Today's Essential

Pakistani diplomacy is active on two fronts, Lebanese and Iranian, with the official visit of the commander-in-chief of the army, General Rodolphe Haykal, to Islamabad, and that of Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi to Tehran. Though different, both missions are part of sustained efforts to restore calm in the region. The Lebanese army announced Saturday the departure of its commander for Islamabad, at the invitation of his Pakistani counterpart and the defense minister, without specifying the purpose of the visit. Because of friction between Beirut and Tehran, exacerbated by Wednesday's Lebanese-Israeli ceasefire agreement, all signs point to General Haykal's trip to Islamabad as part of Pakistan's mediation efforts between the United States and Iran. And for good reason: the Hezbollah file is among the points of contention between Washington and Tehran. Concerned with preserving its influence in Lebanon, which it considers a satellite state, the Islamic Republic has no intention of relinquishing this trump card for its upcoming negotiations with Washington. It demonstrated this once again when it openly contested Thursday the ceasefire agreement, which is nonetheless a Lebanese sovereign decision. Iranian opposition, echoed by Hezbollah in rejecting the agreement in turn, complicates the implementation of the document. Three Lebanese soldiers killed in the south Besides, the ceasefire, dependent on the pro-Iranian formation ceasing fire against Israel, is still forthcoming. The war continues at the same pace since Wednesday in southern Lebanon, where Israel says it struck "approximately 150 Hezbollah targets" in 48 hours. Three Lebanese soldiers were also killed Saturday in an Israeli strike between Khardali and Nabatiyé. Strongly condemned by Lebanese authorities, this unjustified attack is under investigation in Tel Aviv, according to the Israeli military spokesperson, who mentioned the possibility of an error related, according to him, to "a movement that was deemed suspicious near a combat zone." This attack was immediately exploited by Hezbollah, still lacking arguments to justify the destructive adventure it has dragged Lebanon into. According to it, the raid that killed a brigadier general, a captain, and a soldier "is the consequence of the government's disregard for sovereignty, as well as its gratuitous concessions." This baseless accusation, tinged with bad faith, follows the criticism leveled by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi against President Aoun. The latter had condemned Friday, in a CNN interview, Tehran's destabilizing role in Lebanon. "Based on Mr. Aoun's statements, one might think it is Iran that occupied a fifth of Lebanon, displaced a quarter of Lebanese citizens, and bombs its country daily," Araghchi responded on X. "If Lebanon had been a bargaining chip for Iran, we would have concluded an agreement long ago. Save Lebanon from your true enemy, Mr. President," added the minister who, equally acting in bad faith, merely focuses on the consequences of actions for which his country is directly responsible. His misplaced remarks directed at the head of state sparked indignant reactions in Lebanon, where MP Ghayath Yazbek (Lebanese Forces) ironically asked the Iranian minister to leave Lebanon alone. "Thank you, Mr. Araghchi. We relieve you of your concern for Lebanon. Go sign an agreement with Washington and let us live in peace," he wrote on X, before comparing Iran to an "arsonist firefighter." "Your state made it the symbol of its foreign policy, based on bad neighborliness, sabotage, and the export of chaos and provision of its services," he added. Targeting of Bahrain and Kuwait This accusation comes just hours after new Iranian strikes, during the night of Friday to Saturday, against Bahrain and Kuwait, which have stated they reserve the right to defend their respective countries. The Iranian attack followed strikes by the American military, which on Friday shot down six of the seven ballistic missiles and Iranian drones launched toward the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf's Arab allies. The seventh did not reach its target, according to Centcom, which also said it struck back at radar sites, including an island in the strait, 'to defend against further attacks.' It is against this backdrop of renewed tensions that Pakistan's Interior Minister, Mohsin Naqvi, traveled to Tehran on Saturday, carrying, according to pan-Arab media, new American proposals relating notably to the unfreezing of Iranian assets, on which the Islamic Republic is insisting. Opening of Qlayaat Airport On another front, Lebanon launched on Saturday the development and operation project of Qlayaat Airport in Akkar, at an official ceremony held in the presence of the head of government, Nawaf Salam, and numerous officials. The airport symbolically received its first aircraft. The significance of this project is not merely socio-economic. It is also political insofar as the inauguration of René Moawad Airport marks another step toward freeing Lebanon from Hezbollah's grip. The latter, along with its allies in Lebanon, opposed it for various reasons. Hezbollah had managed to maintain an active presence at Beirut's only international airport, which was of paramount strategic importance to it, particularly given its geographic location. Beirut International Airport is located in its stronghold, the southern suburbs of Beirut. It suffices to recall that this organization carried out its coup in Beirut in May 2008, when the government of Fouad Siniora attempted to reduce its influence within the state by dismissing the head of airport security, Wafic Choucair, and dismantling his communications network.

