Welcome to Tropic Thunder , a five-part short series by Levant Time designed to help you understand the different reasons behind the current U.S. interventionism in the Caribbean. This series was completed 48 hours before the American attack on Venezuela.
Welcome to Tropic Thunder , a five-part short series by Levant Time designed to help you understand the different reasons behind the current U.S. interventionism in the Caribbean. This series was completed 48 hours before the American attack on Venezuela. Marco Rubio, U.S. Secretary of State, Quito, Ecuador, September 5, 2025: “Nicolás Maduro is a drug trafficker charged in the United States and a fugitive from American justice.” This accusation, repeatedly hammered home by Washington for several years, is currently Donald Trump’s main justification for the operations carried out in the Caribbean Sea. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is also under U.S. sanctions, accused in particular of leading an organization recently designated as terrorist by the United States: the Cartel of the Suns.
Welcome to Tropic Thunder , a five-part short series by Levant Time designed to help you understand the different reasons behind the current U.S. interventionism in the Caribbean. This series was completed 48 hours before the American attack on Venezuela. EPISODE 1 — Operation Southern Spear Over the past few months, the Caribbean Sea has once again become an area of heightened geopolitical tension. On August 14, the United States ordered a massive military deployment to the southern Caribbean, mobilizing U.S. Navy units, Marines, and air power, in what some analysts describe as the largest concentration of U.S. forces in Latin America in decades.
Longevity is often mistaken for stability. In geopolitics, this is one of the most costly analytical errors. Some regimes do not survive because they are strong, adaptive, or broadly supported. They survive because they have learned how to manage decline: suppress dissent, fragment opposition, externalise internal failures, and stretch coercion beyond legitimacy. Over time, this creates an illusion of permanence. But permanence built on control rather than consent is, by nature, brittle. As we move into 2026, two states stand out as emblematic of this dangerous illusion: Iran and Venezuela . Both regimes are routinely described as resilient. Iran projects power far beyond its borders through an extensive network of regional proxies. Venezuela’s leadership has outlasted sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and economic collapse. To many observers, endurance itself has become proof of stability.
It is not the first time that Iranians have taken to the streets to challenge their rulers. But this latest popular movement is distinguished by the mobilization of a new actor: the Bazaar merchants, considered one of the pillars of the Islamic regime. It all began on December 28, when Tehran merchants launched a strike to protest against hyperinflation and economic stagnation. The movement has since expanded to include political demands. Since the beginning of the protests, the authorities have adopted a dual approach, combining appeasement, by recognizing "legitimate demands" related to economic difficulties, and firmness against any attempt at destabilization.
Like a play. Last act in Venezuela… The deus ex machina from the United States, so long announced, has finally intervened. Donald Trump's administration materialized its threats of a direct intervention on Venezuelan soil against the government of Nicolas Maduro, early Saturday, January 3, 2026. For the record, it's worth noting that it was also on January 3rd that Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force (part of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), was assassinated in Baghdad in 2020, on the orders of President Donald Trump. It was also on January 3rd that the President of Panama, Manuel Noriega, surrendered to the Americans following a U.S. intervention in Panama.
It is a grave mistake to approach American and Israeli expansionism through the same lens, despite the apparent convergence of their projects at pivotal regional moments. Conflating them not only obscures the fundamental structural differences but also misleads us into understanding the nature of today's conflicts and the forms of control now exercised in the name of security, deterrence, or “stability.” Expansion, as a political-strategic concept, is not singular in its motives or tools, even when it leads to similar outcomes. What unites the United States and Israel today is not a unified project, but rather an overlap of interests and a shared set of tools, at a transitional moment in which the meaning of control and influence is being redefined.
Devastated by nearly a decade of civil war opposing the internationally recognized government to Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, Yemen is now facing a new fault line. A confrontation with southern separatists has upset the balance of the conflict and pitted two long-standing regional allies against each other: Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Tensions escalated in early December when the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist movement supported by the United Arab Emirates but officially a member of the anti-Houthi coalition, seized vast territories in eastern Yemen, gaining control of the Hadramout province and a large part of the neighboring Mahra province.
The signing of a trilateral military cooperation plan between Israel, Greece, and Cyprus for 2026 marks a significant step in consolidating a security axis in the Eastern Mediterranean. Officially, the agreement, disclosed last Sunday by the Israeli army, provides for reinforced joint exercises, cross-training, and strategic military dialogue. But beyond its technical framework, it is part of a broader logic of collective deterrence, in a context of Turkey's rising military, diplomatic, and maritime power, particularly around exclusive economic zones, energy routes, and disputed airspaces. The project, discussed for several months, to establish a rapid reaction force - non-permanent but quickly deployable on land, at sea, and in the air - illustrates a major doctrinal evolution. It is no longer just about punctual or bilateral cooperations, but rather the progressive construction of a credible multinational operational capability. In a region marked by the war in Gaza, Syrian instability, persistent tensions in Lebanon, and competition over gas resources, this approach aims as much to prevent crises as to respond to them.
