Weekly essentials

The week that has just passed in the Middle East has been a crescendo of rhetoric and military action, culminating this Monday, April 6, in the end of the ultimatum issued by Donald Trump to the mullahs' regime, with the White House chief threatening to “annihilate” Iran's energy facilities. A week during which the American president was anything but stingy with declarations, the apotheosis having been reached on Saturday, when he gave the leaders in Tehran 48 hours to endorse the agreement he presented to them, failing which “hell” would descend upon them. Donald Trump asks them to “conclude a deal or open the Strait of Hormuz,” referring to negotiations based on the 15 points put forward by the Americans, which mainly concern the abandonment of nuclear and ballistic programs, as well as the cessation of funding for regional allies such as Hezbollah. Second US pilot found alive During this week, the American president blew hot and cold, as he has done since the beginning of this war against the mullahs' regime, sometimes giving deadlines of two or three weeks for the end of the conflict, or at other times favoring diplomacy by asserting that the Iranians “want to strike a deal at all costs.” Except that at the end of the week, it was the Iranians who gave the impression of seeking escalation. On Saturday, they refused a 48-hour ceasefire proposed by the Americans, instead intensifying their strikes against Israel on the one hand, and especially against the Gulf countries on the other, where they targeted sensitive infrastructure, such as desalination plants and power plants (in Kuwait), as an example. At a time when strikes against their territory are also intensifying, an unusual incident occurred on Saturday, when a nuclear power plant in the south of the country was hit. Furthermore, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (since they apparently now run the country) achieved a “moral victory” by shooting down an American F15 aircraft on Friday, with two commanders on board: one of them was quickly rescued by the American army; the second was found alive, but injured, on Saturday night (Beirut time), after a vast and very audacious 48-hour search operation conducted deep in Iranian territory by elite units of the American army, continuously supported by helicopters and reconnaissance planes flying over Iranian territory at low altitude. The rescue operation carried out without incident for two days by US elite units was marked, in its final stage, on Saturday night, by a clash with elements of the Basij (the repressive “police” of the Pasdaran) who attempted at the last minute to preempt American forces to capture the commander of the F-15, whose position had been spotted by the US army. The Basij militiamen, however, suffered heavy losses and the elite unit managed to reach the commander and rescue him before withdrawing to a neighboring Arab country. Intensive shelling against the Emirates and Kuwait Returning to “conventional” military operations, the end of the week was marked by an intensification of missile and drone strikes against, notably, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, where the Kuwaiti army reported on Saturday the interception, in 24 hours, of 8 ballistic missiles and 19 explosive-laden drones. The Emirates, for their part, reported having intercepted in a single day, Saturday, 23 ballistic missiles and 56 drones! But it is the Strait of Hormuz that remains the centerpiece of this armed conflict at the current stage, eclipsing all other issues raised by this war, such as the nuclear program and the regional positioning of the mullahs' regime. The Iranian gamble on the repercussions of closing this strategic waterway has paid off: rising fuel prices are already weighing on the economies of many countries and on purchasing power in places far removed from the center of the conflict in the Middle East. The Iranians even go so far as to claim they want to profit financially from passage through this strait. They have kept it closed for several weeks, allowing only the rare ships that have obtained their permission (notably Turkish and Indian ships) to pass, thereby reinforcing the impression of control they maintain over the strait. On Saturday, Iranian sources claimed to have targeted and hit an oil tanker “linked to Israel.” Another escalation on Tehran's side: an Iranian media outlet reported on Saturday that oil exports from the highly strategic island of Kharg, the very island that Trump threatens to conquer, have increased despite the conflict. Is this Iranian attitude, primarily the successive denials of negotiations with the Americans and the refusal of a 48-hour ceasefire, a sign of increased radicalization among Iranian leaders? Little information filters through on the internal political situation in Iran, but a significant clue in this regard is perceptible in the reactions to an article, though measured, written