The declaration, described as 'historic,' resulting from Washington negotiations on Thursday, was followed on Friday by unprecedented and decisive statements from Lebanon's top leadership. Declarations that appear to accelerate momentum toward the full restoration of Lebanon's sovereignty in the face of Iran and its armed wing, Hezbollah. On Friday, President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam issued stern warnings to Tehran, urging it to cease all interference in Lebanese affairs. 'This is not your country, it is ours (...) You have no right to intervene in our country,' President Aoun told Iran during an interview with CNN. The head of state also called on Hezbollah to prioritize dialogue. 'Hezbollah must understand that there is no solution other than to sit at the negotiating table. There is no other way to save what remains of the country except through negotiation and diplomacy,' he said. 'This is about the Lebanese people, not Naïm Qassem's people,' affirming that Naïm Qassem does not represent the Lebanese people, referring to Hezbollah's secretary general, who had rejected Thursday's Washington agreement. 'The majority of the Lebanese people are sick of war.' Addressing Israeli military operations, Joseph Aoun stated that Israel 'can destroy the entire country, but will never achieve its objective,' before adding: 'They tried in Gaza. Hamas still exists, doesn't it?' The Lebanese president also stated that 'a great opportunity' exists today to end the state of hostility between Lebanon and Israel, while emphasizing that the Hezbollah issue could only be resolved within a strictly Lebanese framework. Addressing Israeli authorities, he declared: 'You must show real willingness to end this war. We are ready, we have the will and commitment. And you?' For his part, Nawaf Salam urged Iran to stop using Lebanon as a 'bargaining chip' in its discussions with the United States aimed at ending the war in the Middle East. Tehran indeed demands that any agreement with Washington also include an end to hostilities on the Lebanese front and the withdrawal of Israeli forces. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who plays an intermediary role with Hezbollah, for his part, mentioned for the first time the possibility of the Shiite movement withdrawing from southern Lebanon, provided that Israel withdraws from Lebanese territory and a 'comprehensive and unconditional' ceasefire is reached. Echoing these statements, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said during a security cabinet meeting that he favored a diplomatic approach regarding Lebanon, while several ministers argued for an expansion of military operations, according to Israeli media. Netanyahu, however, indicated that the ceasefire agreement was not yet definitively finalized. Israel is conditioning its approval on maintaining a buffer zone in southern Lebanon and preserving its freedom of military action. These developments come as the new truce announced by Washington between Israel and Hezbollah already appears compromised. Recall in this regard that the joint U.S.-Lebanese-Israeli declaration concluding the fourth round of negotiations in Washington emphasizes that 'the future of relations between Israel and Lebanon must be decided by the two sovereign governments.' The three signatories also affirm their rejection of 'any attempt by a state or non-state actor to hold Lebanon hostage,' in a barely veiled allusion to Iran and Hezbollah. On the ground, the Israeli army continued its strikes in southern Lebanon after ordering the evacuation of about a dozen towns, maintaining military pressure on Hezbollah, which had rejected the agreement the day before. The Israeli army also carried out a strike at the entrance to Tyre. According to a civil defense source cited by AFP, bombardments on the city during the night of Thursday to Friday killed seven people and slightly damaged Jabal Amel Hospital. For its part, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for several attacks against Israeli forces deployed in part of southern Lebanon, without announcing any operations against northern Israel. Faced with the scale of destruction caused by the conflict, the UN more than doubled its appeal for humanitarian aid and is now seeking nearly $640 million for the next six months.

The fourth round of Lebanese-Israeli negotiations held Tuesday and Wednesday in Washington ended with a 'first': the publication, in the night from Wednesday to Thursday (Levant time) of a joint American-Lebanese-Israeli statement whose content itself constitutes another 'first'. Alongside the establishment of a ceasefire conditioned on the Hezbollah halting its fire against Israel and the creation of 'pilot zones' in the South under the sole control of the Lebanese army, the document emphasizes—and this is where the precedent lies—that 'the future of relations between Israel and Lebanon must be decided by the two sovereign governments'. The three signatory countries further emphasize that they reject 'any attempt by a state or non-state actor to hold Lebanon hostage.' The allusion to the Iranian regime and Hezbollah will not escape anyone's notice. And in a move whose historical significance appears undeniable, the signatory countries further add that 'Israel and Lebanon reaffirm that they have no hostile intentions toward one another and they commit to pursuing direct negotiations to build confidence'. Clearly, the statement notes that Iran is kept out of the current process initiated by Lebanon and Israel, under American auspices. Furthermore, this is the first time that Lebanon and Israel have affirmed in a joint statement that they have 'no hostile intentions toward one another.' The immediate consequence of the publication of this document: AFP reported late in the day that Hezbollah informed Lebanese authorities that it rejects the ceasefire with Israel. A position that clearly echoes a hostile reaction from the Iranian regime, which spares no effort to control the Lebanese landscape. Planned measures At the level of resolutions taken late Wednesday evening, the tripartite statement mentions the implementation of a ceasefire, conditional on Hezbollah stopping its attacks. The novelty of this text is the creation of pilot zones that will be under the sole control of the Lebanese army in the south. The statement emphasizes the sovereignty and territorial integrity of both countries and speaks of the dismantling of non-state armed groups, another jab at Hezbollah. The words 'comprehensive peace and sovereignty agreement' are explicitly mentioned. The two parties agreed on a new round of negotiations on June 22, with a view to reaching a 'comprehensive agreement'. This fourth round of negotiations was unprecedented in substance and form, due to practical measures aimed at demilitarizing Hezbollah on the one hand, and the reading of a joint statement on the other. The three Lebanese, Israeli, and American parties jointly condemned Iranian attacks against Gulf countries. In other words, both Hezbollah and Iran find