USA-Iran: escalation prevails over diplomacy… until further notice!

Tensions have been rising since the beginning of the week between Washington and Tehran following new Iranian strikes on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The negotiation process is not dead, but appears weakened. Hezbollah, for its part, is threatening to re-engage in southern Lebanon if war breaks out again, as attention turns to Lebanese-Israeli talks scheduled for next week in Rome.

On Sunday morning, U.S. forces announced they had carried out, overnight, a third wave of strikes targeting more than 140 sites in Iran, in retaliation for a new attack by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on a commercial vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Following the U.S. raids, the IRGC wasted no time in launching — and expanding, as is their custom — attacks against several Gulf countries, specifically Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Kuwait… as well as Jordan, a country that Iran added to its list of potential targets amid the escalation of recent days. Even the Omani mediator was not spared. The attack on the Sultanate of Oman came just hours after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's visit to the sultanate!

These attacks reflect the atmosphere of the past week, during which tensions steadily escalated until the flare-up recorded over the weekend. On Sunday evening, U.S. forces launched fresh strikes against Revolutionary Guard military infrastructure, which in turn resumed their attacks on Gulf countries, most notably Kuwait.

Tensions between Iran and the United States were already evident at the start of the week. Growing increasingly frustrated with Iran's behavior, President Donald Trump had nonetheless stated that he wanted to give them a reprieve until the burial of their former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, scheduled for July 9.

The Iranians, for their part, used this event — postponed since March (Khamenei had been killed in joint Israeli-American strikes on February 28, at the start of the war in Iran) — to stage a show of force from July 4 to 9, claiming that "millions" of "supporters" took part in gatherings marked by weeping and lamentation, both in Iran and in certain regions of Iraq. Particularly striking were the slogans chanted during these popular and official demonstrations: they directly called for the death of President Trump.

In this context, leaks to American media this week reported Israeli warnings passed to the U.S. president regarding an Iranian plot to assassinate him. Another sign added to fears for Trump's safety: he arrived at this week's NATO summit, held in Turkey, aboard his new presidential aircraft — a gift from Qatar — but departed on the older presidential plane (considered far more secure), "for security reasons," according to U.S. media.

Indeed, Trump's statements reflected the escalating mood throughout the week, with American strikes resuming even before Khamenei was buried on July 9. As early as July 6, the U.S. president warned: "There will either be a deal with Iran, or we will finish the job." To that was added a pointed remark on July 8: "The ceasefire is over." On top of that came sharp criticism of Iran's leaders, whom he called "liars" and "sick people."

His anger not only reflects his outrage over threats against him personally, but also serves as a response to the repeated attacks by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the Guards' stubborn determination to maintain their grip over this crucial waterway.

Talks under fire

On July 10, Trump did walk back his position somewhat, stating that "the Iranians have asked to resume talks, and we agreed." Indeed, Pakistani and Qatari mediators worked intensively throughout the week to prevent the negotiations from collapsing altogether. Reports suggest that talks are continuing in some form in Oman, a claim backed by a statement from Iran's Foreign Ministry on Sunday. What appears to have changed, however, is that negotiations will now proceed under fire rather than under a ceasefire.

Regarding Iran's internal situation, the absence of new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei from his father's funeral has drawn attention from numerous media outlets and political circles, raising the question of who is actually governing Iran today.

That question is becoming increasingly pressing, especially as the hardline wing of the regime appears to be gaining the upper hand over the moderate camp. In recent days, bellicose statements have come almost exclusively from the Revolutionary Guards. The rhetoric of chief negotiator Mohammad Ghalibaf, the Parliament Speaker, has followed suit: on July 10, he declared that the war in the Middle East "will not end with Iran's surrender," then doubled down on Sunday with another jab: "The era of unfair deals is over."

How far can Iranian intransigence go? The country's economic situation is dire, yet the Revolutionary Guards appear intent on playing for time by exploiting rising oil prices through threats to close the Strait of Hormuz. In any case, the escalation remains relatively contained for now, as all sides wait either for a new truce or for a miscalculation that could throw the doors wide open to a broader conflict.

Lebanese-Israeli negotiations in Rome

On the southern Lebanese front, the situation remains unchanged, with the Israeli army continuing to dismantle Hezbollah infrastructure. The Shiite militia's leadership has nonetheless announced that it "will not leave Iran to face this alone if the war resumes."

The attacks over recent days on the Lebanese scene have been largely verbal, with the pro-Iranian camp lashing out against the Lebanese state's decision to engage in direct talks with Israel. These attacks drew a firm response from Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, who traveled to the Baabda Palace on Friday at the head of a sizable parliamentary delegation to express support for Lebanon's legal framework governing direct negotiations.

Those talks are set to continue next week in Rome, despite Lebanese reservations about the change of venue, amid fears that Washington's involvement might diminish — something American officials have flatly ruled out. US Ambassador Michel Issa moved to dispel those concerns on Thursday during a round of meetings with senior officials, including President of the Republic Joseph Aoun.

In that context, the US Ambassador announced the arrival of an American military delegation in Lebanon to oversee the implementation of the framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon (signed on June 22), particularly regarding the gradual Israeli withdrawal and the deployment of the Lebanese army in two pilot zones in the south. The US delegation met with the army command on this matter toward the end of the week.

Presumably to improve the chances of these talks succeeding, the Israeli military command ordered Israeli units to freeze "sensitive operations in southern Lebanon" at the request of the Americans.

The other major news of the week was the confirmation of the Lebanese president's visit to Washington on July 21. It is worth noting that Joseph Aoun still refuses to include a direct meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as part of the visit — Netanyahu having announced earlier in the week an upcoming meeting with President Trump.

Macron in Syria

The past week was also marked by the NATO summit in Turkey, attended notably by President Trump, but above all by President Emmanuel Macron's visit to Damascus on July 6 — the first by a Western head of state since the change of regime in December 2024. The visit was an opportunity to discuss cooperation and economic matters, at a time when the new regime is seeking to consolidate its ranks and engineer a recovery. But it also provided an opening for terrorists — apparently the Islamic State group, according to Syrian authorities — to carry out a double bombing not far from the hotel where the French president was staying. A reminder that the security situation in Syria remains precarious.