Israel: After the Vote, War?

Although Netanyahu surprised observers by keeping his party and bloc in the lead, he does not have the numbers to form a government on his own. Israel is heading toward a crisis, or at least a period of uncertainty, but in the meantime the current prime minister has a free hand to join the United States in any further strikes on Iran. And in Lebanon, another provocation by Hezbollah would open the gates of hell.

The last week of October was marked by Israel’s parliamentary elections, a landmark event this year.

Ahead of the next crucial vote—the US midterm elections next Tuesday—the final results in Israel already offer some indication of how the region’s wars may unfold, even if the outlook remains unclear.

Against all expectations, incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu strengthened his position, winning the most seats and pulling ahead of his opponents both with his party, Likud, and with his bloc, which secured 53 seats. His main rival, Gadi Eisenkot—whose outlook on the region is not radically different—won just 48 seats.

Neither Mr. Netanyahu nor his opponents can form a government alone, as both are well short of the 61 seats required. This is where the election’s other surprise comes in: record turnout among Arab Israelis, at over 80%. The two Arab parties won an unprecedented combined total of 19 seats. They have thus become indispensable players, but it is unclear whether Netanyahu’s Jewish opponents would accept such an alliance.

Although press reports suggest Eisenkot’s bloc is in talks with these Arab blocs, one of the leading figures in the new Israeli opposition to Netanyahu, Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the party Yisrael Beitenu, has already said that an alliance with the Arab parties is out of the question for him.

It should be noted in this regard that since the October 7, 2023 massacre carried out by Hamas in Gaza—which left more than 1,200 civilians dead in Israel—any alliance with the Palestinians has been deeply unpopular among Israelis.

Whatever happens, all possibilities remain open for the future of Israel’s government, and Israeli President Isaac Herzog will have to appoint a prime minister within the next few days.

Awaiting the midterms

In the meantime, the current prime minister remains in charge, and participation in another potential strike on Iran remains a strong possibility. Netanyahu might even seek out this new war as a way out of the impasse.

The possibility of another attack continues to feature prominently in statements by US President Donald Trump, alongside other signals such as the buildup of US forces in the Middle East and warnings issued to US citizens in several countries. This time, an attack would be coordinated with the Israelis, who were sidelined during the Islamabad negotiations.

On Sunday, the US president said his military still needed to deal with “one or two” nuclear sites, claiming it could do so “in ten minutes.” According to media sources, the most likely scenario would be a short, intense campaign.

“Negotiations” in Qatar

The door to negotiations is certainly not closed. This week, US Vice President JD Vance sent a proposal to the Iranian authorities in a letter addressed to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, aimed at establishing a new framework for negotiations to avert further military action against Tehran.

According to several news sources, the proposal’s key points would be a swift resumption of direct talks, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, and regular inspections of Iran’s nuclear program.

Iran’s response was, as usual, a mix of threats and flexibility on negotiations. On October 31, Iran’s supreme leader issued his “directives” for an “immediate, powerful response without geographical limits” to any Israeli-American attack. Responding to Trump, the Iranians also said the war “could last longer than the previous one.”

Nevertheless, the Iranians are keeping the path to negotiations open. Their negotiators were in Doha over the last three days of the week, trying to reach a draft agreement. But their statements show they are expecting the worst: Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country “is ready for both defense and diplomacy.”

A new occupation… all the way to Sidon?

And what about Lebanon? The possibility of Hezbollah becoming involved in another war continues to haunt the Lebanese. All the more so as relations between the militia and the state continue to deteriorate following the indictment of 15 party members in connection with the seizure of explosives being transported from the Bekaa Valley to Beirut about three weeks ago.

Against this backdrop, Israel’s threats are as intense as its military escalation. The scale of the threats against Lebanon was reflected in an article in the Israeli newspaper Maariv on Sunday morning: according to some sources, if Hezbollah takes part in any future war, the occupation could extend to Tyre, Nabatieh, and even Sidon!

Not to mention Beirut’s southern suburbs. According to the newspaper, strikes on Lebanese targets would be assigned to naval vessels, as the air force would be tied up with bombing operations in Iran.

With all these grim prospects looming, attention is turning to the US midterm elections and the race between peace efforts and preparations for war.