Lebanese Days in Washington, Aoun at the State Department
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun arrived in Washington on Saturday, ahead of a scheduled meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday. On the regional front, the United States intensified its strikes throughout the past week against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) positions and infrastructure, prompting retaliatory attacks by the latter against Gulf countries (!), while the Iranian-backed Houthi militia in Yemen once again entered the fray.
As the week drew to a close, attention in Lebanon was firmly fixed on the long-awaited visit of President Joseph Aoun to Washington. The head of state, who arrived in the U.S. capital on Saturday accompanied by his wife and advisors, held a meeting on Sunday afternoon (Beirut time) at the State Department with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. He is set to meet with several other U.S. officials before his appointment on Tuesday with President Donald Trump at the White House.
President Joseph Aoun's meeting with the Secretary of State lasted an hour and a half. During the talks, the Lebanese president stressed the importance of swiftly establishing the pilot zones that Israel should evacuate, in order to allow the Lebanese army to deploy in those areas. Rubio reaffirmed the United States' commitment to working toward implementing the framework agreement concluded between Lebanon and Israel. The U.S. Secretary of State also praised the efforts of President Aoun and the Salam government in restoring Lebanese state sovereignty and dismantling the Hezbollah militia.
In this context, sources cited by the al-Hadath channel reported on Sunday that the Trump administration is seeking to establish "an alliance between Lebanon and Iraq in order to reduce Iranian influence in the region."
Regardless, this official visit by a Lebanese president to the United States — the first in many years — carries particular significance given the current context, not only in terms of domestic developments, but especially at the regional level.
The sixth round of direct Lebanese-Israeli negotiations, held this week in Rome, did make progress regarding the initial implementation of the framework agreement signed on June 26 in Washington. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar announced on Tuesday from Jerusalem that the Israelis "are ready to move forward" with implementing the pilot zones in southern Lebanon. The two-day talks in Rome between Lebanese and Israeli negotiators were described as "productive and positive" on Wednesday by the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon.
However, the devil remains in the details, which were to be discussed on Friday during technical exchanges between the Lebanese and Israeli sides. Those consultations were postponed, as Lebanon insists that the pilot zones must clearly consist of villages currently occupied by Israel, while Tel Aviv is demanding stronger guarantees regarding the systematic destruction of all Hezbollah infrastructure in areas handed over to the Lebanese army. The Israelis have submitted requests to that effect to the Americans.
In any case, the Lebanese are not the only ones facing a "mixed" situation. Relations between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Trump are reportedly not on solid footing. Israeli media reported this week that Netanyahu would soon travel to Washington to meet with the U.S. president, but American officials denied that any appointment had been secured.
What's more, U.S. pressure on Netanyahu is mounting, according to Axios, who revealed that President Trump asked Israeli PM, during a phone call on Thursday, to redeploy his army in Syria and Lebanon.
Escalation with Iran
On the ground in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah has still not resumed fighting, though this appears to be only a brief respite. Indeed, judging by statements from its leadership, the pro-Iranian militia "has no intention of returning to the situation that existed before March 2." In other words, Hezbollah will not indefinitely absorb Israeli attacks without responding; yet the airstrikes and the blowing up of tunnels and militia infrastructure have not stopped. Another significant indicator: Syrian armed forces seized, this week, a large shipment of drones originating from Iran and destined for Hezbollah.
The Shia party appears, in this context, to be increasingly stretched to its limits, with a popular base that is either displaced or left in uninhabitable villages. Moreover, funerals for fighters have been taking place by the dozens in southern villages since the relative lull of the latest ceasefire.
However, it cannot be ruled out that Hezbollah may once again drag its popular base and Lebanon into a new conflict if Iran finds itself, once more, at the center of a major escalation. Indeed, American strikes on Iran have continued relentlessly throughout the week, and nothing appears to be stopping them, especially as the U.S. military deploys 50,000 troops in the region and has airlifted aircraft as reinforcements from Europe.
