Today's Essential

Fears of a military conflict between Iran and the axis formed by Israel and the United States getting bogged down are being confirmed as developments on the ground accelerate and political and military confrontation between Tehran and Washington intensifies. On the fourteenth day of the war raging since February 28, Washington and Tel Aviv insist on their determination to annihilate the military capabilities of Tehran, which is reacting by expanding the scope of its attacks, just hours after the bellicose televised message from the new Iranian Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who was nevertheless injured in the violent strike that killed his father, Ali Khamenei. Diplomacy still seems to have no place in this tug-of-war whose outcome remains uncertain. For the first time since the beginning of the conflict, French targets in the region are being targeted by Iran. Yet, traditionally, Paris maintains cordial relations with the Islamic Republic, while remaining critical on certain issues. It would be interesting to note that the attack was not carried out directly by Tehran, unlike the one that targeted a British base in Cyprus on March 2. The missiles, launched by Iran, had been intercepted by Israel, according to British Defense Minister, John Healy. An occult pro-Iranian group calling itself Ashab el-Kahf thus claimed, on Friday, the nocturnal drone attack against a French base in Erbil, Iraq, where one French soldier was killed and at least five others were wounded. According to this group, it is a reaction to the deployment of the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle in the Gulf. An initiative that French President, Emmanuel Macron, had taken “for defensive purposes.” Ashab el-Kahf also announced its intention to target all French interests in the region and not only in Iraq. The attack on the French base should not, however, be solely attributed to a response to the deployment of the Charles de Gaulle. Iran is primarily seeking to send a message to President Macron, who had sharply criticized it last week, calling Ali Khamenei, the former Supreme Leader killed by Israeli-American strikes, a “butcher.” Emmanuel Macron had also attacked Hezbollah, blaming it for dragging Lebanon into a war that does not concern it. Thus, at a time when Washington and Tel Aviv continue to insist on their determination to annihilate Tehran's military capabilities, the Mullahs' regime strives to show that it maintains them and that it still has the ability to increase pressure on its “enemies” by intensifying its missile and drone attacks and by continuing to block the Strait of Hormuz, much to the chagrin of the United States. Hours after the threats from the new Iranian Supreme Leader, who promised to plunge the region into chaos, Iranian attacks intensified against American bases in Saudi Arabia, where 56 drones were intercepted overnight from Thursday to Friday, according to Riyadh, in the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, where a missile directly hit a residential building. Turkey also announced that NATO intercepted an Iranian missile fired in its direction in the eastern Mediterranean basin. In Israel, military officials, quoted by media, however, said they had observed a decrease in the frequency of Iranian missile and drone attacks, particularly against Israeli territory. However, it remains under fire from Hezbollah attacks, which launched several volleys against northern Israel overnight from Thursday to Friday and then again on Friday, further plunging Lebanon into a spiral of violence that it remains unable to curb. In retaliation, Israel did not content itself with bombing the sectors and villages where the pro-Iranian formation is located or carrying out targeted assassinations, as in Nabaa, north of Beirut, on Friday morning, but undertook to execute its threat to strike Lebanese civilian infrastructure. First targets: two bridges at the Litani in South Lebanon, one of which connects the districts of Tyre, Nabatiyeh, Bint Jbeil and Zahrani and is therefore of strategic importance. Meanwhile, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres began an official visit to Lebanon. In the current circumstances, this is a mere formality, as the UN has no leverage or room for maneuver to end the ongoing conflict, or intervene to extricate Lebanon from the threat that Hezbollah poses to the country's long-term security. In a message on his social network, Truth Social, President Trump reaffirmed that Tehran is on the verge of capitulation. “We are totally destroying the terrorist regime of Iran, militarily, economically and otherwise.” “The Iranian navy is gone, their air force is no more, missiles, drones and everything else are decimated, and their leaders have been wiped off the face of the earth,” he added. Donald Trump repeated this same message during a virtual meeting of G7 leaders. According to the Axios website, he would have evoked a very close defeat. Hours earlier, Mojtaba Khamenei, despite being injured in the strike that killed his father, Ali Khamenei, affirmed that there was no question for Iran of “bending.”

