Today's Essential

It is a day of talks par excellence. In Rome, the third and final meeting of the seventh round of direct negotiations between Beirut and Tel Aviv concluded on a more or less positive note, though still without a definitive outcome. In the Gulf, Tehran and Muscat are reportedly on the verge of announcing a provisional agreement on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. In both cases, a resolution is certainly not imminent, especially since the underlying problem — namely Iran's destabilizing influence in the region, and more specifically that of pro-Iranian militias — persists, as Syrian Foreign Minister Assaad al-Shaibani rightly pointed out during his visit to Ankara on Thursday. Recent developments in Yemen also support this assessment. On Thursday, the Houthi militia claimed attacks against government forces in response, according to its leader, to the recent reinforcement of Yemeni troops backed by Saudi Arabia. These attacks killed at least 38 people, making it the deadliest toll since the 2022 ceasefire that had ended more than seven years of devastating war in this Arabian Peninsula country. After his meeting with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan, Assaad al-Shaibani announced that Damascus and Ankara agreed to "support efforts aimed at strengthening stability in Iraq and Lebanon," based on the principle that "restoring the monopoly on arms in both countries would promote stability across the entire region." He also emphasized the importance of "strengthening security coordination with neighboring countries and controlling borders in order to address the threats posed by armed groups operating outside state authority." While Iraq is fully engaged in a — admittedly complex — process of disarming militias, which have reportedly redeployed their forces on the ground amid fears of a renewed security escalation in the country, Lebanon appears to have put this issue on the back burner. For Beirut, the priority remains southern Lebanon and all the issues surrounding the disastrous consequences of the war into which Hezbollah dragged the country. According to information reported by Lebanese media regarding the latest round of direct talks — spread over three days and divided into three sessions covering political, legal, and military matters — the Lebanese delegation insisted on the continued gradual Israeli withdrawal from the southern part of the country, based on the bilateral agreement of June and the cessation of military operations. No final agreement could be reached on the issue of "pilot zones," which are currently limited to three, and which Beirut wishes to expand to additional sectors, including Zawtar al-Sharqiyeh. The agency al-Markaziya , citing sources from the presidential palace of Baabda, noted that the Israeli delegation requested a detailed presentation of the proposed sectors in order to examine their geographic characteristics. The Lebanese document is to be submitted to the political authority in Israel, according to al-Markaziya , which, citing the same sources, notes that an agreement was reached, however, on the references and procedures that should govern the coordination mechanisms between the three parties (Lebanese, Israeli, and American) for the implementation phase of the remaining mechanism. The two delegations also wrapped up the issue of the "guarantor third party" — meaning the entity responsible for ensuring on the ground that the measures taken comply with the provisions of the Lebanese-Israeli agreement of June. They agreed on a "shortlist" of candidates from which the entity tasked with assuming this role will be chosen. They also agreed to bring the matter before the United Nations Security Council in order to secure the adoption of a new resolution that will serve as a legal framework for the period following the mandate of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). The prisoner file, which was discussed at length, is proving more problematic as it involves an exchange, according to the same sources. Lebanon has a precise list of names that it handed over to the Israeli delegation, which in turn provided a list of the names of missing Israelis and Lebanese Jews. However, Beirut does not have any data on this matter. In any case, the Rome discussions are considered "positive" according to Baabda. Steps are even underway to involve the International Committee of the Red Cross in the process. Talks are expected to resume on the 1 st of September. This date remains tentative, however. It will be confirmed depending on how diplomatic contacts evolve and on the preparation of the files under review. Thanks to American intervention, the Rome negotiations were