in “Foreign Affairs” by former Iranian Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif. He believes that Iran “has the upper hand in this conflict,” having been able to resist the assault against it, which, according to him, led to “the failure of both belligerents to force the regime to capitulate.” He emphasizes that Iran should use this situation not to continue the fight and cause even more devastating destruction, but to negotiate and offer to “voluntarily limit its nuclear program and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, in exchange for the lifting of all sanctions.” The hostile reactions to this article illustrated the polarization resulting from this war, but the most significant reactions were the extremely virulent ones from radical Iranian conservatives who went so far as to consider Zarif “naive” or even a “traitor,” accusing him of wanting to send signals of weakness in the midst of war. Meanwhile, the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, remains invisible. In short, the Iranians give the impression of wanting to push their two enemies to their last entrenchments. To negotiate better or in a headlong rush? What is (are) the possible scenario(s) for American military intervention next week? Knowing that the US Army Chief of Staff was dismissed this week by War Minister Pete Hegseth, in favor of a figure “who better implements President Trump's policy.” A sign of hardening on the American side as well. In any event, the coming week gives the impression of being a turning point in the war. In Lebanon… On the other front, that of Lebanon, the same atmosphere of escalation reigns between Hezbollah and Israel. The Shiite militia is conducting actions parallel to those of its Iranian patron, incessantly launching rockets, missiles, and drones on northern Israel and on Israeli positions within the territory. For its part, the Israeli army practices a scorched-earth policy in border villages, while extensively bombing numerous regions. The number of killed continues to rise, with over 1400 victims since March 2. A dangerous development occurred at the end of the week, Saturday evening, confirming the trend of increasing involvement of the Bekaa in the conflict: Israeli threats to strike the Masnaa border crossing, between Lebanon and Syria, forced Lebanese security forces to evacuate the post urgently. Why attack the Lebanese-Syrian borders? More or less realistic suspicions of arms smuggling for Hezbollah? The Minister of Public Works and Transport, Fayez Rassamny, denied that the border crossing was not well controlled. A desire for a blockade? Time will tell. Note a strange coincidence: on March 28, Syrian authorities discovered and closed a tunnel that crossed the border, and which, according to them, was used for smuggling by Hezbollah… During the past week, the resistance of the Christian villages in South Lebanon has been widely discussed: a decision to “reposition” the Lebanese army as the Israeli advance progressed drew very virulent criticism against the 'Great Mute' concerning what appears to be an abandonment of these populations who risk their lives to remain attached to their land. The army justified its initiative by the desire not to be encircled, assuring that it would keep soldiers stationed. If the Lebanese army is in the crosshairs of the belligerents in the South, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) is too. On March 30, three Indonesian peacekeepers were killed in a strike. Three other Indonesian peacekeepers were injured a few days later. Less than a year before its definitive departure, at the end of 2026, UNIFIL's role is once again being questioned. Another episode raised many questions this week: while Hezbollah continues to display absolute certainty in its fight and to extol the heroism of its fighters, the Israeli army published videos of interrogations it claims are of detainees from this party, captured during fighting in Lebanon. Their confessions provide evidence of very low morale, of fighters who question the meaning of their commitment but admit they cannot “say no” to the party… It is obvious that the veracity of these documents can be questioned, but their publication causes an electric shock. The future of Lebanon seems more confused than ever, and a possible escalation in Iran would add to the real uncertainties and apprehensions of the Lebanese. Another country seems to be gradually weakening, even if it is not in open war like Lebanon: Iraq increasingly gives the impression of being an open scene for the ongoing conflict. In addition to attacks against American interests that the authorities cannot curb, the first kidnapping of an American national, a journalist, by the pro-Iranian “Kataeb Hezbollah,” took place in central Baghdad, which speaks volumes about the de facto situation imposed, there too, by factions subservient to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.

