Specter of a major conflict amid Israeli elections and terrorism

Media coverage in the Middle East this week was dominated by rumors and press leaks suggesting that a major new war against Iran could be launched in the very near future. The prospect has also entered the Israeli election campaign. Meanwhile, two attacks shook the region within 24 hours, one in Israel and the other in Jordan.

Preparations for a new war against Iran are well underway in the Middle East, against the backdrop of approaching Israeli elections on October 27 and US midterm elections on November 3.

In the meantime, escalating rhetoric has prevailed, though it has not been matched by action. American, Israeli and Iranian statements about war preparations came throughout the week, notably from US President Donald Trump. “We’re going to demolish them,” he said at a rally in Alaska.

Without fully closing the door to diplomacy, he has repeatedly favored the military option.

On the ground, the United States continues to bolster its military presence in the Middle East, notably by repositioning its aircraft carriers and bringing home nonessential personnel from its embassies and bases in several Arab countries.

Meanwhile, under American pressure, Iraq closed a border crossing with Iran on Wednesday, October 21, while Pakistan suspended commercial traffic and sealed its borders with the Islamic Republic at around the same time. This is a clear indication of Washington’s determination to choke off the Iranian Revolutionary Guard regime.

For their part, Iranian officials have signaled their determination not to capitulate, as reflected in statements by the two lead negotiators with the United States: Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

This bellicose rhetoric was accompanied by press reports of increased production of ballistic missiles and drones in Iran, as well as military exercises conducted by the Revolutionary Guards.

Meanwhile, as they sought to counter their enforced isolation, the Iranians received a visit this week from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Mr. Araghchi’s message was essentially that “Iranian-Russian relations have never been better.”

But the fiercest statements this week came from Israel, a country riven by political divisions on the eve of a decisive election. Unsurprisingly, incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared to be using threats against Iran as leverage in a difficult electoral contest.

Buoyed early in the week by unequivocal support expressed personally by Donald Trump and an unannounced visit to Israel by US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, Mr. Netanyahu ratcheted up tensions with Tehran. On October 21, he said he had ordered his troops to “overthrow” the Iranian government.

He repeatedly insisted that the fall of the regime was the only way to eliminate the threat to his country and, in his words, to get rid of Hezbollah once and for all.

Two attacks in a single day

What Netanyahu could not have predicted, however, was that a security incident would intrude on the campaign, giving his political opponents ammunition against him—particularly his strongest rival, Gadi Eisenkot.

On Thursday, two gunmen opened fire at an intersection in Hebron, wounding five people. Two of them, Israeli soldiers, later died of their injuries. Both attackers were shot dead, but not before triggering a prolonged gunfight that, for many Israelis, revived the specter of October 7.

This rapprochement can do little to help Netanyahu, who has been tarnished by the scandal over warnings that, according to his critics, he ignored ahead of the Hamas operation that triggered the Gaza war in October 2023 and everything that followed.

As if by coincidence, another attack took place not far away, in neighboring Jordan. Two gunmen opened fire on worshippers preparing to attend a woman's funeral at a Greek Orthodox church in southwestern Jordan.

Nine people were killed and many others wounded in an attack that Jordanian authorities blamed on jihadist extremists. So far, no one has claimed responsibility for the terrorist attack.

In Lebanon, the eternal question: When will war break out?

Amid this regional turmoil, Lebanon—left vulnerable by war, Israeli occupation and Hezbollah's refusal to contemplate surrendering its weapons—is exposed to dangers on all sides.

This week was dominated by debate over the seizure, two weeks earlier, of explosives Hezbollah was transporting from the Bekaa Valley to Beirut.

Justice Minister Adel Nassar's proposal to refer the case to the Judicial Council—which would classify it as a political crime threatening state security—was put on hold at the request of President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam.

This was much to the dismay of the pro-sovereignty camp, particularly the Lebanese Forces.

Beyond the legal justifications, might Lebanon's first- and third-ranking officials have preferred to head off a potential backlash on the streets from Hezbollah supporters?

For the real question haunting the Lebanese is this: if another regional war breaks out, would Hezbollah open a new front against Israel at Iran's request?

Unable to enforce its own decisions to disarm the militia, the Lebanese leadership undoubtedly prefers to preserve the status quo of relative stability while awaiting major regional developments.

In this context, the past week saw a notable statement by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, leader of the Amal Movement, a Hezbollah ally.

In a show of irritation at the prospect of another war in Lebanon, the veteran politician, whom Hezbollah likes to call its “big brother,” declared: “There is no big-brother–little-brother relationship” with Hezbollah. It was another sign of a growing rift within the Shiite community.

Admittedly, according to reports carried by some local media at the end of the week, Hezbollah reportedly assured Berri that it would not get involved in a potential regional conflict… But it had given the same assurance last March, which did not stop the pro-Iranian party from dragging the country into another war.

Another worrying sign is the “visit” to southern Lebanon on a recent, unconfirmed date by senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Hussein Yakta… The visit was reported by the Israeli media outlet Alma. How did he enter Lebanon, and what was his mission?

Meanwhile, with a new round of negotiations between Lebanon and Israel held in Florida from October 20 to 23 yielding only very modest results, Israeli threats against Lebanon are doing little to reassure the Lebanese.

As the week draws to a close, however, attention is turning to the Israeli elections and what their results will mean for the region.