Today's Essential

Once again, public opinion and the populations of the Levant, and the Middle East in general, are confronted with a cascade of contradictory statements and indiscretions leaked to the media, concerning the evolution of the war launched on February 28 in the region. President Donald Trump thus reaffirmed this Wednesday, April 1 st , the existence in Tehran of a «new regime», indicating that the «president of this new power has just asked us for a ceasefire». « We will decide on the expediency of this ceasefire when the Strait of Hormuz is reopened to free maritime circulation, President Trump declared. Otherwise, we will continue to bomb the infrastructure in order to bring Iran back to the Stone Age ».

Two strategically significant regions took center stage in overnight military operations from Monday, March 30, to Tuesday, March 31, amid the ongoing Middle East conflict that began on February 28: Isfahan in Iran and West Bekaa in Lebanon. In the overnight hours of Monday, U.S. air forces carried out particularly intense raids on Isfahan, targeting major weapons and ammunition depots belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. U.S. sources reported Tuesday morning that large bunker-busting bombs, each weighing over a ton, were used to destroy deep underground weapons caches. Video footage released Tuesday morning, following a night of devastation in the Isfahan region, captures scenes of apocalyptic explosions and towering columns of dense flames rising from the sites struck by American aircraft.

We are witnessing a new kind of war, one that has pitted the American and Israeli armies against the Islamic Republic of Iran since February 28. To reduce it to its barest outline, we might say that what confronts us is a conflict that blends, in the popular idiom, “the stick and the carrot” in so entangled a fashion that it becomes difficult to read between the lines and discern the share and degree of truth, of manoeuvre, of outright falsehood, or of deliberate concealment on the part of each belligerent. Monday, March 30, 2026, illustrated this complexity in all its dimensions. President Donald Trump returned to the subject in an interview with the New York Post , noting the presence in Tehran of a “new regime that is proving Cartesian and rational” in its conduct, one that is “more flexible than the leaders who were eliminated” at the outset of the war.

It would be stating the obvious to point out that the post-war Middle East and Iran will not be the same as before February 28, the date of the launch of the American-Israeli offensive against the Iranian mullah regime. This war is entering its second month this Saturday, March 28, without us being able to perceive, at the current stage, the light at the end of the tunnel. One thing, for now, is certain: contacts and message exchanges have been initiated between the United States and the Islamic Republic thanks to the mediation of Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt. A meeting between the two parties could be held next week, but it remains uncertain due to the Iranians' request that it be preceded by a global ceasefire, which President Donald Trump reportedly refused.

The war in the Middle East, triggered on February 28 by an Israeli-American attack against the Iranian Mullahs' regime, seems to be settling in for the long haul, and as a result, the fate of potential negotiations between Iran and the United States remains unknown. Following a verbal escalation by the Iranians, who stated their refusal of the fifteen-point plan proposed this week by Washington, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul contradicted the official statements. He told the German press on Friday that the United States and Iran are preparing for direct talks in Pakistan. In parallel, US President Donald Trump extended his ultimatum (threatening to destroy Iran's energy facilities) until April 6, seemingly to give a chance to the ongoing negotiations.

Less than 24 hours before the expiration of the deadline given by US President Donald Trump to Tehran to respond to the 15 points of an American plan to end the ongoing war, diplomatic contacts aimed at fostering the start of a dialogue are intensifying, while the dynamic on the ground remains one of increasing pressure: violent Israeli-American strikes against Iranian military targets continue, while Tehran continues to target civilian and military infrastructure in Israel and the Gulf countries. More than ever today, the risk of a total large-scale regional conflagration seems high if Tehran continues its prevarications regarding its nuclear and ballistic program or its «sponsorship» of militias that destabilize countries like Lebanon, Iraq, or Yemen, or even Gulf countries where terrorist cells, notably linked to Hezbollah, are regularly dismantled.

The past 24 hours in a Middle East at war offer a stark illustration of the uneasy coexistence between intensifying fighting and persistent reports of backchannel negotiations between the United States and Iran. Even as Israeli and US strikes on Iranian military and civilian infrastructure continue unabated – and as thousands of Marines are set to be deployed to the region in the coming days – reports in credible media outlets of a 15-point list of demands set by Washington as a basis for talks with Tehran have dominated headlines since Tuesday evening, with Pakistani, Turkish and other mediation efforts reportedly under way. Strikes on the Islamic Republic’s energy infrastructure, as threatened by US President Donald Trump on Sunday, appear for now to have been delayed.

Following the official ban on the military activities of Hezbollah and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards in Lebanon, the decision to expel Iran’s ambassador to Beirut and recall the head of Lebanon’s diplomatic mission in Tehran undoubtedly marks the most consequential step taken by Nawaf Salam’s government since Hezbollah drew the country into the military confrontation opposing Iran to Israel and the United States. And for good reason: for the first time since Taif (1989), the Lebanese authorities are setting clear limits and seeking to shield the country from foreign interference in its internal affairs – interference that has often proved damaging, even devastating.

Political circles around the world, and more particularly international markets, lived this Monday, March 23, in anguish over military developments that risked occurring upon the expiration, in the evening, of the ultimatum launched by President Donald Trump to the Iranian regime, enjoining it to ensure free maritime navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, failing which he would order the bombing of power plants and energy infrastructure in Iran. In response, Tehran threatened to attack energy and vital facilities, particularly seawater desalination plants, in several Gulf countries. Monday thus began in a particularly tense climate until the White House chief suddenly revealed in the early afternoon (Beirut time) that discussions had been engaged over the weekend with “the Iranian State,” he specified without any reference to the Islamic Republic, in order to reach an “agreement,” the outlines of which he did not indicate. He merely pointed out in this context that he had postponed the bombing of electrical and energy facilities for “five days,” allowing time for the talks engaged with the Iranian regime to unfold.

Three major developments, undeniably strategic in dimension, have marked the last twenty-four hours of the war between the American-Israeli alliance and the Republic of the Mullahs in Tehran. Iran thus launched for the first time two intermediate-range ballistic missiles towards the American-British base of Diego Garcia, located in the Indian Ocean, some 4000 kilometers from Iran. The two missiles did not reach their target, but the importance of this launch lies in its geopolitical significance. The range of Iranian missiles was generally estimated at 2000 kilometers. The fact that these two ballistic devices had a range of nearly 4000 kilometers constitutes tangible proof that the Islamic Republic was genuinely working to acquire a missile arsenal potentially capable of reaching European capitals, including Paris and London, located respectively 4200 and 4400 kilometers from Tehran.