The past week, the fourth since the start of the conflict between Israel and the United States on one side, and Iran on the other, has further obscured the path to a potential resolution of the crisis. The true state of the Iranian regime remains an enigma, particularly in light of a mysterious statement by US President Donald Trump at the end of the week, suggesting that “a change of regime may have already effectively taken place,” while the fate of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remains unknown. The American president, through his multiple statements, has contributed to making the landscape even more opaque, even as he continues to play the confidence card and he and his collaborators repeatedly assure that the end of the conflict is a matter of weeks. Negotiations were a major topic this week: it began with a five-day reprieve granted by Trump to the Iranians after a weekend of threats against their energy infrastructure. The Friday deadline had not yet arrived when an extension of this deadline was announced, until April 6. In the meantime, a list of 15 American demands addressed to the Iranians was revealed in credible media, mainly comprising conditions on the cessation of Iranian nuclear development and ballistic missile programs, and the end of support for Tehran's proxies in the region, such as Lebanese Hezbollah, Iraqi Hashed al-Shaabi, or Yemeni Houthis. The Iranians responded with a list of six points, notably concerning the condition of a prior ceasefire for negotiations and obtaining guarantees for a total cessation of the war. Despite multiple Iranian denials regarding ongoing talks, efforts by the prospective mediator, Pakistan, and other mediators, such as Egypt, are reported in the media, which would explain the new American reprieve. Nevertheless, the pace of the war has not decreased. Israeli-American strikes continued forcefully against the Iranian regime's infrastructure: at the end of the week, Israeli planes bombed nuclear sites. On the other hand, the prospect of a US ground military intervention is also becoming clearer, and plans for taking Iranian islands are also being discussed in the media. Ukrainian experts A new ally in the war against Iran has joined the efforts: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thus dispatched experts specialized in drone interception to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. For its part, the Iranian side shows no visible signs of weakening in its attacks against the Gulf countries as well as against Israel. Furthermore, the Revolutionary Guards, who seem to occupy an increasingly central place in the regime, took measures this week to completely close the Strait of Hormuz to more sustainably impact the global economy through rising oil prices. In short, the war seems to be expanding, not only in the intensity of strikes but also geographically. Iraqi territory is more frequently targeted by strikes, and pro-Iranian militias are increasingly active there. The US embassy in Baghdad is regularly targeted and was hit again this weekend. However, the most dramatic development this week will have been the entry into the war of an Iranian ally, silent until now, the Yemeni Houthis. Late Friday, they announced that if the strikes continued in Iran, they would open their front, even threatening to close another crucial strait, that of Bab el-Mandeb, and to paralyze navigation in the Red Sea, as they already did during the conflict in Gaza and Lebanon in 2024. Indeed, early Saturday, the first Yemeni missiles were heading towards southern Israel. The intervention of the pro-Iranian Yemeni militia at this precise moment would reinforce the efforts of the Revolutionary Guards to maintain economic pressure, parallel to the tightening noose against the Iranian interior. Economic repercussions and G7 This Iranian card of the Houthi rebels is being played at a time when the economic repercussions of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are worsening. The price of oil has exceeded 100 dollars, and populations and economic sectors worldwide are already feeling the effects. This issue was at the center of the G7 Foreign Ministers' meeting in France this week. The official communiqué from this meeting emphasized the need to stop firing on civilians and to work towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Behind the scenes, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who was making his first trip abroad since the start of the war on February 28, was questioned by his counterparts about the prospects of the conflict. He himself told journalists that he would urge them to participate in efforts to reopen Hormuz. The war against the Iranian regime has caused tension in the Western camp in recent days: Europe's refusal to get involved is a source of dissatisfaction for the American president, who hinted, in a statement at the end of the week, that his country might no longer stand by the countries of the Atlantic Alliance after the end of the conflict… Israeli incursion into South Lebanon from the Golan Meanwhile, the situation in Lebanon is becoming more complicated day by day. Israeli advances in South Lebanon are becoming clearer, with confirmed reports of an Israeli infiltration of several kilometers into Lebanese territory and the beginning of occupation of several strategic points. The major new development on Sunday morning in this regard is the infiltration of Israeli soldiers into the South from the Golan, specifically Mount Hermon, a territory occupied by the Israelis in 2024. This military development is clearly aimed at