Why is Israel betting on Somaliland?
Somaliland's official recognition by Israel, announced last Friday by Benjamin Netanyahu, offers a new perspective on Red Sea security, the stability of the Horn of Africa, and global geopolitical balances. While the Israeli government intends to capitalize on the positive outcomes of its diplomacy, opinions diverge within the Hebrew State and worldwide.
The territory of Somaliland, located in northwest Somalia, covers 175,000 km² and is populated by approximately five million inhabitants. It corresponds to the former colony of British Somaliland, while Italy had occupied the rest of the country.
The territory declared its independence in 1991, while the Republic of Somalia plunged into chaos after the fall of the military regime of autocrat Siad Barre.
Somaliland controls a strategic maritime facade on the Gulf of Aden, in the immediate vicinity of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a key passage connecting the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Approximately 10% of global maritime trade transits through this area.
Major strategic point
For several years, this route has been weakened by attacks by Yemeni Houthis, supported by Iran, against commercial vessels, in a context of regional conflict expanded since the Gaza war.
For proponents of recognition, this geographical factor is central. Israel, engaged on several security fronts, sees Somaliland as a potential platform for cooperation in intelligence, maritime surveillance, and the fight against asymmetric threats, particularly drones and missiles. Approximately 300 to 500 km from Houthi-controlled areas, the territory would offer a strategic depth similar to what Israel has developed with Azerbaijan vis-à-vis Iran.
An Atlantic Council analysis revealed that traffic at Bab el-Mandeb dropped during the Israeli-Palestinian crisis, and the International Monetary Fund estimated that the volume of trade at Suez had decreased by approximately 50% in early 2024.
Political stability
Beyond its location, Somaliland is presented by its supporters as a regional exception. For over three decades, it has had its own institutions: an elected Parliament, currency, army, police, and civil administrations. It has organized several pluralistic elections, ensured peaceful transitions of power, and maintained relative stability, contrasting sharply with neighboring Somalia, which is plagued by the Islamist insurgency of Al-Shabab and chronic political fragmentation.
Alignment with the West
Israel also highlights Somaliland's political alignment. The authorities in Hargeisa, the capital of the secessionist region, have sent numerous signals to Western powers, the United Arab Emirates, Taiwan, and now Israel, while displaying their hostility to Chinese, Turkish, and Islamist influence in the region. In a context of increased rivalry between major powers over strategic maritime routes, ignoring a relatively stable and cooperative actor would, according to this interpretation, be a strategic oversight.
This recognition is also perceived as a message to Washington. Several Israeli officials and analysts believe that the United States should follow Tel Aviv's example. They emphasize that America's commitment to the principle of a 'unified Somalia' no longer reflects realities on the ground, and that Somaliland's stability rests precisely on its separation from Mogadishu's dysfunctional political system. Somaliland officials have also offered the United States access to a strategic port and a Cold War-era airstrip in exchange for official recognition.
Tribal system
However, this optimistic reading is challenged by some. Many experts indeed believe that the Israeli decision carries major risks and could prove counterproductive. The first criticism concerns Somaliland's internal fragility. Despite its image of stability, the territory is marked by deep divisions. Clan affiliation plays a central role in politics, land ownership, and representation.
Hybrid war
On a strictly military level, critics deem the idea that Somaliland can alter the strategic balance against the Houthis as illusory. The latter have withstood years of Saudi and American airstrikes and continue to disrupt navigation with inexpensive means. According to this analysis, only a ground campaign led by actors with structured armies and genuine political will could defeat them, capabilities that Somaliland does not possess.
Host territory for Palestinians?
This year, press reports indicated that the United States and Israel had approached Somaliland, among other countries, about hosting Palestinians from Gaza. Neither Somaliland, which at the time stated that no such discussions had taken place, nor Israel addressed this issue in their respective statements on Friday.
Terrorist risk
Another major risk concerns extremism. Al-Shabab, an Al-Qaeda affiliate, immediately condemned the recognition and threatened to fight any Israeli attempt to 'use' Somaliland. Analysts fear that the strong anti-Israeli sentiment present in part of Somali society could be instrumentalized by Islamists to strengthen their recruitment and legitimacy, by presenting the Hargeisa government as an ally of 'Zionism' and a traitor to the Palestinian cause.
All-out condemnations
Diplomatically, the recognition has sparked a wave of condemnations. The African Union, the Arab League, the Gulf Cooperation Council, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, the European Union, as well as key countries like Egypt, Turkey, and China, have reaffirmed their commitment to Somalia's territorial integrity. Many African states, themselves facing secessionist claims, fear the creation of a precedent.
Even the United States, despite being courted by Hargeisa, refused to follow Israel. Donald Trump publicly dismissed immediate recognition, highlighting the potential diplomatic isolation of such a move. Saudi Arabia, for its part, expressed its opposition, reducing the impact of this initiative on a possible extension of the Abraham Accords.
On Saturday, Tehran denounced a "malicious maneuver by the Zionist regime" and a "plot to disintegrate" Somalia.
Asked by the New York Post about potential recognition by Washington, the US president replied "no," refusing to follow his Israeli ally. He added: "we're going to look into it," before wondering: "Do people actually know what Somaliland is?"...
Between geostrategic opportunity and destabilizing factor, the real effects of this decision can only be measured with the passage of time and regional dynamics.