themselves marginalized. During these negotiations, Israel insisted on the security of its territory and the necessity of disarming Hezbollah once and for all, while Lebanon called for respect of internationally recognized borders, which means a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from occupied Lebanese territory. The proximity of the next round testifies to the willingness for rapid progress between the two parties. The ceasefire, however, is not an absolute certainty given that several ceasefires had been decreed before this without results. Fighting on the ground in the south continues, but the capital and its suburbs remain spared for now. Following the meeting, Lebanon's ambassador Nada Hamadé Mouawad assured that 'this is a historic moment,' and that the achievements of these negotiations are due to 'the sole will of the sovereign Lebanese state'. Israeli Ambassador Yechiel Leiter, in a statement on the sidelines of the meeting, expressed conviction that "Hezbollah will have to understand that all this madness is over" and that the two states are gradually reaching an agreement. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated that "Hezbollah is the enemy of both parties." According to MTV reports from Baabda, negotiations were extremely difficult, and the head of the Lebanese delegation, Simon Karam, had to suspend talks in order to include a clause on a total ceasefire in Lebanon. Following an intervention by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, discussions resumed and yielded the results we now know. In an initial reaction to the negotiations, addressing journalists directly, Republic President Joseph Aoun stated that the ceasefire "could be implemented within 24 hours following its final approval." A first sign came with a withdrawal of Israeli forces from the village of Debbin, Marjeyoun, and their replacement by the Lebanese army. Aoun said he was awaiting responses from all parties and their commitment to making this truce succeed. He also informed his interlocutors that Lebanon proposed a first pilot zone in two strategic villages in the Nabatiyeh region, Zawtar el-Sharqiya and Zawtar el-Gharbiya. Hezbollah's Response Clearly, these advances are not welcome to everyone in Israel and Lebanon alike. In Tel Aviv, Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir called the ceasefire with Lebanon a "grave mistake." Defense Minister Israel Katz, for his part, assured that his country "will maintain freedom of movement in Lebanon," particularly in case of a Hezbollah attack. On the Iranian axis side, Esmaïl Qaani, commander of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards, reiterated his country's support for "resistance in Lebanon," arguing that a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces to the point before this latest conflict is the least that should happen. Perhaps Mr. Qaani forgets that the Israeli army was already occupying five points on Lebanese territory before March 2... even as the Lebanese state is negotiating for a total withdrawal from the territory. As expected, the reaction of Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem, in a speech Thursday, to this Lebanese-Israeli-American joint statement was particularly fierce. He described the ceasefire achieved by the Lebanese state as "fictitious," and direct negotiations as "pointless and humiliating." "If the objective of any agreement is to disarm Hezbollah, that means depriving Lebanon of all its cards of strength," he declared, adding that "this statement is a surrender and a call for internal discord." Noting that this text calls on Hezbollah to cease hostilities as a priority, Qassem declared that his movement "is only concerned with a total ceasefire and a complete Israeli withdrawal from occupied Lebanese territories." The vehemence of this reaction is expected, given that the joint statement completely marginalizes the role of Hezbollah and Iran, even as the course of negotiations appears inevitable. How will Hezbollah react on the ground? In any case, as U.S. President Donald Trump himself said Thursday, efforts continue to separate the Iranian and Lebanese aspects. On the ground, fighting has not stopped. While it had given the impression the day before of avoiding strikes on northern Israel, Hezbollah apparently sent drones to the region again, even though it did not claim responsibility for attacks on Israel. Sirens sounded in northern Israel shortly after Qassem's speech, according to the Israeli military. It also continued its strikes in various regions of the south and issued a new call for the evacuation of all residents south of Zahrani (Sidon), well north of the Litani, the former demarcation line. Another serious development in the south: the death of a Blue Helmet in Marjeyoun, a UNIFIL soldier of Serbian nationality, following a missile strike on the organization's headquarters. UNIFIL condemned it as a 'deliberate attack' on its soldiers and called for an investigation to determine responsibilities. Several Blue Helmets have been killed and wounded during this conflict, some by Israeli fire and others by Hezbollah, according to the organization's own statements. Also note the visit to Lebanon by French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian, who met with several Lebanese figures on Thursday. French President Emmanuel Macron expressed hope that ongoing negotiations (in which France does not play a role) will lead to an effective ceasefire, and that his country 'remains available' according to AFP. The U.S. Congress On the U.S.-Iran front, the most dramatic development on June 4th is the resolution passed by the U.S. House of Representatives in favor of an immediate halt to the war in Iran, launched by U.S. President Donald Trump since February 28th. A decision made possible by 4 Republican representatives joining the Democratic bloc, but which is merely symbolic in scope. Congress essentially reproaches Trump for engaging in a war without a clear vision and without considering American interests. Under pressure (both internal and external, due to renewed attacks on Gulf countries, particularly Kuwait on Wednesday), Trump believed negotiations could be concluded this weekend. He reiterated that no agreement could be reached without Iran's complete delivery of enriched uranium to the United States. For his part, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a statement accusing the United States and Israel of attempting to sow discord, asserting that 'the enemy suffered a crushing defeat' in this conflict with his country. This inflammatory statement comes even as the U.S. President recently expressed his desire to meet with him, and continues to declare that Iran wants a deal and that negotiations have made significant progress. This type of Iranian denial has become routine whenever Donald Trump speaks. Finally, note a renewed surge in tensions in the Gaza Strip, where Israeli forces conducted intense bombing raids Wednesday night into Thursday on apartments, killing an entire family among others.