further encircling Hezbollah militants in South Lebanon, as an extension of operations carried out by the Israeli army in regions such as Khiam, Bint Jbeil, or Naqoura. Meanwhile, this conflict is becoming increasingly bloody in Lebanon, where the civilian death toll exceeded 1100 this week. Hezbollah still does not communicate on its human losses, but the Israeli army speaks of hundreds killed (no fewer than 800), not counting militants captured and taken to Israel. It also reported killed and wounded in its ranks. A mysterious episode occurred this week in the sky of a region previously spared, that of Kesrouan, north of Beirut. On Tuesday, loud explosions were heard over Jounieh, the district capital, with debris falling on homes without causing casualties. The only certainty is that the missile is Iranian, but from where was it launched and what was its final destination? The most plausible option is that it was destroyed over Kesrouan by an interceptor missile, probably fired from the sea. Among the possible destinations mentioned are the US embassy in Awkar, or Hamate airport, in northern Lebanon, where there is an American presence. “Congress for the Salvation of Lebanon” in Meerab The most important political development this week in Lebanon was purely political. The decision taken on Tuesday, March 24, by the Lebanese state to withdraw the accreditation of Iran's ambassador Mohammad Reza Shibani and expel him from the territory, while recalling the head of the Lebanese diplomatic mission in Tehran. Shibani had been appointed in mid-February and had not yet presented his credentials to the President of the Republic. The decision, announced by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs based on consultations with the President of the Republic and the Prime Minister, is due to Iranian interference in Lebanese affairs, which notably led to this new war initiated on March 2 by the pro-Iranian militia, whose military activity was rendered illegal by a government decision taken on March 2. Unsurprisingly, this decision provoked the ire of the Shiite duo, Amal and Hezbollah, whose ministers did not participate in the last cabinet meeting on Thursday. As of this Sunday, March 29, the ambassador is persona non grata in Lebanon and could even be arrested by any security agent. Will the Iranians and their Lebanese allies choose confrontation by advocating for the maintenance of this “diplomat” in Lebanon? This seems to be the case. But the Shiite parties have proven that despite their prominent position in this matter, they did not wish for the implosion of the government. On the Iranian side, no explicit reaction, but certain signs to decipher. On Friday, the day after the Lebanese cabinet meeting, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called the Parliament Speaker (and head of Amal) Nabih Berry, to “express solidarity with Lebanon against Israeli aggression.” No further details are known about the content of the phone conversation between the two men. On the same day, the Revolutionary Guards published a strange document on their Telegram account, an obituary for six Iranian “diplomats” assassinated by Israel during a raid, four of whom were killed simultaneously in a hotel room in Beirut… The notice presents them dressed in military uniform indicating their rank within the Guards corps! The other important political development this week was the holding of large political gatherings at the Lebanese Forces headquarters in Meerab, Kesrouan. Many Christian figures from the LF and Kataeb, independents, as well as Sunni and Shiite personalities known for their opposition to Hezbollah, participated. The main points of the communiqué published at the end of these meetings concerned the demand for the creation of a special tribunal that would be responsible for judging those who dragged Lebanon into the war against the will of the state and the overwhelming majority of Lebanese, as well as the demand for compensation from Iran for the losses suffered during this war. On the sidelines of this meeting, the LF president declared to the Lebanese online media “Houna Loubnane” that “no budget drawn from the Lebanese Treasury will be disbursed to finance the consequences of this war, both in terms of displaced persons and reconstruction,” due to the fact that those who provoked this new armed conflict, without consulting anyone, must bear the financial repercussions, and not the state which was presented with a fait accompli on this matter.

The death of the strongman of the Iranian regime, Ali Larijani, on Tuesday, March 17, and that of several other high-ranking officials and senior executives of the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij, has not reduced the regime's involvement in the conflict, as it has just launched ballistic missiles for the first time outside the Middle East, towards Diego Garcia, 4000 kilometers away, and targeted Dimona, in southern Israel on Saturday evening. In Lebanon, it is on the Southern front that fighting is raging. The third week of the confrontation between the powerful American and Israeli armies on one side, and the Iranian regime on the other, was as full of twists and turns as the previous ones, and the state in which the Iranian regime now finds itself is more precarious than ever, even if its strike force remains not insignificant. The regime indeed lost this week, specifically on March 17, its main central figure since the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28, in the person of its powerful security chief Ali Larijani, one of the most experienced Iranian political