The Delay of Trump's Ultimatum Has a Limited Impact

The war in the Middle East, triggered on February 28 by an Israeli-American attack against the Iranian Mullahs' regime, seems to be settling in for the long haul, and as a result, the fate of potential negotiations between Iran and the United States remains unknown.

Following a verbal escalation by the Iranians, who stated their refusal of the fifteen-point plan proposed this week by Washington, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul contradicted the official statements. He told the German press on Friday that the United States and Iran are preparing for direct talks in Pakistan. In parallel, US President Donald Trump extended his ultimatum (threatening to destroy Iran's energy facilities) until April 6, seemingly to give a chance to the ongoing negotiations.

Although this initiative gives the impression of a lull, the situation on the ground is quite different, and the war is intensifying on all fronts. According to the American media outlet Axios, the US army is preparing a vast operation that would consist of invading strategic Iranian islands. At least 10,000 additional American soldiers are expected in the region in the coming days, according to American media.

On the Israeli side, the language of threats dominates. Defense Minister Israel Katz promised an intensification of strikes against Iranian territory. Attacks against Iranian territory have not ceased, even as Iranian missiles continue to fall on Israel, particularly Tel Aviv, causing injuries.

Iranians themselves seem to be hardening their position. AFP quotes the “Soufan Center,” a specialized institute based in New York, which believes that “the assassinations of high-ranking officials have not only allowed radicals to remain in power, but they have also marginalized the political leadership and placed the Revolutionary Guard Corps at the center of the game.” This analysis would explain the hardening of certain positions currently expressed by Tehran.

In practice, the Revolutionary Guards are now threatening to target hotels in Gulf countries and elsewhere, where Americans would be present. They also announced that the Strait of Hormuz is practically closed, having forced three container ships to turn back. Even Chinese container ships, despite belonging to an ally, had to turn back. The closure of Hormuz would be joined by that of the Bab el-Mandab Strait, which connects Asia to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, if another ally of the Iranian regime, the Yemeni Houthis, decide to enter the scene as they have claimed in recent days.

In this context, the global economic repercussions of this war are becoming increasingly clear. The price of a barrel of oil has surpassed 110 dollars, and it continues to rise despite the postponement of Donald Trump's ultimatum.

The economic consequences are at the center of the G7 foreign ministers' meeting in France on Friday, with the presence of US Minister Marco Rubio. He is expected to be questioned by his counterparts about war plans, while he himself, according to his own statements to the journalists accompanying him, is expected to ask them once again to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In this context, Mr. Rubio reportedly informed his peers that the Iranian war would continue for “a few more weeks,” further specifying, during a meeting with journalists, that “Russia is not in any way hindering our action in Iran.”

Israeli advances in South Lebanon

On the Lebanese front, fighting continues to rage in South Lebanon on several fronts, particularly those of Marjayoun and Bint Jbeil. Information from various sources reports an advance of Israeli troops on the ground and massive destruction in border villages. The Israeli army even posted a video on its X account showing the flushing out of Hezbollah arms caches in the village of Khiam, in a school, with the intention of showing that the militants are hiding among civilians.

The Khiam tunnel

The Israeli army also released a video showing a large tunnel that the pro-Iranian militia had built and developed in the immediate vicinity of the local church. The dissemination of these videos illustrates that the IDF now completely controls the town of Khiam.

In this tense atmosphere, a statement by an Israeli army spokesperson, Effie Defrin, intervenes: he assured on Friday that Israeli troops are “in more advanced positions in South Lebanon,” and that Israel was committed to disarming Hezbollah if the Lebanese government did not do so.

Hezbollah plays the same media game, posting videos, notably of Merkava tanks being targeted in South Lebanon. The party also intensified its strikes against Israeli territory overnight from Thursday to Friday, reaching a new record for missile launches since the beginning of this new conflict.

Israeli advances in South Lebanon are beginning to raise fears of an annexation of Lebanese territories. A risk against which Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam alerted UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Thursday, based on explicit threats made by Israeli officials.

On the other hand, the humanitarian catastrophe in Lebanon is taking on gigantic proportions: according to the Ministry of Health, the number of deaths has exceeded 1100 and the injured 3200. The UNICEF office in Lebanon has just published a damning report in which the UN organization indicates that approximately 20% of the Lebanese population is currently displaced, that more than 370,000 children are among them, and that 121 children have been killed and nearly 400 injured since the start of the war. UN Women, for its part, specifies that a quarter of women and girls have had to flee their homes.