Weekly essentials

The past week came to a close on Sunday with two undeniably significant developments. The first was Prime Minister Nawaf Salam's visit to Baghdad, where he held talks with Iraqi leaders focused primarily on economic matters. Accompanied by Energy Minister Joe Saddi, the prime minister discussed with his Iraqi counterpart the possibility of including the Tripoli refinery in the reactivation of the oil pipeline linking Iraq to Syria, with a view to exporting Iraqi oil. An agreement to that effect was signed between Syria and Iraq just days ago, and the Lebanese government is seeking to revive the Tripoli refinery's role in this context.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun arrived in Washington on Saturday, ahead of a scheduled meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday. On the regional front, the United States intensified its strikes throughout the past week against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) positions and infrastructure, prompting retaliatory attacks by the latter against Gulf countries (!), while the Iranian-backed Houthi militia in Yemen once again entered the fray. As the week drew to a close, attention in Lebanon was firmly fixed on the long-awaited visit of President Joseph Aoun to Washington. The head of state, who arrived in the U.S. capital on Saturday accompanied by his wife and advisors, held a meeting on Sunday afternoon (Beirut time) at the State Department with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. He is set to meet with several other U.S. officials before his appointment on Tuesday with President Donald Trump at the White House.

Tensions have been rising since the beginning of the week between Washington and Tehran following new Iranian strikes on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The negotiation process is not dead, but appears weakened. Hezbollah, for its part, is threatening to re-engage in southern Lebanon if war breaks out again, as attention turns to Lebanese-Israeli talks scheduled for next week in Rome. On Sunday morning, U.S. forces announced they had carried out, overnight, a third wave of strikes targeting more than 140 sites in Iran, in retaliation for a new attack by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on a commercial vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Following the U.S. raids, the IRGC wasted no time in launching — and expanding, as is their custom — attacks against several Gulf countries, specifically Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Kuwait… as well as Jordan, a country that Iran added to its list of potential targets amid the escalation of recent days. Even the Omani mediator was not spared. The attack on the Sultanate of Oman came just hours after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's visit to the sultanate!

The past week gives a vague sense that fire is smoldering beneath the ashes. Tensions between the Americans and Iranians persist; they are erupting openly within the mullah regime itself, and in Lebanon, Israeli ceasefire violations continue without, for now, drawing a response from Hezbollah. Days of waiting, almost of a standstill, defined the past week. It was less eventful than the weeks that have followed one another since the start of the war in Iran and the opening of the parallel Lebanese front, yet it remains no less significant. Cracks are appearing here and there — not only in the memorandum of understanding signed between the Americans and Iranians, but within the Iranian regime itself.

After the displays of joy and goodwill following its supposed "victory" against the Israeli-American camp, the pro-Iranian axis quickly bared its teeth when confronted with ground realities, as revealed by the chain of events since the signing of the memorandum of understanding between Tehran and Washington on June 18, followed by the agreement between Beirut and Tel Aviv on June 26. Iran, which believed it could call the shots after successfully getting its key priorities included in the text of the agreement with Washington, quickly revealed the limits of the "goodwill" it had touted throughout the negotiations that led to the signing of the document presented as a prelude to a regional peace deal.

Lebanon was at the center of talks on Sunday between Iran and the United States in Switzerland. While Tehran claimed to have closed the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. Vice President JD Vance delivered remarks in an upbeat tone, President Donald Trump responded to the strait's closure with threats against Iran, prompting the Iranian negotiators to suspend the discussions. As for Lebanon, all eyes are on the direct negotiations with Israel, which have drawn the ire of Hezbollah. Sunday, June 21: the start of U.S.-Iran talks in Lucerne, Switzerland. The American delegation was led by Vice President JD Vance, and the Iranian delegation by Parliament Speaker Mohammed Ghalibaf. After a false start — the talks had originally been scheduled for Friday at the same venue — they finally got underway two days later. They were far from smooth, once again laying bare the deep divisions between the former adversaries.

A heavy, anxiety-filled suspense gripped the entire day and evening of this Sunday, June 14, which was supposed to be marked by the virtual, online signing of the framework agreement (or memorandum of understanding) intended to "suspend" hostilities between the United States and Iran for a period of 60 days, with the aim of launching a negotiation process over the dispute — nuclear, ballistic, financial, and geopolitical — with the Islamic Republic. Over the past 48 hours, both President Donald Trump and the Pakistani Prime Minister repeatedly and insistently affirmed that the framework agreement would indeed be signed on Sunday. The signing was expected to take place "virtually," in the presence of U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Qalibaf. Yet well into the late evening (Levant time), the ceremony planned for this purpose had still not taken place. Two factors accounted for the delay: internal Iranian disagreements and a military escalation on the Lebanese front.

As negotiations on the American-Iranian front stall and security incidents multiply in the Gulf, Lebanese authorities stand out with a clearly sovereigntist strategic vision, while at the same time a military escalation occurred at the end of the week with a bombing of the southern suburb and an Iranian threat against Israel. "Lebanon is our country, not yours." These words spoken by Lebanese President Joseph Aoun during a widely-followed interview with CNN's renowned journalist Christiane Amanpour on Friday not only marked the week that just ended in Lebanon, but certainly reinforce the trend toward a clear shift in official discourse in the direction of the sovereigntist message that was central to the head of state's inauguration speech.

The past week was marked by failed attempts to reach an agreement protocol between Washington and Tehran, amid contradictory statements. Between Lebanon and Israel, a clear military escalation was recorded on the ground, accompanied by significant Israeli advances that reportedly crossed the Litani River. The recent days in the Middle East have been characterized by a statement made by U.S. President Donald Trump the previous weekend about the imminent conclusion of an agreement protocol between the United States and Iran, which would pave the way for 60 additional days of negotiations and allow for lifting the blockade on Iranian ports and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Yet the optimism displayed by the American president on more than one occasion has had no effect: the week ends without any notable progress, and all options remain on the table, including another round of violence.

The first draft of the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran that was leaked to the press and media on Saturday evening sparked widespread outrage on Sunday. Many Republican senators, including several heavyweight members of Congress, as well as analysts, commentators, and influential circles warned against the serious geopolitical consequences of this proposal. Some did not hesitate to denounce on social media what they unanimously called a 'capitulation of the United States to the Islamic Republic of Iran'. Did this outcry and these warnings coming from all sides online push President Trump to apply serious brakes to the approval process for the memorandum, or did the White House chief realize that certain clauses were indeed unacceptable and detrimental to the credibility of the United States as a superpower?