A Series of Tight Votes in the Race to Succeed Guterres

Sylviane Zehil, New York

The first color-coded ballot, held at the Security Council on 16 October, exposed the major powers’ opposition to the three frontrunners in the race to succeed António Guterres. None can now be sure of clearing the veto hurdle. With less than three months remaining before the deadline, diplomatic maneuvering is intensifying as the Trump administration seeks to influence the choice of a secretary-general capable of bringing about far-reaching change at the United Nations.

In New York, the race to succeed António Guterres has reached a decisive turning point. The red ballots have spoken but have not revealed everything. For the first time since the selection process began, the five permanent members of the Security Council have made their opposition to the leading contenders for the UN’s top job more apparent.

The results of the sixth straw poll, held on Friday, 16 October, are telling: each of the three leading candidates received two unfavorable votes from permanent members with veto power. This significantly complicates their path to the post and could open the door to new candidates.

Beyond this diplomatic contest lies a far more fundamental question: who will lead the UN at a time when its future, its financial resources and even its very purpose are being called into question?

Three Frontrunners, Six Potential Vetoes

The results show that Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan maintains her lead, with nine votes in favor, five against and one “no opinion”. Three permanent members support her candidacy, while two oppose it. Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett follows with eight votes in favor and one “no opinion”. Argentina’s Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has also secured eight votes in favor. All three face the same obstacle: two votes against from among the five permanent members.

The 16 October ballot is particularly significant. Unlike the five previous rounds, it distinguished between red ballots, reserved for the United States, Russia, China, France and the United Kingdom, and white ballots, used by the Security Council’s ten elected members.

This mechanism makes it possible to identify potential vetoes while preserving the anonymity of the states concerned. A vote against a candidate on a red ballot is not yet a formal veto, but it is a serious warning. To be recommended to the General Assembly, a candidate must secure at least nine votes out of fifteen, without opposition from any permanent member in the official vote. At this stage, only Rebeca Grynspan has reached the nine-vote threshold, yet she remains at risk of being blocked.

The Costa Rican candidate responded cautiously on X, choosing to emphasize the consistency of her support instead. “The reported results once again place me in the lead, with steady support since the first ballot in July. I will continue to work with every member to build the consensus needed.”

“We’ve Put the UN on a Diet”

But it is the reaction of US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz on X that gives the ballot its full political significance. For Washington, the appointment of the next secretary-general is about more than the choice of an individual. It must be part of a far-reaching transformation of the Organization, in line with Donald Trump’s priorities. “It is absolutely essential that we get this process right. This institution is in desperate need of reform, and President Trump needs a partner on the international stage to advance peace,” Waltz said after the ballot. He then offered a telling formulation: “So we are streamlining and slimming down this institution. We’ve put the UN on a diet.”

The message is clear: Washington wants a secretary-general capable of cutting costs, reducing bureaucracy and refocusing the Organization on international peace and security. “Human rights matter. Development matters. But all these areas need peace and security like oxygen to breathe,” the US ambassador added.

This approach reflects Donald Trump’s vision. He does not necessarily reject the United Nations but intends to radically redefine how it operates.

In his address to the 81st session of the General Assembly on 22 September, the US president acknowledged that “the United Nations has tremendous potential”, before accusing it of promoting “the far-left agenda of unelected globalist bureaucrats”. “There is no such thing as global government,” he declared, reaffirming his vision of an international order founded above all on state sovereignty.

Money as Another Lever of US Pressure

The push for reform is accompanied by considerable financial pressure. Although the United States paid $725 million towards the UN’s regular budget in September, it still owed $1.312 billion as of 16 September, according to Reuters. The payment nevertheless brought the United States back below the critical threshold set by Article 19 of the UN Charter, allowing it to retain its voting rights in the General Assembly. Washington has said that further payments will depend on continued progress with reform.

The selection of the next secretary-general is unfolding against a backdrop of competing pressures, with financial contributions also serving as a tool of diplomatic leverage. Mike Waltz summed up the US position in three words: “Reform, reform, reform.”

Ivonne Abdel-Baki Faces Rejection

The ballot also marked a major setback for Ivonne Abdel Baki, an Ecuadorian political figure of Lebanese origin whose candidacy was put forward by Tonga on 17 August, late in the process. She received just one vote in favor and fourteen against, including votes against her from all five permanent members. The result seriously undermines her prospects of becoming head of the Organization.

On X, she nevertheless continued to champion her vision of quiet diplomacy, centered on conflict prevention. “True diplomacy is measured by the conflicts it helps prevent, not by press releases … I am not running for secretary-general to obtain a title, but to fulfil a mission,” she said.

Could New Candidates Enter the Race?

The lack of consensus around the three frontrunners could now reopen the contest. According to PassBlue, several Security Council members want to accelerate the process before Guterres’s term ends on 31 December. Candidates with weaker prospects could be encouraged to withdraw, while new names are being discussed in diplomatic circles. Among them are Lana Nusseibeh, the UAE’s Minister of State and former ambassador to the United Nations, and Courtenay Rattray, a Jamaican diplomat who serves as António Guterres’s chief of staff.

Other figures are also being mentioned, including Dutch diplomat Sigrid Kaag, who became the first woman to serve as deputy prime minister, finance minister and foreign minister of the Netherlands. She has also led the progressive D66 party and served as the UN’s Special Coordinator for Lebanon. Another name being floated is Vuk Jeremić, Serbia’s former foreign minister, who was elected president of the 67th session of the UN General Assembly and was an unsuccessful candidate for secretary-general in 2016.

At this stage, these are possibilities rather than confirmed candidacies. They nevertheless point to potential efforts to find a figure capable of overcoming opposition from the major powers.

The question of geographical rotation remains sensitive. All three frontrunners belong to the Group of Latin American and Caribbean Countries (GRULAC), which argues that it is the region’s turn to lead the Organization. But this informal principle alone cannot overcome a veto by any of the five permanent members.

A Battle Over the Future of the UN

With less than three months to go before António Guterres steps down, the succession race remains wide open. The 16 October ballot confirmed a reality familiar to diplomats: at the United Nations, securing the most votes is not enough to win. A candidate must also avoid opposition from any of the five powers holding veto rights.

For Washington, the stakes are particularly high, as Donald Trump intends to use the succession to drive a far-reaching transformation of the Organization. For other members, the challenge is to strike a delicate balance between the demands for reform, the interests of the major powers and the United Nations’ universal mission.

The next secretary-general will have to navigate these competing pressures while restoring the credibility and capacity for action of an institution weakened by international crises and financial constraints. The red ballots have exposed the first fault lines. The question now is whether the major powers can bridge their differences and choose a secretary-general capable of defending the UN without becoming an instrument of any one of them.