War in Iran: three decisive days before the end of the US ultimatum

The ten-day deadline Washington had given Tehran to respond to the fifteen conditions for a cessation of hostilities expires on Sunday, with no concrete sign of a possible de-escalation on the horizon. Positions, on the contrary, seem to be hardening, as the United States and Iran sharpen their weapons in anticipation of a possible new phase of the military conflict and confusion still reigns regarding possible talks between the two states.

The violent reaction of the Islamic Republic to President Donald Trump's eagerly awaited speech to Americans on Wednesday evening, coupled with counter-threats, reveals the difficulty of the mission undertaken by mediators to push the two main belligerents to initiate a dialogue.

At the heart of the standoff remains this constant in the form of a question: what should be established first, dialogue or a ceasefire? Iran, which is not hostile to the principle of dialogue, but which rejected Washington's 15 conditions, deeming them excessive and unachievable, continues to demand that the United States end its offensive, which President Trump again rejected on Wednesday.

The tone has thus risen again between the two. In Washington, where preparations are being made strenuously for a ground offensive that could be the grand finale articulated around the control of strategic Iranian sites, there is a promise to "bring Iran back to the Stone Age," in the absence of an agreement, while Tehran brandishes the threat of "devastating" attacks against the United States and Israel.

Donald Trump thus announced to Americans in his speech, on Wednesday night, that the strikes, which he deemed necessary to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, would not cease anytime soon. He recalled in this regard the "decisive" victories recorded, emphasizing that he is "close to achieving" his objectives in Iran, "We are going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We are going to take them back to the Stone Age where they belong," he launched.

He again threatened to attack Iranian energy infrastructure, stating that in the absence of an agreement, the United States would "hit each of their power plants very hard and probably simultaneously." Washington had decided to postpone these attacks pending Tehran's response to its 15 conditions.

Enriched uranium

The American president did not elaborate on possible talks, reaffirming what he repeatedly states on the subject, namely that it is the Iranians who wish to engage in dialogue and that they themselves have called for a ceasefire, which the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs was quick to deny. He also refrained from mentioning a possible deployment of ground troops, a very unpopular prospect in the United States.

Donald Trump briefly mentioned the issue of Iran's enriched uranium reserves, assuring that they were very deeply buried, implying that satellite surveillance would suffice for the time being.

He also quickly touched on the subject that worries Americans and has caused him to slump in polls for a month: the surge in gasoline prices.

This is, according to him, a "short-term" phenomenon. The American economy has "never been stronger," he reassured.

Donald Trump also recalled that the United States, an oil exporter, did not depend on supplies transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, blocked by Iran.

Meeting around Hormuz

The countries suffering from the blocking of this strategic maritime route must "deal with it," he declared, while promising not to "abandon" his Gulf allies. He did not reiterate his virulent attacks against NATO, particularly European countries, which, however, risk being forced to intervene to restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's main lever in its standoff with the United States.

In this context, it should be noted that the foreign ministers of some forty countries, including Japan, held a virtual meeting on Thursday to discuss the closure of this essential artery for international trade, over which Tehran threatens to exercise total control by imposing transit fees.

During these exchanges, the head of British diplomacy, Yvette Cooper, announced another meeting, to be held at the military level to discuss joint action aimed at ensuring a lasting reopening of the strait and the security of oil tankers and cargo ships, once the war is over, without specifying which countries would be represented.

France, for example, remains firmly opposed to a military operation for this purpose. Its president, Emmanuel Macron, on a state visit to Seoul, thus described any military operation to unblock the Hormuz passage as "unrealistic." "It is never the option we have chosen," he commented, believing that it risks "taking an infinite amount of time" and would involve "numerous risks."

Except that, while waiting for a hypothetical unblocking, fuel prices continue to soar, affecting the entire international economy.

Intensification of strikes

Another lever of pressure for Iran is the attacks against Gulf countries, which intensified after Donald Trump's speech, simultaneously with coordinated missile strikes against Israel.

This intensification of strikes, which continued throughout Thursday, followed Iranian threats of "devastating" attacks against the United States and Israel, subsequent to the American president's address.

The operational commander of the Iranian army assured, in a statement broadcast by state television, that this war would continue until the "humiliation" of Iran's enemies.

Its proxies remain fully engaged in this same strategy, totally indifferent to its consequences for the countries from which they originate. This is notably the case of Hezbollah which, like Iran, simultaneously intensified its strikes against northern Israel on Wednesday night into Thursday and throughout Thursday.

This increase in cross-border violence in the south prompted Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz to address his threats directly to Hezbollah leader Naïm Qassem, "and his colleagues who will pay the price for launching rockets into Israel during the Jewish Passover." "We will purify southern Lebanon of Hezbollah and its supporters and pluck the fangs of this snake throughout Lebanon," he further threatened while his army proceeded to destroy homes in the border area.

Salam's declaration

On the Lebanese political front, at the end of the Council of Ministers which he chaired in the morning, the head of the Lebanese government, Nawaf Salam, denounced the scorched-earth policy applied by Israel in southern Lebanon to establish a buffer zone, but he simultaneously criticized the adventure into which the pro-Iranian faction had dragged the country, "which has become the theater of other people's wars," with an excessively high human, social, material, and economic cost.

"Nothing should consecrate a link between the conflict on our territory and the wars of others, in which we have no interest, including military operations announced as joint and coordinated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard," he stigmatized, emphasizing that his government is striving to extricate the country from this war by political and diplomatic means.