When Terrorism Enters the Middle East Conflict…

President Donald Trump's threats against Iran in the wake of Wednesday's Flydubai flight incident, along with the increased U.S. military presence in the region, show that war is a real possibility, even if the door to negotiations remains open. At least in principle, since Iranian officials continue to use radical rhetoric and believe they are in a position to dictate terms to the United States. At the same time, they are escalating matters in Yemen through their ally, the Houthis.

The failed hijacking attempt—or deliberate crash—of the Emirati Flydubai aircraft operating the Dubai–Tel Aviv route, carrying more than 150 Israeli passengers on September 30, clearly dominated the past week.

Not only because disaster was narrowly averted, but also because of its implications and its potential impact on the course of events in the Middle East.

What, in practical terms, links this incident to the regional conflict? A number of factors may be considered.

The terrorist nature of this attempted hijacking is no longer in doubt, since the Emirati authorities themselves established it, as indicated by the preliminary findings of their investigation.

It was established that the co-pilot, who attacked the Indian captain in order to take control of the aircraft, had been radicalized during a stay in Syria.

His father is Omani and his mother Syrian; he was dismissed by Oman's national airline and rejected by Emirates Airlines.

Although the co-pilot's leanings are Salafi-jihadist and his motive appears to have been hatred of Israel, Iranian involvement cannot be ruled out.

President Trump himself underscored this, threatening Tehran with forceful retaliation should such involvement be confirmed.

Added to this are accusations against Iran following a foiled attack on a U.S. base in the United Kingdom, despite Tehran's denial.

As a result, the military option could soon be back on the table.

The U.S. military is therefore strengthening its presence in the region, while U.S. sanctions on Iran are steadily intensifying, including a ban on flights to and from Tehran, with the sole exception of Najaf in Iraq, a holy city for Shiites.

Moreover, Iranian officials themselves stepped up their rhetoric on Sunday. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said that Iran remained committed to closing the Strait of Hormuz, asserting that this sea route would be reopened only if the United States complied with Iranian conditions—namely lifting the blockade, withdrawing from the region, and returning frozen assets, among other things.

In this context, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told the Americans that there is "no military solution" to the conflict, nor any solution "based on new sanctions," insisting that his country would respond forcefully to any new attack.

He was responding to President Trump, who said the Iranians would have to accept U.S. terms willingly or by force, and to Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, who stated that Iran must permanently abandon its nuclear program if it wants the door to negotiations to remain open.

In any event, U.S. sanctions are being felt more and more acutely in Iran.

The rial continues its dizzying plunge. Another sign that the Islamic Republic's economic collapse has reached a critical threshold is that the energy minister submitted his resignation, which was immediately accepted by the Iranian president.

This resignation comes as Iranian oil exports—which had been circumventing U.S. sanctions—could be completely halted in the coming days as a result of the severe measures taken in this area by the Trump administration.

On the Israeli side, fears of a possible attack have been revived—and have become a key part of the campaign for the next legislative election, scheduled for October 27.

Could Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu capitalize on this to strengthen his position? In any case, warnings about risks ahead of the election are multiplying in Israel.

Escalation in Yemen

Whether or not Iran is involved in recent terrorist incidents, its Yemeni ally, the Houthi group, is nonetheless driving a sharp escalation against Saudi Arabia, which peaked at the end of the week with another attack on Saudi oil giant Aramco.

In Yemen, the rebels are continuing their advance by encircling the major city of Taez, whose potential capture would be a major setback for the internationally recognized Yemeni government forces backed by the Saudis.

Nevertheless, on Sunday evening, through their president, they announced “a major offensive to retake the territories seized by the Houthis.”

As Yemeni government forces announced that they had launched a general offensive to liberate territories occupied by pro-Iranian forces, the United States does not appear ready to engage in the fight against the rebels. Against this backdrop, the Saudis denied on Sunday that there had been a Houthi strike on Aramco, a claim the rebels subsequently reaffirmed.

This Monday, however, attention will turn to the meeting scheduled in Riyadh between members of the Mecca Pact, which brings together Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, now bound by a mutual defense agreement. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia will be on the agenda, Turkey announced on Sunday.

In Lebanon, political stalemate and military escalation

While Iran is indeed pushing the Houthis toward escalation, it does not appear to be doing the same with Hezbollah in Lebanon, which has still not retaliated against Israeli attacks in the south of the country. Nevertheless, observers note a continuing escalation by the Israeli army in the south, with ongoing raids, bombardments, and demolitions using explosives...

Hezbollah has not abandoned “armed struggle,” however, as its secretary-general, Naim Qassem, indicated in a September 27 speech in which he resumed his attacks on the Lebanese authorities.