Yet another escalation in South Lebanon with a politico-military dimension
The renewed escalation of violence between Hezbollah and the Israeli military deployed in southern Lebanon, along with the simultaneous postponement of the American-Iranian talks that were set to open today, Friday, in Switzerland, confirms fears surrounding the terms of the memorandum of understanding reached between Tehran and Washington — terms widely seen as favoring the Islamic Republic.
These concerns center on the risk of Lebanon being reduced to a mere mailbox in the context of the upcoming negotiations, which everyone knows will be lengthy and grueling, if not riddled with obstacles.
The escalation raises, above all, the question of what strategy Iran is pursuing. This is a legitimate question given that Friday's outbreak of violence was triggered by a deadly Hezbollah attack — Iran's military arm in Lebanon — on an Israeli position overnight between Thursday and Friday. The fighting lasted nearly the entire day and ended thanks to yet another ceasefire between the two adversaries, brokered under pressure from Washington, but against a backdrop carrying a very significant Iranian political signal.
For no sooner had the ceasefire been announced than Iran's Foreign Ministry reported contacts made by mediators to hold a first round of talks "within the coming days." It also implied that the Islamic Republic is in no rush to enter into them.
"Now that the agreement with Washington has been signed electronically, the Switzerland meeting is no longer urgent," stated the Iranian Foreign Ministry communiqué, which also outlined the agenda for the discussions: clauses 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11 of the framework agreement — issues of direct interest to Tehran, as they relate to a ceasefire on all fronts including Lebanon, the lifting of the American naval blockade, the management of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of U.S. sanctions imposed on Tehran, and the unfreezing of Iranian assets.
Washington, for its part, provided no specific indication of the content of the upcoming discussions, fueling fears that the negotiation process will unfold amid ongoing conflict in Lebanon and on terms dictated by the interests of the Islamic Republic, which continues to hold the Lebanese card as a bargaining chip.
At the same time, Iranian officials insisted on the need to protect the Islamic Republic's national interests in the forthcoming talks with Washington.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of Parliament and chief negotiator with the Americans, affirmed that Iran would remain committed to its "red lines" during the upcoming nuclear negotiations. He warned that Tehran was prepared to respond firmly to any attempt at excessive pressure by the United States.
This combination of factors lends Friday's escalation a political dimension that goes well beyond the Lebanese context, raising fears of similar episodes over the next 60 days.
Forty-seven killed in a matter of hours
Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon and in the Baalbek region killed at least 47 people and wounded 97, according to official figures. Hezbollah's overnight drone attack on an Israeli position near Nabatieh killed four Israeli soldiers, including one officer.
The Israeli army responded by striking "150 Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa," military and political authorities of the Jewish state confirmed.
The intensity of the raids triggered a massive exodus from southern Lebanon, compounded by the escalating threats against Lebanon from far-right Israeli ministers, even as Hezbollah fighters continued to target Israeli positions in turn.
Washington quickly stepped in to prevent the exchange of fire from spiraling out of control. A ceasefire was set to take effect shortly after 4 p.m. Hezbollah indicated it would comply, provided Israel did the same.
For its part, Israel reaffirmed its commitment to the truce, on the condition that the Iran-backed group refrain from violating it.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was expected to speak with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who again struck a firm tone on Friday.
The Israeli leader made clear that his military would remain in southern Lebanon "for as long as necessary" and pledged to continue operations to ensure the security of northern Israel.
Rubio was also set to hold a phone call with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun.
Earlier, an Israeli military spokesman said at a press conference that Tel Aviv would continue its operations in the areas it occupies in southern Lebanon "in order to destroy Hezbollah's military infrastructure and neutralize any threat to its territory, until it receives new directives."
"Recent events have demonstrated one thing: Israeli soldiers must stand between Hezbollah and Israeli civilians," he stated.
He explained in particular that the Iran-backed group has established a large underground military headquarters in the area around Beaufort Castle, and that its relentless attacks against Israeli forces are aimed at "preventing them from destroying these facilities."
Accusations that the Iran-backed group rejected. Its leader, Naim Qassem, was expected to reaffirm early in the evening the legitimacy of "resistance operations against the occupying Israeli army" and to accuse Israel of never having honored the commitments made under a first ceasefire agreement reached in November 2024.
In his view, Lebanon is "going through one of the most dangerous periods in its history, because of the Israeli-American conspiracy, which we cannot bow to."
"An attack on the truce"
In the face of this fresh outbreak of violence, President Joseph Aoun condemned a "dangerous and reprehensible escalation," arguing that the Israeli strikes "directly undermined the diplomatic efforts undertaken in recent days, as well as ongoing efforts to consolidate the ceasefire and bring the war to an end."
For Beirut, the timing of this escalation is particularly worrying. It comes just days before the resumption of direct peace talks with Israel, scheduled for June 23 in Washington and rejected by Hezbollah.