The Mullahs' Regime Is Gradually Losing its Cards

On the surface, the situation in Lebanon — and, to a lesser extent, across the region — appears to be on "pause"… However, appearances can be deceiving, because in practice the pieces of the puzzle are gradually and quietly being put into place by players who are clearly in control of the game.

To grasp the true scope of the game currently being played out in the Levant and well beyond, one need only draw connections between the maneuvers and actions — or "moves," as English speakers would say — of the decision-makers working to reshape the region's new geopolitical landscape.

If one were to identify a broad guiding thread running through current developments, it would be the increasingly pronounced isolation of the Iranian regime on the international stage.

Reuters reported on Friday, July 3, that NATO leaders, gathered in Ankara, are expected to declare that Iran must never be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons.

But even more damaging for Tehran, NATO will explicitly call on the Islamic Republic to "fully respect freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz."

The European Union also adopted a firm stance along the same lines this week, rejecting any Iranian attempt to impose a transit fee — under the guise of "services rendered" — on vessels using this international waterway.

This last point is currently the main battle cry of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iran's key power centers.

Speaking in a threatening tone laced with insulting arrogance toward the Trump administration, Iran's Parliament Speaker and chief nuclear negotiator Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf bluntly declared on Friday: "We will not allow the United States (!) to interfere in the Strait of Hormuz, and we will continue implementing navigation rules in the strait."

Iran's stance on this issue is increasingly infuriating the US administration, prompting an American official to say 48 hours ago that "President Donald Trump's patience with Iran is beginning to wear thin."

Other senior US officials told the Axios news site that American negotiators have made clear to Iranian delegates at this week's talks in Doha that Iran's insistence on imposing a transit fee in the Strait of Hormuz risks torpedoing the framework agreement between Washington and Tehran.

The firm position taken by the Trump administration on this matter has the full backing of the EU, further deepening the Islamic Republic's isolation.

These snags in the negotiation process with Tehran were likely raised during the phone call President Trump had on Friday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who may be received at the White House in the near future.

Lebanon: Iran's trump card

The second trump card to which the Iranian regime is desperately clinging — while wallowing in a state of complete denial in the face of new realities — is Lebanon.

Mr. Ghalibaf pressed the point on this front, firmly putting the "Lebanon chapter" back on the table — referring to the memorandum of understanding signed with Washington in mid-June, as well as the agreement recently reached in Switzerland with US Vice President JD Vance — which reportedly grants Iran a direct role in the process of resolving the situation in the South, thereby reinforcing its grip on the Lebanese chessboard.

In a statement made on Friday, Mr. Ghalibaf unabashedly invited "all Lebanese parties to work toward implementing the Lebanon-related provisions of the memorandum of understanding (signed with Washington), as doing so would prevent discord"(!)

It should be recalled, however, that this Iranian attempt to reassert its tutelage over Lebanon came to nothing, following the framework agreement signed in mid-June by Lebanon and Israel in Washington, under the auspices of Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

This roadmap provides for a gradual mechanism under close American supervision, with the ultimate goal of withdrawing Israeli forces from southern Lebanon and deploying the Lebanese army, concurrent with the dismantling of Hezbollah's militant infrastructure.

The sovereignty-driven dimension of this framework agreement — which completely decouples the Lebanese settlement process from the American-Iranian talks in Islamabad — was underscored once again on Friday by President Joseph Aoun and Lebanon's foreign minister, Joe Raggi.

Receiving a university delegation and representatives of the Order of Physicians and the Lebanese Maronite Order, the head of state reaffirmed that the document signed between Lebanon and Israel enables the Lebanese state to take the southern file back into its own hands, ensuring that Lebanon alone is master of its decisions on this front and that it negotiates any settlement itself, rather than having a third country do so on its behalf.

In a thinly veiled jab at Hezbollah, President Aoun noted that those who oppose the framework agreement signed with Israel react this way "because they have grown accustomed to living under tutelage…"

Echoing the same sentiment, Lebanese Foreign Minister Joe Raggi reaffirmed the government's determination to take sole responsibility — free from any foreign diktat — for bringing the war to an end.

Faced with the firm stance adopted by the Lebanese authorities, the Islamic Republic sees the Lebanese card slipping from its grasp and is consequently attempting to torpedo the framework agreement with Israel by orchestrating opposition to the document and trying to remotely stoke street unrest in order to bring down Nawaf Salam's government — with the aim of securing the agreement's cancellation, which would pave the way for a revival of Iranian involvement in Lebanon's internal political game.

But here too, President Aoun was very firm on Friday, stressing that resorting to street pressure and internal strife in order to bring down the government constitutes a "red line that cannot be crossed."

The multinational force project

These attempts by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to reactivate their tutelage over Lebanon are running up against another major obstacle: the proposed establishment of a multinational force set to take over from UNIFIL, whose mandate expires at the end of the year. French and Italian leaders have already begun taking steps in this regard and enjoy the full support of the United States. A senior French official moreover paid tribute on Friday to the "positive role played by the US in Lebanon."

And to further cement this crisis-resolution dynamic — one that is unfolding without the Islamic Republic — the European Union has taken care to emphasize its full support for the Lebanese-Israeli framework agreement and for the choices made by the Lebanese authorities in this regard, stressing the need to implement the terms of the document signed in Washington.

The Iranian regime thus finds itself stripped of all its main cards, one by one.

Confronted with such a situation, the radical wing of the regime is baring its claws, as illustrated by the frontal attacks it launches almost daily against the so-called "moderate" wing — most specifically against the sitting president and the speaker of parliament.

And in the wake of such setbacks, certain political circles in Iran are reportedly floating a plan aimed at giving the Revolutionary Guards a new lease on life, albeit in a more "acceptable" or "tolerable" guise.

Except that only a few naive or shamelessly opportunistic factions can still be fooled by such political posturing coming from the radical wing of the Islamic Republic.