Today's Essential

“They are finished (…). This war is seven times more powerful than the previous one.” With those few words, U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth summed up the diection the war – launched on February 28 by the United States and Israel against the Iranian mullahs’sbregime – has taken, or is now beginning to take. The U.S. minister stressed that this war remains in its early stages, specifying that additional aircraft and military forces will be dispatched soon to the Middle East to take part in ongoing operations. The Secretary of War’s remarks clearly reflect the developments now unfolding in Iran. March 4, 2026, was marked above all by intense and sustained airstrikes carried out by the Israeli Air Force against regime buildings, command centers and infrastructure in the Tehran region. More than one hundred Basij centers – the repressive armed wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – were reportedly targeted by Israeli bombers. “No Revolutionary Guard building will be left standing,” an official Israeli source said, adding that the U.S. and Israeli militaries are dividing the task of destroying the regime’s military and civilian infrastructure. According to the same source, Israeli aircraft are focusing on western Iran, targeting regime buildings, command centers and civilian infrastructure, while the United States is taking charge in the southwest, striking nuclear sites, ballistic missiles, launch pads, ballistic missile production facilities, air defense systems and naval forces. Turkey Targeted by an Iranian Missile The most striking development on March 4 was the launch of an Iranian ballistic missile toward – of all places – Turkey. The missile was intercepted by a NATO unit before reaching its target. The immediate consequence: Ankara did not hold back in criticizing the behavior of the Iranian regime, going so far as to describe Iranian missile strikes against Gulf countries as a “serious mistake.” Another key development of the day was Qatar’s announcement that it had dismantled a subversive cell allegedly set up by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards to conduct espionage and sabotage operations on Qatari soil. After Cyprus and the Gulf states – which have been, and continue to be, targeted by Iranian missiles – the attempted strike against Turkey clearly reflects the determination of the Revolutionary Guards to widen the scope of the conflict, in the hope of triggering international mobilization to halt the U.S. and Israeli offensive. Another major development over the past 24 hours has been the arrival of U.S. B-52 bombers. In practical terms, this signals that American and Israeli aircraft now exercise full control over Iranian airspace – particularly in the south of the country and over the Tehran region – a point confirmed Wednesday by the Secretary of War during a press conference. The B-52s are heavy bombers and therefore relatively slow-moving aircraft. They can be easily detected by radar and, as such, would ordinarily constitute vulnerable targets. The fact that the U.S. military has deployed B-52s confirms that American and Israeli forces now effectively control Iranian airspace. The entry of the B-52s marks a significant development in the course of the military operations, as these bombers can carry and deliver extremely large bombs with high precision. The Lebanese Front On the Lebanese front, the Israeli Air Force has intensified its raids and expanded them into new areas, targeting infrastructure, ammunition depots, and missile and drone stockpiles. On the morning of Wednesday, March 4, heavy and sustained strikes were carried out against the southern suburbs of Beirut. Over the past 24 hours, airstrikes have spread to new areas, with the Hazmieh district targeted for the first time. The Israeli Air Force struck the Comfort Hotel, where some reports suggest an Iranian diplomat had taken refuge. No information has emerged regarding the diplomat’s fate. Meanwhile, new areas have been targeted by the Israeli Air Force, including Saadiyate (on the Southern Route), Bchemoun, and Aramoun, where a senior figure from the military branch of the Muslim Brotherhood is reported to have been killed. In Baalbeck, a four-story building was completely destroyed in a raid that caused multiple fatalities. On the ground, Israeli forces continued their limited deployment inside Lebanese territory on Wednesday, reaching the strategically important town of Khiam, six kilometers from the border. At the same time, Israeli artillery units significantly reinforced their presence along the frontier. As airstrikes continue across multiple areas, a serious development occurred on Wednesday: the Israeli military called on residents in the entire region south of the Litani River to evacuate their villages and move north of the river. The warning has heightened concerns among local authorities and communities, who fear that Israel may be seeking to establish a broad buffer zone, potentially allowing it at a later stage to impose political and security conditions far beyond the provisions of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and the November 2024 ceasefire agreement. By taking the suicidal initiative of reopening the South Lebanon front at the instigation of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Hezbollah has effectively handed Israel a golden pretext to impose strategic agreements on the Lebanese state on its own terms in the near future.

