For the First Time Since Taif, Beirut Asserts Its Authority in the Face of the Iranian Axis

Following the official ban on the military activities of Hezbollah and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards in Lebanon, the decision to expel Iran’s ambassador to Beirut and recall the head of Lebanon’s diplomatic mission in Tehran undoubtedly marks the most consequential step taken by Nawaf Salam’s government since Hezbollah drew the country into the military confrontation opposing Iran to Israel and the United States.

And for good reason: for the first time since Taif (1989), the Lebanese authorities are setting clear limits and seeking to shield the country from foreign interference in its internal affairs – interference that has often proved damaging, even devastating.

On Tuesday, Lebanon’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the chargé d’affaires at the Iranian embassy to inform him that Lebanon had decided to withdraw the accreditation of Ambassador Mohammad Reza Shibani, ordering him to leave the country no later than Sunday. Appointed in mid-February to head Iran’s diplomatic mission in Beirut, Shibani arrived in the Lebanese capital just one week before the outbreak of the war.

The decision to expel him was immediately welcomed in Tel Aviv and Paris, while figures within Hezbollah’s orbit decried it as a scandal.

Why does it matter? Because it allows the Lebanese state to demonstrate that it is serious about restoring its sovereignty and putting an end to armed groups and their backers, at a time when its (in)action following the initial decision taken in early March had drawn criticism both domestically and internationally. Beirut is thus signaling that, while it remains, for now, unable to halt the destructive course into which Hezbollah has drawn the country or to initiate the disarmament of a militia that continues to threaten the Lebanese authorities, it nonetheless retains room for maneuver on the political and judicial fronts – arrest warrants have, in fact, been issued against a group of militiamen apprehended while transporting rockets to southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah and Amal’s Rebellion

The big question remains how far the government will go, politically and judicially, against Hezbollah, whose leaders and close associates have denounced the expulsion of Iran’s ambassador. According to multiple consistent sources, Hezbollah and the head of the Amal movement – who also serves as Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri – contacted the ambassador to urge him to remain in his post and ignore the Lebanese government’s order to leave the country. Some sources further reported that the ambassador regards the expulsion order as “void.” By the end of the day, Hezbollah issued a statement sharply attacking Foreign Minister Joe Raggi and rejecting the government’s decision.

Alongside Hezbollah and Nabih Berri’s defiance of the government, the vice-president of the Supreme Shiite Council, Ali Khatib, who operates within Iran’s orbit, denounced the measure as “hasty, reckless, illegitimate, and unjustified.” In reality, however, the decision was long overdue. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam himself confirmed just a few days ago what has long been evident: Revolutionary Guard operatives are present in Lebanon in force, tasked with coordinating the war against Israel and, well before the outbreak of hostilities, organizing and training the leaders and fighters of the Iran-aligned group.

The most serious aspect of the religious leader’s remarks is that he described an official government decision as “a provocation against a Lebanese community” – referring to the Shiite community, which Hezbollah claims to represent exclusively.

The expulsion of the Iranian diplomat, at the government’s request, is justified in particular by the fact that Ambassador Shibani violated the provisions of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations and failed in his obligations by interfering in Lebanon’s internal affairs, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs explained in a statement. The ministry emphasized that the measure does not constitute a break in diplomatic relations with Iran, but follows, according to the statement, a series of the ambassador’s actions – including his public comments on Lebanese domestic politics and his assessments of government decisions – all of which contravene established diplomatic norms.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs also criticized Mohammad Reza Shibani for meeting with unofficial Lebanese groups without coordinating with the ministry – a clear reference to Hezbollah.

The precedent of Albert Moukheiber with the Egyptian ambassador

It is worth recalling in this regard the precedent, in the contemporary history of Lebanon, of the expulsion of the Egyptian ambassador from Beirut in the context of the 1958 civil war. Albert Moukheiber was then acting Minister of Foreign Affairs and decided to expel the Egyptian ambassador, who was accused, as in the current case of the Iranian ambassador, of destabilizing interference in Lebanese internal affairs.

Escalation of Strikes

This development comes as tensions on the ground have intensified – violent exchanges of fire have resumed between Israel and Hezbollah, in the context of a wider regional escalation. One striking element on Tuesday was the entanglement of Iraq, like Lebanon, in the ongoing conflict: fifteen fighters of the pro-Iranian Hashed al-Shaabi militia, including a senior commander, were killed at dawn in an airstrike on western Iraq – the deadliest attack against this alliance of former paramilitaries, which denounced it as “an American strike.”

