No toll? An Iranian 'shakedown' for the Strait of Hormuz instead?

A relatively calm weekend beginning on both the Lebanese and regional fronts, with the exception of ongoing military operations in South Lebanon and certain sectors of the Bekaa.

This Sunday, May 17, should formally mark the start of the extended ceasefire, lasting 45 days, decided Friday during the third round of direct Lebanese-Israeli negotiations held Thursday and Friday in Washington under the auspices of the State Department. Even if Israel officially gives its approval for this new ceasefire (it could hardly refuse), nothing suggests that Israeli air strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure or the elimination of pro-Iranian party officials through targeted air raids will be suspended.

Awaiting the hour when the truce begins, Saturday was marked by an intensification of Israeli air raids and heavy artillery bombardments against the positions of the Shiite faction in several villages in the districts of Tyre, Sidon, and Nabatieh, causing the population to flee toward the city of Sidon.

Meanwhile, an Israeli drone was flying over the capital and the southern suburbs at very low altitude.

At the regional level, political circles are still waiting for the decision that President Donald Trump should make shortly regarding the conflict with Iran, in light of Iran's final position on American peace proposals.

On Saturday, Pakistan's Interior Minister traveled to Tehran to discuss with Iranian leaders the possibility of reviving Pakistan's mediation with the United States before the situation deteriorates militarily.

Iranian Maneuver

At this stage, Iranian sources reported on Saturday discussions launched by 'certain European countries' with the Islamic Republic to find a way out of the explosive problem of the Strait of Hormuz.

Should this initiative by certain European countries be confirmed, it would inevitably result in a rehabilitation of the regime and a strengthening of its position against the Trump Administration.

In practical terms, the Iranian government persists in wanting to take advantage of the current crisis to attempt to impose its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz in order to generate substantial revenues that would allow it to offset some of the losses suffered during the armed conflict with the United States and Israel.

According to certain sources, Tehran is seeking to circumvent the unanimous international refusal of any direct toll policy that the Revolutionary Guards were trying to impose on countries using the strait.

For the Islamic Republic, the alternative solution being examined by the Ministry of Economy would be to collect, not a toll, but a kind of financial contribution in exchange for 'services' provided to ships transiting this maritime route.

Among these 'services' would be 'insurance' covering specific risks. Such a disguised 'tax' would generate particularly high revenues, exceeding what a conventional toll could ensure.

The regime would not be satisfied with this kind of state 'extortion'; it would intend to push the maneuver further by making a unilateral decision to substantially expand the maritime zone of the strait that it is attempting to bring under its sovereignty!

The question remains whether the United States, and especially the European countries, will agree to back down in the face of Iranian blackmail…