The initiative taken by Hezbollah on the night of March 1 st to March 2 to reactivate the South Lebanon front, presumably at the request of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, will it lead to a return of Israeli occupation in part of the country's southern region? This question was acutely raised on Tuesday, March 3, 2026, in light of the announcement by Israeli Defense Minister, Israel Katz, of the Hebrew State's decision to "take control of additional areas" in South Lebanon "to protect border communities." Clearly, the Israeli army will advance into Lebanese territory and occupy new sectors that will be added to the five strategic positions from which the IDF had not withdrawn after the implementation of the ceasefire agreed upon in November 2024. This new partial occupation of new territories near the border between the two countries could have two explanations. It could be the prelude to the establishment of a buffer zone between Lebanon and Israel to further secure the border and northern Israel. The question would then be to know what the extent and depth of this "security zone" could be, and what political consequences this occupation could have on bilateral negotiations. Would the Hebrew State take advantage of this advance into Lebanese territory to impose a peace agreement or at least a binding security arrangement? Some observers even go so far as to envision the occupation of much larger portions of territory than a buffer zone, alluding in this regard to a possible scenario similar to that of 1982. Proponents of this thesis rely on repeated calls launched by the Israeli army to the inhabitants of the South to evacuate their villages as soon as possible. However, a much less ambitious hypothesis, politically, is put forward in light of the current context. The new positions occupied by Israel could serve to facilitate targeted and meticulously planned operations that commando units would carry out deeper into Lebanese territory. It will therefore be necessary to wait a few days to learn more about the true intentions of the Netanyahu cabinet. Immediately, the Lebanese army carried out a tactical withdrawal from about twenty positions not far from the border with Israel. In any event, while awaiting the true intentions of Tel Aviv to become clear, the inhabitants of South Lebanon are once again suffering the anguish of forced exodus, while Israeli aviation continued on Tuesday, for the fourth consecutive day, to intermittently bomb the southern suburbs of Beirut as well as many villages in the southern regions. In the afternoon, a raid targeted a "Islamic Jihad" headquarters in Saida. Intensive raids against Tehran In Iran, Israeli aviation announced that it had carried out the ninth wave of air attacks against the centers and infrastructure of the Mullahs' regime in Tehran on Tuesday. Intensive raids were thus carried out against several sectors of the capital, which was covered in a thick cloud of black smoke by late afternoon. One of these raids notably targeted the building where the 88 experts called to elect the new Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic were supposed to meet. The building was completely destroyed. Furthermore, an airstrike killed the new Iranian Defense Minister who had succeeded the former Defense Minister two days earlier, who had been killed on February 28 during the first wave of raids against the capital. This first wave had allowed the Hebrew State's air force to neutralize Iranian air defenses and thus ensure total control of the airspace over the Tehran region. It should also be noted that missile firings continued on Tuesday against several Gulf countries. The US embassy headquarters in Riyadh was notably hit by two missiles, which caused only minor material damage. In the early evening, a strong explosion was heard in Dubai. This Iranian shelling spared no Gulf country and even encompassed the Sultanate of Oman, which had nonetheless redoubled its efforts in recent years to serve as a mediator between the Islamic Republic and the West. The intensification of missile fire towards the Gulf has significantly deteriorated relations between the monarchies and the Islamic Republic. Over the past forty-eight hours, several Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman, have adopted an openly hostile, aggressive, and firm discourse towards Tehran, which will undoubtedly have a serious impact on the future face of the Middle East.