According to information reported by media outlets this week, President Trump notified Congress on July 10 of the resumption of U.S. military operations against Iran, describing them as "defensive" and "limited" strikes, planned in a way to minimize civilian casualties. Since this notification comes after an interruption due to a ceasefire and the signing of a memorandum of understanding with the Iranian side in June, the ongoing escalation can be considered a new conflict, which gives the American president 60 days of freedom to act before needing to seek congressional approval, analysts note.
On the Iranian side, the Revolutionary Guards now appear to be clearly running operations. Even the statements of the chief negotiators — Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi — have become more aggressive in tone, yet they seem to be fading into the background as the voices of hardliners grow louder. Iran accordingly took the initiative on Friday of announcing the suspension of its memorandum of understanding with the United States.
Divisions within the Iranian regime
It is against this backdrop that rumors of deep internal divisions within the Iranian regime are multiplying, particularly as Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remains more elusive than ever — a situation reflected in the fact that messages are attributed to him without any certainty as to their true origin. The latest such message issued threats toward the Americans, promising them on Saturday "a lesson they would never forget." The week's most notable anecdote came in the form of a statement from an "Iranian source" to the Russian news agency TASS on Saturday: according to this source, Khamenei has no plans to make any public appearance until the war with the Americans is over (!), and when he does, it would be a phone call or a meeting… with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
For now, it is the Revolutionary Guards who are issuing communiqués reporting strikes against Gulf countries, targeting the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and now Jordan. These countries have become daily targets of Iranian missiles and drones, much like the vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Increasingly, American strikes inside Iran and Iranian strikes on neighboring countries are hitting civilian targets, including energy infrastructure. Gulf states condemned these Iranian strikes on Saturday, labeling them "war crimes."
Appearing to keep Hezbollah on the sidelines for now, Iran is attempting to draw Yemen's Houthis into the fight, with its trump card being a potential closure of another maritime chokepoint — the Bab el-Mandeb strait — should Iranian infrastructure be targeted on a large scale.
An incident occurred in this context on Monday: the legitimate Yemeni government struck Sanaa airport, controlled by Houthi rebels, targeting a plane that had arrived from Iran carrying passengers who had attended Ali Khamenei's funeral. The Houthis retaliated by striking an airport in Saudi Arabia. Nevertheless, the Houthi front has not yet truly ignited.
The Iraqi PM's visit to Washington
Against this grim backdrop, some nuances are nonetheless emerging. On one hand, the Americans have not completely shut the door on negotiations, as President Trump emphasized on more than one occasion this week, giving the impression that he prefers talks "in the heat of the moment" over an endless war. That said, any misstep under such circumstances becomes far more dangerous. On Saturday evening, two American soldiers were killed in an Iranian strike on Jordan, bringing the situation dangerously close to a point of no return.
On the other hand, despite what appears to be a suicidal stance, Iran seems intent on avoiding the worst-case scenario — which would explain why it has not yet launched any attacks against Israel since hostilities resumed. And it is not for lack of Israeli willingness to enter the fray: media leaks on Saturday evening reported that Israel had requested to join in the strikes against Iran, a request that was reportedly rejected by the Americans.
It is worth noting in this context that President Trump returned this week to his demand that Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa intervene in Lebanon against Hezbollah. For the time being, these statements have not translated into concrete action — but how long can President al-Sharaa hold out against American pressure?
That said, it is Iraq that has truly dominated the news in recent days. New Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi was given a high-profile reception by President Trump at the White House this week, with numerous lucrative agreements reached between the two sides following their meeting. The press also reported an Iraqi willingness to impose banking restrictions on militias sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury, including Hezbollah. For now, Iraq appears to be skillfully playing both sides — meeting American pressure to the bare minimum while avoiding antagonizing Iran and its affiliated militias, including those operating on Iraqi soil.