The second session of the fourth round of direct Lebanon-Israel talks resumed Wednesday at the US State Department in Washington. The discussions remain arduous and are being impacted by violence on the ground in southern Lebanon. They were due to resume after a lunch break. Beirut is still trying to secure from Tel Aviv a commitment to a lasting truce, while on the ground the ceasefire framework imposed by President Donald Trump on Monday, after Israeli threats to strike Beirut’s southern suburbs, continues to be tested. On Wednesday, Hezbollah showed little regard for threats issued by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz, who warned that the army would strike Beirut’s southern suburbs if the Iranian-backed group continued attacks on northern Israeli localities. Donald Trump firmly opposed such strikes. In the early afternoon, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for firing two rockets at an Israeli military base in northern Israel. Both were intercepted by the Israeli army, with sirens sounding in Kiryat Shmona and Menara. Is Hezbollah trying to provoke Israeli authorities, knowing they will not overstep the limits set by the US president? Possibly. But it would be mistaken to believe it can exploit the rifts that emerged on Monday between Tel Aviv and Washington after the spat between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu over the Israeli military operation, still confined to southern Lebanon. Comments made Wednesday by the US president, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirm that Washington and Israel remain aligned on strategic objectives in Lebanon and Iran but differ on tactics. The two sides agree on the need to end Hezbollah’s military presence in Lebanon, viewing it as Iran’s armed proxy in the country. For Washington, diplomacy remains the preferred path, whether in Lebanon or on the Iranian dossier. Donald Trump reiterated that position on Wednesday in an interview on the New York Post podcast, while also saying he was “frustrated” by what he described as Israel’s “endless war” in Lebanon. At the same time, Netanyahu said he shared the US president’s goal of disarming Hezbollah in an interview with CNBC. “If we want to save Lebanon, if we want to achieve peace between Lebanon and Israel, as I want, we must disarm Hezbollah and demilitarize the country. This is an objective the president and I share, and it is what we must do,” he said. The US secretary of state echoed that assessment, stressing the “danger” Hezbollah poses to the Lebanese state, particularly after threats by figures within the group to overthrow Nawaf Salam’s government. What remains most significant is Washington’s determination to separate the ongoing Lebanese-Israeli negotiations from talks with Iran, a linkage that Tehran continues to reject. The US presidency is therefore seeking to manage, simultaneously but separately, bilateral Lebanon-Israel negotiations and the Iran dossier. On the latter, Donald Trump said talks were moving quickly. Iran, however, swiftly denied this, rejecting any claim that it had sent Washington a response to US proposals for a resumption of negotiations. The denial, issued by the Tasnim news agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, came shortly after Trump’s interview with the New York Post . Tasnim did not, however, comment on the US president’s remarks suggesting the possibility of a meeting with Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. As Tehran continues to stall, Trump reiterated once again that he will not wait indefinitely, and that he will eventually have to choose between reaching a deal with Iran or launching a military strike – an option he described as “not pleasant.” For his part, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the Islamic Republic was “playing with fire,” pointing not only to its delays in indirect talks with Washington but also to strikes carried out overnight Tuesday into Wednesday against Kuwait and Bahrain. According to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, those operations were carried out in response to US attacks targeting an Iranian tanker and an island in the Strait of Hormuz. In Kuwait, the raids claimed by the Guards hit an airport terminal, killing one person and injuring 63 others, some of them critically wounded. The US military responded with “defensive strikes” on Iran’s Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, according to US Central Command (CENTCOM). The Revolutionary Guards then retaliated in turn, targeting an air base hosting helicopters in Kuwait, as well as the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet naval command in Bahrain.

The fourth round of direct Lebanese-Israeli negotiations convened Tuesday evening at the U.S. State Department in Washington, under American auspices, as tensions remained high in southern Lebanon, where the Israeli army continues its military operations and presses further north of the Litani River. The Lebanese-Israeli talks, in which former Lebanese ambassador Simon Karam is participating on the Lebanese side, are set to resume Wednesday in the American capital. On the military front, Israeli aircraft carried out a series of airstrikes throughout Tuesday and into the evening, targeting positions as well as weapons and ammunition depots in several villages across the districts of Tyre, Bint Jbeil and Nabatiyeh. The cities of Tyre and Nabatiyeh were not spared. By the end of the day, the Israeli army reported the presence of “dozens of Hezbollah militiamen” who had reportedly retreated into Tyre’s Christian quarter. Yet it was the situation in Beirut’s southern suburbs that dominated the attention of political and diplomatic circles on Tuesday. The eleventh hour agreement brokered Monday evening by President Donald Trump, following urgent contacts with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, stipulated that Israel would suspend what appeared to be an imminent air assault on the southern suburbs, in exchange for Hezbollah halting its rocket fire against Israel. The deal secured by the American president thus rests on a simple equation: the southern suburbs in exchange for northern Israel. Netanyahu and his Defense Minister, Israel Katz, made it clear on Tuesday that should the pro-Iranian party resume firing on Israeli territory, Israel would strike Hezbollah positions in Beirut’s southern suburbs. That approach was rejected Tuesday by a senior Hezbollah official, who stated that the group would not accept any partial ceasefire and remained committed to securing a comprehensive and permanent cessation of hostilities. That position mirrors that of the Lebanese government, which intends to press the same case during the Washington talks. It is becoming increasingly clear that Beirut’s southern suburbs are caught in a precarious equilibrium, given the ongoing Israeli military operations in the south, a dynamic that could trigger retaliatory strikes by Hezbollah against Israel. In that context, Tel Aviv announced late Tuesday that one of its commando units had deployed north of the Litani River, near the town of Zawtar. The other development that captured the attention of media outlets in both the United States and Israel on Tuesday was the tone surrounding Monday’s phone call between President Trump and Netanyahu. An Israeli television channel confirmed late in the day that the exchange between the two leaders had been particularly tense. An American website reported Tuesday morning that the White House chief had addressed the Israeli prime minister in terms that were far from cordial. The same Israeli channel further reported that sources close to Netanyahu said on Tuesday morning that Monday’s exchange had been the most strained contact between the U.S. president and the Israeli prime minister since the start of Donald Trump’s second term nearly a year and a half ago. Netanyahu was scheduled to convene his ministerial team on Tuesday evening to review developments across the region. Finally, the UN Security Council held an emergency session overnight Monday, at France’s request, to address the deteriorating military situation in Lebanon.

