Hezbollah’s disarmament, and the restoration of full Lebanese sovereignty.

It should be noted in this context that Samy Gemayel and Michel Mouawad, head of the Independence Movement, met with President Aoun at the Baabda Palace, leading sizeable delegation. Both reaffirmed their support for the head of state.

It is also worth noting a statement by Berri in an interview with a local newspaper on Thursday, in which he said he was “ready” for a compromise on the framework agreement, should there be the political will to do so. A potential political turning point?

Negotiations after the funerals

On Iran-U.S. negotiation track, the process has clearly been postponed until after the funeral ceremonies for former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an Israeli strike at the very beginning of the war on February 28. The long-delayed funerals, originally scheduled for March, will last several days and are expected to be used by the Tehran authorities as an opportunity to rekindle a sense of allegiance among supporters of the Islamic Republic.

Tensions between Washington and Tehran remain palpable. While Iran continues to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, the United States on Thursday took a firm stance, insisting that conditions in the strait must return to their pre-war status – i.e. open to all navigation, according to statements reported by the al-Hadath channel.

Also on Thursday, the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting over the war in the Middle East at Bahrain’s request. Meanwhile, Iran’s ambassador to the UN filed a complaint over recent remarks by Israel’s defense minister, who described Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei as a “target to be eliminated.”