On the third day of the US-Israeli offensive against the Iranian regime (the joint operation "Roar of the Lions"), developments accelerated on the military front and spread to Lebanon. During the night of Sunday, March 1st, to Monday, March 2nd, and throughout Monday, the Lebanese front erupted in violence following missile attacks launched by Hezbollah against northern Israel, particularly the Haifa region. Brazenly disregarding the clear position of almost all local political factions and, above all, the central government, which explicitly warned the pro-Iranian party against any attempt to become involved in the Iranian conflict, Hezbollah nevertheless made the suicidal decision to drag Lebanon into this war (yet another pointless war) to avenge the death of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei, killed last Saturday, February 28, during the first Israeli airstrike in Tehran. The reaction to this reactivation of the South Lebanon front was swift. Less than an hour after the missile strikes, Israel launched intense airstrikes, along with a naval bombardment, against the southern suburbs of Beirut and some towns in the southern part of the country. One of these raids targeted MP Mohammed Raad, head of Hezbollah's parliamentary bloc and deputy secretary-general of the party. This attack also left around thirty people dead. At the same time, the Israeli army published a list of some fifty villages in South Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, emphasizing that residents should evacuate these localities. This call caused massive traffic jams on the outskirts of the southern suburbs and on the roads of South Lebanon throughout Sunday night and into Monday morning. On Monday morning and afternoon, the raids against the suburbs and villages of South Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley continued. Israel announced that it had killed two senior Hezbollah officials, including the head of intelligence. The Shiite party's decision to become involved in the Iranian conflict has provoked an outcry in political circles, particularly within the government. President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam explicitly condemned Hezbollah's behavior, stressing that it was intolerable for Lebanon to be drawn into a war that did not concern it. The Government and Berri's Position On Monday morning, the Council of Ministers held an extraordinary marathon meeting at the Baabda Palace, at the end of which Mr. Salam read an official statement indicating that the government now considers Hezbollah's military and security actions "illegal" and "prohibited." The statement specifies that the Lebanese army has been tasked with taking all necessary measures to implement this decision, particularly regarding the surrender of the pro-Iranian group's weapons to the state and the arrest of violators. Speaking out against any missile or drone launches toward Israel, the government called on Hezbollah to henceforth limit its actions to purely political matters. This decision by the Council of Ministers clearly constitutes a fundamental turning point, as it formally recognizes the illegality of Hezbollah's military apparatus and, consequently, officially strips the Shiite party of the status of "resistance movement" that it has stubbornly claimed for itself and, above all, imposed on the Lebanese authorities for decades. In this context, it should be noted that, according to sources close to the Speaker of Parliament and leader of the Amal Movement, Nabif Berri, he has supported the state's position regarding the now illegal nature of Hezbollah's militia. These same sources assert that, in light of recent developments, Mr. Berri has decided to withdraw the political support he had been providing to the pro-Iranian group. If this information is confirmed, it would imply a break, or at the very least a chill, between Amal and Hezbollah. It is worth recalling in this regard that in the 1980s, a veritable war, which lasted for several months, pitted the two Shiite factions against each other. It ended in a defeat for the Amal movement, which has since aligned itself politically with the pro-Iranian party. If it is confirmed that Mr. Berry supports the Council of Ministers' decision to deem Hezbollah's military and security actions illegal, this would constitute a severe blow to the alliance between the two Shiite factions, an alliance that has hampered Lebanese political life since the late 1980s. This turning point would be all the more significant as it would occur within the context of the current decline of the Iranian mullahs' "empire" under the blows ofof the American-Israeli offensive (codenamed "Roar of the Lions"). American and British Positions Regarding the progress of Operation "Roar of the Lions," American and Israeli aircraft continued their intensive raids on Monday against Iranian military positions, including air defense systems and missile depots and launch sites. After securing and fully controlling Tehran's airspace, the Israeli Air Force gained control of western Iran. This air superiority allows the two allies to systematically destroy Iranian missile stockpiles. At the same time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continued its intermittent missile strikes against Gulf countries, even reaching the British base in Cyprus. On the political front, President Donald Trump indicated in an interview with a US newspaper that he did not rule out sending ground troops "if necessary." The White House chief also specified that the operation was ahead of schedule thanks to the elimination of several high-ranking Iranian officials in the first hours of the offensive. He further indicated that "the main operation has not yet been launched." For his part, US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth outlined the objectives and scope of the offensive against Iran during a meeting with US military officers and soldiers. Mr. Hegseth explained that Iran's ballistic missile arsenal and the regime's nuclear program posed a real danger to the United States and its allies. The US Secretary emphasized the need to bring down the regime in Tehran. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer echoed this sentiment, stressing the need to destroy Iran's missile stockpiles and launch sites. He indicated in this context that his government had given a favorable response to the American request to use British bases to launch raids against Iranian military positions.