figures, considered the strongman of the regime. He was killed during an Israeli strike against an apartment in Tehran where he had just arrived, accompanied by his son and other regime officials. A targeted assassination that was followed by that of other officials of the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij, the repressive police under the supervision of the Pasdaran. Larijani's death, who had held the reins of power since the disappearance of the Supreme Leader, raised many questions about the regime's current leadership, especially since Ali Khamenei's successor, who is none other than his son Mojtaba Khamenei, has still not made a public appearance and his fate remains unknown. Wounded during the same strike that killed his father, many members of his family, and some forty senior regime officials, the new Supreme Leader is reportedly alive, according to a report by American secret services published in international media this week. The new Leader published a second message on Friday, in which he raised his tone and declared that "the enemy has been defeated." Militarily, Iran continues to show significant capabilities despite the destruction on its soil, with unprecedented attacks at the end of the week, which constitute a turning point in the war. Two intermediate-range ballistic missiles were thus launched towards the American-British base of Diego Garcia, on an island in the Indian Ocean more than 4000 kilometers from Iranian soil, and from which fighter jets depart on missions in Iran. Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir stated that this launch demonstrates the Iranians' ability to threaten European capitals. The other new military threat that emerged this week involves nuclear facilities: after Israeli-American strikes on the Natanz site in Iran, it was the turn of the city of Dimona in southern Israel, which houses a nuclear facility, to be targeted by Iranian missiles. The strike, which resulted in over 170 injured (in Dimona and Arad), did not cause an abnormal level of radioactivity in that area, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Do these attacks foreshadow a new phase of the conflict? Over the past week, the Strait of Hormuz and its closure to oil tankers continued to be a central concern. U.S. President Donald Trump ended the week with a threat to annihilate Iran's energy facilities if the Strait was not opened within 48 hours, which led to new Iranian threats against American facilities in the region. An Axios report two days earlier had mentioned a potential American plan to occupy the important island of Kharg, crucial for Iranian hydrocarbon exports, in order to pressure for the reopening of the Strait. This week, the American president blew hot and cold regarding intervention in Iran, sometimes stating, in a declaration on Friday, that he wanted to reduce the intensity of the war because its objectives had been met "weeks in advance," and other times threatening escalation, without being willing to negotiate with the Iranians. Meanwhile, the American army is expected to deploy 2000 new soldiers to the Middle East, according to official Reuters sources. For his part, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made multiple statements this week, with the central idea being that the Iranians are not willing to negotiate a simple ceasefire, but a definitive end to the war. The Restructuring of Hezbollah by Iran Meanwhile, there has been no lull on the South Lebanon front, opened by Hezbollah against Israel, and which is the scene of numerous coordinated attacks between the party's militiamen and the Iranians. After an inflamed night between Tuesday and Wednesday during which the heart of the capital Beirut was targeted without prior warnings, which is a sign of targeted Israeli assassinations, and some sporadic attacks on the southern suburbs now emptied of their inhabitants, it seems that the bulk of the confrontation is now taking place on the ground in South Lebanon, at the border, between fighters from both camps. The names of the villages of Khiam and Tibé, in Marjayoun, were back in the media all week, as was Naqoura, in the Tyre region, which has just been incorporated into the front. Throughout the week, Hezbollah communicated extensively about its "attacks" against "enemy soldiers," both within Lebanese territory and in Israeli territory. The party remains silent about its own human losses, even as the Israeli army claims to have killed more than 500 Hezbollah militiamen. On the other hand, the extent of Israeli advances on Lebanese soil remains unknown. Officially, Israel approved new battle plans for Lebanon at the end of the week. This week was also marked by the publication of a report, mentioned by Reuters on March 21, on the restructuring of Hezbollah by the Revolutionary Guards since the signing of the ceasefire on November 27, 2024, and the end of the previous conflict, which demonstrates the futility of efforts to disarm the militia. Indeed, this highly documented report shows how, after the party's debacle during this conflict and the assassination of its historical leader in September 2024, the Iranians invested in restructuring the Shiite formation by secretly sending a hundred military officials to Lebanon. The Hezbollah fighting today would therefore be radically different from that of recent years. Its troops would be divided into smaller, autonomous groups on the ground, relying much less on communication among themselves. Dismantling of networks in Kuwait and the UAE Politically, Hezbollah remains very isolated on the internal scene, just as Iran