Today's Essential

It was to the rhythm of missile exchanges between Iran and Israel that the Arab and Islamic world celebrated, on Friday, the Eid al-Fitr, which marks the breaking of the Ramadan fast. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun spoke by phone on Friday on this occasion with his Emirati counterpart, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. During this conversation, the head of state "condemned the involvement of certain political parties in a sabotage plot that the Emirates announced they had thwarted today" (Friday), according to a statement from the Lebanese presidency, referring to accusations against Hezbollah.

As fighting continues to rage in southern Lebanon and tensions escalate on the Iranian front, attention has turned to Riyadh on 19 March – where the Saudi capital hosted an extraordinary meeting of foreign ministers from Arab and Islamic countries. Gulf Arab states have been under Iranian missile fire since the launch of the Israeli-American offensive against Iran on 28 February. Under the pretext of targeting American interests in these countries, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have struck civilian infrastructure and urban centers, while continuing to threaten vital oil facilities. The tone of statements following the Riyadh meeting was notably firm – not only regarding missiles and drones attacks on the Gulf, but also in response to Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20 per cent of the world’s oil passes, including much of the Gulf’s exports. Saudi foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud made clear his rejection of any pressure linked to the strait, stressing “the right of (Gulf) states to defend themselves against ongoing attacks.”

As the days pass, the resurgence of military operations escalates crescendo, making the total war that the United States and Israel have been waging against the Iranian mullahs' regime since February 28 increasingly serious. And this escalation is evident on more than one level. After the elimination on March 17 of the head of Iran's National Security Council, Ali Larijani (the true strongman of the regime after the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei) and Gholamreza Soleiman, commander of the Basij (the formidable machine for repressing the population), it was the turn of Intelligence Minister, Ismail Khatib, to be eliminated during an Israeli raid. His death was confirmed on Wednesday, March 18, by official authorities.

The elimination by Israel of Ali Larijani – head of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council and one of the Islamic Republic’s key power brokers – along with the commander of the Basij militia, the formidable Iranian police force, Gholamreza Soleimani, will undoubtedly mark a turning point in the war between Iran and the Israel-US axis. Both men were killed in targeted Israeli strikes on the Iranian capital overnight on Monday, Israeli Defense Minister, Israel Katz, officially announced early Tuesday morning. As of late afternoon, however, Tehran had neither confirmed nor denied the reports. Iranian media merely announced an “imminent televised address” by Ali Larijani – echoing the scenario that preceded Tehran’s official confirmation of the death of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was also killed in Israeli strikes on 28 February 2026 – before broadcasting a handwritten message attributed to Larijani. This was accompanied by a statement from the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, pledging to “continue the war until the defeat of the United States and Israel.”

The war in Iran has entered its third week and, at the current stage, the two opposing camps, the American-Israeli coalition, on the one hand, and the Iranian Islamic Republic, on the other hand, are engaged in a military-political escalation that seems to be going crescendo. President Donald Trump thus raised the tone with his Western allies to overcome their reluctance concerning the establishment of a vast coalition that would take charge of the security of the maritime route of the Strait of Hormuz. The White House chief went so far as to emphasize that if the United States' allies maintain their refusal to send a military naval force to secure the Strait of Hormuz, the consequences for NATO could be unfortunate.

The war between the Iranian Islamic Republic, on the one hand, and the American-Israeli axis, indirectly including Europe and the Gulf countries as well as Turkey, on the other hand, concludes its second week this Saturday, March 14. This first phase of the conflict focused essentially, on the Western side, on the elimination, from the first hours of the offensive on February 28, of some forty members of the Iranian military and political high command, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, followed by a massive and continuous aerial bombardment aimed at destroying the regime's military and administrative infrastructures.

Fears of a military conflict between Iran and the axis formed by Israel and the United States getting bogged down are being confirmed as developments on the ground accelerate and political and military confrontation between Tehran and Washington intensifies. On the fourteenth day of the war raging since February 28, Washington and Tel Aviv insist on their determination to annihilate the military capabilities of Tehran, which is reacting by expanding the scope of its attacks, just hours after the bellicose televised message from the new Iranian Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who was nevertheless injured in the violent strike that killed his father, Ali Khamenei. Diplomacy still seems to have no place in this tug-of-war whose outcome remains uncertain.

Over the past twenty-four hours, a battery of indicators on the ground suggests that the war between Iran and the axis formed by Israel and the United States is on the verge of crossing a new threshold–an escalation from which Lebanon is not escaping. On the thirteen day of the military operation dubbed “Epic Fury” by US President Donald Trump, tensions have significantly surged across the dual Iran-Israel and Lebanon-Israel fronts, marked by a striking synchronicity between Hezbollah and Tehran. The overnight intensification of missile exchanges between Tehran and Tel Aviv–occurring just as Hezbollah announced on Wednesday evening the launch of Operation “Eaten Straw” (an allusion to Quranic account of Abraha’s army, decimated by clay stones dropped by birds)–is a direct consequence of rising hostilities around the strategic Strait of Hormuz. This flashpoint now threatens to become a decisive turning point in the ongoing conflict.

A serious escalation occurred on Wednesday evening between Israel and Hezbollah. The pro-Iranian party launched nearly 200 rockets in a few minutes against northern Israel and Galilee earlier in the evening. The Israeli air force was quick to retaliate by carrying out a series of particularly violent raids against the southern suburbs, which were quickly covered in thick clouds of black smoke. Following the escalation initiated by Hezbollah, Israeli sources indicated late in the evening (Beirut time) that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was examining with his staff the possibility of expanding the ground intervention into Lebanon. In this context, an Israeli security source stated on Wednesday evening that the United States could participate in air raids « in Baalbek and the Beqaa ». The same source specified that « the military operation will not stop at the Litani ». « We will act from South to North, and all targets are legitimate », added the Israeli source.

The population of Lebanon, as well as the populations of the Levant, Gulf, and Middle Eastern countries, are subjected to a veritable Scottish shower (a sudden reversal of fortune). On the one hand, rumors suggest an upcoming end to hostilities on the Iranian front (without encompassing Lebanon), but at the same time, a clear escalation in military operations is perceptible. Wednesday, March 11, and the night of March 10, were marked by an intensification of raids and missile fire in more than one direction. Israeli aviation thus continued its intensive raids on the night of March 10 against the nerve centers and infrastructure of the Iranian regime in Tehran, and against the southern suburbs of Beirut and several villages in South Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley. Missiles were also launched against positions of the Kurdish Iranian opposition in Iraq, while the US-Israeli coalition air force launched raids against the offices of the pro-Iranian Iraqi militia, “El Hashed al-Shaabi” (“Popular Mobilization”), and Iraqi Hezbollah, stationed in Iraq. Several missile alerts were also reported on Wednesday in Dubai and Doha, notably.