Among the victims was “the Al-Anbar operations commander for the Hashed al-Shaabi, Saad Dawaï.” The strike in the Habbaniya area occurred during a command meeting, according to an alliance official who spoke to AFP.

Al-Anbar, a predominantly Sunni region, is Iraq’s largest province by area and borders the strategically important frontiers with Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan.

Illustrating the spiral into which Iraq is being drawn amid the regional conflict, the autonomous Kurdistan region in the north accused Iran of firing ballistic missiles at its armed forces, killing six Peshmerga soldiers. In both cases, these are the deadliest attacks since the war began on 28 February.

In the past, Iran has fired ballistic missiles at the autonomous region, but in recent years relations had warmed. With the war, Kurdistan’s leaders are exercising caution and seeking to maintain a degree of neutrality. In a statement, the Peshmerga Ministry denounced “an act of aggression (…) far from any principle of good neighborliness” – adding, “We reiterate our sovereign and legitimate right to respond to any aggression against our people and our territory.”

Iran, which has just appointed Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr – a former Revolutionary Guard commander and loyalist of the late Ali Larijani – to replace him as head of the Supreme Security Council, has continued its attacks against Israel. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait announced that they, too, were facing drone and missile attacks.

In response, the Israeli army struck around a hundred targets, including a series of airstrikes on Isfahan.

According to Fars News Agency, two Iranian energy facilities were hit in joint Israeli-American strikes, just hours after the unexpected announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump to spare certain power plants for five days – the deadline he had set for Tehran to respond to the conditions laid out for negotiations.

In Israel, around ten Iranian missiles targeted the north and central regions of the country, wounding several people in Tel Aviv – once again underscoring the intensity of a confrontation that threatens to escalate, despite the prospect of upcoming negotiations between Tehran and Washington.

Talks and Skepticism

In this context, it is worth noting that in Israel, a degree of skepticism persists regarding the potential outcome of U.S.-Iranian talks, announced on Monday by Donald Trump. The president has set himself a five-day window to advance discussions with “a senior Iranian official,” whom he did not identify, before resuming bombings and targeting, in particular, Iran’s power grid.

On the diplomatic front, unconfirmed reports of bilateral discussions continue to emerge, while media outlets report that the U.S. military is preparing to deploy additional troops and assets to the Middle East.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose war objectives do not always align with those of his ally, revealed that Trump considers it possible “to reach an agreement that would preserve Israel’s vital interests.” But “at the same time, we continue to strike both Iran and Lebanon.” In response, the Revolutionary Guards stated that they would continue launching missiles at Israel if it “persists in its attacks against Lebanon and Palestine.”

Iranian missiles in Lebanese airspace were intercepted Tuesday afternoon, amid conflicting reports about their intended target – the U.S. embassy in Awkar or Cyprus. In any case, debris fell across several areas of Kesrouan without causing casualties.

From Tehran, the Foreign Ministry only acknowledged receiving, through “friendly countries,” “messages conveying an American request for negotiations.”

Whatever the real scope of these diplomatic initiatives, Qatar, Egypt, and Pakistan said they support “all efforts” to promote dialogue. While Doha indicated it does not wish to participate directly, Islamabad expressed willingness to host potential U.S.-Iran talks, stating that it had been approached for this purpose.

Doha also suggested that Iran’s neighbors should collectively review their security arrangements. “The Gulf states, which have worked in close coordination (…) to ensure their security, need to reassess (…) a common regional security framework,” said Majed al-Ansari, spokesperson for the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

In Washington, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt did not deny reports of Pakistani diplomatic initiatives but urged that these “speculations” not be “taken as confirmed” until officially announced by Washington.

The involvement of Islamabad would make sense, says Michael Kugelman, South Asia expert at the Atlantic Council. “Pakistan is one of the few countries that maintains warm relations with both Tehran and Washington” and “it represents Tehran’s diplomatic interests in Washington,” where Iran has no embassy.

Egypt, for its part, appears to be pursuing its own agenda. Its Foreign Minister, Badr Abdelatty, has held talks in recent days with representatives from Iran, the United States, Türkiye, and Pakistan, according to official statements.

Rubio in Europe

In any case, with the deadline set by Donald Trump for Iran expiring on Friday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to be in France for a G7 meeting, where he is set to discuss the war in Iran and the broader situation in the Middle East with his European counterparts. This will be his first foreign trip since the United States and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February.