is on the regional scene. A meeting of the foreign ministers of Arab and Islamic countries in the Saudi capital on Thursday resulted in a strongly worded communiqué on the right to self-defense of the Gulf States, which have been bombed by the Iranians since day one. Lebanon, through its Foreign Minister Joe Raggi, reaffirmed the importance of the Lebanese proposal for direct negotiations with Israel. This proposal, launched by Lebanese President Joseph Aoun since the opening of this new front on March 2, remains hampered by Israeli refusal on one hand, and Lebanese Shiite parties on the other, despite French efforts this week. France, which dispatched its Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot to Beirut and then to Tel Aviv, has apparently been unable to make any breakthrough so far. The official Lebanese position was reiterated by Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam during a widely noted interview with CNN on Thursday, during which he called on the American president to intervene to encourage direct negotiations and end a war in Lebanon that has already resulted in over 1000 civilian deaths. This week also saw the dismantling of Hezbollah networks in Kuwait and then in the United Arab Emirates, which, according to these countries, were preparing to carry out "terrorist operations" on their soil. The Lebanese position is significant in this regard: despite Hezbollah's denial of any involvement in these two countries, Lebanese authorities, through President Joseph Aoun, condemned these actions, reaffirming official Lebanese support for the two Gulf States. However, Lebanese statements sound increasingly hollow, even as the war initiative remains in the hands of a militia whose presence has been declared outlawed by the Lebanese government since March 2; but the pro-Iranian party clearly doesn't care. The growing aggressiveness of Hezbollah's statements, including the particularly virulent one from the party's political council vice-president Mahmoud Comati, who threatened "traitors" with retaliation after the war, shows a hardening of the party's line, as well as a widening of divisions among Lebanese. And this, while more than a million South Lebanese are currently being cared for in different Lebanese regions.

In Iran, the fate of the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is in question, and a highly strategic Iranian island has been targeted by US aviation. On the Lebanese front, Israel continues its ground offensive despite some diplomatic breakthroughs in recent days around the idea of direct negotiations with Israel, launched by the Lebanese government; a proposal that remains dependent on the situation on the ground. For the second consecutive week, the Middle East is living as if in fast forward. The attack on Iran by the Israeli and American armies continues, with intensive bombings reaching, on March 14, the highly strategic Iranian island of Kharg, north of the Persian Gulf. This island houses large oil infrastructures that were intentionally spared by the Americans, while President Donald Trump indicated that military installations had been reduced to nothing. The attack on this island constitutes a fundamental development as it poses a potential threat to Iran's oil exports. For their part, the Iranians, especially through the voice of the Revolutionary Guards, have sought to demonstrate their dominance over the Strait of Hormuz, through which no less than 20% of the world's oil transits. They declared that they would prevent the passage of any oil tanker belonging to their “enemies,” in this case the United States and Israel and their allies, sparing the ships of countries like India, for example. The Iranians also threatened to mine the strait, which led to an American response that largely destroyed their naval capabilities. On March 14, Donald Trump called on countries affected by the dangers to their ships to send military vessels to escort oil tankers during their passage through this strait. What the Iranians will have succeeded in provoking is a global rise in oil prices, particularly detrimental to President Trump, a few months before the mid-term elections in the United States. But their own attacks against the Arab states of the Gulf and American interests in the region, as well as against Israel, have largely decreased in intensity. Could this be an exhaustion of their military capabilities in the face of the scale of the offensive (which, according to their enemies, destroyed a large part of their military production), or a tactical reduction in the use of their missiles and drones to hold on longer, with a visible intention to wear out their enemies and allow the mullahs' regime to survive? The other question that has preoccupied observers this week is the health of the new Iranian Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. Rumours about his health intensified during the week, and he progressively appeared, notably in reports from Israeli and American intelligence services cited in official statements, as having been seriously wounded during the strike that killed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and several members of his direct family, by an Israeli strike in Tehran on February 28, 2026, at the launch of the war. And what reinforced the rumors was the first message addressed to the Iranian nation by Mojtaba Khamenei on March 12, which was read by a presenter and in which the person concerned did not appear. A speech that largely echoes the messages of the very radical head of Iranian security, Ali Larijani. In any event, the wildest rumors