Over the past twenty-four hours, a battery of indicators on the ground suggests that the war between Iran and the axis formed by Israel and the United States is on the verge of crossing a new threshold–an escalation from which Lebanon is not escaping. On the thirteen day of the military operation dubbed “Epic Fury” by US President Donald Trump, tensions have significantly surged across the dual Iran-Israel and Lebanon-Israel fronts, marked by a striking synchronicity between Hezbollah and Tehran. The overnight intensification of missile exchanges between Tehran and Tel Aviv–occurring just as Hezbollah announced on Wednesday evening the launch of Operation “Eaten Straw” (an allusion to Quranic account of Abraha’s army, decimated by clay stones dropped by birds)–is a direct consequence of rising hostilities around the strategic Strait of Hormuz. This flashpoint now threatens to become a decisive turning point in the ongoing conflict. For Washington, the security of tankers and merchant vessels transiting the strait remains a red line–one that Tehran has unhesitatingly crossed, sending global oil prices into a tailspin. It is a strategy that US President Donald Trump has warned against, yet one that Iran persists in wielding as a weapon to exert maximum pressure on him by destabilizing international market. Since Israel targeted fuel depots in Tehran last Sunday, the Mullahs’ regime has retaliated by striking oil fields and storage facilities across the Gulf states. Overnight Wednesday to Thursday, at least two tankers were attacked off the Iraqi coast, preceded hours earlier by a strike on a cargo ship. This volatile climate has prompted Gulf countries to slash their oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day, according to the International Energy Agency. The Mullahs’ regime, currently fighting for its very survival, is using every means at its disposal, declaring itself ready for a war of attrition. For now, however, this stance has failed to deter its adversaries, who remain resolute in seeing their military operation through to the end, as repeatedly affirmed by both Tel Aviv and Washington. So far, its strategy appears to have had been counterproductive. After blowing hot and cold over the past few days by suggesting that the war could end very soon, President Trump declared on Wednesday evening that Washington “must finish the job” in Iran, insisting there would be no “stopping halfway or leaving too early.” While he claimed that “Iran is close to defeat,” he remained elusive regarding the ultimate war aims: is the goal regime change– a possibility alluded to at the conflict’s outset–or merely the neutralization of the nuclear threat or Tehran’s capacity to develop ballistic missiles both of which pose a direct threat to the United States? His statement echoes that of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is more unequivocal regarding the war aims: the dismantling of the Mullahs’ regime due to the existential threat it poses to his country, and its military arm, Hezbollah. In this perspective, Tel Aviv is considering expanding its military operation in Lebanon. Its Defense Minister, Israel Katz, announced this on Thursday, the day after a restricted security council meeting was convened to discuss the following steps for the military engagement in Lebanon where, according to Tel Aviv media, the Israeli army occupies no longer five, but eighteen strategic points in view of a potential ground incursion. Israel Katz announced that an order has been given to the Israeli army to prepare to “extend its operations in Lebanon,” warning of a possible occupation of Lebanese territories to ensure the security of northern Israeli villages, should the government fail to end the Hezbollah’s bellicose activities. Israel also declared itself determined to act “everywhere in Lebanon, from the north to the south, including the Bekaa,” while the Lebanese government still struggles to curb the murderous and destructive madness of this organization. One week after its historic decision to ban Hezbollah’s paramilitary activities and initiate prosecutions against those launching missiles at Israel, the government has still not honored its commitment. Instead, it remains mired in managing the humanitarian crisis born from the hellish adventure into which Iran’s local agents have embarked Lebanon and the Lebanese people. The Council of Ministers, meeting on Thursday, thus decided to summon the Iranian Chargé d’Affaires to address the presence of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps representatives in Lebanon. Yet, there was not a single word regarding Hezbollah’s activities or the mission with which the army and security forces had been tasked to contain them. Return, therefore, to square one–that of the incapacity of a state which believes that Lebanon and the Lebanese have much to lose if it ventures onto this minefield, while the majority of Lebanese, across all affiliations, desire only one thing: to finish with Hezbollah and its criminal activities.