Could it have been otherwise? Lebanon, which has been since 1973 the sole active front of every regional war, could it, for once, have remained outside an existential conflict for one of its political components — Hezbollah — insofar as the latter forms an integral part of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, currently under Israeli-American fire in Tehran? No. Hezbollah thus magnificently ignored the international warnings relayed these past days by the Lebanese state, to the effect that its intervention in the ongoing war between Iran and the American-Israeli axis would provoke its annihilation and cost Lebanon dearly. As if the party wanted to deliver a resounding snub to the President of the Republic, Joseph Aoun, and to the Salam cabinet. During the night of March 1st to 2nd, the pro-Iranian party fired missiles and launched drones toward Israeli army positions in northern Israel, notably in Haifa, before officially announcing that this constituted a legitimate response to the assassination of the wali el-faqih , Ali Khamenei, on February 28th in Tehran. In doing so, Hezbollah once again flung open the gates of hell, acting, as is its habit, unilaterally by virtue of its direct allegiance to the Revolutionary Guards. Israel seized upon the pretext it had been waiting for to immediately unleash a series of particularly violent raids on southern Lebanon as well as on Beirut's southern suburbs — fifteen raids in a matter of minutes, their detonations as powerful as those that had killed Hassan Nasrallah and then Hashem Safieddine in late September 2024 — in the name of retaliation. The Israeli army subsequently announced that it had targeted "with precision a number of prominent figures and leaders" of the party through these raids, without providing further details. The President of the Council, Nawaf Salam, issued a communiqué characterizing the rocket fire on Israel as "irresponsible and suspect," specifying that "the Lebanese state would not allow Lebanon to be dragged into new adventures and that it would take the necessary measures to apprehend those responsible for the firing and to protect the Lebanese people." For its part, the Israeli army added that its chief of staff had approved an attack against Hezbollah, accusing the pro-Iranian party of plunging Lebanon into war, and threatening to exact an exorbitant price from "any enemy that threatens our security." Israeli official media also announced that the operation against Hezbollah "would continue for several days," calling on residents of 53 villages in South Lebanon and the Bekaa to evacuate. An Inevitable Psychic Collapse If it shatters forty-eight hours of impromptu and unusual Lebanese calm — all the more so as the entire Gulf, Iraq, and even Cyprus are now being drawn into the spiral of war against Iran — Hezbollah's move is hardly surprising. True, many had wagered on the party's lucidity and pragmatism, particularly since the deadly Israeli strikes of 2024 during which its entire military directorate had been decimated — notably its leader, Nasrallah, then his successor, Hashem Safieddine. That is to misunderstand Hezbollah structurally. Since the massive setback of 2024, American pressures on the Lebanese state have multiplied, calling on the party to hand its weapons over to the Lebanese state and dismantle its positions south of the Litani. Its paramilitary organization is constantly targeted by the Hebrew state's targeted assassinations; its weapons caches and attempts to reconstitute its strike force — with the help (and under the direct control?) of the Revolutionary Guards — are precisely monitored and systematically destroyed by the Israeli air force, notably in Baalbek, north of the Litani. Moreover, there exists a near-unanimous political consensus on the Lebanese scene around the necessity of restoring the monopoly on legitimate violence, which means that Hezbollah will have to renounce, sooner or later, what constitutes its superpower — if not its totalitarian hegemony over the entirety of Lebanon's political components for the past twenty years: its arsenal. Which it naturally refuses to do, openly defying the Lebanese executive authority — and, beyond that, the Lebanese people's desire to finally live in a posture of neutrality vis-à-vis regional conflicts. More still: with the disappearance of Khamenei and all the senior Revolutionary Guard commanders over the past forty-eight hours, Hezbollah has lost all its existential reference points at once. No longer merely on the political and military plane. It is Hezbollah's very doctrine — since its founding in the early 1980s as the privileged instrument for the export of the Islamic revolution to Lebanon — that has been struck at its very heart. In killing Khamenei, the United States and Israel killed not only Hezbollah's political, military and spiritual reference, but — in the eyes of the party and its followers — nothing less than God's representative on earth. In the millenarian sectarian spirit of this theocratic, martyrdom-obsessed pro-Iranian party — which resembles an eschatological millenarian cult — this cannot but provoke total decompensation and dissociation from reality. In other words, with the assassination of the wali el-faqih, every prospect of transcendence has been annihilated within Hezbollah. It is, in a sense, a negationist shock capable of triggering total psychic collapse. The only response to this shock, for a militia cornered — whatever its desire for political realism — into remaining faithful to its vocation, its mission, its doctrine and its beliefs, confronted simultaneously with the annihilation of its military and political power and of its founding myth, can only be a strategic suicide of the Masada variety. Even if this must mean the total destruction of Lebanon and its inhabitants, beginning, once more, with the party's "revolutionary heartland" — South Lebanon, the Bekaa, the southern suburbs. And one must wager that Israel will not limit itself to these regions, as it did in 2024, when it notably bombed Jbeil, the North, and Beirut. Hezbollah has just dragged Lebanon into war solely out of a drive toward self-destruction, without any viable gain possible, merely as a final bravado, a last-ditch stand in service of an Iranian directorate that has cared nothing — as it has ceaselessly demonstrated over the past two decades — for the Arab human lives that fall for its geopolitical calculations and personal interests. This is the other name for the absurd — in the mold of Jim Jones and David Koresh. Lebanon need not pay the price of a mortifying eschatological delirium, of a death drive provoked by a psychopathological plunge of gnostic character into total nothingness. One thing is certain: Israel was waiting — doubtless with behavioral foreknowledge — for precisely this suicidal gesture in order to position itself as a victim and justify a premeditated and carefully prepared military intervention — or even, who knows, a potential invasion. Once again, as in 2024 when it acted to support Gaza, Hezbollah — to avenge Khamenei and the ongoing destruction of the Iranian empire — has handed Israel the golden pretext, in a symbolic gesture not unlike that of Zopyrus, the Persian notable who, according to Herodotus, insidiously offered, "from within," the keys of Babylon to Darius I.

