The Region is Sitting on a Real Volcano

Tensions in the region are continuing to escalate, increasingly resembling a volcano on the verge of erupting at any moment. Iran turned up the heat further on Thursday, once again wielding the Houthi card in response to American warnings.

Meanwhile, in Lebanon, Hezbollah took its defiance of state institutions a step further, with some of its MPs launching a fierce attack on the President of the Republic to challenge the enforcement of Israel's partial withdrawal from pilot zones in the south of the country and the planned disarmament of the group.

Just hours before the highly anticipated address by US President Donald Trump, scheduled for 1:00 AM GMT on the night of Thursday to Friday (4:00 AM Beirut time), Tehran announced that its military would target infrastructure across the region if the White House chief followed through on his threats to strike Iranian civilian infrastructure.

The warning came from the spokesman for Iran's military high command, quoted by Reuters, who stated that Tehran 'would not tolerate any American interference in the Strait of Hormuz.'

The issue, he said, represents 'a red line' for the Islamic Republic, whose ports have once again been subject to a US naval blockade since it closed that strategic waterway.

Also according to Reuters, citing three sources, Iran reportedly asked the Yemeni Houthi movement to stand ready to 'close the Red Sea oil route through Bab el-Mandeb if the United States strikes Iranian energy infrastructure,' posing a significant new threat to global energy supplies.

The idea was said to have been discussed within the leadership of the Islamic Republic, and the message was conveyed to Iran's Houthi allies, according to two senior Iranian sources and one regional source familiar with the matter, who, Reuters notes, spoke on condition of anonymity.

Iran appears intent on getting ahead of Donald Trump's speech and is betting on a broader escalation of its conflict with the United States in the event of 'enemy strikes.' The Islamic Republic, long a master of proxy warfare, once again played the Houthi card on Thursday.

The leader of the Yemeni group, Abdel-Malik al-Houthi, launched a fierce attack on Saudi Arabia in an audio-visual message, threatening to strike Riyadh should the kingdom attack Houthi targets 'again.'

He condemned what he called an 'unjustified' Saudi strike on Sanaa airport — even though it was his own group that had first launched missiles at an airport in southern Saudi Arabia on Monday evening, drawing a powerful Saudi response.

President Trump's address is expected to mark a turning point in the conflict's trajectory, according to various international media outlets, who note that his last major speech, on April 1st, was filled with 'bombshell' announcements. The White House occupant has billed it as 'a very big announcement.' It is expected to touch on matters related to the US elections scheduled for November, as well as talks with Iran, which are currently deadlocked.

The Pakistani mediator who had been shuttling back and forth to bridge the gaps now appears to be out of work. On Thursday, Islamabad limited itself to calling on Washington and Tehran to return to the negotiating table. That appeal, issued by the spokesman for Pakistan's Foreign Ministry, largely reflects Islamabad's current inability to halt the escalating tensions.

On the ground, the confrontation continues along the same lines: CENTCOM is launching waves of strikes, mostly at night, against Iranian installations.

The Islamic Republic is retaliating by striking American targets in countries across the region, including Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait. U.S. strikes were carried out early Thursday evening against sites near Bandar Abbas, on the Strait of Hormuz.

Weapons for Hezbollah in Lebanon

Meanwhile, tensions are also escalating in Lebanon, where the Lebanese army and Israel are preparing to implement a mechanism for a partial Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones in the south of the country. This is a move to which Hezbollah remains fiercely opposed, as it continues to reject the framework agreement reached between Beirut and Tel Aviv and to violently contest the principle of direct negotiations between the two capitals, which share a common goal: to reduce the pro-Iranian group's capacity for harm and impose a weapons monopoly in Lebanon.

But this prospect is unfolding in a particularly tense climate. Hezbollah still refuses to surrender its weapons, as one of its MPs, Hassan Fadlallah, reaffirmed on Thursday, while Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz was reminding his American counterpart, Pete Hegseth, that Tel Aviv intends to maintain its troops indefinitely in the 'security zones' established in Lebanon, Syria, and the Gaza Strip in order to protect its borders.

The announcement by the Syrian Interior Ministry, which reported the interception at the Syrian-Iraqi border of a truck carrying sophisticated weapons and rockets destined for Hezbollah, has nonetheless lent weight to Israel's argument for justifying the continued presence of its forces in Lebanon.

This latest seizure, far from being an isolated incident according to Damascus, reinforces accusations that Iran is continuing to rearm its primary military proxy in the region, despite international pressure.

It comes as Donald Trump had once again raised the possibility of giving Syria an expanded role in the fight against Hezbollah, which denied 'conducting any activities whatsoever in Syria' in a brief statement worded in very vague terms. The statement was published after the weapons seizure was announced, but makes no mention of it.

It merely refers to 'fabricated information designed to harm [the group] and serve American-Israeli interests.'

Hezbollah MPs, meanwhile, lashed out at President Joseph Aoun and the Lebanese-Israeli framework agreement, which 'Tel Aviv will not succeed in imposing on those who oppose it.' Hassan Fadlallah sharply criticized the decision by Lebanese authorities to disarm the group he belongs to, 'when the weapons it possesses are what worries Israel.'

In the meantime, the Lebanese army has begun reinforcing its presence in the south of the country, patrolling around a dozen villages, including Bint Jbeil, where Israeli forces had previously entered.

On the ground, Tel Aviv continues its limited military operations: an Israeli raid killed two people in Nabatieh el-Faouka during the day, while sporadic bombardments and demolitions of homes were also reported.