The suspense of the day on Monday, June 1st, centered this time on the fate of the southern suburbs, which had experienced the past twenty-four hours under the threat of imminent Israeli bombardments. Late in the evening, President Donald Trump announced the conclusion of an agreement providing for a halt to Hezbollah fire against Israel in exchange for a suspension of Israeli bombing of the southern suburbs, which was about to be carried out. The White House chief made this announcement on his social network Truth Social, indicating that he had held a "very productive" conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In an allusion to the raid that appeared imminent against the southern suburbs, he indicated that "no troops will go to Beirut, and the forces that were on their way have turned back." President Trump further indicated that "through high-ranking representatives, I had a telephone conversation with Hezbollah, and they have agreed to cease fire, in the sense that Israel will not attack them and they will not attack Israel." Late in the evening, an authorized American source clarified that contacts with Lebanon regarding ceasefires took place with President Joseph Aoun. It was Monday morning that tensions rose dramatically when the Israeli Prime Minister and his Defense Minister Israel Katz announced in a joint statement that they had ordered the military to bomb the southern suburbs, specifically the drone and ammunition depots, drone manufacturing centers, and Hezbollah command posts. Shortly after this statement was released, a massive exodus of residents from the southern suburbs was recorded, causing traffic congestion at the exit from the region. To prevent tensions from escalating into security incidents, the military set up fixed checkpoints to seal the entrances to Ain el-Remmaneh. While Israeli aviation conducted raids throughout the day against Hezbollah positions in several villages in the south—the deadliest raid completely devastated an entire neighborhood in Tyre—the government undertook urgent contacts to prevent the Jewish state from executing its threats against the southern suburbs. The head of the legislature and leader of the Amal movement, Nabih Berry, notably declared that Hezbollah had agreed to cease its fire against Israel. Later in the day, the Iranian regime renewed its maneuver aimed at attempting to control the Lebanese chessboard. It thus stressed that any attack on the southern suburbs would directly impact northern Israel, inviting residents of that region to evacuate in case of strikes against the Beirut suburbs. In the afternoon, Tehran announced it was suspending (indirect) negotiations and message exchanges with the United States due to Israeli threats. To which President Trump responded in the evening: "I don't care if negotiations with Iran are interrupted. I can wait a long time; it's them who are losing." This aggressive stance adopted by Iran to prevent bombardments against the southern suburbs at all costs led some analysts to question the reasons for such an attitude and to wonder what is so important hidden in these suburbs that would explain the Iranian regime's position on this matter. In any case, information available late in the evening made it possible to clarify the situation as follows: The ceasefire announced by President Trump does not necessarily concern South Lebanon, where raids continued intensively late into the night against several villages. The agreement reached Monday implicitly stipulates an equation whereby the bombing of the southern suburbs will be carried out if Hezbollah resumes its attacks against Israel (Mr. Netanyahu indicated in the evening that he had emphasized this point during his telephone conversation with President Trump, while clarifying at the same time that the army will continue its operations in the South). Late Monday night, the pan-Arab channel al-Hadath reported that Hezbollah launched rockets against northern Israel, particularly in the direction of Metula where alarm sirens were activated. According to some sources, the head of the White House intervened to suspend the bombardment of the southern suburbs so as not to compromise the new round of direct talks between Lebanon and Israel, scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday at the State Department in Washington. It should be noted at the regional level that the American military command indicated Monday morning that US aviation bombed Iranian positions on Saturday and Sunday, notably air defenses, radars, and drone and missile launch centers. At the same time, the US military intercepted and destroyed two ballistic missiles over the weekend that had been launched by the Revolutionary Guards toward a US military base in Kuwait. Late Monday night, the Revolutionary Guards stated that they had launched a missile against "a vessel belonging to the American Zionist enemy".

