Today's Essential

The diplomatic maneuvering aimed at ending the war between the United States and Iran continues with the visit to Tehran of a new senior Pakistani official, mediator of the discussions. Between statements from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who claimed that "progress had been made," and those from Iran's Foreign Ministry, according to which "negotiations currently focus on ending the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon," a certain optimism seemed to be emerging after a series of explosive messages exchanged by both sides. But information published Thursday by the Reuters agency concerning Iranian nuclear matters, as well as a hardening of the Revolutionary Guards' position on the Strait of Hormuz, came to sweep away this diplomatic lull.

South Lebanon witnessed another escalation Tuesday night and again Wednesday, while at the regional level, Pakistan continues to quietly work to try to defuse a conflict that threatens to spiral out of control at any moment, given the exchange of threats between Washington and Tehran. The Israeli military conducted a series of deadly airstrikes and artillery attacks over the past twenty-four hours against numerous Hezbollah positions and infrastructure in villages and sites in southern Lebanon. According to the latest toll released by the Lebanese Ministry of Health, these attacks killed at least 20 people over the past 24 hours, including 13 alone in the village of Deir Qanoun el-Nahr.

After announcing on Monday that he had canceled a planned attack on Iran at the last minute, which was scheduled for the following day, US President Donald Trump threatened again on Tuesday to strike Iran if no agreement was reached. For its part, the Iranian military responded by threatening Washington to open "new fronts" if their attacks resume. From the White House, where he was showing journalists the construction site of the East Wing of the presidential headquarters, Trump reiterated that he hoped he would not have to wage war. "But we might have to give them another big blow. I'm not sure right now," he said.

Iran responded Monday to a new U.S. proposal aimed at breaking the diplomatic deadlock and bringing a lasting end to the war in the Middle East, its Foreign Ministry said, adding that exchanges with Washington were continuing "through the Pakistani mediator". Iran reiterated its demands on Monday, particularly calling for the release of frozen Iranian assets abroad and the lifting of international sanctions suffocating its economy. The spokesman also insisted on the payment of reparations for the war, which he described as "illegal and baseless". On Sunday, Iranian media denounced the "excessive conditions" imposed by the United States in its latest offer. According to the Fars agency, they demand that Iran maintain only a single active nuclear site and transfer its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to the United States.

A relatively calm weekend beginning on both the Lebanese and regional fronts, with the exception of ongoing military operations in South Lebanon and certain sectors of the Bekaa. This Sunday, May 17, should formally mark the start of the extended ceasefire, lasting 45 days, decided Friday during the third round of direct Lebanese-Israeli negotiations held Thursday and Friday in Washington under the auspices of the State Department. Even if Israel officially gives its approval for this new ceasefire (it could hardly refuse), nothing suggests that Israeli air strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure or the elimination of pro-Iranian party officials through targeted air raids will be suspended.

Obviously, one could not have expected spectacular results or decisions from the third round of direct Lebanese-Israeli negotiations held Thursday and Friday at the State Department in Washington. However, it must be acknowledged that the mere fact that these bilateral face-to-face discussions took place in Washington under the auspices of the US Administration represents a significant breakthrough in itself. Beyond this politically symbolic parameter, some positive signs emerged Friday evening following the marathon meetings held by the Lebanese and Israeli delegations. The State Department emphasized that the exchanges took place in a 'positive atmosphere that even exceeded our expectations.'

May 14, 2026 marked the beginning of the third round of direct negotiations between Israeli and Lebanese delegations in Washington at the State Department headquarters. Contrary to expectations, the Israeli delegation was not headed by former Israeli minister Ron Dermer, who is close to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but rather by Israel's ambassador to Washington, Yechiel Leiter, as had been the case in previous meetings. On the Lebanese side, however, the delegation was this time headed by former ambassador to Washington Simon Karam, an experienced negotiator who had already been appointed by Republic President Joseph Aoun to the ceasefire monitoring committee in South Lebanon (before the current conflict).

An unprecedented Lebanese initiative practically stole the spotlight locally on Wednesday from two major events: the resumption of Lebanese-Israeli negotiations in Washington and the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing. On the eve of these two crucial meetings due to their impact on the regional conflict, Beirut submitted a memorandum to the UN in which it challenges claims made by Tehran to protest to the UN Security Council against the Israeli strike that killed four of its diplomats at the Ramada Hotel in Raouché last March. In this memorandum, Lebanese diplomacy criticizes the Islamic Republic, accusing it of violating the Geneva Convention on diplomatic relations and interfering in Lebanese internal affairs, according to Independent Arabia, which reported on it.

As political circles await clearer indications of President Donald Trump’s true intentions regarding the trajectory of the standoff with the Islamic Republic – following Washington’s outright rejection of Tehran’s response to the latest American “peace” proposals (though what kind of “peace” is actually being discussed remains an open question) – attention on Tuesday, May 12, turned to reports of an Israeli incursion north of the Litani River, the first such move in the current context. Since the disastrous war launched by Hezbollah in July 2006 – for what many viewed as purely Iranian considerations – every international and regional initiative, negotiation and security arrangement had focused on stabilizing the area south of the Litani. United Nations Resolution 1701, as well as the ceasefire brokered in November 2024 following yet another self-destructive war initiated by Hezbollah, centered on ending all militia presence within that clearly delineated southern zone.

Saturday in Lebanon was marked by the visit of Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam to Damascus, where he was received by Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa. This visit is particularly significant in the current circumstances for several reasons: firstly, the outstanding issues between the two countries, such as border security, the resolution of the issue of Syrian prisoners in Lebanon, and others; secondly, the Israeli offensive in southern Lebanon, even as Israeli incursions into southern Syria have taken place in recent months; and finally, the context of the direct negotiations process between Lebanon and Israel, initiated by the Lebanese authorities and sponsored by Washington, within which Lebanon would benefit from expanding its contacts in the region.