Today's Essential

As a brief naval confrontation between American and Iranian forces unfolded in the Strait of Hormuz, an adviser to Iran's supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, declared on Friday that this maritime passage, through which 20% of the world's crude oil transits, represented 'an opportunity as valuable as an atomic bomb'. 'We have neglected for years the advantage that the Strait of Hormuz represents. Having a position that allows us to influence the global economy with a single decision is a major opportunity,' said Mohammad Mokhber, who is considered close to the hardline faction of the clerical regime.

Faced with the impatience of US President Donald Trump, eager to make progress on negotiations with Iran before his visit to China next week, Tehran is playing a carefully calculated game of detachment. As of Thursday, the Islamic Republic had still not responded to the American proposal, announced Tuesday by President Trump, for a lasting end to the war launched on February 28. According to CNN, the response is expected within the next few hours. Two explanations can be given for the apparent nonchalance displayed by the Islamic Republic. The first lies in the fact that Tehran still believes it can maneuver and play on the element of time, hoping to minimize the concessions it has to make to the Americans or, at the very least, to get them to lower their demands.

On the Iranian-American front, May 6 unfolded as a day of sustained rhetoric escalation and conflicting statements. These developments followed the surprise announcement by US President Donald Trump declaring the end of the offensive phase of the conflict – an operation dubbed “Project Liberty” – in the Strait of Hormuz, while maintaining a blockade on Iranian ports. A report widely cited across the media, published earlier in the day by Axios, pointed to the possibility of an imminent agreement between Tehran and Washington. It highlighted what it described as a highly consequential 48-hour window for reaching a peace deal.

After a day marked by incendiary statements from all sides, the United States, through the voice of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, assured late Tuesday evening (Beirut time) that the offensive phase of the conflict with Iran was “over”. During a press conference at the White House, the US Secretary of State stated that Washington was now in a “defensive” phase, referring to the new operation announced by Donald Trump and dubbed “Project Liberty”. “Operation ‘Epic Fury’ is over, as the president signified to Congress. We have passed this stage,” he added. Marco Rubio clarified that this operation aimed to rescue the crews of ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States will not open fire, but will retaliate “with deadly effectiveness” in the event of an attack.

The week opened with a new diplomatic back-and-forth and a risk of military escalation between Iran and the United States. Washington stepped up its pressure on the Islamic Republic, which reacted by firing missiles at... the United Arab Emirates. At the heart of this new standoff is, once again, the strategic Strait of Hormuz, which the US Navy managed to unblock on Monday, to Tehran's great dismay, by escorting ships into Emirati territorial waters, which were quickly targeted by the Iranian army. According to various American media sources, the latest Iranian proposal submitted by Tehran for a resumption of talks with Washington was not too bad. But it did not really meet Donald Trump's expectations, especially regarding the nuclear issue, which the Iranians are seeking to postpone as much as possible, and the control exercised by Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, blocked since the beginning of the war.

The main news this Saturday is not about the conflict between Tehran and Washington, but one of its consequences, namely the emerging crisis between Europe and the United States, which is considering significantly reducing its military presence in Germany. Washington indeed plans to withdraw about 15% of the 36,000 troops stationed in Germany, or nearly 5,000 soldiers, a withdrawal that the Pentagon estimates can be completed in the "next six to twelve months," according to its spokesperson, Sean Parnell. This plan, announced by the Pentagon, would thus be the first consequence of the showdown between the American president, Donald Trump, and the NATO countries, whom the latter has repeatedly criticized for their passivity in the war that has pitted him against Iran since February 28.

On a scale of 1 to 10, optimism regarding a breakthrough in the US-Iranian talks in Islamabad remains below average, with Tehran and Washington still at the stage of exchanging conditions and demands. The official Iranian agency, IRNA, revealed on Friday that the Islamic Republic submitted a new proposal for resuming negotiations to the United States on Thursday evening via the Pakistani mediator, which are supposed to bring a lasting end to the war. IRNA did not give details on the content of the Iranian offer while the Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, got in touch with his Saudi, Qatari, Turkish, Egyptian, Iraqi, and Azerbaijani counterparts.

The United States and its Israeli ally threatened yesterday to resume strikes against Iran in order to force the Islamic Republic to return to the negotiating table. Despite the truce and initial talks on April 11 in Islamabad, diplomacy is still struggling to prevail. According to the American site Axios , President Donald Trump was to be briefed by Centcom (US Central Command) commander Brad Cooper on possible new military operations against Iran. The goal is to carry out a decisive military action. The options presented to him by the Centcom chief include a wave of strikes targeting infrastructure, but also the possibility of taking control of the Strait of Hormuz, possibly with the participation of US ground forces, according to the site, which cites two sources close to the matter.

The standoff between the Lebanese presidency and Hezbollah – and President Joseph Aoun’s resolve to press ahead with direct negotiations with Israel under Washington’s auspices – is reportedly placing his life at risk. The warning surfaced over the past 24 hours from an unlikely source: Israeli intelligence services. A report aired by Israel’s Channel 12 cited a military intelligence briefing indicating that “the involvement of the Lebanese president in direct negotiations with Israel could endanger his life.” According to local broadcaster MTV Lebanon, the information is being taken seriously at Baabda Palace, the seat of the presidency. Even so, Aoun appears unwilling to back down from his commitment to pursuing an agreement with Tel Aviv aimed at ending the conflict into which Hezbollah has drawn the country.

Tuesday, April 28 in Lebanon was still shaped by the starkly opposing speeches delivered a day earlier by President Joseph Aoun on the one hand, and Hezbollah secretary-general Naïm Qassem on the other. The former’s address was, in effect, a response to the latter. The president argued that the real “treason” of which he has been accused by the pro-Iranian camp since the launch of direct negotiations with Israel – aimed at ending the war triggered by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon – should instead be attributed to those driving the country into a spiral of destruction and violence. Unsurprisingly, the unprecedented response of a sitting president to the leader of a militia – one that, until the end of 2024, maintained a firm grip on the Lebanese state – has divided the country along its familiar political fault lines.