not derailed by the military escalation in southern Lebanon, where the Israeli army carried out successive violent raids against Mansouri and Burj Shamali, in the Tyre district. This surge in violence, which followed the deaths of two Israeli soldiers in a booby-trapped building in Majdal Zoun, was able to be addressed within the framework of the monitoring mechanism established since November 27 of last year, following the ill-fated "war of support" for Hamas, also launched by Hezbollah against Israel. On the sidelines of the negotiations, President of the Republic Joseph Aoun acknowledged to journalists accredited to Baabda that "the road will be long" before reaching an agreement that would shield Lebanon from further destruction, but that the state is "determined to see it through." An Iranian-Omani agreement? At the regional level, Iran and the Sultanate of Oman appear to be on the verge of announcing an agreement on the management of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the pan-Arab channel Al-Hadath, the agreement in question — of which Washington has reportedly been informed — would require ships to use a corridor running along Iran's coast on the outbound journey and along Oman's coast on the return, in exchange for what are described as service fees. Discussions are said to be in their final stage, according to Iranian diplomatic spokesman Esmail Baghaei, as quoted by the official IRNA news agency. However, any reopening of Hormuz — which Tehran has locked down — will depend on the actions of Washington, which is imposing a blockade on Iranian ports, he specified. Yet this reopening risks becoming problematic if information provided by the Iranian agency Fars is confirmed. According to this outlet, a bill is currently under consideration in the Iranian Parliament that would ban ships flying Israeli or American flags, as well as those belonging to countries that host American military bases, from passing through the strait. This development, if confirmed, would be a further indicator of Iran's internal divisions, which, according to U.S. Vice President JD Vance, are at the root of complications in bilateral talks that are apparently continuing indirectly through Qatari and Pakistani mediators. Former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani sharply criticized in this context "a minority seeking to drag the country into war," while reports circulating in various media outlets describe appointments and restructuring attempts aimed at consolidating the authority of the hardline faction within Iran.

The seventh round of direct Lebanese-Israeli talks got underway Tuesday in Rome at the U.S. Embassy. The negotiations, described as difficult, are set to continue over three days, during which the Lebanese and Israeli delegations are expected to agree on the next stage of the mechanism envisaged for the gradual withdrawal of Tel Aviv’s forces and the deployment of the Lebanese Army. Beirut has made this issue a particular priority, while Israel remains chiefly focused on Lebanon’s mechanism envisaged for Hezbollah’s disarmament. The Iran-backed group returned to the offensive on Tuesday, lashing out at the Lebanese authorities and taking particular aim at President Joseph Aoun. Breaking nearly a month of silence, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem accused the president of being “biased” and of playing into Israel’s hands. He denounced what he described as a policy that “consists (according to him) of making free concessions to Israel and serving the interests of that state rather than those of Lebanon.” This speech could easily have been headlined, The Lebanese-Israeli Talks Through Tehran’s Eyes – especially as he took the opportunity to pay tribute to Iran. In his view, Lebanon’s salvation can come only through an Iranian-American memorandum of understanding, which, in practical terms, means that Lebanon should remain under the control of the mullahs’ regime. That prospect remains out of the question for the Lebanese authorities, which are instead fully committed to a process aimed at freeing the country from all forms of external tutelage and restoring the state’s authority and standing. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, moreover, echoed that longstanding Lebanese position in a forceful response to Iran’s spokesman in Lebanon, putting him firmly in his place by stressing in a post on his X account that “a group that has usurped the state’s authority over decisions of war and peace for the benefit of a foreign axis (to which it belongs) is the last one entitled to lecture others on patriotism.” For the prime minister, if anyone has done Israel a service, it is Hezbollah. Mr. Salam pointed in this regard to the “absurd” wars into which the group dragged the country “unilaterally,” disregarding the national interest and thereby giving Israel “a pretext to attack Lebanon, destroy its villages, kill and displace its population, and violate its sovereignty.” A New Chapter With Syria Naim Qassem’s speech was nevertheless notable for announcing Hezbollah’s willingness to open a new chapter with the regime of Ahmad al-Sharaa in Syria, even though his group had fought against it alongside Bashar al-Assad’s forces during the 2011 war. This tactical opening can only be explained by the weakening and isolation of Hezbollah, which appears ready to do whatever it takes to survive. Unfortunately for Hezbollah, events on the ground on Tuesday showed that the Iran-backed group is seeking to preserve its supply corridor with Iran through Syria. While Naim Qassem was praising the opening of a new chapter between his movement and Damascus, the Lebanese Army announced the seizure of Grad-type rockets intended for Hezbollah in the border area near Ersal, in the Bekaa Valley, which had been smuggled in from Syria. This was the latest in a long series of weapons seizures involving supplies headed to the Iran-backed group, alongside the discovery of tunnels and illegal border routes, all serving the same purpose: arms and drug trafficking. The August 4 Commemoration Another stroke of bad luck for Hezbollah: the seizure coincided with the sixth anniversary of the apocalyptic Beirut port explosion, on August 4, 2020, where hundreds of tons of ammonium nitrate had been stored. By announcing on July 28, 2026, the discovery of nearly 4,000 tons of the same explosive material near the village of Houla in southern Lebanon, UNIFIL reinforced suspicions that had been fueled for years of links between Hezbollah and the highly murky affair involving the storage of 2,700 tons of ammonium nitrate at the Beirut port (which was controlled by Hezbollah at the time), only a few hundred tons of which exploded on August 4, 2020. The indictment that Tarek Bitar, the investigating judge at the Judicial Council, is expected to issue by December, according to Beirut Bar Association President Imad Martinos, should shed light on this case, which many officials under former President Michel Aoun sought to suppress by every possible means. His successor, Joseph Aoun, has taken the opposite approach, urging the judge to make public as soon as possible the indictment submitted to Cassation Prosecutor General Mohammed Saab. The latter must issue his written opinion after reviewing the document, examining the charges, and assessing the next steps in the proceedings, before returning it to Tarek Bitar. Since Joseph Aoun took over as head of state and Nawaf Salam was appointed to lead the government, the investigation into the August 4 explosion has followed a normal judicial course. Will it mark the end of impunity in Lebanon? Many hope it will. In any case, the authorities’ conduct reflects a serious commitment to pursuing the case. A national day of mourning was declared across the country, with flags lowered to half-mast, particularly at the presidential palace, while ministers took part in gatherings held in memory of the victims. At the gathering held late in the afternoon near the port, at the time of day when the explosion occurred, the victims’ families announced that they would continue their campaign until the full truth about the case was uncovered and those responsible were punished. A deal over the Strait of Hormuz? On the regional front, the day was marked by a sense of déjà vu, with the announcement of an imminent agreement on the Strait of Hormuz, even as all previous agreements concluded and signed between the United States and Iran have failed to be honored by the Iranian regime. It was in this context that the Qatari and Pakistani mediators reported “ongoing efforts” to resume dialogue between Washington and Tehran, while the United States announced an upcoming agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been at the heart of renewed hostilities between in recent weeks. The agreement could be reached “Tuesday or Wednesday,” according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was expected to confirm it shortly afterward. According to Qatar, these efforts are being pursued without any direct talks scheduled between the two sides. Whatever happens, tensions remain high in the region, where Yemen’s Houthis targeted Najran Airport in Saudi Arabia. Overnight Monday into Tuesday, a cargo ship attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz was struck by a projectile that triggered a fire. One crew member is missing, according to British security company Vanguard.