A serious escalation occurred on Wednesday evening between Israel and Hezbollah. The pro-Iranian party launched nearly 200 rockets in a few minutes against northern Israel and Galilee earlier in the evening. The Israeli air force was quick to retaliate by carrying out a series of particularly violent raids against the southern suburbs, which were quickly covered in thick clouds of black smoke. Following the escalation initiated by Hezbollah, Israeli sources indicated late in the evening (Beirut time) that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was examining with his staff the possibility of expanding the ground intervention into Lebanon. In this context, an Israeli security source stated on Wednesday evening that the United States could participate in air raids « in Baalbek and the Beqaa ». The same source specified that « the military operation will not stop at the Litani ». « We will act from South to North, and all targets are legitimate », added the Israeli source. Iran and Hezbollah stigmatized at the UN On the political-diplomatic front, the Arabic-language channel al-Hadath reported a statement by a senior military advisor to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution who promised to « destroy Israel ». These remarks undoubtedly reflect a desire for a reckless escalation on the part of the mullahs' regime. In New York, the behavior of the Islamic Republic and Hezbollah was severely and unanimously condemned. At the end of an extraordinary meeting dedicated to the war in Iran and the situation in Lebanon, the Security Council thus approved a resolution presented by Jordan and the Gulf States condemning Iranian attacks against Gulf countries. The UN resolution demands « an immediate halt to Iranian attacks ». Earlier on Wednesday afternoon, the French ambassador to the UN had read out a statement, in the presence of European Union ambassadors, calling Hezbollah's entry into war against Israel « irresponsible ». The French ambassador added that the pro-Iranian party must « cease its attacks against Israel and hand over its weapons to the Lebanese government ». In the same vein, the President of the French Senate, Gérard Larcher (a great friend of Lebanon for many years), stressed that France must help the Lebanese authorities disarm Hezbollah, which « does not defend Lebanon, but serves Iran's interests », he noted. For her part, the Assistant Secretary-General of the United Nations for Political Affairs condemned, during the Security Council meeting, Hezbollah's attitude, noting that this party « refused to cooperate with the Lebanese government to restore the sovereignty of the State and apply the decision on the monopoly of weapons ». As for Israel's ambassador to the UN, he presented Lebanon with a choice that leaves no room for procrastination. « The Lebanese government, » he declared, « is faced with the following alternative: either it dismantles Hezbollah's military apparatus, or we will do it ourselves »… It should also be noted that, concomitantly with the flare-up between Israel and Hezbollah, a major development occurred in Iran over the last twenty-four hours. An Iranian news agency thus indicated « that at least ten members of the security forces were killed during clashes with armed elements in Tehran ». No further details could be obtained regarding the scope of this incident.

The population of Lebanon, as well as the populations of the Levant, Gulf, and Middle Eastern countries, are subjected to a veritable Scottish shower (a sudden reversal of fortune). On the one hand, rumors suggest an upcoming end to hostilities on the Iranian front (without encompassing Lebanon), but at the same time, a clear escalation in military operations is perceptible. Wednesday, March 11, and the night of March 10, were marked by an intensification of raids and missile fire in more than one direction. Israeli aviation thus continued its intensive raids on the night of March 10 against the nerve centers and infrastructure of the Iranian regime in Tehran, and against the southern suburbs of Beirut and several villages in South Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley. Missiles were also launched against positions of the Kurdish Iranian opposition in Iraq, while the US-Israeli coalition air force launched raids against the offices of the pro-Iranian Iraqi militia, “El Hashed al-Shaabi” (“Popular Mobilization”), and Iraqi Hezbollah, stationed in Iraq. Several missile alerts were also reported on Wednesday in Dubai and Doha, notably. On Tuesday night, the Israeli navy targeted an apartment in the Aïcha Bakkar neighborhood of West Beirut. The IDF stated that a leader and an office of the Sunni fundamentalist organization “El Jamaa el Islamiya” were targeted by the strike, which reportedly killed four people. Further south, about forty Israeli armored vehicles reportedly took up positions in the southern region, particularly near Taybeh, which could be a precursor to a prolonged Israeli army presence in the South to impose a “buffer zone” aimed at reducing the threat to northern Israeli villages. In this regard, the Israeli General Staff reportedly sent reinforcements to the border with Lebanon, including a significant commando unit. Diplomatic pressures Faced with the resurgence of tension on the ground, Lebanon is subject to increased diplomatic pressures. The French ambassador to the UN thus read a statement, in the presence of the ambassadors of the European Union, calling Hezbollah's entry into war against Israel “irresponsible.” The French ambassador added that the pro-Iranian party must “cease its attacks against Israel and hand over its weapons to the Lebanese government.” In the same vein, the president of the French Senate, Gérard Larcher (a great friend of Lebanon for many years), emphasized that France must help the Lebanese government disarm Hezbollah, which “does not defend Lebanon, but serves Iran's interests,” he noted. For her part, the Assistant Secretary-General of the United Nations for Political Affairs criticized, during a Security Council meeting (Wednesday afternoon) dedicated to Lebanon, Hezbollah's attitude, noting that this party “refused to cooperate with the Lebanese government to restore the state's sovereignty and implement the decision on the monopoly of arms.” As for Israel's ambassador to the UN, he presented Lebanon with a choice that leaves no room for hesitation. “The Lebanese government,” he declared, “is faced with the following alternative: either it dismantles Hezbollah's military apparatus, or we will do it ourselves”… What about the Strait of Hormuz and Mojtaba Khamenei In parallel with this tension on the now traditional “fronts,” a new flashpoint has emerged in recent days: the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards do not hide their desire to close this strategic maritime passage, even threatening to mine it. President Donald Trump was quick to react to these threats, unequivocally stating that any attempt to mine this strait would lead to a particularly firm response from the American army. In this context, the US Navy continued the systematic destruction of the Iranian military fleet, and sixteen mine-laying vessels were sunk. At the political, or global geostrategic, level, the attention of regional and international powers is currently focused on the configuration of the new political power in Tehran after the designation of a new Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Ali Khamenei, who was killed during the first Israeli air raids in Tehran on February 28. It is confirmed by various converging sources that Mojtaba Khamenei was injured during the first raids on February 28. Contradictory information is circulating in the media regarding the severity of his injuries and his health status. The new Leader would have been practically imposed by the Revolutionary Guards (the Pasdaran), which could reflect a hardening of the mullahs' regime towards the West, and particularly the United States. In any event, it will be necessary to wait for Mojtaba Khamenei to publicly state his major political and strategic choices to determine the course that events might take, both concerning the outcome of the war and the future of Iran and the entire region.

