Persistent escalation between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz

Tensions between the Americans and Iranians had been gradually escalating for several days, against a backdrop of Iranian strikes on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

The worst-case scenario materialized overnight Wednesday into Thursday: the Americans launched heavy strikes on Iran, as US President Donald Trump had threatened the day before.

Iran, true to form, fired missiles at several Gulf countries, including Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar — and this time added Jordan to the list. Jordan intercepted 10 missiles fired at its territory around midday. A significant escalation, to say the least.

The American strikes on Iranian soil are the heaviest in months: the province of Bushehr, in particular, was targeted by missiles that struck within the perimeter of the nuclear site located in the region, according to Iranian media. A provincial official denied mid-afternoon that Kharg Island — through which the bulk of Iranian oil is exported — had been hit.

US Central Command announced in a post on X that it had struck nearly 90 military targets in Iran by Thursday morning. The Iranian regime reported 14 deaths and 78 injuries over the past two days, and accused the United States of war crimes for what it called 'strikes on civilian infrastructure,' specifically bridges and the railway leading to the city of Mashhad.

The rhetoric matched the renewed tensions on the ground, this time coming from Iran's chief negotiator, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf.

He declared that 'the Strait of Hormuz will only reopen on Iran's terms, not under the pressure of American threats.' Indeed, the strait remained closed yesterday due to the tensions, reflecting an unchanged Iranian stance.

There was no indication on Thursday that tensions would ease or that negotiations would resume anytime soon, even as Donald Trump said during the day that 'the Iranians have called and want to make a deal,' while adding that he was no longer confident in 'their willingness to honor any agreement.'

Pakistani and Qatari mediators worked to push for a return to calm. But broadly speaking, Iran appears increasingly isolated. Echoing statements made the day before by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte — who had called for firmness against the Iranian regime — French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said Thursday that it was Iran that had violated its agreement with the United States, and that its 'maneuvers' must stop if negotiations were to continue.

In the meantime, Iranians pressed on with the drawn-out ordeal of the endless funeral ceremonies for their assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his family.

The coffins arrived in Mashhad during the day for burial — an event somewhat overshadowed by the American strikes. Yet crowds still turned out, along with the usual bellicose chants calling for Trump's death.

The Israelis, who have been allied with the Americans throughout this conflict with Iran, made no official comment on the latest escalation. However, according to leaks in Israeli media, Israeli sources confirmed that the army remained ready to respond to any potential Iranian attack.

A diplomatic flurry in Beirut

As usual, Lebanon is acting as a sounding board for events unfolding across the region. The Lebanese capital was the scene of a flurry of diplomatic activity on Thursday, with a series of visits by US Ambassador Michael Issa alongside a tour by an Iranian delegation.

Issa's main visit was to Baabda, where he met with President Joseph Aoun to deliver the official invitation for his visit to Washington on July 21. He also took the opportunity to discuss the implementation of the framework agreement signed by Israel, Lebanon, and the United States, particularly regarding the mechanism for the Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones, where the IDF is to be replaced by the Lebanese army "without leaving a vacuum."

The key announcement was that an American delegation would be arriving within the coming days to oversee the process. Mr. Issa also met with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berry and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam.

As for the Lebanese-Israeli negotiations, all eyes are on Rome on July 15 and 16, a change of venue that has unsettled the Lebanese side, which fears a less effective American involvement — previous rounds having taken place in Washington.

The change of venue does not signal a lesser American commitment, but is due to logistical considerations, as the U.S. Ambassador assured President Aoun on Thursday.

In turn, the Lebanese president asked him to pressure Israel into complying with the terms of the framework agreement signed with Lebanon in June.

On the ground, the Israeli army continues its destruction in occupied villages, targeting both buildings and tunnels.

Thursday was marked by a sharp statement from Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, responding to Trump's remarks the previous day regarding the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. "We did not ask anyone's permission to enter Lebanon, and we will remain there until Hezbollah is disarmed," he declared.

For now, Hezbollah is not retaliating against Israeli operations. Concerns about a new escalation in southern Lebanon — should Iran find itself in a difficult position in its confrontation with the United States — were expressed by various sources in the media.

The other diplomatic tour on Thursday was that of an Iranian delegation led by the Deputy Foreign Minister. It was received by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berry, to whom it reaffirmed Iran's support for Lebanon.

From Deputy Prime Minister Tarek Mitri, the delegation heard remarks reaffirming Lebanon's resolve to stand against any occupation and foreign interference.

These statements echoed those of Lebanese Foreign Minister Joe Rajji, who was visiting Cyprus on Thursday and reiterated that Lebanon must stop paying the price for wars it did not choose, and that no single party should ever again monopolize decisions of war and peace — a clear reference to Hezbollah. For the Iranians, times have certainly changed…

In this context, it is also worth noting the visits by the Russian Ambassador to President Aoun and to Interior Minister Ahmad Hajjar.

Syria removed from the U.S. terrorism list

Another major development on Thursday: the U.S. president announced his intention to remove Syria from the list of state sponsors of terrorism. Following Trump's meeting with Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa the previous day in Turkey, on the sidelines of the NATO summit, this move is the culmination of a process that should allow the young Syrian government to attract greater investment and international engagement.

On the Iraqi front, the disarmament of armed groups and the fight against corruption continue to be pursued in tandem. A curious discovery was made on Thursday: an enormous sum of money, stolen from the Treasury, was found hidden inside a rainwater drainage pipe…

In Iraq as well, a strike was carried out against a group of Iranian Kurdish dissidents in Iraqi Kurdistan. This is not the first time these groups have been targeted by the Tehran regime, which seeks to maintain its grip on Iraq as much as on Lebanon.