Politics

The Gulf States have emerged and become rich, certainly, thanks to the exploitation of their resources, but they have carried out, through rapidly crossed stages, a true cybernetic conversion that amounts to a revolution in the proper sense. The era of soft power in which they engaged was achieved through reorientations, observations, transformations, and adaptations, thanks to which they became a regional power. They subsequently expanded their capabilities and developed their multi-service area of action, which conferred upon them a global status. But these states did not want to stop there. The dynamism that allowed them to achieve their sought-after goals did not stop at this stage. The will and energy that characterized all these existential transformations led them to board the train configuring a new world, that of networks, data, their processing and management: the world of flows, connectivity, and also of space. They are becoming important actors in the new globalization scheme; they are at the « smart power » stage.

Somaliland's official recognition by Israel, announced last Friday by Benjamin Netanyahu, offers a new perspective on Red Sea security, the stability of the Horn of Africa, and global geopolitical balances. While the Israeli government intends to capitalize on the positive outcomes of its diplomacy, opinions diverge within the Hebrew State and worldwide. The territory of Somaliland, located in northwest Somalia, covers 175,000 km² and is populated by approximately five million inhabitants. It corresponds to the former colony of British Somaliland, while Italy had occupied the rest of the country.

Who can believe that the Shiite community—especially that of South Lebanon—will withstand this perfidious war of attrition? Day after day, Israeli strikes taunt it, challenge it to retaliate, and impose a hellish pace. If, at the outset, Hezbollah’s restraint was synonymous with self-control, that is no longer the case. And the Party of God can no longer claim to be exercising self-discipline after a year of provocation. Hence the question of whether it will finally choose the path of confrontation or yield to the demands of disarmament ? Will the perseverance of the israeli army ultimately overcome the legendary patience of civilians? For discontent is rising among an exasperated Twelver population. Worked up to a fever pitch, it sees no way out of this conflict, nor any benefit in it. And who could still deceive it when the evidence is so clear: the day after October 7, it was sacrificed on the altar of Palestine, and now, a year later, it is immolated on the altar of Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

The American military operation against the jihadist group Daesh (Islamic State or IS) launched last Friday to Saturday night follows the attack perpetrated on Saturday, December 13, by the terrorist organization against American and allied forces in Syria. This attack was carried out by a member of the Syrian security forces, embarrassing the Damascus government, which is trying to get closer to the United States. While "more than 70 targets" were hit across the country, US President Donald Trump spoke of "very heavy reprisals". Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth announced on X that it was a "direct response" and a "declaration of vengeance" after the attack on Saturday that killed two American servicemen and a translator in Syria.

The jugular vein that once supplied it with weapons and ammunition has been severed. And yet, Hezbollah refuses to abide by the commitments made in its name through Nabih Berri. Because it does not believe it has been defeated—and because the fertile ground of the South, where it took root, has not contradicted that belief. To be perfectly frank, a handful of dissenting and comforting Shiite voices are hardly enough to bring it back to reason. Though the party of the mullahs has taken a beating, it has not abandoned the fight. It has gone underground to preserve the core of its forces. According to certain sources, it has even rebuilt its military capabilities. In other words, it is recovering. At the same time, it has worn down Western diplomacy, which is openly hostile to it. It can therefore savor its victory. Playing the card of “strategic patience,” learned from seasoned masters, it has created such a diplomatic mess that France has once again rushed to Lebanon’s bedside—to untangle the knot.

Foreign Minister Youssef Raggi and former ambassador Simon Karam—Lebanon’s representative at the meetings of the ceasefire supervision mechanism with Israel—clearly unsettle pro-Hezbollah circles because they herald the long-overdue return of external sovereignty. That sovereignty means a state’s refusal to submit to any higher authority and its recognition by other states as an equal. Youssef Raggi and Simon Karam come at exactly the right moment—at a time when most Lebanese have grown disillusioned with everything. Many now look back with nostalgia to the period preceding the 1975 civil war, that blessed era when the Lebanese state was master in its own house, exercising both external and internal sovereignty—that is, exclusive authority over its territory and population.

The Gulf States emerged and accumulated wealth through the exploitation of their energy resources, but they have also undergone, in rapidly successive stages, a profound transformation that has enabled them to assert themselves on the international stage. Eager not to remain merely “the Gulf States,” Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar sought to move beyond a purely regional status by building on the assets they had acquired, while multiplying and developing them through a process resembling a forced march—sometimes judged excessive or unrestrained, yet reflecting a determination that has allowed them to pursue their ambitions and achieve global recognition.

Power is imposing one's will: to do, to make others do, to prevent doing, to compel others to do (Raymond Aron). The Gulf States emerged and grew wealthy thanks to the exploitation of their natural resources—oil and gas—particularly since what was later called the first oil shock of 1973. This shock was significant for what is commonly referred to as the West, namely North America and Europe, even though at that time in the 1970s a large part of Europe was not, by any means, part of the European Union and was still subject to the Soviet yoke and, equally, to that of communism for nearly another twenty years.

Yahya Sinwar died without laying down his arms. For some who praise him, this fugitive fought with pride until his last breath. He may now serve as a model to emulate for Hezbollah’s fighters. Like him—and before him—there was Saddam Hussein, unflinching before the gallows. And with that, you expect Hezbollah to surrender its weapons and submit to conditions imposed upon him… Living Dangerously Al-silah zinat al-rijal (that is, “weapons are the adornment of men”), a slogan repeated in South Lebanon, a region where a whole generation has tasted the brotherhood of arms. Military operations have given combatants a taste for the “heroic life,” an addiction one does not escape unscathed. An addiction the majority of Lebanese do not share. Moreover, the emblematic figure of al-Hussein, who fell with weapons in hand, makes any idea of capitulation odious, if not impious.

The two years following Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attack on Israel have marked a decisive turning point not only for the Levant region but for the entire Middle East. In this ongoing regional upheaval, Iran has not escaped unscathed; indeed, it has been severely affected. In a context of heightened geopolitical turbulence, the Islamic Republic of Iran now faces a dual challenge: to regain its prestige on an international level, and, simultaneously, to restructure itself internally so as to be prepared for the various scenarios that could rapidly emerge on the horizon. Bluster on the international stage is no longer an option. Iran’s dual support for the Houthis and Hezbollah, in particular, must be carefully weighed in light of the risks involved, foremost among them those posed by President Donald Trump, who, for the time being, remains the most powerful figure on the international stage. Should China – his main competitor – force him into a direct, fierce confrontation with them, one could then expect President Trump to settle any dispute in a manner that safeguards his reputation and almost unassailable position. China has no desire to intervene in a Middle Eastern powder keg; it prefers to wait for the right moment to exploit the situation to its advantage.