As the Israeli-American offensive against Iran enters its tenth day–an assault that has set the entire region ablaze, Lebanon included–tensions continue to mount. While US and Israeli authorities are raising the tone, the pillars of the Iranian regime, currently fighting for their survival, have responded with heightened virulence, appearing to find a second wind following the announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader. US President Donald Trump set the tone on Monday, claiming he believes the war is “very complete, pretty much.” In an interview with CBS, the president suggested that the conflict is moving “very far ahead” of its initial schedule. “It is we who will decide when the war ends,” the Revolutionary Guards shot back in a defiant statement. However, the Iranians have moved beyond mere bellicose rhetoric. Tehran has threatened to “block oil exports for the duration of the war”–a move that drew an immediate and characteristic response from Donald Trump. The US president warned that Washington would “hit twenty times harder” should Tehran act on its threat. Ali Larijani, the regime’s security chief, dismissed Trump’s warnings as “empty,” retorting that “Iran has no fear.” What lies beneath this acerbic exchange of rhetoric, particularly from the Iranian side? Very few details are filtering out regarding the situation on the ground in Iran, largely due to the relentless and violent Israeli-American air strikes targeting cities and critical infrastructure. In any event, a fresh statement on Tuesday from Donald Trump–who delights in blowing hot and cold–has served to muddy the waters. The US president claimed to have “heard that Tehran wanted to talk,” indicating his own readiness to do so. For his part, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remained steadfast, asserting that he was in the process of “breaking the bones” of the Iranian regime, while once again calling on the Iranian people to rise up in revolt. The Christians of the South In Lebanon, the war remains in full swing, with a relentless succession of evacuation orders issued by the Israeli military for entire swathes of the country. The Israeli Air Force continues to target Hezbollah’s financial backbone, Al-Qard al-Hassan, with numerous branches already reduced to rubble–the majority located in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Residents across seven neighborhoods in the sector have been ordered to evacuate “until further notice.” However, the last forty-eight hours have been marred by a series of bloody incidents in Christian border villages–areas that are demonstrably not Hezbollah strongholds. In Alma el-Shaab, Sami Ghafari, a man in his seventies, was targeted and killed by a drone on Sunday while tending to his land. His death has deeply unsettled observers. On Monday, the violence spread to Qlayaa, claiming the life of Father Pierre Raï. The priest was killed after Hezbollah fighters reportedly took cover behind an inhabited house to launch rockets toward Israel. The Israeli military released a video on Monday purporting to show the “infiltration of armed elements into a Christian village in South Lebanon”–specifically identifying them as members of Hezbollah. Were these strikes intended to terrorize the residents of these villages, who are determined to remain in their homes, or are they truly caught between the hammer of Israel and the anvil of Hezbollah? Regardless of the intent, the residents of Alma el-Shaab have now chosen to evacuate their village under the protection of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). Meanwhile, in Rmeish, inhabitants received direct calls from the Israeli military demanding the evacuation of displaced Shia civilians they had been sheltering, who have since been relocated to Tyre. Faced with the spiraling violence in Lebanon, France has expressed its “deep concern.” Paris has called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council in New York, which is set to take place tomorrow, Wednesday 11 March. First Public appearance of Mohammad Raad The day of 9 March–or more precisely, the evening–was also marked by a speech from the head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc, Mohammad Raad, in what was his first public appearance since rumors of his assassination by Israel in the early days of the conflict. Only hours after participating in a parliamentary session where he and his colleagues voted to extend their own mandates by two years, Mr. Raad took up the arguments of his party’s Secretary General, Naim Qassem. He launched an attack on the government for its 2 March decision to deem the militia’s military activities illegal, asserting that Lebanon “had no choice but resistance.” Such remarks pose yet another challenge to the government and to President Joseph Aoun, who only the day before had accused Hezbollah of driving Lebanon toward “collapse.” They also represent a fresh attempt to close ranks within a popular base that is becoming increasingly disillusioned. For his part, Joseph Aoun visited the Ministry of Defense on Tuesday to defend the army. The military’s Commander-in-Chief, General Rodolphe Haykal, has become an increasing target of attacks since Hezbollah once again dragged Lebanon into an “absurd war” and the military was tasked with implementing the government's decision to ban the group's destructive paramilitary activities. The President made it clear that Haykal “would not be dismissed,” sharply criticizing the growing calls for his departure.

