Politics

Even under heavy bombardment, even upon being chased by Syrian revenge or international justice, Hezbollah’s zealots will never dissolve into the national melting pot. They will not behave like the partisans of the Amal Movement, who are so typically Lebanese in their flaws, their rhetoric, their compromises and convenient settlements. And there is indeed some reason for that, as our contemporary history offers a precedent that still raises doubts. No one has forgotten what happened to the Lebanese Forces upon accepting the Taif Agreement and laying down their arms. They paid the heavy price: their leader was imprisoned, and their cadres were persecuted and even liquidated.

Direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel have officially begun with the aim of reaching a peace agreement. Their fundamental condition is the disarmament of Hezbollah. Other points, both essential and secondary, are on the table, notably economic cooperation enabling both countries to move forward on the path to recovery, the reconstruction of South Lebanon, and security and stabilization on Israel's northern border. Before going into detail and analysis, before examining the various perspectives, and before reviewing the events that have led Lebanon to pay the heaviest price in the Arab-Israeli conflict for over half a century, a simple question arises: what is the alternative to peace with Israel, to Lebanon's recovery, and to the country's reconstruction? There is no clear answer. The state has been absent for decades, and the Iranian militia based in Lebanon decides, unilaterally, when to launch a war, when to conclude a truce, when to negotiate, when to support Gaza, when to provoke Israel, or when to destabilize neighboring Arab countries. It builds tunnels to continue the wars instead of constructing shelters and hospitals. Until the day Hezbollah trapped itself in a strategic dead end. The war it instigated to serve the Iranian project under the slogan of "unity of fronts" is one it can no longer end. Tehran has gradually withdrawn the cover it provided to Hezbollah. It seeks to buy time to preserve the regime and maintains Hezbollah for future use. But Israel now refuses to tolerate any continued threat posed by Hezbollah. He pushed this militia back north of the Litani River, which proved simpler than carrying out Nabih Berri's famous quip to his visitors, who were warning him about the deteriorating situation, suggesting that the Litani River should be moved to the border with Israel! As a result, Hezbollah is no longer acting according to the old rules of deterrence. In fact, it isn't reacting at all. It has endorsed a truce, but a truce is merely a respite between two wars. The Lebanese leaders, long absent and hesitant, even overwhelmed by the de facto reality, have finally woken up. They have taken the initiative, but hesitated, then failed to follow through. What they will not accomplish, Israel will do in their place—but the price to pay will be far higher.

The Levant has, over the past two years, witnessed profound and dramatic upheavals that have reshaped the region’s geopolitical landscape. The chain of events set in motion since Hamas’s deadly attack on Israel from the Gaza Strip on 7 October 2023 seems to have paved the way for the emergence of a new Middle East, as Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, repeatedly asserts. As 2025 draws to a close, what overall picture, what prospects, and what political and security assessment can be made of this region? By stepping back and looking at the wider picture, it becomes easier to examine closely the developments under way and the sweeping changes that have unfolded across Lebanon, Syria, Israel, Gaza (and the Palestinian territories), as well as Iran.

On November 6 th , the United Nations Security Council, driven by the United States, voted to lift UN sanctions against Syrian President Ahmad el-Chareh. This measure followed a similar decision earlier in the summer, when both the United States and the European Union ended their sanctions against Bashar el Assad’s Syria, which had been imposed during the civil war that began in 2011. The general lifting of sanctions will allow Syria to reintegrate into the Arab sphere and the global economy, paving the way for renewed investment and the reconstruction of the country. The Caesar Act The most emblematic measure among the sanctions targeting Assad’s Syria was the adoption of the Caesar Act by the United States in 2019. The law was named after a Syrian military photographer who smuggled out more than 50,000 photographs documenting abuses committed by the Baathist regime during the civil war.

Pope Leo gave the Lebanese what belongs to the Lebanese: recognition of their great resilience. But if we try to read his words on the serious global problem he identified for everyone through Lebanese eyes—let's say Lebanese eyes only, since he addressed these words to the whole world—we would understand that this resilience should be investigated: “A kind of pessimism and sense of powerlessness seem to have taken hold, where people are no longer able to ask themselves what they can do to change the course of history. Major decisions appear to be taken by a select few, often to the detriment of the common good, as if this were an inevitable destiny”.

The “Gathering of Lebanese Shia” sent a message to Pope Leo XIV stating that the Lebanese State’s exclusive control of weapons “is the essential foundation for building a strong and just State.” Supporting peace “in accordance with Arab initiatives and international legitimacy,” the Gathering stressed its commitment to “acting exclusively under the authority of the State and the rule of law, and to supporting everything that strengthens its presence.” The “Gathering of Lebanese Shia” brings together academics, journalists, senior professionals, and Shiite citizens known for their sovereigntist stance, fundamentally opposed to Hezbollah’s political project.

By treating borders and constitutions as sacred and untouchable, today’s Lebanese politics forget that these tools exist for one purpose: the well-being of the human person — the one Your Holiness came to listen to in their suffering. Most Holy Father, During your visit to Lebanon, a grand national scene will be prepared to show prosperity and joy, where the splendor of religious sites will outshine that of state institutions. But has Your Holiness come to see the life of palaces, or the life of a people worn down by fifty years of conflict, poverty and exodus, with no light on the horizon? Allow us, Holy Father, to share words that you will not hear in official halls. Lebanon is exhausted. No society can survive endless wars and crises by treating only the symptoms without ever diagnosing the cause. There is, undoubtedly, corruption at the national level, and the expansionist ambitions of our neighbors at the regional level. But there is also a structural problem rooted in the very formation of our state.

Pope Leo XIV has chosen Lebanon – baptized by his predecessor, Saint John Paul II, as a “message-country” – for his first apostolic trip outside Italy. Under the theme “Blessed are the peacemakers,” the visit pierces through Lebanon’s war-scarred history like a ray of light. “Blessed are the peacemakers”: four words that set the tone. They leave their mark on the unfolding events and the course of history itself, as well as on the schedule of the visit, which is packed with official and ecumenical meetings, culminating in the solemn Mass to be celebrated along Beirut’s seafront. Yet, one must ask: does Lebanon truly need a communion of peace?

What a source of concern—and even of irritation—for Roman authorities, these Eastern Catholics do indeed generate! Had they vanished from the Levant, diplomatic relations between Rome and the Muslim countries of the Eastern Mediterranean would have been far smoother. That being said , things were never simple for Vatican diplomacy, on dealing deal with the Maronite community. Very early on, the Maronites asserted themselves politically as an autonomous entity rooted in a mountain stronghold, and what is more they never hesitated in insisting upon their distinctiveness. This set them apart from the other Christian communities of Syria and Iraq, which had long submitted to the rule of the majority and produced, for the most part, quiet individuals and compliant citizens.