Weekly essentials

Between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, the statements reflected a positive atmosphere, but the underlying realities of this summit between giants should become clearer over time. Iran, for its part, continues its provocations. Between Lebanon and Israel, an extension of the truce and future military cooperation. This week was marked by crucial talks whose repercussions will be felt during the next phase. From the very beginning of the week, attention was focused on preparations for the US-China summit in Beijing and the third round of negotiations between the Lebanese and Israeli delegations in Washington.

The world is once again holding its breath as it awaits President Donald Trump's decision in response to Iran's counter-proposal (which he deemed 'totally unacceptable' on Sunday) to his conditions for resuming negotiations over an agreement aimed at bringing the war to a lasting end. Through its Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Baghaei, Iran stated Monday that it had merely 'demanded an end to hostilities across the region and the unfreezing of its assets.' Ismail Baghaei, responding to Donald Trump's rejection of Iran's response, claimed that 'the only thing required is Iran's legitimate rights'—namely, 'an end to the war in the region, including Lebanon, the lifting of the American blockade on Iranian ports, and the release of Iranian assets that have been unjustly frozen for years.'

The past week in the Middle East was marked by maintaining a fragile balance while waiting for a major event in the next one: U.S. President Donald Trump's visit to China. The world's second superpower has yet to have its say in the conflict between its ally and one of its main energy suppliers, Iran, against its primary global rival. In any case, another ally—that of the Americans—once again made headlines: the Israeli prime minister ruled that the 'war is not over' as long as there are 'still nuclear materials—enriched uranium—that must be removed from Iran' and 'enrichment sites to dismantle,' Benjamin Netanyahu told American broadcaster CBS.

The past week can be characterized by procrastination in the US-Iran negotiations, where no major breakthrough was observed despite two Iranian proposals that the Pakistani mediator forwarded to the United States. Until then, many analysts argued that Iran was playing the time card, through the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, against a Donald Trump who would be in a hurry to end the war, before having to answer to Congress after 60 days of war, as required by the US Constitution. But since then, there has been a turnaround: it is the American blockade on Iranian ports that is putting pressure on Tehran. The consequences are visible in the very significant devaluation of its national currency and an economic collapse that the Iranian authorities can hardly hide, despite their triumphant rhetoric.

The negotiations between Iranians and Americans, which are in limbo after this long week of back-and-forth in Islamabad, were overshadowed Sunday morning (Levant time) by the news of a failed assassination attempt on US President Donald Trump at the White House Correspondents' Dinner. President Trump, in an initial gut reaction, indicated he did not know whether the war in Iran is linked to this assassination attempt. The White House Correspondents' Association dinner, an annual tradition, was expected to unfold peacefully in the presence of President Donald Trump, members of his administration, and numerous political figures. But a (new) assassination attempt against the most powerful man in the world took place in this prestigious, highly secure environment of the Washington Hilton. A man armed with 'multiple weapons', according to initial reports, was able to bypass all security barriers to approach the hall where practically all the country's top leaders were gathered, and open fire.

Direct Lebanese-Israeli negotiations, unprecedented since 1983; a precarious ceasefire in South Lebanon; the Strait of Hormuz still at the center of Iranian-American tensions; a summary of an eventful week in the Middle East ending with two crucial developments. The past week ended this Sunday, April 19, with a double announcement of the highest importance. In a firm tone that contrasts with his traditional statements, President Donald Trump indicated Sunday afternoon (Levant time) that his representatives would travel to Islamabad Monday evening for a final round of talks on Tuesday, during which the Iranian regime would have to endorse a 'very fair and reasonable' agreement proposed by Washington. Failing that, the White House chief affirmed, the US army 'will destroy every power plant and every bridge'.

Between April 5 and 12, the past week has been particularly rich in events in the Middle East. It concluded on Sunday, April 12, at dawn, with the announcement of the failure of negotiations between the United States and Iran in Islamabad, while mid-week, Israel gave its approval for direct negotiations with Lebanon, scheduled for Tuesday, April 14, in Washington. On April 8, the Israeli air force launched a massive attack – about a hundred raids in 10 minutes – against Hezbollah leaders and positions in several districts of Beirut, as well as in the Beqaa and South Lebanon. April 5 had been primarily marked by statements made by President Donald Trump, who had issued serious threats against the Iranian regime, ordering it to end the obstacles it placed in the way of free maritime navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump had given Iran an ultimatum that expired on Tuesday evening, April 7. While everything indicated, during the weekend of April 4-5, that escalation was hardly avoidable, the surprise came a few hours before the end of the ultimatum. A two-week truce was proclaimed, and negotiations were set for Saturday, April 11, in Islamabad, with a view to a settlement between the United States and Iran, focusing notably on the Strait of Hormuz.

The week that has just passed in the Middle East has been a crescendo of rhetoric and military action, culminating this Monday, April 6, in the end of the ultimatum issued by Donald Trump to the mullahs' regime, with the White House chief threatening to “annihilate” Iran's energy facilities. A week during which the American president was anything but stingy with declarations, the apotheosis having been reached on Saturday, when he gave the leaders in Tehran 48 hours to endorse the agreement he presented to them, failing which “hell” would descend upon them. Donald Trump asks them to “conclude a deal or open the Strait of Hormuz,” referring to negotiations based on the 15 points put forward by the Americans, which mainly concern the abandonment of nuclear and ballistic programs, as well as the cessation of funding for regional allies such as Hezbollah.

The past week, the fourth since the start of the conflict between Israel and the United States on one side, and Iran on the other, has further obscured the path to a potential resolution of the crisis. The true state of the Iranian regime remains an enigma, particularly in light of a mysterious statement by US President Donald Trump at the end of the week, suggesting that “a change of regime may have already effectively taken place,” while the fate of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remains unknown. The American president, through his multiple statements, has contributed to making the landscape even more opaque, even as he continues to play the confidence card and he and his collaborators repeatedly assure that the end of the conflict is a matter of weeks.

The death of the strongman of the Iranian regime, Ali Larijani, on Tuesday, March 17, and that of several other high-ranking officials and senior executives of the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij, has not reduced the regime's involvement in the conflict, as it has just launched ballistic missiles for the first time outside the Middle East, towards Diego Garcia, 4000 kilometers away, and targeted Dimona, in southern Israel on Saturday evening. In Lebanon, it is on the Southern front that fighting is raging. The third week of the confrontation between the powerful American and Israeli armies on one side, and the Iranian regime on the other, was as full of twists and turns as the previous ones, and the state in which the Iranian regime now finds itself is more precarious than ever, even if its strike force remains not insignificant.