This tenth day of the American-Israeli offensive against the Iranian mullahs' regime was marked by three highlights: the strong stance adopted by President Joseph Aoun, who severely condemned the behavior of Hezbollah, and furthermore declared himself in favor of direct negotiations with Israel under international supervision; the intense Israeli aerial bombardments against the southern suburbs of Beirut, specifically against the offices of Qard el-Hassan (Hezbollah's illegal financial structure); and the Parliament's vote to extend the mandate of deputies for a period of two years. This vote, which passed with a slim majority of 76 votes, is explained by the State's inability to organize the legislative elections that were supposed to take place in two months, next May. At the current stage, no one can predict the duration of the armed conflict initiated by Hezbollah on the local scene, especially since this new war, which is once again shaking Lebanon, is entirely dependent on the overall regional context. President Joseph Aoun moreover emphasized this precise point in a statement released publicly on Monday, March 9, in the mid-afternoon. In a clear allusion to Hezbollah, the head of state broke his silence and was particularly critical of the pro-Iranian party, declaring that « those who launched rockets (against Israel, on March 2) did so based on Iranian calculations ». The head of state declared himself in favor of direct negotiations with Israel « under international supervision » in this context. It is the first time since his election to the State's highest office that President Aoun has so openly advocated for direct negotiations with Israel. Addressing the leaders of the European Union via Zoom, at the initiative of the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission, President Aoun unleashed his anger against Hezbollah, strongly condemning the behavior of this party, which resulted in the reopening of the South Lebanon front, on the night of March 1 st to 2 March: « Those who launched the rockets wanted to drag Lebanon into chaos (…). The country is caught between two fires, between an aggression that in no way respects international laws and humanitarian law, on the one hand, and an armed faction that stands apart from the State and in no way takes into account the interest of Lebanon and its people, on the other hand ». Emphasizing that the firing of six rockets against Israel by Hezbollah, on the night of March 1 st to 2 March, had absolutely no impact on the course of the current war in the region and was only intended to provoke an Israeli intervention to then claim that only the Hezbollah militia is capable of defending the country, President Aoun clearly declared himself in favor of holding direct negotiations with Israel to get the country out of the crisis. This forceful position by the head of state comes as, on the regional level, the Iranian conflict is at a crucial turning point following the official announcement, on Sunday evening, March 8, in Tehran, of the appointment of the new Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the person of Mojtaba Khamenei, who thus succeeds his father, Ali Khamenei, killed during the first Israeli air raids in Tehran on February 28. The new Leader is known for his close ties with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. His designation was perceived by many observers as a sign of further hardening in the Iranian position. President Donald Trump moreover emphasized late Monday evening that he was hostile to the appointment of this new Leader…

The night of Friday, March 6 to Saturday, March 7, was marked by an Israeli helicopter-borne intrusion into a village in the Beqaa Valley, the apparent objective of which was to search for the remains of Ron Arad, an Israeli airman who disappeared in 1986 after his plane was shot down. The inhabitants of several Lebanese regions, notably Mount Lebanon, heard the incessant noise of Israeli low-altitude aviation throughout the night from Friday to Saturday. The operation itself took place in a village in Baalbeck in the northern Beqaa, Nabi Chit, which was the scene of a commando unit's operation. In the middle of the night, the presence of soldiers on the ground attracted the attention of Hezbollah members and local residents. A confrontation therefore took place, resulting in a particularly heavy toll on the Lebanese side, with no less than 41 dead and as many injured (according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health) and a scene of total devastation in the village, as shown by videos circulated on Saturday morning. Indeed, to evacuate its soldiers, Israeli aviation heavily bombed the locality. While Hezbollah reported this confrontation in one of its communiqués, claiming to have «repelled» an incursion, the explanation came from the Israeli army a little later: it seems that information provided by a Hezbollah member held prisoner by Tel Aviv put the Israelis on the trail of clues regarding the fate of the pilot who disappeared in Lebanon in 1986, Ron Arad. According to a message from the Arabic-speaking spokesperson for the Israeli army, Avichay Adraee, Ron Arad's remains were not found on the site. Mr. Adraee specified that the operation did not result in any casualties among the military personnel involved. Is the search for the remains of a man missing for 40 years, however important it may be, sufficient to explain this dangerous operation, or could there be a more rational justification that has not yet been revealed? The most serious aspect of the matter is the involvement of the Lebanese army in the incident, as three of its soldiers are among the dead. The army specified in a communiqué that its patrols had spotted unusual movement of Israeli helicopters even as violent bombings continued in the surrounding villages. However, according to the text, the exchanges of fire mainly took place with the «inhabitants» of the region. Blue Helmets injured The other important news of the last 24 hours is the targeting of a UNIFIL position on the Lebanese-Israeli border, which resulted in injuries among Ghanaian peacekeepers. The UN reacted strongly, warning against overflows in South Lebanon. Furthermore, Israeli bombings, preceded – or not – by warnings on social media, continue