Today's Essential

Tensions in the region are continuing to escalate, increasingly resembling a volcano on the verge of erupting at any moment. Iran turned up the heat further on Thursday, once again wielding the Houthi card in response to American warnings. Meanwhile, in Lebanon, Hezbollah took its defiance of state institutions a step further, with some of its MPs launching a fierce attack on the President of the Republic to challenge the enforcement of Israel's partial withdrawal from pilot zones in the south of the country and the planned disarmament of the group. Just hours before the highly anticipated address by US President Donald Trump, scheduled for 1:00 AM GMT on the night of Thursday to Friday (4:00 AM Beirut time), Tehran announced that its military would target infrastructure across the region if the White House chief followed through on his threats to strike Iranian civilian infrastructure.

As Israeli forces continue their intermittent targeted raids in southern Lebanon and systematically dismantle Hezbollah's infrastructure in the region, the sixth round of direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, which concluded Wednesday in Rome under U.S. auspices, appears to have officially and concretely launched the long and perilous process of the IDF's gradual withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Following two days of meetings on Tuesday, July 14, and Wednesday, July 15, in the Italian capital, both authorized American and Lebanese sources described the outcome of this sixth round of Lebanese-Israeli talks as "fruitful" and "positive." The U.S. Embassy in Beirut indicated that concrete measures had been agreed upon for the establishment of the first two pilot zones, which should allow the Lebanese army to deploy in sectors to be vacated by the Israelis.

This Tuesday marks the sixth round of direct talks between Lebanese and Israeli delegations, held this time in a European capital — Rome — rather than Washington. From the very first day, an initial breakthrough: Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar announced from Jerusalem that Israel is ready to "move forward" with the implementation of two "pilot zones" in southern Lebanon, according to AFP. However, under the terms of the June 26 framework agreement, implementation of the zones must begin with an Israeli withdrawal. He described the process, led under US auspices, as the "only way forward." Also according to AFP, the Lebanese delegation "was instructed to demand the immediate start of the withdrawal of Israeli forces from two pilot zones before any further discussion," the Lebanese presidency had indicated on Monday evening.

On Monday, July 13, Yemen is dominating the regional news agenda as the fragile truce reached in April 2022 is coming under intense strain following an Iranian power play that has reignited the Yemeni front. This military gambit is attribuable to the continuing escalation in the conflict between Tehran and Washington, after the United States decided to reinstate the blockade it had previously imposed on Iranian ports. Specifically, the Yemeni government carried out strikes on the runways of Sanaa International Airport, which is under Houthi control, in an attempt to prevent an Iranian aircraft carrying a delegation from the Iran-backed Shiite group from landing. The delegation was returning from Tehran, where it had attended the funeral of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Despite repeated warnings from Yemeni authorities, who had instructed the group to return aboard a flight operated by Yemenia, the country’s national carrier, the delegation insisted on flying back on the Iranian aircraft, even though Yemeni airspace is closed to Iranian aviation. The aircraft nonetheless continued its flight despite the government’s objections, but reportedly landed in Hodeidah, the Houthi-controlled Red Sea port city in western Yemen.

Tensions between the Americans and Iranians had been gradually escalating for several days, against a backdrop of Iranian strikes on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The worst-case scenario materialized overnight Wednesday into Thursday: the Americans launched heavy strikes on Iran, as US President Donald Trump had threatened the day before. Iran, true to form, fired missiles at several Gulf countries, including Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar — and this time added Jordan to the list. Jordan intercepted 10 missiles fired at its territory around midday. A significant escalation, to say the least.

Is the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran entering its final days – or even its final hours? The question has taken on renewed urgency since Wednesday morning, as tensions between the two capitals have escalated sharply amid a new military standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. Since the end of the Israeli-American military campaign against its territory, the Islamic Republic has pursued a policy of brinkmanship, pushing its provocation to the limit in an effort to extract as many concessions as possible from President Donald Trump under the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) the two countries signed last June. Tehran appears to be betting that Trump’s preference for a diplomatic resolution to the conlict – driven by economic, financial and U.S. domestic political considerations – in order to push the envelope further without fearing that negotiations, which are expected to resume in the coming weeks, will be called into question.

The week is getting off to a relatively quiet start. The region’s main issues remain temporarily on hold, from the possible resumption of talks between Washington and Tehran to Israel’s withdrawal from two “pilot zones” in southern Lebanon. The pause is due in part to the official funeral ceremonies for Iran’s former Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, which conclude Thursday, as well as the NATO summit scheduled for Tuesday, July 7, and Wednesday, July 8, in Ankara. The gathering carries added significance as U.S. President Donald Trump is set to attend following months of tension with America’s European allies.

On the surface, the situation in Lebanon — and, to a lesser extent, across the region — appears to be on "pause"… However, appearances can be deceiving, because in practice the pieces of the puzzle are gradually and quietly being put into place by players who are clearly in control of the game. To grasp the true scope of the game currently being played out in the Levant and well beyond, one need only draw connections between the maneuvers and actions — or "moves," as English speakers would say — of the decision-makers working to reshape the region's new geopolitical landscape. If one were to identify a broad guiding thread running through current developments, it would be the increasingly pronounced isolation of the Iranian regime on the international stage.

Thursday’s headlines in Lebanon were dominated by the visit of Syrian Foreign Minister Assaad Chibani to Beirut, where he met with all of Lebanon’s leading political and religious figures, as well as representatives of the country’s main sectarian parties – with the notable exception of Hezbollah. For those who lived through the years of Syrian tutelage over Lebanon – or occupation, as some prefer to describe it – the visit was anything but ordinary, as were the statements that accompanied it. One of the most noteworthy came from President Joseph Aoun, who said he remained “committed to fraternal relations” between the two countries, founded on “coordination, cooperation, and non-interference in each other’s internal affairs.”

Has the uncertainty surrounding the long-announced resumption of U.S.-Iran talks in Doha over the past two days brought negotiations back to square one? Probably not, though it’s a fair question to ask. The picture is more nuanced, but the road ahead is far from easy. Tehran and Washington seem reluctant to make any further concessions beyond those already made under the memorandum of understanding they signed on June 18. While Doha is expected to host U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner today, alongside an Iranian technical delegation that will be joined on Wednesday by Iran’s deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs, Kazem Gharibabadi, Qatari officials say that no direct high-level meeting with Iranian officials has been scheduled for now.