Sketch of The New Post-War Regional Political Landscape

It would be stating the obvious to point out that the post-war Middle East and Iran will not be the same as before February 28, the date of the launch of the American-Israeli offensive against the Iranian mullah regime. This war is entering its second month this Saturday, March 28, without us being able to perceive, at the current stage, the light at the end of the tunnel.

One thing, for now, is certain: contacts and message exchanges have been initiated between the United States and the Islamic Republic thanks to the mediation of Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt. A meeting between the two parties could be held next week, but it remains uncertain due to the Iranians' request that it be preceded by a global ceasefire, which President Donald Trump reportedly refused.

The Iranian regime also reportedly demanded a seven-day deadline to elaborate its official response to the 15-point plan presented by Washington. This seven-day period would be necessary to consult the different centers of Iranian power, which reflects the complete vagueness that continues to surround the real situation of the current power in Tehran.

In any case, the current negotiations are taking place 'in the heat of the moment,' in the sense that American and Israeli air forces are intensifying their raids against military infrastructures and strategic centers throughout Iran, while at the same time the United States is dispatching reinforcements, including the aircraft carrier George Bush as well as no less than 8,000 Marines and paratroopers, to the combat zone.

As military operations thus continue apace, President Donald Trump had an informal discussion with journalists late Friday evening (Beirut time) during which he practically outlined the new political landscape that could emerge after the end of the war.

The White House chief paid a vibrant tribute to the Gulf countries, with a special mention for the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, and the monarchs of the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Qatar. "They showed greater courage than NATO leaders," President Trump declared, not hiding his bitterness about the position of certain European countries.

The US President indicated in this context that Washington has always provided sustained support to NATO, to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars, and when the USA engaged in the war against the Islamic Republic, the member countries of the Atlantic Alliance remained passive.

Addressing these countries, Mr. Trump declared: "Given your attitude, we are no longer obliged to stand by your side." This short sentence, added to the strong tribute paid to the Gulf States, seems to indicate that a dual US positioning could emerge during the post-war period: a cooling in relations with European countries and a crisis within NATO, on the one hand, and a significant strengthening of relations with the Gulf, with large concomitant investments in a context of peace revival in the Middle East, on the other hand.

Military operations

It remains that at the current stage, weapons speak, and on this front, Americans and Israelis seem to be working overtime to maximally destroy the military, nuclear, and ballistic infrastructure of the Islamic Republic.

On Friday night, President Trump revealed that the American army had just dealt a "great blow" to Iran and that, as a result, "we have never been so close to a situation allowing the liberation of the Middle East from Iranian threats (...) and Iranian nuclear blackmail." He specified in this regard that the "military database" of the Israeli-US offensive still contains 3,550 targets.

And he added: "Our armed forces annihilated Iranian nuclear positions during a shock operation tonight, at midnight (Friday). We are therefore on the verge of liberating the Middle East from Iranian terrorism and blackmail."

The White House chief noted in this context that this war waged by the United States against the Iranian regime aims not only to "defend Israel but also the countries of the region."

In practice, American and Israeli air forces launched about fifteen raids on Friday night and Saturday morning targeting the Bushehr nuclear power plant, "whose situation is strongly deteriorating," a qualified Russian source affirmed on Saturday.

As a reminder, the Russian experts and technicians stationed at this plant were evacuated three days ago.

Meanwhile, no less than 50 Israeli planes carried out raids targeting Iranian nuclear facilities "in three regions," the IDF announced on Saturday.

Concurrently, the Israeli air force violently bombed numerous military and civilian industrial infrastructures in the Tehran region and other Iranian areas.

Other developments on Saturday: the Houthis, a pro-Iranian Yemeni militia, intervened on Saturday by launching two missiles towards Israel.

Meanwhile, Iranian missile fire on Saturday damaged radar installations at Kuwait Airport, as well as the port in Oman and an American military base in Saudi Arabia, where two American servicemen were injured.

Political sessions at the Lebanese Forces headquarters

In Lebanon, Israeli air forces continued on Friday night and Saturday to bomb the southern suburbs and several villages in the southern region.

One of these raids killed six high-ranking Iranian officials who were presented by Tehran as "diplomats," whereas their obituaries show photos of them in military attire of senior officers of the Revolutionary Guards.

On the political front, a major development marked Saturday: the holding of expanded political sessions at the Lebanese Forces headquarters, chaired by LF leader Samir Geagea, dedicated to the repercussions of the current armed conflict.

The communiqué issued at the end of these sessions calls for the formation of a special tribunal to judge those responsible for dragging Lebanon into the war against the will of the state and the overwhelming majority of Lebanese.

The communiqué also stresses that the state should demand compensation from Iran for the losses suffered during this war.