Negotiations and dialogue in Washington, conflict and airstrikes in Lebanon. Saturday, May 30 was marked by an intervention from Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, who condemned Israeli airstrikes, while the Pentagon assured that discussions between Israeli and Lebanese military officials in Washington on Friday, May 29 had been "constructive." In a televised address, Nawaf Salam argued that Israel's "scorched earth policy" and "collective punishment" would bring it neither security nor stability. Following new Israeli-Lebanese discussions at the Pentagon, as the Israeli military continues to advance deep into Lebanese territory, Salam nonetheless defended the continuation of negotiations with Israel. These constitute "the least costly path" for Beirut, emphasized the head of government. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, for his part, assured U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio that a ceasefire was "an essential prerequisite" for any progress in negotiations. Pentagon Deputy Chief Elbridge Colby described Friday's meeting as "constructive," saying it would serve as "a foundation for the political track" to be addressed by the two countries on June 2 and 3 at the State Department. According to an Israeli source cited by Reuters, Israel and Lebanon did not address the issue of southern Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold, where Israel claims to have largely contained its attacks under U.S. pressure. Israel continues its expansion northward On the military operations front, the Israeli military called on Saturday morning for residents of more than a dozen villages in South Lebanon to evacuate before airstrikes targeting several localities in the region. For its part, the Lebanese army announced that an Israeli drone strike, described as "targeted," had seriously wounded two of its soldiers in a vehicle near the city of Nabatieh. Artillery fire also targeted the surroundings of the medieval fortress of Beaufort, following statements by Foreign Affairs Minister Joe Raggi and Culture Minister Ghassan Salamé, who had expressed concern about the "serious threat" that Israeli attacks pose to historical heritage. It should be noted in this regard that the Israeli military released a video, widely circulated by several Lebanese media outlets, showing that the strikes that hit the Greek Orthodox Church of Saint George in Marjayoun 48 hours earlier came from positions held by Hezbollah. Appeals from influential circles in Nabatieh and Tyre Faced with a surge in raids and bombings, President Joseph Aoun and the Prime Minister denounced in a joint statement "Israel's condemnable practices," "the expansion of its attacks," as well as "the continuation of bombings and the bulldozing of homes and historical sites." It should be noted against the backdrop of this context that about a hundred intellectuals and influential figures from Nabatieh and an equal number from the city of Tyre have respectively issued an "appeal" in which they demand the demilitarization of both localities, the end of all militia presence, and the restoration of the sole authority of the state and army in the cities in question. Both "appeals" stand against the fact that the Iranian Islamic Revolution Guards have drawn South Lebanon into a "futile war" and support the steps undertaken by the Lebanese government to restore peace in South Lebanon. It should be noted that Hezbollah issued a statement strongly condemning the content of both the Nabatieh and Tyre "appeals." In Iran, Washington's "red lines" On the regional front, the United States said Saturday that it has the necessary means to resume military action against Iran, while reaffirming that a peace agreement would only be possible if their "red lines" were respected. In this context, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the United States was "fully capable" of resuming hostilities against Iran "if necessary." "Our stockpiles are well-suited for this purpose," he said at a defense forum in Singapore. An American diplomatic source indicated Saturday that if negotiations stall over three key issues — enriched uranium stockpiles, the Strait of Hormuz, and frozen Iranian assets abroad — the main obstacle stems from the regime's hardline faction. This is notably represented by General Esmail Qa'ani, commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, as well as by deputy Ebrahim Azizi, known for his radical positions. According to this source, these two influential figures in the regime oppose the Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who has recently shown signs of openness toward Washington. Meanwhile, in Iraq, a statement made Saturday by a security official of Kataeb Hezbollah — an organization often referred to as the "Iraqi Hezbollah" — has reignited the controversy over the future of weapons outside state control, as political sources in Baghdad indicate that five armed factions may be considering beginning to lay down their weapons. This Shiite faction close to Iran stressed that it refuses to hand over its weapons to the central government and is determined to "continue the resistance," stating that it was "ready to receive certain specialized weapons for which state institutions lack the necessary expertise, such as drones, cruise missiles, and anti-tank weapons," adding that it was also "ready to finance them." It should be noted, in conclusion, that the U.S. State Department has removed Tom Barrack from his position as special envoy for Syria, without providing further details.

The scenario from last weekend repeated itself on this Friday, May 29th. The media and public opinion experienced another roller coaster ride regarding American-Iranian negotiations mediated by Pakistan, aimed at ending the war situation that began on February 28th, as a prelude to bilateral talks on the major issues fueling the conflict between the United States and the Islamic Republic. As was the case last weekend, a wave of optimism swept through Friday afternoon, with reports of an imminent official announcement of a 'framework agreement' between Washington and Tehran. President Donald Trump was expected to publicly announce that he was lifting the naval blockade imposed on Iranian ports and that he was preparing to hold a meeting at the White House with his team of senior officials and advisors to 'make a final decision' regarding the emerging framework agreement. Following President Trump's announcement, media outlets received information about the terms of the memorandum of understanding in question. According to these leaks, the document provides for the immediate restoration of free maritime circulation through the Strait of Hormuz, without tolls or conditions (in exchange for lifting the naval blockade) and the destruction by the United States of enriched uranium stockpiles, 'in collaboration with the Islamic Republic and the International Atomic Energy Agency.' However, no measures were planned to end the freeze on part of Iranian assets. Nearly an hour after these details were disclosed, Iranian authorities, at least those close to the Revolutionary Guards, claimed that no agreement had yet been reached, that the information reported by President Trump was inaccurate, and, to top it off, that 'Iran is the one imposing its conditions' on the US Administration, not the other way around. The manifestly negative climate filtered to the media by the Iranian regime's faction close to the Pasdaran apparently had an impact on the course of the meeting chaired by President Trump at the White House. After two hours of discussions among senior American officials, President Trump made no announcement, contrary to what had been indicated in the afternoon. The New York Times reported that evening, citing a senior US official, that no decision was made regarding the framework agreement project, noting that 'some questions still need to be discussed.' Late in the evening, the US Treasury was to clarify that 'the blockade imposed on Iranian ports will be lifted gradually.' Israeli advances and Pentagon talks This diplomatic impasse did not overshadow developments on the military operations front, more specifically in Lebanon. The Israeli military continued its 'steamroller' operation Friday against Hezbollah positions, infrastructure, and militiamen. New intensive air raids were conducted against several localities in the South and West Bekaa. Meanwhile, according to various sources, the Israeli military continues to gain ground and is reported to have reached the outskirts of Nabatieh. Late in the evening, al-Hadath reported that Israeli forces were 500 meters from Beaufort Castle. Other sources indicated late in the evening that the IDF had virtually reached the medieval crusader castle. Earlier in the day, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu conducted an inspection tour at the border with Lebanon. In a statement to press correspondents, he indicated that the Israeli military had crossed the Litani River and had taken positions on the region's strategic hills. "We are acting forcefully in Beirut, the South and the Bekaa, without restrictions," Mr. Netanyahu stated, citing a "collapse of Hezbollah"... Various news sources reported on Friday evening a "collapse of Hezbollah on all fronts." However, these reports could not be confirmed from independent sources. It was in this particularly tense and explosive atmosphere that the first direct Lebanese-Israeli negotiation meeting took place Friday afternoon (Levant time) at the Pentagon, as part of a "security process" running parallel to the political process of bilateral negotiations. On the sidelines of the Pentagon meeting, Secretary of State Marco Rubio contacted President Joseph Aoun by telephone to review the progress of Lebanese-Israeli dialogue. According to a statement from the presidential office, the head of state emphasized on this occasion the importance of a ceasefire as a prerequisite for any progress in negotiations with Israel. The head of American diplomacy in turn reaffirmed his country's support for "Lebanon's sovereignty, stability and independence, as well as its right to decide its own future." According to a State Department statement, Mr. Rubio paid tribute to "the courage of President Joseph Aoun, who took the initiative to engage in negotiations with Israel." The Secretary of State further stressed that "Hezbollah bears full responsibility for the ongoing fighting in Lebanon." He stated that "Hezbollah continues its attempts to obstruct negotiations with Israel."