almost incessantly on the southern suburbs of Beirut, and on the regions of South Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley. And evacuation orders continue on both sides: the latest launched by the Israelis once again concerned the entire area south of the Litani, and particularly that of Tyre. The city was later targeted by a devastating bombardment. Hezbollah retaliated by calling on residents of the Nahariya and Kiryat Shmona settlements (a few kilometers from the border with Lebanon) to evacuate the area. The launching of rockets, missiles, or drones by Hezbollah has not ceased, attracting increasingly violent reprisals on Lebanese regions. This is despite the Lebanese government's decisions to consider these activities «illegal»: in this regard, sources from Justice Minister Adel Nassar indicate that he is «studying» the possibility of initiating legal proceedings against Hezbollah's Secretary General Naim Qassem. To be continued. As he does almost daily, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz issued threats against Lebanon, this time directly naming the Lebanese government and urging it to disarm Hezbollah «not to pay a very heavy price.» For her part, the UN representative in Lebanon, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, called for direct talks between Lebanon and Israel, at a time when the sound of boots far outweighs the voices of diplomacy. A discourse and its opposite From Iran's side, the most significant event in recent hours was the almost surreal speech by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, in which he «apologized» to neighboring countries for the strikes against their territory. He also announced a «suspension» of these strikes, «unless an attack is launched from these countries.» As if to contradict his statements, Iranian attacks against Gulf countries have been particularly virulent in recent hours. Notably, missiles directly targeted Dubai airport, leading to the suspension of flights to and from that airport. No fewer than ten drones were also launched towards Qatar almost simultaneously. And Bahrain says it intercepted dozens of missiles and drones. The Revolutionary Guard, for their part, claimed responsibility for attacks against Iraqi Kurdistan. On this front, it should be noted that American and Israeli aviation bombed positions of the mullahs' regime on the Iraqi-Iranian border on Saturday. This bombing comes as there is increasing talk of a ground offensive, towards Iran, by Iranian Kurdish opponents stationed in Iraq. In any case, President Pezeshkian's «apologies» to the Gulf countries and his commitment that missile launches against these countries would not recur were contradicted by new missile launches on Saturday morning against Qatar, Bahrain, and Dubai, where the airport was targeted, temporarily interrupting air traffic. Is the apparent contradiction between Pezeshkian's statements and the reality on the ground a tactic or an indication of a real schism beginning to appear within the regime, already severely shaken by the American-Israeli offensive? Nevertheless, Iran continues to be violently pounded for the eighth consecutive day. Israel announced that it had carried out an offensive with 80 fighter jets that disabled various airports. And US President Donald Trump, as if responding to the Iranian president who assured that his country «would never surrender,» threatened Iran with an intensification of strikes, promising for Saturday «a very harsh strike» on «areas and groups never before targeted.» Hot hours ahead.

The Lebanese government undertook intensive diplomatic activity on Friday, March 6, in an attempt to put an end to the rampant degradation shaking the country, following the reopening of the South Lebanon front by Hezbollah, on the night of the 1 st to March 2, disregarding all warnings addressed to Lebanon on this plan in recent weeks. Faced with this new suicidal adventure by the formation allied with the Pasdaran, the paramilitary and security activities of the pro-Iranian party were banned on Monday by the government of Nawaf Salam. But Hezbollah remains completely deaf to official injunctions and remains deeply engaged, under instruction from the Islamic Republic of Iran, in a regional war to which Lebanon is completely foreign. The outcome of the standoff between the state and Hezbollah will be decisive for the fate of a Lebanon that has been living, since Thursday, under the threat of an intensification of raids carried out by Tel Aviv against several regions of the country, in retaliation for the pro-Iranian group's attacks against northern Israel. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, who received Western and Arab ambassadors accredited to Beirut on Friday morning, reaffirmed his government's determination to hold the decision of war and peace and to implement its decision to impose a monopoly on weapons. He outlined the official measures taken for this purpose and asked them to request their respective governments to intervene with Israel to spare civilian infrastructure in particular, insisting that Lebanon was drawn into this war against its will. While tens of thousands of displaced people from South Lebanon and the southern suburbs of the capital remain homeless, after being ordered by Israel on Thursday to evacuate the areas where they live, Nawaf Salam warned his interlocutors of the seriousness of «the humanitarian catastrophe» looming on the horizon. At the same time, Lebanese Foreign Minister Joe Raggi undertook intensive diplomatic contacts to try to curb a potential large-scale Israeli offensive. Meanwhile, an unofficial Hezbollah spokesman, Jaafari Mufti Ahmad Kabalan, implicitly criticized the state for «its defeatism», calling on it to «assume its national responsibilities» in the face of the war with Israel. A French project In this context, the pan-Arab channel Al-Hadath reported on Friday morning information according to which France transmitted to Lebanon a definitive solution project based on the following points: Hezbollah's announcement that it ceases combat and lays down its arms; deployment of the army in the southern suburbs and in Hezbollah strongholds in the South and in the Bekaa to seize the formation's weapons within a maximum of two weeks; the