Between Trump’s “Gift” and Iranian Denials, Talks Shrouded in Uncertainty

The past 24 hours in a Middle East at war offer a stark illustration of the uneasy coexistence between intensifying fighting and persistent reports of backchannel negotiations between the United States and Iran. Even as Israeli and US strikes on Iranian military and civilian infrastructure continue unabated – and as thousands of Marines are set to be deployed to the region in the coming days – reports in credible media outlets of a 15-point list of demands set by Washington as a basis for talks with Tehran have dominated headlines since Tuesday evening, with Pakistani, Turkish and other mediation efforts reportedly under way. Strikes on the Islamic Republic’s energy infrastructure, as threatened by US President Donald Trump on Sunday, appear for now to have been delayed.

According to reports by outlets such as The New York Times and Israel’s Channel 12, the 15-point US proposal focuses primarily on the nuclear issue, calling for an end to uranium enrichment and the dismantling of nuclear facilities, as well as limits on ballistic missile production and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. One provision, concerning Lebanon and other countries in the region such as Iraq, calls for Iran to halt its support for “proxies” such as Hezbollah and the Hashed al-Shaabi – an Iran-backed Iraqi militia that has been the target of the intensified US strikes in recent days. While these measures represent the stick, the carrot is a promise to lift international sanctions – provided they can be reinstated in the event of non-compliance – along with development assistance.

In return, again according to media reports, Iran is said to have set its own conditions, including the lifting of sanctions, guarantees of a definitive end to the war, control over the Strait of Hormuz, the preservation of its missile program, and compensation for war damage. Notably, there is no mention of Iran’s nuclear program, and the only ally referenced is Lebanon’s Hezbollah, for which Iranian negotiators are reportedly seeking a halt to Israeli strikes.

“Excessive” Conditions

Beyond these media leaks, public statements suggest a degree of American “exuberance,” as reflected in remarks made Tuesday evening by the US president, who spoke of a “very big gift” the Iranians had allegedly offered, without specifying its nature. He also insisted that Iran was seeking a deal at any cost. However, these early hopes of negotiations were quickly dampened by comments from an “official Iranian source,” who told state television on Wednesday afternoon that the US conditions were “excessive,” that Iran “would not allow Trump to dictate the end of the war,” and that Tehran would continue to fight.

Is this a firm rejection or a bid to raise the stakes ahead of potential negotiations? The fate of this initiative should become clearer by the end of the week – a deadline set by Trump himself.

The Heated Home Front

Meanwhile, in Lebanon, tensions remain at a peak, both on the southern front and in the political arena. Clashes and exchanges of fire continue south of the Litani River between the Israeli army and Hezbollah, which has launched hundreds of drones and rockets against Israeli forces in both Lebanese and Israeli territory. While Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has claimed to have approved a new plan to expand operations in Lebanon, these statements are being translated into action on the ground: the main development on the morning of Wednesday, March 25, was the advance of Israeli forces toward the Christian village of Debl in the Bint Jbeil district.

Although Hezbollah fighters are battling on a front they themselves opened, they can increasingly count less on internal solidarity within Lebanon. The dispute over the order to expel Iran’s ambassador from Lebanon, issued by the government, continues to escalate, particularly among the Shiite parties Amal and Hezbollah. After a scathing statement from Hezbollah the day before, Amal issued its own communique on Wednesday, calling on “officials to reverse the order to expel the ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Iran, in order to prevent a political and national crisis in the country.”

This decision stems from suspicions of interference in the internal affairs of Ambassador Mohammad Reza Shibani, who has yet to present his credentials to President Joseph Aoun. The move echoes reports that members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are present in significant numbers in Lebanon, using false passports to directly oversee Hezbollah, which has been without its historic commanders since 2024. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam cited these details in a recent interview.

Although welcomed by many voices in Lebanon and abroad, the measure risks destabilizing the government, which is scheduled to meet on Thursday at 3 p.m. at the Grand Serail (under the Prime minister’s chairmanship, rather than that of President Aoun). Environment Minister Tamara Zein set the tone Tuesday evening during a televised interview, saying she did not rule out “the withdrawal of Shiite ministers from the government.” According to MTV, discussions are ongoing to prevent the cabinet’s implosion, likely through a solution familiar in Lebanon: either a change of ambassador or an extension of the expulsion deadline, currently set to expire Sunday evening.

Added to the recurring threats from Hezbollah officials, including Wafic Safa and others, alongside tensions triggered by the government’s decision to declare the party’s military operations illegal, and the controversy surrounding President Aoun’s proposal for direct negotiations with Israel, this latest dispute further strains relations between an armed militia and the rest of Lebanon’s political actors. The atmosphere is so tense that the specters of the civil war seem to be awakening, fueled by fears of a new Israeli occupation of large areas in the South, which has already caused significant population displacement. Addressing these concerns, President Aoun told the daily an-Nahar that “there is no new civil war” in Lebanon.

Into this fraught environment came a new message from Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem on Wednesday. For the second consecutive time, he did not appear on camera, even in a recorded statement; instead, his (brief) message was read by a third party on the party’s al-Manar channel. Without directly addressing the issue of the Iranian ambassador’s expulsion, Qassem said that “any negotiation under fire is a capitulation,” calling for “national unity against the Israeli-American project that will lead to Greater Israel, erasing Lebanon.”

Consistent with his usual stance, Qassem argued that the state’s monopoly on arms “weakens Lebanon,” warning the government “against decisions that serve Israel’s interests, even if the intention is otherwise,” and asserting that he “has no doubt for a second about the victory of the Resistance.”