Lebanese citizens, and the peoples of the Levant region more broadly, apparently must resign themselves to being regularly subjected to a rollercoaster of developments regarding the Iranian conflict. On Thursday afternoon, reports from the American website Axios indicated that a framework agreement had been concluded between US and Iranian negotiators. The same sources claimed that a copy of this memorandum of understanding had been transmitted to the White House and that President Donald Trump had requested "a few days of reflection" before endorsing the text. A few hours later, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards appeared eager to "facilitate" the task for the American president by emphasizing, through the Tasnim agency which reflects their viewpoint, that no agreement has yet been reached between Americans and Iranians. Based on the public positions adopted on both sides, significant differences remain between the two parties, particularly concerning issues of free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the US naval blockade imposed on Iran, the return to Iranian authorities of a portion of Iranian foreign currency assets frozen for several years, and the fate of enriched uranium. The US Treasury Secretary stated on Thursday that no agreement is possible with Iran before the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic without conditions and without the handover of enriched uranium to the United States. However, this latter point is rejected by the Revolutionary Guards, so skepticism was clearly evident Thursday evening regarding a quick breakthrough in American-Iranian negotiations. It should be noted that President Trump issued a stern warning to the Sultanate of Oman on Thursday, cautioning it against any agreement it might be tempted to conclude with the Iranian regime to jointly manage the Strait of Hormuz and collectively impose a passage fee on merchant vessels. Tehran insists on controlling the strait and imposing a sort of toll on this maritime route to ensure substantial revenue. It is worth noting that an Iranian source indicated to the Wall Street Journal that the Islamic Republic's foreign currency reserves are sufficient for barely three months. Escalation in Military Operations While negotiations appeared to be stalling, a clear escalation in military operations was recorded on Thursday at both the regional and local levels. Late Thursday evening, Iran's official Fars agency reported "Iranian missile fire from southern Iran." The Tasnim agency, for its part, reported that automatic weapon fire was heard in Bandar Abbas due to clashes taking place in the Gulf waters. Tehran's media clarified that the Revolutionary Guards opened fire in the Strait of Hormuz at American warships and a clash ensued between US vessels and the Pasdaran. At dawn Thursday, the Revolutionary Guards had launched drones against a US oil tanker and three ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz. The US military indicated it had intercepted four drones before launching an air strike against a drone launch site in the Bandar Abbas port area. In response, the Pasdaran launched missiles and drones against Kuwait. Air raid sirens were activated in the capital and the Kuwaiti military specified in a statement that "Kuwaiti air defenses repelled attacks carried out by enemy missiles and drones." The Pasdaran, for their part, claimed to have targeted 'an American base.' This attack by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps on Kuwait is part of the strategy pursued by the Pasdaran since the beginning of this war on February 28, aimed at focusing their aggression on Gulf countries (rather than Israel) in order to pressure them to call for the dismantling of American bases in the Gulf and to urge the United States to end its economic and military pressure on the Islamic Republic. It should also be noted that the Israeli military eliminated two senior Hamas military officials in Gaza on Thursday. Raggi's efforts to preserve the remains of Tyre On the Lebanese front, reports indicated late in the evening of significant rapid advances by Israeli forces that are reportedly one and a half kilometers from the city of Nabatieh and have taken control of the Beaufort Castle, an important strategic position in the region. Thursday was marked mainly by an Israeli missile strike on an apartment in Choueifat, where Ali Husseini, the head of the Hezbollah missile system, was killed. At dawn on Thursday, an Israeli airstrike was carried out against the city of Tyre. The Israeli military said it had targeted Hezbollah command centers in the city. According to some sources, a strike also targeted an area near the famous remains of the city of Tyre. On this matter, Foreign Minister Joe Raggi has undertaken urgent diplomatic steps to prevent any damage to the archaeological and cultural heritage that enriches the Tyre region. Returning to military operations, a missile strike targeted an apartment in a multi-story building in Sidon at dawn on Thursday. Three people were killed in this attack. Furthermore, a vehicle was hit by a drone strike on the coastal road near Adloun, not far from Sidon. This attack reportedly killed six people. Airstrikes were also reported in the early morning against the city of Nabatieh as well as against Hezbollah militia positions in the Jezzine district and in Zahrani. A motorcycle traveling on the outskirts of Tyre was also targeted by a drone strike at dawn.

