The post-memorandum of understanding reveals Tehran's true face

After the displays of joy and goodwill following its supposed "victory" against the Israeli-American camp, the pro-Iranian axis quickly bared its teeth when confronted with ground realities, as revealed by the chain of events since the signing of the memorandum of understanding between Tehran and Washington on June 18, followed by the agreement between Beirut and Tel Aviv on June 26.

Iran, which believed it could call the shots after successfully getting its key priorities included in the text of the agreement with Washington, quickly revealed the limits of the "goodwill" it had touted throughout the negotiations that led to the signing of the document presented as a prelude to a regional peace deal.

The vehemence of its reaction to the normalization of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and to the return of IAEA inspectors to its nuclear sites, has laid bare — as if any further proof were needed — the true intentions of the Islamic Republic: to concede nothing on the essentials, including the Lebanese file.

Yet the United States had lifted the naval blockade imposed on Iranian ports and authorized the production, delivery, transport, and sale of crude oil and Iranian petroleum products during the 60-day negotiating period.

On Saturday night into Sunday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps carried out strikes against Kuwait and Bahrain, in response, according to their statement, to "American aggression." Yet if there is an aggressor in this affair, it is clearly Iran. Indeed, ever since the Sultanate of Oman decided, in coordination with CENTCOM, to secure a navigation corridor along its coastline in the Strait of Hormuz while the issue is being resolved, Tehran has been conducting drone attacks against tankers using the route that falls outside its control.

On Saturday night into Sunday, a Panama-flagged oil tanker was targeted, prompting an immediate response from U.S. forces, who carried out retaliatory strikes against military installations on the Iranian coast near Hormuz. Disregarding CENTCOM's warnings, Tehran retaliated by launching a series of drone attacks against Kuwait and Bahrain. Most of the projectiles were intercepted.

Trump's Threats

U.S. President Donald Trump responded by warning on his Truth Social platform against Tehran's continued ceasefire violations, once again suggesting he is prepared to resume hostilities if the impasse continues.

But the Islamic Republic appears unwilling to listen. Its Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, reaffirmed on Sunday that his country alone is "responsible for managing this strategic waterway" and warned that any interference in Iran's management of the strait risked "escalating tensions."

Araghchi made these remarks during an unannounced visit to Baghdad to discuss the memorandum of understanding with the United States with Iraqi officials and to coordinate with them the details of the funeral ceremonies for Ali Khamenei, scheduled from July 4 to 12 at the Shia shrines of Najaf and Karbala in Iraq.

Ironically, regional cooperation also came up, as the Iranian minister welcomed a Baghdad initiative — presented by his Iraqi counterpart, Fuad Hussein — to organize a summit bringing together Iran and the Gulf states, which the Islamic Republic continues to bombard.

Iranian Legal Action Against the U.S.?

Meanwhile, Tehran continues to refuse inspections of its nuclear sites damaged or destroyed in Israeli-American strikes during the war — a condition Washington has set for releasing an initial tranche of frozen Iranian assets. Tehran's argument is straightforward: IAEA inspectors are not neutral.

Against this backdrop of renewed tensions, Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has stepped into the fray. In a statement released on Sunday to mark Judiciary Week in Iran, he called for legal proceedings to be launched — both domestically and internationally — against the United States, which he holds responsible for his father Ali Khamenei's death as well as for strikes carried out against his country.

These remarks were tempered, however, by Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian, who declared his support for "stability, security, and dialogue in the region." Pezeshkian also expressed hope that "all parties will honor their commitments under the agreements reached" — an apparent reference to the Israeli-Lebanese accord.

On the Lebanese file, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' displeasure has been plain to see since the signing of the Lebanese-Israeli framework agreement, which is expected to gradually pull Lebanon out of Tehran's orbit by neutralizing the operational capacity of its military arm, Hezbollah, and curtailing its destabilizing influence.

The IRGC, like Hezbollah, recognizes only what the memorandum of understanding with Washington stipulates for Lebanon. In Baghdad, Abbas Araghchi — a figure close to the Pasdaran — stressed that all parties must abide by every clause of the memorandum of understanding signed with the United States, including those relating to Lebanon, "where, unfortunately, the Zionist entity continues its airstrikes." He called on Washington to "take responsibility and pressure Israel to withdraw from the areas it occupies in Lebanon," adding, "That is the first clause of the memorandum of understanding" — without making any mention of the Lebanese-Israeli framework agreement.

Tehran, like Hezbollah, considers itself in no way bound by that document. One of the pro-Iranian movement's MPs, Hassan Fadlallah, again made his position clear. He not only repudiated the Washington framework agreement but insisted that "Hezbollah's weapons will be maintained through a regional equation stretching from the Strait of Hormuz to southern Lebanon."

It is against this backdrop of uncertainty surrounding the pro-Iranian movement's actions on the ground that the Israeli army was set to begin a tactical withdrawal from two "pilot zones" beyond the Blue Line in southern Lebanon, where it continues nonetheless to target Hezbollah fighters.

At the same time, Israeli officials continue to emphasize that their military will press on with operations in the southern part of the country to eliminate any Hezbollah threat. The week now beginning thus remains fraught with uncertainty and tension.

Also worth noting is a major development on the sidelines — or perhaps as a direct outgrowth — of these events: on Saturday evening and throughout Sunday, Iraq was swept by a wave of arrests targeting more than fifty prominent political figures, including numerous members of parliament as well as businesspeople, who have been charged with corruption but who are reportedly close to the Iranian regime, according to sources that have yet to be confirmed.