Escalation in Yemen; explosives seized in Lebanon: Iran reactivates its proxies

While the U.S.-Iran front remains more or less calm, two troubling signs marked the past week: the escalation on the Yemeni front and the seizure in Lebanon of a truck carrying explosives being transported by Hezbollah militiamen, which has raised fears of further suspected assassinations ordered by their Iranian patron.

With Israel’s legislative elections approaching on October 27, and as the war in the Middle East weighs increasingly heavily on the U.S. midterm elections due to take place in early November, violence persists in the region—openly or covertly—on several fronts.

Apart from occasional attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, the most worrying signs emerged elsewhere this week: in Saudi Arabia, where Houthi attacks are becoming increasingly deadly, and in Lebanon, where the arrest of pro-Iranian Hezbollah militiamen in possession of half a ton of explosives has revived fears of political assassinations.

At the center of these destabilizing actions is the Iranian regime, beleaguered but still standing, however precariously, trying by every means to survive while awaiting possible geopolitical shifts linked to the Israeli and U.S. electoral deadlines.

Deadly escalation in Yemen

The Yemeni front flared up even further this week, and violence has intensified since the Saudi-led coalition announced its active support for Yemeni government forces against the pro-Iranian Houthi rebels.

Operation “Dawn of Yemen,” backed by heavy air cover from more than a hundred fighter jets, enabled Yemeni forces to make significant advances, securing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait against the Houthi threat by retaking strategic towns occupied by the pro-Iranian militia during its September offensive.

Fighting is currently concentrated around the major city of Taiz, which remains under Houthi siege for the time being, and the ongoing war foreshadows a humanitarian catastrophe. The Yemeni capital, Sanaa, along with other major cities held by the Houthis since 2014, is being targeted by the air forces of the regular troops and the coalition.

What are the consequences of these developments on the ground? Yemen has once again descended into all-out war, with the collapse of the truce declared between the belligerents in 2022. The war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran at the end of February increasingly resembles a regional war.

Besides the Yemenis, the Saudis are suffering the most. Houthi attacks on the kingdom’s territory are becoming increasingly intense and deadly, focusing mainly on Saudi civilian infrastructure. The deadliest of these strikes took place late Saturday afternoon against King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, killing 12 people—four Saudis and eight expatriates—and injuring more than 300, some seriously. On Sunday, another strike on the same airport injured several people.

Saturday’s strike prompted a wave of international condemnations, most notably from U.S. President Donald Trump, who called it “unacceptable.” However, he remained vague about the possibility of U.S. involvement alongside the Saudis against the Houthis, saying that he was “reviewing the situation.” According to observers, the U.S. president remains cautious about opening a new front in this highly unpopular war, which polls indicate is already costing him valuable votes in the midterm elections.

In this context, the Saudis could rely on their alliance with Pakistan and Turkey under the Mecca Pact for mutual defense. Following a meeting earlier this week in the Saudi capital, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry reaffirmed on Sunday “Pakistan’s firm commitment to defending the security, sovereignty, territorial integrity and stability of the Kingdom,” according to the official Saudi press agency. This solidarity will need to be watched closely in the days ahead.

Explosives seized in Lebanon

As Iran’s Yemeni ally throws itself headlong into an undertaking clearly aimed at easing pressure on Iran, a far more insidious and worrying development has come to light in Lebanon, involving another Iranian ally, Hezbollah.

On Saturday afternoon, Lebanese police stopped a vehicle at the main security checkpoint on the road linking Beirut to the Bekaa Valley, arresting its two passengers and seizing hundreds of kilograms of explosives, including C-4 and TNT. According to experts cited by several media outlets, these highly explosive substances are the same as those used, among other incidents, in the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri in central Beirut on February 14, 2005.

The two arrested militiamen confessed, according to security sources cited by Lebanese media, to belonging to Hezbollah and to having been tasked with transporting the explosives from Baalbek to Beirut’s southern suburbs, two strongholds of the party-militia. The identity of the two men and the nature of the substances they were carrying were enough to revive fears of a return to political assassinations in Lebanon. Several media outlets reported that President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam had received warnings, conveyed by Western diplomatic missions, about an Iranian intention to attempt to kill them.

It is true that Iran has many grievances against the Lebanese authorities since they made Hezbollah’s military activities illegal (after the opening of the support front with Iran on March 2) and have been seeking to disarm the pro-Iranian militia in order to establish the state’s monopoly on weapons. However, the evidence supporting this theory of a return to attacks remains speculative until it is confirmed by a serious investigation. One thing is certain, however: Hezbollah retains its freedom of action in Lebanon and maintains a significant arsenal, even though it has not fought Israel directly for three months now.

What will the authorities do with this seizure, which changes the situation? Lebanese Justice Minister Adel Nassar assured that the investigation “will be pursued to the end.” It is true that in the past, militiamen transporting weapons would not even have been questioned… The coming days will therefore bear watching.

Against this troubled backdrop, Lebanon’s MTV channel made public on Sunday a report according to which a U.S. State Department official had said that the United States would be prepared to discuss possible measures to support efforts to disarm Hezbollah. This would be the first time the U.S. administration has considered direct intervention to disarm Iran’s proxy in Lebanon, but it remains to be confirmed.

While awaiting the next developments in the United States and Israel, the mullahs’ regime appears to be activating its remaining levers in the region in an attempt to regain the upper hand during what looks like a reprieve of a few weeks.