Wednesday, May 27 ended with two developments that offer little cause for optimism: during an expanded meeting of his ministerial team, President Donald Trump emphasized that he "is not satisfied with what Iran is proposing" for the memorandum of understanding currently being negotiated between the two countries; at the same time, the Israeli military was recording a "first" by asking residents Wednesday evening to evacuate "all of South Lebanon" and retreat "north of the Zahrani River", a few kilometers south of Sidon! The overall political climate began to turn red in the middle of the day following reports from Iran's official television regarding the content of the draft memorandum being discussed between American and Iranian negotiators, through Pakistani mediators. Iranian television, widely picked up by the media, thus reported having obtained "a draft of an initial unofficial framework agreement for a protocol agreement with the United States". According to the Iranian media outlet, the terms of this framework agreement would stipulate that "Iran would restore commercial maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz within one month" and remove mines from the area, while the United States "would commit" to ending its military presence in the region and lifting its blockade of Iranian ports. Nothing about nuclear issues… The White House was quick to respond by stating that this information is entirely baseless and "fabricated out of thin air", as Reuters reported. Trump's statements For his part, President Trump held a meeting of his ministerial team at the White House on Wednesday (rather than at Camp David as originally planned) to discuss negotiations with Iran. "We are not satisfied with the Iranian proposals regarding the memorandum of understanding", the American president emphasized during this meeting, adding that American forces may "have to return to Iran to finish the job". Earlier in the day, the White House chief told BBC News that "Iran will not get sanctions relief in exchange for giving up enriched uranium". President Trump also reiterated that Iran "wants a deal and has no other choice", asserting that his administration "has still not reached an agreement with Iran and is not satisfied with it". He stressed in this context that Iran "is very weak" currently. For his part, Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted that "options remain open on the Iranian issue, but what is certain is that this country will not obtain a nuclear weapon". As if responding to the American administration, a senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards official estimated that the probability of another war is "low", pointing to the "weakness of the enemy". He assured that Iranian armed forces remained ready to intervene, "their magazines full". In another surprising statement, Iran's Ministry of Intelligence noted that the United States and Israel were still seeking to overthrow the Islamic Republic "by new means", after having "failed" to do so through strikes. The South Lebanon evacuation order In Lebanon, the Israeli escalation continues relentlessly. One of the day's main stories was the evacuation notice for all of South Lebanon. The Israeli military in fact invited all residents of the South to withdraw north of the Zahrani, specifying that the region south of this river is a "combat zone". The IDF emphasized its determination to launch a major offensive against Hezbollah in this area. Another major flashpoint in the South is the town of Zawtar al-Charkiya in the Nabatiyeh area, where fierce clashes have erupted between Hezbollah militants and the Israeli army, which is advancing along this axis. According to analysts, the Israelis are seeking to capture Beaufort Castle, a highly strategic hilltop, on their route toward the city of Nabatiyeh. Their operations in Tyre also suggest a push in this direction. Hezbollah continues to use its missiles extensively against the Israeli army in Lebanon, as well as its most effective weapon at present—explosive drones—beyond its borders. How much longer will it be able to slow the Israeli advance? The Iranian-backed party appears to be increasingly adhering to its guerrilla tactics, sacrificing territory in favor of a war of attrition. The Qaraoun Dam Issue On another note, it should be mentioned that the three strikes that targeted the Qaraoun Dam in the Bekaa Valley last Tuesday, May 26, have triggered alarming reactions from the National Litani Authority and the Union of Bouhayra Municipalities, which represents 19 villages along the lake's shore. (Pages Facebook Al Buhaira Union of Municipalities , Machghara Municipality ) The Qaraoun Dam was built according to the so-called "gravity dam" model. While it does have a concrete "core" at its center and up to a certain height, the pressure exerted by the artificial lake's waters is primarily contained by a massive embankment that "crowns" this concrete structure. This embankment plays a crucial role in stabilizing the rocks and preventing them from sliding toward the dam's base. From a technical and architectural standpoint, the road bombed last Tuesday is an integral part of the embankment in question. A retaining wall was built along this section to keep the rock masses in place and protect the dam structure against any landslides or structural impacts. Consequently, the road targeted by the Israeli strikes is not merely a route connecting the western and eastern banks of the Litani, but rather a structural and functional element of the dam's protection system. The Israeli strikes were likely aimed at isolating West Bekaa from South Lebanon by cutting off Hezbollah's communication and logistical support routes. Following the bombing of the bridge connecting the village of Machghara (which came under intense Israeli strikes on Tuesday and where tunnels were discovered) to the village of Sohmor, another Hezbollah stronghold located on the opposite bank of the Litani, the only remaining passable road was the one across the dam. Now, with this route neutralized, traffic must either head further north toward Kefraya or take another route southward near Nabatiyeh. In either case, these routes are longer and more exposed. In this context, the National Litani Authority issued a statement warning of the dangers posed by repeated attacks near the dam's installations. The Authority emphasizes that any attack, direct or indirect, against the Qaraoun Dam or its facilities could have catastrophic consequences for the population, infrastructure, and essential equipment located downstream. (Page Facebook Litani River Authority, litani.gov.lb ,) It has also reposted a projection developed by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), which describes potential flooding scenarios in the event of a dam breach and identifies vulnerable areas likely to be inundated following structural damage or an attack on the dam.