circulate about him: he is said to be disfigured and/or to have had both legs amputated, he is said to be in a coma, he is even said to have died, he is said to have been transported to Russia for hospitalization… To be continued. Meanwhile in Lebanon The Lebanese front, meanwhile, has known no respite this week, quite the contrary. Coordinated attacks were noted between Hezbollah, whose fighters have largely returned to south of the Litani, and to the borders with Israel (if indeed they ever left) and attacks coming directly from Tehran. The party, whose activity was deemed illegal by the Lebanese government as early as March 2 without any effective action on the ground, even intensified its operations from Wednesday, March 11, launching a hundred rockets in a single attack that day. The big absentee from the conflict remains the Lebanese army. The other development on the ground is the increasingly marked ground incursion of Israeli soldiers into Lebanese territory. Fighting is taking place with Hezbollah militiamen in more than one sector, particularly around the highly strategic village of Khiam, in South Lebanon, with the possibility of an Israeli ground offensive becoming increasingly clear, notably in view of military reinforcements at the border. The most serious aspect for the Lebanese front is that it could last even beyond the war in Iran, as appeared in Israeli statements this week. Despite all of Hezbollah's propaganda efforts to justify its entry into the war, the balance of power remains more unequal than ever, as the pro-Iranian party's attacks have so far killed only two Israeli soldiers (according to Israeli army sources), and have caused no population movement in northern Israel. In contrast, in Lebanon, the civilian death toll is spiraling (over 800 already according to the Ministry of Health), and more than 800,000 displaced people have already sought refuge in areas deemed safer. The Lebanese government is trying to contain the movement with varying degrees of success, and international aid is starting to flow, but at a pace that remains limited so far. In this regard, it is worth noting the visit of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to Beirut this week, to express his “solidarity” with the Lebanese people. His calls for de-escalation are unlikely to be heeded by the belligerents. On the political level, the proposal for “direct negotiations” with Israel put forward by President Joseph Aoun remains embryonic, although it gained ground at the end of the week. Having faced American and Israeli silence in the first few days, this proposal received the support of French President Emmanuel Macron at the end of the week, and there is already talk of a possibility that such negotiations could be held in the future in Cyprus or Paris. The Quai d’Orsay, however, denied on Saturday having drawn up a peace plan between Lebanon and Israel. On the Lebanese side, there is already talk of forming the committee that will be in charge of negotiations, with names circulating, such as that of researcher Paul Salem for example. However, an important unknown remains, that of a possible Shiite name, a point that Parliament Speaker Nabih Berry refuses to decide for the moment, especially as he seeks to impose the condition of a ceasefire before the talks. Hezbollah itself, through its Secretary General Naim Kassem, in a speech on Friday, asked the Lebanese government “not to make gratuitous concessions” to Israel. On the Israeli side, the main development is that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has entrusted former minister Ron Dermer with the Lebanese dossier. Until further notice, however, the final word will depend on the results of developments on the ground.

From the kickoff, on February 28, of the Israeli-American offensive against the Iranian mullahs' regime, marked by the assassination of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic Ali Khamenei, until the flare-up of the South Lebanon front, at dawn on the 1 st March, including Iranian strikes on all Arab Gulf countries, the first week of the new Middle East war is undoubtedly historic in more ways than one. There are years that can be summarized in a few words, and weeks that seem like years. The days from January 28 to March 8, 2026, have been so full of twists and turns that they could be described as a transition from one era to another. The starting point was the predictable launch of Israeli-American strikes against the Iranian regime, after the failure of negotiations on the nuclear file, the long-range ballistic missile program, and the fate of the regional outposts of the Pasdaran, particularly Lebanese Hezbollah. The rest was a succession of surprises, as if the attack on Iran had opened Pandora's box. The first surprise came from the precision of the Israeli strikes on Saturday morning, February 28, which led, as would be announced hours later, to the successful assassination of the Supreme Leader of the Iranian Revolution, Ali Khamenei, the true spiritual and political head of that country, along with about forty high-ranking Iranian officials and senior executives, including the Minister of Defense, the head of the Pasdaran, the head of Intelligence, and Khamenei's closest advisor. To what extent did this first blow, and the initial American-Israeli bombardments on Iranian territory, destabilize that country? In retaliation, the regime surprised everyone by directing its ballistic missiles not only against Israel or American bases in the region, as would have been predictable, but especially towards the Arab Gulf states, hitherto considered