weapon collection operation would be carried out under the supervision of the United States; the Lebanese state would officially announce that it is prepared to enter into peace negotiations with Israel. According to the pan-Arab channel, Tel Aviv has given the Lebanese authorities until the end of the week to respond to this solution project, failing which attacks against Hezbollah would be intensified. However, sources from the pro-Iranian formation, quoted by Al-Hadath channel, affirm that Hezbollah «will react to any descent of the Lebanese army into its arms caches, as if it were an Israeli attack». Israeli pressure remains strong On the Israeli side, military pressure remains strong. Israeli air forces, which carried out a series of violent raids against the southern suburbs and several regions of the Bekaa and the south of the country on Thursday night to Friday, targeted the predominantly Sunni city of Saida and the Dahr el-Baydar international highway on Friday. These strikes killed four people in Saida, where Hamas leaders were targeted. Hezbollah had previously launched several rocket barrages against northern Israel. Faced with this scenario, will official Lebanon succeed in withdrawing the country from a catastrophe made inevitable by Hezbollah's excessive vassalage to Tehran? The outcome of the race against time in which the authorities are engaged remains uncertain. Through its Defense Minister, Tel Aviv announced that it would continue its military operation in Lebanon «until the battle with Hezbollah is decided». In other words, until Iran is brought to its knees. According to Israeli media, citing army officers, Tel Aviv has noted a decrease in the frequency of ballistic missile launches against Israeli territory. «That's a good thing, but we shouldn't be satisfied with it. A lot of work remains to be done,» an Israeli security official was quoted as saying by Kan. US President Donald Trump also expressed satisfaction with the progress of the military offensive against Iran, believing it was going «better than initially planned. According to him, the operation should still last «a few weeks», despite internal opposition in the United States to the war against Iran. However, the majority in the Senate and House of Representatives remains favorable to this war, as shown by Thursday's vote. The US House of Representatives thus rejected a draft resolution aimed at limiting President Trump's powers and preventing him from continuing the war against Iran without congressional approval.

The Council of Ministers, meeting on Thursday at the Grand Serail, adopted several measures aimed at preventing any activity and presence of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Lebanon, in what is perceived as a real hunt for Pasdaran in the country. The government has asked the relevant ministries (Defense and Interior), as well as municipalities and various security services, to take all necessary measures to prevent any military and security activity of the Revolutionary Guards on Lebanese territory. The concerned authorities have been tasked with detecting the presence of Pasdaran in the country, arresting them, and expelling them. Furthermore, upon a proposal from the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Joe Raggi, the government decided to require an entry visa for all Iranian nationals wishing to travel to Lebanon. It should be noted that at the beginning of the Council of Ministers meeting, the head of government sharply stigmatized those who “committed the sin of dragging Lebanon into adventures that we all could have well done without.” Mr. Salam deplored the attitude of those who acted in this way “disregarding the catastrophic consequences of their behavior on the country, to serve foreign interests contrary to the interest of Lebanon.” On another note, the streets and entrances of Beirut were the scene on Thursday afternoon of a widespread panic and traffic jam after the Israeli army’s call to evacuate several neighborhoods in the southern suburbs without delay. Tens of thousands of residents left their homes in a hurry, most not knowing where to go. This massive exodus caused inextricable traffic jams in the capital’s streets. It should be recalled that the Israeli army also requested on Wednesday the evacuation of the entire southern region located south of the Litani. According to various sources, the Israeli army intends to simply raze several neighborhoods in the southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold. The Israeli Minister of Finance declared unequivocally on Thursday that Beirut’s southern suburbs would suffer the same fate as Khan Younis in Gaza, i.e., total destruction. In this context, it should be noted that President Joseph Aoun contacted President Emmanuel Macron to ask him to intervene with the Israeli government to spare the southern suburbs. In this context, it should be recalled that in recent months the Trump Administration had repeatedly urged the Lebanese authorities to implement without delay the content of Security Council Resolution 1701 as well as the provisions of the November 2024 ceasefire agreement concerning the handover of Hezbollah's military arsenal to the Lebanese army. Failing that, US leaders stressed, the Israeli army would disarm the pro-Iranian militia. US efforts on this front, however, remained a dead letter. At the same time, the Trump Administration had warned in recent weeks against any attempt by Hezbollah to drag Lebanon into a new warlike adventure, in the wake of the conflict with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Washington had repeatedly warned the authorities that Hezbollah's involvement in the conflict with Iran would have disastrous and dramatic consequences for Lebanon. Here too, US warnings remained a dead letter… Joumblatt speaks out against “the madness of certain parties in Lebanon” In this context, it should be noted that after a meeting on Thursday evening with President Joseph Aoun, the leader of the Progressive Socialist Party, MP Taymour Joumblatt, declared that “the inhabitants of the South are paying the price for the madness of certain parties in Lebanon and abroad.” Mr. Joumblatt emphasized in this regard that the decision of war and peace should be in the hands of the central state.

