Today's Essential

As the Israeli-American offensive against Iran enters its tenth day–an assault that has set the entire region ablaze, Lebanon included–tensions continue to mount. While US and Israeli authorities are raising the tone, the pillars of the Iranian regime, currently fighting for their survival, have responded with heightened virulence, appearing to find a second wind following the announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader. US President Donald Trump set the tone on Monday, claiming he believes the war is “very complete, pretty much.” In an interview with CBS, the president suggested that the conflict is moving “very far ahead” of its initial schedule. “It is we who will decide when the war ends,” the Revolutionary Guards shot back in a defiant statement.

This tenth day of the American-Israeli offensive against the Iranian mullahs' regime was marked by three highlights: the strong stance adopted by President Joseph Aoun, who severely condemned the behavior of Hezbollah, and furthermore declared himself in favor of direct negotiations with Israel under international supervision; the intense Israeli aerial bombardments against the southern suburbs of Beirut, specifically against the offices of Qard el-Hassan (Hezbollah's illegal financial structure); and the Parliament's vote to extend the mandate of deputies for a period of two years. This vote, which passed with a slim majority of 76 votes, is explained by the State's inability to organize the legislative elections that were supposed to take place in two months, next May. At the current stage, no one can predict the duration of the armed conflict initiated by Hezbollah on the local scene, especially since this new war, which is once again shaking Lebanon, is entirely dependent on the overall regional context.

The night of Friday, March 6 to Saturday, March 7, was marked by an Israeli helicopter-borne intrusion into a village in the Beqaa Valley, the apparent objective of which was to search for the remains of Ron Arad, an Israeli airman who disappeared in 1986 after his plane was shot down. The inhabitants of several Lebanese regions, notably Mount Lebanon, heard the incessant noise of Israeli low-altitude aviation throughout the night from Friday to Saturday. The operation itself took place in a village in Baalbeck in the northern Beqaa, Nabi Chit, which was the scene of a commando unit's operation.

The Lebanese government undertook intensive diplomatic activity on Friday, March 6, in an attempt to put an end to the rampant degradation shaking the country, following the reopening of the South Lebanon front by Hezbollah, on the night of the 1 st to March 2, disregarding all warnings addressed to Lebanon on this plan in recent weeks. Faced with this new suicidal adventure by the formation allied with the Pasdaran, the paramilitary and security activities of the pro-Iranian party were banned on Monday by the government of Nawaf Salam. But Hezbollah remains completely deaf to official injunctions and remains deeply engaged, under instruction from the Islamic Republic of Iran, in a regional war to which Lebanon is completely foreign.

The Council of Ministers, meeting on Thursday at the Grand Serail, adopted several measures aimed at preventing any activity and presence of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Lebanon, in what is perceived as a real hunt for Pasdaran in the country. The government has asked the relevant ministries (Defense and Interior), as well as municipalities and various security services, to take all necessary measures to prevent any military and security activity of the Revolutionary Guards on Lebanese territory. The concerned authorities have been tasked with detecting the presence of Pasdaran in the country, arresting them, and expelling them. Furthermore, upon a proposal from the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Joe Raggi, the government decided to require an entry visa for all Iranian nationals wishing to travel to Lebanon.

The American-Israeli offensive launched on February 28 against the Iranian mullahs' regime, as well as the subsequent reopening of the South Lebanon front by Hezbollah, on the night of March 1 st to March 2, have taken a new turn over the past forty-eight hours. As aerial raids against Hezbollah positions continue, particularly in the southern suburbs of Beirut and in several villages in the southern region of the country, the Israeli air force is escalating targeted raids aimed at eliminating senior leaders of the pro-Iranian faction and fundamentalist Palestinian organizations. On Wednesday, March 4, and during the day on Thursday, March 5, raids were carried out in Aramoun, Saadiyate, Bchemoun, Choueifat, Saida, Hazmieh, on the road to Beirut airport (where two Hezbollah leaders were assassinated), Zahle and in the Palestinian camp of Baddawi, in North Lebanon, where a senior Hamas official was killed.

“They are finished (…). This war is seven times more powerful than the previous one.” With those few words, U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth summed up the diection the war – launched on February 28 by the United States and Israel against the Iranian mullahs’sbregime – has taken, or is now beginning to take. The U.S. minister stressed that this war remains in its early stages, specifying that additional aircraft and military forces will be dispatched soon to the Middle East to take part in ongoing operations. The Secretary of War’s remarks clearly reflect the developments now unfolding in Iran. March 4, 2026, was marked above all by intense and sustained airstrikes carried out by the Israeli Air Force against regime buildings, command centers and infrastructure in the Tehran region. More than one hundred Basij centers – the repressive armed wing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – were reportedly targeted by Israeli bombers.

The initiative taken by Hezbollah on the night of March 1 st to March 2 to reactivate the South Lebanon front, presumably at the request of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, will it lead to a return of Israeli occupation in part of the country's southern region? This question was acutely raised on Tuesday, March 3, 2026, in light of the announcement by Israeli Defense Minister, Israel Katz, of the Hebrew State's decision to "take control of additional areas" in South Lebanon "to protect border communities." Clearly, the Israeli army will advance into Lebanese territory and occupy new sectors that will be added to the five strategic positions from which the IDF had not withdrawn after the implementation of the ceasefire agreed upon in November 2024.

On the third day of the US-Israeli offensive against the Iranian regime (the joint operation "Roar of the Lions"), developments accelerated on the military front and spread to Lebanon. During the night of Sunday, March 1st, to Monday, March 2nd, and throughout Monday, the Lebanese front erupted in violence following missile attacks launched by Hezbollah against northern Israel, particularly the Haifa region. Brazenly disregarding the clear position of almost all local political factions and, above all, the central government, which explicitly warned the pro-Iranian party against any attempt to become involved in the Iranian conflict, Hezbollah nevertheless made the suicidal decision to drag Lebanon into this war (yet another pointless war) to avenge the death of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei, killed last Saturday, February 28, during the first Israeli airstrike in Tehran.

Could it have been otherwise? Lebanon, which has been since 1973 the sole active front of every regional war, could it, for once, have remained outside an existential conflict for one of its political components — Hezbollah — insofar as the latter forms an integral part of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, currently under Israeli-American fire in Tehran? No. Hezbollah thus magnificently ignored the international warnings relayed these past days by the Lebanese state, to the effect that its intervention in the ongoing war between Iran and the American-Israeli axis would provoke its annihilation and cost Lebanon dearly. As if the party wanted to deliver a resounding snub to the President of the Republic, Joseph Aoun, and to the Salam cabinet.