Iran Conflict: Verbal Escalation Adds to Military Operations

The situation in Iran continues to escalate on every front. Tensions are rising both in the political and media spheres and on the battlefield. The U.S. military is continuing its strikes against the Revolutionary Guards’ strategic facilities and transportation networks, while the Guards are retaliating by targeting—not Israel—but Arab countries, primarily the Gulf states.

In recent days, Revolutionary Guard attacks have extended to Jordan, where two American soldiers were killed, four others wounded, and a seventh remains missing while participating in air defense operations aimed at intercepting missiles and drones. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claims that its attacks on Arab countries are intended to strike U.S. military bases located there. However, recent events contradict that claim, as Iranian strikes over the past two days targeted, among other sites in Kuwait, a power plant and a seawater desalination facility.

Meanwhile, over the past 48 hours, a U.S. air bridge has been detected transporting dozens of aerial refueling aircraft as well as F-16 and F-35 fighter jets from Europe to Israel. These aircraft had been redeployed to Europe following the signing of the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran but have now been sent back to the Middle East.

At the same time, the U.S. military is reinforcing its naval blockade of Iranian ports. On Saturday, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that five commercial vessels attempting to bypass the blockade had been forced to turn back. The impact of the blockade has become even more severe as it has been accompanied by the destruction of key land transportation infrastructure, including seven bridges and railway lines, particularly around Bandar Abbas.

New Message Attributed to Khamenei

This renewed military activity has been accompanied since the end of the week by a sharp escalation in rhetoric. In a written message attributed—without independent verification—to the elusive Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, the United States was threatened with "a lesson it will never forget" should it continue its attacks against Iran. The statement also declared that "Donald Trump's signature on the memorandum of understanding has no value." This echoes remarks made on Saturday by a senior Iranian official, who warned that "if U.S. attacks continue over the next two or three days, Iran will move from the defensive phase to the offensive stage." He added that Iran had decided to "suspend all of its commitments under the memorandum of understanding."

Politically, the message attributed to Khamenei is significant because it calls on Iranian leaders to tone down their internal disputes while urging the population to moderate its criticism of the authorities. This dual appeal comes as signs of growing divisions between the regime's hardline faction and its so-called pragmatic camp have become increasingly visible, according to American and Pakistani officials.

Aoun in Washington

Against the backdrop of these mounting regional tensions, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun began an official multi-day visit to Washington on Saturday. On Sunday, he is expected to meet Secretary of State Marco Rubio. On Tuesday, July 21, he will be received at the White House by President Donald Trump to discuss ways to implement the framework agreement signed with Israel on June 26. The two presidents are expected to focus particularly on southern Lebanon, where the Israeli army continues its targeted raids and the demolition of Hezbollah infrastructure.