The American-Israeli offensive launched on February 28 against the Iranian mullahs' regime, as well as the subsequent reopening of the South Lebanon front by Hezbollah, on the night of March 1 st to March 2, have taken a new turn over the past forty-eight hours. As aerial raids against Hezbollah positions continue, particularly in the southern suburbs of Beirut and in several villages in the southern region of the country, the Israeli air force is escalating targeted raids aimed at eliminating senior leaders of the pro-Iranian faction and fundamentalist Palestinian organizations. On Wednesday, March 4, and during the day on Thursday, March 5, raids were carried out in Aramoun, Saadiyate, Bchemoun, Choueifat, Saida, Hazmieh, on the road to Beirut airport (where two Hezbollah leaders were assassinated), Zahle and in the Palestinian camp of Baddawi, in North Lebanon, where a senior Hamas official was killed. In each of these localities, the leaders were killed by a missile strike either at their homes or while they were traveling by car. In parallel, the Arabic-speaking spokesperson for the Israeli army reiterated his call to all residents south of the Litani to evacuate their villages and move north of the river. He issued a similar appeal to the residents of the southern suburbs, asking them to withdraw to Tripoli or certain mountain areas. According to one of the Israeli television channels, the IDF intends to bomb and destroy "dozens of buildings in the southern suburbs." The Iranian Front Regarding military operations in Iran, missiles were launched on Thursday morning against Doha (Qatar), Manama (Bahrain), and Iraqi Kurdistan where the headquarters of Iranian Kurdish forces opposed to the mullahs' regime was targeted. It should be noted in this regard that, according to American officials cited by Fox News and the Axios website, Iranian Kurdish opposition forces stationed in Iraq launched a ground offensive towards Iranian territory earlier this week, with the support, these same sources affirm, of American and Israeli Services. The White House, however, denied wanting to provide aid to Iranian Kurdish opponents stationed in Iraq. The Pasdaran, for their part, indicated in this context that they had opened fire against "secessionist elements" who were trying to cross the border with Iraq. In addition to this tension on the Iran-Iraq border, a serious development occurred on Thursday morning. The Pasdaran launched two missiles towards an airport in Azerbaijan where, moreover, troop concentrations had been reported on the border with Iran, according to some information. Earlier in the week, it is recalled, the Revolutionary Guards had launched missiles towards Cyprus, against a British base, and towards Turkey where NATO's anti-aircraft defense intercepted the missile. It therefore appears evident that the Pasdaran are increasingly striving to extend the conflict to new countries and new geographical areas, the objective for the Islamic Republic being to increase the internationalization of the conflict in order to escalate it as much as possible in an attempt to stop the American-Israeli offensive. Faced with the firepower and extent of the American-Israeli offensive, the mullahs' regime, undoubtedly panicked, is opting for a reckless escalation and the extension of the conflict to increasingly broader geographical areas in order to break its confrontation with the United States and Israel. However, such a strategy is turning against Tehran and only increasing its isolation, as illustrated by the international positions recorded in the last twenty-four hours. The Secretary General of NATO thus declared that the overwhelming majority of Atlantic alliance countries support President Donald Trump's position regarding the Iranian conflict. In the same vein, the European Commission condemned the behavior of the Iranian regime, emphasizing that the Islamic Republic's conduct constitutes a threat to stability in the Middle East and security in Europe. In this context, President Emmanuel Macron indicated on Thursday that he had proposed to Italy and Greece to send troops to Cyprus to strengthen the island's defense capabilities. France, in this regard, decided to authorize American planes access to its military bases in the Middle East. Great Britain had also opened its bases earlier in the week to US aviation. For his part, the Canadian Prime Minister declared on Thursday that he did not rule out his country's participation in the war against the Iranian regime. As for Australia, it announced the sending of "military potential" to the region. Finally, it should be noted that the US Senate rejected a resolution presented by Democratic elected officials aimed at limiting President Trump's freedom of action in Iran.