How Hezbollah Shifts the Burden onto the Lebanese State

The jugular vein that once supplied it with weapons and ammunition has been severed. And yet, Hezbollah refuses to abide by the commitments made in its name through Nabih Berri. Because it does not believe it has been defeated—and because the fertile ground of the South, where it took root, has not contradicted that belief. To be perfectly frank, a handful of dissenting and comforting Shiite voices are hardly enough to bring it back to reason.

Though the party of the mullahs has taken a beating, it has not abandoned the fight. It has gone underground to preserve the core of its forces. According to certain sources, it has even rebuilt its military capabilities. In other words, it is recovering. At the same time, it has worn down Western diplomacy, which is openly hostile to it. It can therefore savor its victory. Playing the card of “strategic patience,” learned from seasoned masters, it has created such a diplomatic mess that France has once again rushed to Lebanon’s bedside—to untangle the knot.

A “second mechanism” to monitor disarmament is currently being devised, said Jean-Noël Barrot, France’s foreign minister—so as to avoid escalation, he added. Have the gentlemen at the Quai d’Orsay ever wondered how much their Lebanese sympathies cloud their judgment?

Strategic Patience and Its Price

Caught in a trap, Hezbollah has lost around forty fighters in southern villages since last October. And that is not all. Since the November 2024 ceasefire, the IDF has killed more than four hundred of its supporters. It is a heavy toll, but what do such sacrifices matter to the Resistance? They are merely the minimum price of that same “strategic patience” instilled by its Iranian mentors.

In reality, the Party of God has shifted onto the Lebanese state the obligations that weigh upon it—chief among them, disarmament. It stalls. It drags its feet. It splits hairs, drawing a subtle distinction between north and south of the Litani River.

And who bears the brunt of constant pressure and American anger, voiced by the likes of Tom Barrack or Tom Harb? I’ll let you guess.

An Admission of Powerlessness

Hezbollah has jammed the “engine of the state,” and it is the Lebanese army that pays the price and takes the blows. Threats are made to cut off aid and funding; the army commander’s visit to the United States is canceled; harassment comes from all sides. In his bunker, Sheikh Naïm Qassem must be rubbing his hands: not a single dollar for the Lebanese state without prior disarmament. And thus the indispensable—and well-hidden—secretary general has plunged the Lebanese cabinet and its members into embarrassment. After all, as some observers across the Atlantic slyly remark, “these people cannot deliver.”

Can anyone truly claim that Hezbollah has lost its “battle for Lebanon”?

There will be other battles indeed —but only the final one will seal its demise.