symbols of security and stability. Aggressions against Gulf countries Daily, since the beginning of this war, the civilian infrastructures of Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and even the Sultanate of Oman, despite being a privileged intermediary in Iranian-American negotiations, have been pounded by missiles from the Revolutionary Guard. For eight days, their airports have been almost closed, and their legendary internal security has been flouted, despite the interception of the vast majority of Iranian missiles and drones launched against their territory. And even when Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian resolved to « apologize » to these countries for the damage caused, eight days after the outbreak of the conflict, promising them the « suspension » of strikes against them, the firings continued the same day, suggesting either a tactical, purely cosmetic conciliatory stance from the Iranians, or a beginning of the regime's erosion between the hardline wing represented by the Pasdaran, and a supposedly more moderate political authority. In any case, another sign of the weakening of the Iranian regime has been the delay in designating a successor to Khamenei during the last eight days, knowing that the Revolutionary Guard is seeking to impose the candidacy of the assassinated Leader's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, whose designation is rejected by the Americans. The Israelis, for their part, continue to oppose any election of a new Leader: after striking the meeting place of the Iranian Council of Experts tasked with this mission for the first time, the Israeli army, through its Arabic-speaking spokesperson, Avichay Adraee, once again threatened this council with a new targeting in case of a meeting for the vote, which would be « imminent ». In any event, this first week of the conflict ended on the night of March 7-8 with a « qualitative » escalation, namely the bombing of four fuel depots on the outskirts of Tehran, which caused massive fires all around the capital. The opening of the front in Lebanon The other major surprise was the reopening by Hezbollah of the South Lebanon front. This initiative, suicidal in every sense of the word, came at the express request of the Pasdaran. In what constituted a declaration of war against Israel, the pro-Iranian party thus launched Katyusha rockets against Israeli territory on the night of the 1 st to March 2, nearly 48 hours after the start of the American-Israeli offensive and less than two and a half years after the « support war » in Gaza, on October 8, 2023, from which the country has not yet recovered. Incredulous, the Lebanese once again found themselves mired in a vicious cycle of violence, destructive bombings, and the exodus of residents from entire regions in South Lebanon, the southern suburbs of Beirut, and North Bekaa. Hezbollah, for its part, continues its daily attacks towards northern Israel, employing rockets and drones. It even launched drones against a British base on the peaceful island of Cyprus. Israeli Merkava tanks on the Lebanese border. After this new front opened from an exhausted country, undermined by the economic crisis and the consequences of a very recent war, even the fiercest defenders of Hezbollah's « Lebaneseness » (!) had to revise their theories. Because this party, which continued to suffer, without reacting, targeted Israeli assassinations despite the ceasefire of November 27, 2024, only retaliated to the assassination of the Supreme Leader of the Iranian Revolution, which was unanimously perceived as a clear response to an order from the Iranian « sponsor ». Israeli threats This decision caught the entire Lebanese political class by surprise, including the ally of the pro-Iranian party, the head of the Amal movement and Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, Nabih Berry. President Joseph Aoun and the government of Nawaf Salam clearly positioned themselves against this unilateral decision by Hezbollah, declaring all its military activities « illegal » and enjoining it to hand over its weapons, as stated in a resolution of the Council of Ministers, dated Monday, March 2. However, this unprecedented decision by the Lebanese authorities, whose implementation was entrusted to the Lebanese army (previously tasked with disarming the south of the Litani, with the well-known success), did not shield the government from internal criticism or Israeli threats, in the face of the return of Hezbollah fighters to the borders. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz on Saturday threatened Lebanon with a heavy price to pay if it failed to disarm this party. In any case, this new conflict seems different from the one that preceded it: the Israeli army occupies even larger areas, it even carried out a helicopter landing in a village in the Bekaa on Saturday, March 7, and the entire region south of the Litani is now evacuated by its inhabitants, as well as the southern suburbs of Beirut. Among the targeted assassinations, several have targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard officials, including in Mount Lebanon and Beirut, regions considered « safe.» The outcome of this new bloody episode is more uncertain than ever. The Iranian regime has decided to sow chaos, and to once again sacrifice countries like Iraq, and, above all, Lebanon, as well as its relations with neighboring countries, from the Arab Gulf to Azerbaijan and Cyprus. What will the Middle East look like after this explosive episode? Without a doubt, this conflict will play the role of an accelerator of history.