Iran War: Diplomatic Tug-of-War Against a Backdrop of Military Escalation

Less than 24 hours before the expiration of the deadline given by US President Donald Trump to Tehran to respond to the 15 points of an American plan to end the ongoing war, diplomatic contacts aimed at fostering the start of a dialogue are intensifying, while the dynamic on the ground remains one of increasing pressure: violent Israeli-American strikes against Iranian military targets continue, while Tehran continues to target civilian and military infrastructure in Israel and the Gulf countries.

More than ever today, the risk of a total large-scale regional conflagration seems high if Tehran continues its prevarications regarding its nuclear and ballistic program or its «sponsorship» of militias that destabilize countries like Lebanon, Iraq, or Yemen, or even Gulf countries where terrorist cells, notably linked to Hezbollah, are regularly dismantled.

Should Iran provide a lukewarm response to American demands, Washington would give its green light for a ground operation it had threatened, which would involve seizing strategic points, such as Kharg Island, and three others: Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb.

These last three islands were under United Arab Emirates control until the early 1970s but are currently held by Iranian forces, which threaten commercial navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

On Thursday, Donald Trump issued a new warning to Tehran in a message on his social network, Truth Social, calling on it to «get serious before it's too late».

«Iranian negotiators are very different and strange. They would do well to get serious very quickly, before it's too late, because failing an agreement, there will be no turning back, and it's not going to be pretty», he warned.

A little later, during a press conference, he reaffirmed that the American army had almost entirely destroyed Iran's military capabilities and that it was «Tehran and not the United States that desperately seeks an agreement, contrary to what some media report», adding that he was «not sure if he wanted to sign an agreement»

Mediators are still striving to find common ground for an initial way out of the crisis, as confirmed by the Foreign Ministers of Egypt, Badr Abdelatty, and Pakistan, Ishaq Dar.

They explained that their respective countries, along with Turkey, are acting as intermediaries and transmitting messages between Tehran and Washington.

«Egyptian efforts are continuing to achieve de-escalation. Although we have not yet achieved concrete results, we remain optimistic», said Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, who was received on Thursday by Lebanese President Joseph Aoun at Baabda Palace.

He also stated that his country was in contact with Israel, the United States, and France to also prevent a deeper Israeli ground incursion into Lebanon, while supporting the disarmament of Hezbollah and the extension of Lebanese state authority over the entire territory.

The Strait of Hormuz, a barometer of the crisis

The proliferation of intermediaries reflects the complexity of resolving a multi-dimensional crisis that has quickly gone beyond the bilateral framework of Iran, on the one hand, and Israel and the United States, on the other.

This dimension is particularly evident in the tug-of-war over the Strait of Hormuz, an important lever of pressure for Iran, which today crystallizes all tensions. Not only between Iran and the Tel Aviv-Washington axis, but also between the United States and its European partners.

On Truth Social, the American president renewed his criticism of the Europeans who, according to him, should engage in the war to ensure the smooth passage of oil tankers and cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

«NATO countries have done absolutely nothing to help against this crazy nation that is Iran, now militarily decimated. The United States needs nothing from NATO, but this very important moment should never be forgotten», he warned.

A threat he repeated during his press conference and which fuels European fears, in particular, of a loss of American support for Ukraine in its war against Russia.

While G7 countries began discussing the Middle East issue on Thursday in Brussels, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte indicated that more than thirty states are coordinating their efforts to guarantee freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, where only ships flying the flag of countries deemed «neutral» by Tehran are allowed to pass.

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim thus announced that his tankers were able to cross after discussions with the Islamic Republic, while the Gulf Cooperation Council, through Jassem Al-Budaiwi, accused Iran of demanding financial compensation to let ships pass.

Donald Trump rejected this «Iranian blackmail» and stated during his press conference that 154 Iranian warships had been destroyed, while Israel had announced earlier the liquidation of the commander of the Revolutionary Guards' navy, Alireza Tangsiri, «directly responsible for blocking the Strait of Hormuz». His elimination can be considered strategic in the context of a possible military operation aimed at restoring freedom of navigation in this passage.

Lebanon, another node of the crisis

Another complicated node of the crisis: Lebanon. On the ground, clashes between Israel and Hezbollah are intensifying. The Israeli army, which continues to advance deeper into the south of the country, far from the border, announced the death of about thirty Hezbollah militants in close-quarters combat.

Only one Israeli soldier was killed during this battle. At least three other people were killed in the southern part of the country in Israeli strikes, while an Israeli succumbed to his wounds in Nahariya, targeted in the afternoon by Hezbollah.

The pro-Iranian party seems to be gradually expanding the spectrum of its targets, with its rockets having reached Acre on Thursday.

Behind this escalation, however, lies a significant strategic divergence. Israel, as its leaders repeatedly state, always wants to dissociate the Lebanese front from the Iranian issue, in order to maintain its freedom of military action and to put an end to the permanent threat that Hezbollah poses to localities in the northern part of its territory.

A deeper incursion to establish a security zone or a buffer zone is part of this logic. The Arabic-speaking spokesperson for the Israeli army, Avichay Adraee, renewed his call on Thursday afternoon to residents of localities south of Zahrani to move north.

Conversely, Tehran seems to want to link the two issues, should negotiations be held with Washington, conditioning any de-escalation, among other things, on a halt to Israeli operations in Lebanon.

He reportedly sent messages to this effect to his military arm in the country. This same condition was reiterated by the head of the pro-Iranian group, Naïm Qassem, in his message broadcast on Wednesday by the al-Manar channel, during which he reaffirmed his opposition to negotiations with the Hebrew state.

But the most important remains the tug-of-war between the State, which wants to assert itself and distance itself from Hezbollah, and the pro-Iranian formation and its allies, who are always seeking to impose their will.

One of the main facets of this tug-of-war remains the dispute over the State's decision to expel Ambassador Mohammad Reza Chibani, appointed by Tehran to Beirut.

This decision, it is recalled, was announced by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, following consultations with the Presidency of the Republic and the Presidency of the Council. The Shiite ministers, despite being servants of the State like their colleagues, align themselves in this context with the policy of Iran and the Amal-Hezbollah tandem.

In protest against a decision they deem unjustified, they boycotted Thursday's cabinet meeting held at the Serail.

Only Fady Makki, an independent Shiite minister, took part in the meeting.

The position of his colleagues highlighted the vast chasm that exists today between two Lebanons: that of the loyalists of a foreign power that wants to maintain its grip on the country, and that of the Lebanese who want to free themselves from the forces that spoil their sovereignty and undermine their state, without compromising on the essentials.

Faced with the risks of a new Israeli occupation of part of South Lebanon, due to Hezbollah, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam instructed Foreign Minister Joe Raggi to submit a complaint against Israel to the UN.

At the same time, he denounced the presence of two Hezbollah militants in the terrorist cell dismantled last week by Kuwait, and also stigmatized Iranian strikes against Gulf countries.

After years of isolation, always due to Hezbollah, official Lebanon is gradually reintegrating its Arab environment and moving away from the axis that has brought it a cascade of destruction over the years.