On the second day of the US-Israeli offensive against the Iranian regime, military operations escalated on Sunday, March 1, 2026, in a manner that could be described as "qualitative" due to the official confirmation in Tehran of the death of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ali Khamenei, killed in the first airstrikes carried out on Saturday morning, February 28, against his residence in the Iranian capital. The Leader's death was confirmed overnight from Saturday to Sunday by state television, and the authorities immediately declared a forty-day period of national mourning. The announcement of Khamenei's death sparked popular jubilation and celebrations in the streets of Tehran and several other major cities. The Iranian regime, however, asserted that the United States and Israel had crossed "a red line," declaring that the response would be "swift and decisive." Indeed, the mullahs' regime launched a full-scale attack on Sunday morning to avenge the death of the Supreme Leader. In what appears to be a suicidal escalation, or a reaffirmation of a blind adherence to the cult of death and martyrdom, the Revolutionary Guards intensified their missile strikes on Sunday against Israel, certainly, but especially against the Gulf states, even including—in an unprecedented development—Cyprus, where two missiles targeted the British base on the island. Bahrain, Dubai, Kuwait, and the outskirts of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, were also included in this onslaught. Even the Sultanate of Oman, which in recent years has played the role of mediator and conciliator between the mullahs' regime and the United States, was not spared, under the pretext of targeting an American ship anchored in an Omani port. Raids Against Command Centers As part of the Israeli offensive, the Israeli Air Force conducted dozens of raids Sunday morning in various regions to neutralize Iranian air defenses and consolidate its control of the airspace. An Israeli military spokesperson indicated around noon that this objective had been largely achieved, allowing Israeli aircraft to better target their strikes. Indeed, in the early afternoon, a raid targeted a command center in the heart of Tehran, comprised of several large, adjacent buildings. A video released by the Israeli military shows these buildings—four or five in number—collapsing completely under the weight of Israeli bombs, in impressive plumes of white smoke. The air force thus appears to have begun a vast series of raids targeting command centers and, undoubtedly, key figures in the Iranian regime. On Saturday, an authorized source in Tel Aviv indicated that these raids constituted a "first phase that will last four days." A Transitional Council It should also be noted in this context that following the death of the Supreme Leader, a Transitional Council was formed, comprising Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian, the head of the judiciary, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, and a religious dignitary who is a member of the Assembly of Experts and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Alireza Arafi. This triumvirate is tasked with ensuring the interim leadership until the election of a new Supreme Leader. Seven Senior Officials Killed It is worth recalling that the Israeli army announced on Saturday evening that it had killed seven senior regime officials: Ali Shemkhani, Secretary General of the Defense Council and personal advisor to the Supreme Leader on security matters. Mohammed Bakpour, commander of the ground forces within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Aziz Nassir Zada, Minister of Defense and head of military industries. Mohammed Chirazi, Chairman of the Military Bureau of Imam Khamenei. Salah Assadi, Head of the Intelligence Section at the Emergency Command. Hussein Jabal Amelyane, Chairman of the SPND association, responsible for developing military technologies and nuclear and biological programs. Rida Mazfari Nya, former member of SPND. Meeting of the Supreme Defense Council in Baabda On a purely Lebanese level, President Joseph Aoun convened the Supreme Defense Council for an extraordinary meeting on Sunday morning, held at the Baabda Palace. The communiqué issued after the discussions reiterates, for all to hear, that the decision regarding war and peace rests solely with the Lebanese state. A “diplomatic”, but very explicit warning to Hezbollah so that it is not tempted to drag the country into a new sterile and pointless war that does not concern it in any way.