From Yemen to Lebanon: Iran Wages a Covert Proxy War

Rather than attacking American or Israeli interests head-on, the Iranian regime appears to be pushing its proxies toward confrontation elsewhere: the Houthis with Saudi Arabia, and Hezbollah with domestic opponents in Lebanon.

Iran’s proxies in the region are increasingly going on the offensive, but not against their usual enemies, the United States and Israel.

With Israel’s parliamentary elections just days away and the US midterm elections a few weeks off, the Iranian front around the Strait of Hormuz is (more or less) quiet, while in southern Lebanon, the Israeli military continues its attacks without resistance from Hezbollah.

The same cannot be said of the Houthi-Saudi front or of internal tensions in Lebanon.

In Yemen, the past week has been marked by a flurry of developments and violence on the front between the Houthi rebels and the Saudi-led coalition.

So far, the Houthis have managed to sustain both their ground offensive in Yemen and their attacks on civilian targets in Saudi Arabia. They have continued advancing toward the city of Taiz in the country’s southwest, despite gains made by government forces during the opening days of Operation “Dawn of Yemen.”

Against this backdrop, a significant development came this week with the announcement that Egypt’s parliament would meet on Sunday at the request of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who is asking lawmakers to approve intervention against the Houthis to defend the kingdom should it request assistance. Egypt is not a party to the Mecca Agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey last August, and its president is unlikely to have taken this initiative without knowing that such an intervention was highly likely.

Although the meeting did take place, however, the discussion was postponed until the following day so that “all lawmakers could have their say,” an Egyptian parliamentarian told AFP.

The move also shows that Riyadh does not intend to rely solely on the mutual defense agreement to counter the Houthi threat.

Anyone who still doubts that this Yemeni ally is being directed from Tehran should read an article published on Saturday in The Wall Street Journal. It details how Iran supports the Houthis in maximizing the impact of their strikes against Saudi Arabia, supplying the intelligence they need to identify targets and cause as much damage and disruption as possible.

The newspaper’s sources add that this remote assistance has enabled the Houthis to make rapid gains on the ground in Yemen, with an objective of major importance to Iran: control of another strait, Bab el-Mandeb.

In this context, it is worth noting a statement made on Sunday by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, calling on “the United States to accept Iran’s conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.” That same day, US Vice President JD Vance reiterated that the conflict would end only with a firm commitment from Tehran to abandon its nuclear program and any future enrichment capability.

Lebanese-Israeli negotiations

Like Iran’s Yemeni ally, Hezbollah in Lebanon is turning against domestic opponents rather than confronting Israel.

This week, the party pushed back over the case involving two of its members transporting tons of explosives from the Bekaa Valley to Beirut, a scandal that broke the previous week.

After initially remaining silent, the party ultimately openly acknowledged responsibility through MP Hassan Fadlallah. He even threatened a “shift in the balance of power in the country.”

The militia-party did not stop at acknowledging responsibility; it demanded the release of its members and… the return of its explosives. Mr. Fadlallah did not explain why these tons of explosives were headed for Beirut rather than the south, but adamantly maintains that they are intended for the “resistance” against Israel.

Hezbollah supporters have also taken to the streets on several occasions, notably overnight from Friday into Saturday in Beirut’s southern suburbs. They also attacked security forces on Thursday when officers tried to shut down an illegal medicine warehouse belonging to one of the group’s officials.

In both cases, Lebanese security forces acted firmly. A change of course?

Whatever the case, other signs suggest that progress is being made toward sovereignty.

After being largely sidelined, Lebanese Foreign Minister Joe Raggi delivered a particularly scathing speech against Iranian interference in Lebanon on Sunday, during a meeting of ministers from the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation in Baghdad. He also made a point of condemning Israeli attacks in the south and firmly positioning Lebanon against Iranian and Houthi strikes on Gulf countries.

Meanwhile, on the sidelines of a meeting with a French delegation led by French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun announced that Lebanon plans to send a military delegation to the negotiating session with Israel scheduled for October 20 in Florida, to protest Israeli attacks in the south of the country.

The meeting has little chance of producing results, judging by a statement Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made on Sunday: he expressed a lack of confidence in the Lebanese government’s ability to disarm Hezbollah and said his army would remain in southern Lebanon until further notice.

All eyes will therefore be on next week’s session of three-way talks in Florida, scheduled exactly one week before the election in Israel, and on the standoff between Hezbollah and Lebanon’s legitimate authorities.