Regional Crisis: Diplomatic Efforts Intensify Amid Growing Uncertainty

Diplomatic activity intensified on Tuesday around two issues that have dominated international headlines in recent weeks: the discussions between Washington and Tehran and the direct talks between Lebanon and Israel.

The fifth round of Lebanese-Israeli negotiations opened at the Pentagon, but not before President Joseph Aoun issued a firm reminder of the guiding principle that should govern the three-day talks: respect for Lebanese sovereignty. Mr. Aoun, who has repeatedly criticized Iran’s blatant interference in Lebanon’s internal affairs, treated Tehran and Tel Aviv as equally responsible. “We will accept nothing less than an end to the Israeli occupation and to all forms of foreign domination,” he said, in a barely veiled reference to Iran. He expressed hope that the discussions would lead to “the full restoration of Lebanon’s sovereignty over every inch of its territory,” according to a statement released by his office.

For Beirut, the objective of these talks is to turn the ceasefire into a concrete mechanism facilitating an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, the return of displaced residents and the release of prisoners. According to sources at the presidential palace, quoted by the local news agency al-Markaziya, precise instructions were given to the head of the Lebanese delegation, Ambassador Simon Karam, to firmly uphold these priorities while seeking military and security arrangements that can be implemented on the ground, where the ceasefire remains under strain. On Tuesday, the Israeli army opened fire on groups of individuals it described as “Hezbollah terrorists” in the area of the strategic Ali Taher hill, killing at least two people.

According to Israeli media reports, the discussions are focusing in particular on the creation of “pilot zones” in southern Lebanon. According to Haaretz, Tel Aviv has drawn up several maps outlining an experimental withdrawal from certain areas south of the Litani River and the Yellow Line, where the Lebanese army would deploy under U.S. supervision.

In Lebanon, officials say that the military and security discussions will be followed on Thursday by political talks, with a particular focus on the disarmament of Hezbollah.

The proposed “pilot zones” naturally enjoy U.S. backing, as they would serve as a real test of the Lebanese army’s ability to maintain security in southern Lebanon and prevent Tehran from re-establishing its influence there. The plan nevertheless faces two major obstacles. First, the Islamic Republic, which refuses to loosen its grip on Lebanon, has been included in the mechanism to be established. The reasons behind this presence, which is at best inopportune, have yet to be officially explained. Second, Lebanon does not appear to be involved in the practical preparations for the arrangement, as suggested by details released about Joseph Aoun’s two phone calls with U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Both men called him on Tuesday to express their support for his positions and those of the government in favor of restoring Lebanese sovereignty. According to a statement from the presidency, they informed him that “preparations for the formation and operation of this body are currently under consideration.” It remains to be seen what role Lebanon will play within this framework, as Beirut continues to advocate keeping the Lebanese-Israeli and Iranian-American negotiating tracks separate.

Joe Raggi Calls on Arab Countries

In Amman, where he was taking part in the 165th ministerial meeting of the Arab League, Foreign Minister Joe Raggi called on Arab states to support “the independence of the Lebanese negotiating track” from the U.S.-Iran axis. He stressed that Lebanon’s future should not be decided in its absence.

Washington appears to still back this position, as reflected in JD Vance’s response to Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, who had questioned the U.S. stance on Lebanon and Hezbollah. In his reply, Vance said the United States considered President Aoun and the Lebanese government to be “the only legitimate authority in the country.” The U.S. vice-president also insisted that talks with Tehran “were not intended to grant it a role in Lebanon’s future, but to ensure it exerts pressure on Hezbollah to comply with its commitments.”

In any case, the pro-sovereignty camp – against which Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem again lashed out on Tuesday, accusing it of serving Israeli interests – says it will not lower its guard. More than 400 Lebanese figures have co-signed an appeal to “save Lebanon,” built around three main points: rallying around the state, supporting direct negotiations with Israel, and rejecting the tutelage Iran seeks to impose on Lebanon through its military arm, Hezbollah.

In the same vein, the parliamentary bloc of the Lebanese Forces, MPs from the Kataëb party, and a group of independent lawmakers – including Ashraf Rifi, Michel Moawad and Fouad Makhzoumi – submitted a memorandum to Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, urging the Lebanese state to prepare a legal, financial and diplomatic case to pursue compensation from the Islamic Republic of Iran for damages and losses resulting from the latest war on the Lebanese front, which they attribute to Iran.

French diplomacy also remains heavily engaged in post-war developments in Lebanon. In three separate calls with Joseph Aoun, Nawaf Salam, and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, French President Emmanuel Macron discussed the progress of the U.S.-Iran negotiations, the consolidation of the ceasefire in southern Lebanon, and preparations for the post-UNIFIL period. As the international force’s mandate is due to expire from 2027 onwards, Paris is consulting several European partners to define the terms of a possible replacement international presence.

Tensions Rising

Meanwhile, U.S.-Iran talks have entered a new phase, with both sides agreeing to establish four working groups focused on sanctions relief, the nuclear program, Iran’s economic reconstruction, and monitoring compliance with commitments.

U.S. officials remain optimistic, but signs of friction are emerging, as Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are in Islamabad for talks with Pakistani officials, who are involved in mediation with Washington.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran had agreed to “high-level nuclear inspections” and that “inspectors will be on the ground at the appropriate time,” a claim swiftly denied by Tehran. Iranian officials said the Islamic Republic has no intention of allowing the International Atomic Energy Agency to inspect certain nuclear sites recently bombed by Israel and the United States. Trump responded: “If Iran is looking for trouble, let it try to acquire a nuclear weapon.”

A second point of contention is the release of frozen Iranian assets. Tehran announced an agreement providing for the immediate unfreezing of $12 billion in assets, in two instalments of $6 billion. Trump, however, said the funds would be placed in escrow and used exclusively for the purchase of American food and medical supplies. Iran’s UN ambassador immediately rejected that interpretation, insisting that Tehran would remain solely in control of how its assets are used.

While the United States aims to ensure the funds are used to support the Iranian people amid an unprecedented socio-economic crisis, Iran’s clerical leadership, facing acute financial pressure, is seeking to replenish its resources in order to secure its own survival.

Dispute Over the Strait of Hormuz

A third point of friction concerns the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has reaffirmed its intention to retain administrative control over this strategic waterway, which on Tuesday recorded its highest maritime traffic levels since the start of the war. Iran and Oman have begun talks on the terms and costs of future services related to managing the corridor, while Washington strongly opposes any Iranian control over the strait.

Against this backdrop, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who began a tour of the Gulf on Tuesday, reiterated on his arrival in Abu Dhabi that “no country is permitted to collect tolls or fees on an international waterway.”

The aim of the tour is to “reassure Gulf allies about the memorandum of understanding with Iran.” Rubio is expected to discuss with the leaders of the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain the memorandum of understanding with Iran, the security of the Strait of Hormuz, and the stability guarantees sought by these countries, which Iran targeted during its war with the United States and Israel.