Monday, August 3, was dominated by the fallout from U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement the previous day that he had called off the large-scale strikes against Iran that had been planned for the weekend. Trump had previously said the operation would be “the most powerful since World War II.” On Monday morning, Trump announced that talks with Iran would take place later that evening. But Tehran was quick to contradict the White House. Speaking through the Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Teheran said it was not engaged in talks with Washington, insisting that its only discussions were with Oman over the division of responsibilities in the Strait of Hormuz. By Monday evening, Trump had returned to a more confrontational tone toward Iran. “The Iranian authorities are as deceitful as they come,” he said. Iran “has a choice between a deal or total capitulation,” he added, according to AFP. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s role in Trump’s latest policy reversal came into sharper focus. In a statement, the Saudi Foreign Ministry said Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan had spoken with his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi. According to the ministry, the two men discussed “de-escalation.” The call echoed an earlier intervention by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s overnight conversation with Trump from Saturday into Sunday, during which he urged the U.S. president to prioritize diplomacy and put the planned strikes against Tehran on hold. Despite appearances, diplomatic contacts were reportedly continuing at a steady pace behind the scenes. According to MTV, Araghchi held lengthy discussions on diplomatic prospects with his Pakistani counterpart, who has emerged as the principal mediator since the start of the U.S.-Iran negotiations. Attention on Monday was also focused on Gaza, where the Peace Council is expected to begin overseeing Hamas’ disarmament. But signs of strain are already beginning to emerge. In its first response to the agreement announced by Trump and approved by Hamas, Israel voiced its “concerns” to Washington. “The version made public does not reflect Israel’s position,” Doron Spielman, spokesperson for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office, said in comments carried by AFP. Lebanese Delegation Heads to Rome Lebanon is preparing for a seventh round of direct talks with Israel, scheduled for Tuesday at the U.S. Embassy in Rome. The negotiations are taking place in an increasingly tense atmosphere, amid continued Israeli operations in the south and mounting criticism of President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. Differences also appear to be widening between the two delegations, with the Lebanese side demanding tangible results and announcements on new pilot areas. These zones are expected to pave the way for a gradual Israeli withdrawal and the deployment of the Lebanese army. The Israelis, however, appear reluctant to consider further withdrawals. Not to mention the approaching parliamentary elections, which are making the Israeli prime minister less inclined to offer additional concessions that could cost him votes. One statement that deserves attention came from U.S. Ambassador to Beirut Michel Issa. In a message posted on X, he immediately welcomed the fact that the talks in Rome were “continuing.” He stressed that the text of an agreement is one thing, while its implementation is another. He also warned against any “rush” in implementing the agreement, saying that the objective was to ensure that the populations they seek to protect would ultimately be protected. Was this a message to the Lebanese urging them to lower their demands? The next round of negotiations will tell.

False alarm or calculated bluff? Several alarming statements were made Saturday evening about the imminent threat of a large-scale American attack on Iran. The resumption of fighting in early July derailed the memorandum of understanding signed in mid-June, which was meant to pave the way for peace talks. On Thursday, Pakistan, acting as mediator, stated that the warring parties were in negotiations aimed at de-escalation, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and the United States resumed their exchanges of overnight strikes this week after several days of relative calm, but no attacks have been reported since the night of Friday to Saturday. But faced with the stagnation of the situation, and in the absence of any genuine willingness to negotiate on Tehran's part, the Trump administration wants to put an end to a tense political and security situation whose economic consequences are being felt worldwide. The most serious warning came from U.S. embassies in several Middle Eastern countries, which cautioned American citizens on Saturday about a possible "escalation" of the regional conflict and urged them to be prepared to leave, as President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran with force. According to American media outlets, Washington is considering new large-scale bombings this weekend, targeting energy infrastructure in particular, but according to U.S. network CBS, citing multiple anonymous sources, Donald Trump has not yet given the green light. The U.S. president again threatened on Friday to strike Iran "very hard," as the country, since hostilities resumed in early July, has resumed targeting Washington's allied nations and American installations in the region. The alerts directed at U.S. nationals — versions of which were posted Saturday on the social media accounts of embassies in Amman, Abu Dhabi, Jerusalem, Muscat, Kuwait, Baghdad, Riyadh, Doha, and Beirut — urge American citizens to check information regarding their flights and to follow local authorities' security guidelines. "Americans in the Middle East should currently exercise caution and heightened vigilance, and prepare for possible flight cancellations, periodic airspace closures, and potential travel disruptions," the alert states. In Lebanon, non-essential embassy staff have been relocated. "The Iranian regime is unpredictable, as demonstrated by its recent decisions to attack areas of the region without warning or provocation, as well as to extend its attacks to areas that had not previously been targeted (such as Egypt)," reads a message posted on embassy websites. On Wednesday, a drone struck a gas tanker owned by an American company while it was docked at an Egyptian port. Egypt is conducting an investigation but has, at this stage, not accused any group of being responsible for the attack. The Iranian military, for its part, accused Washington of "stoking tensions" in the region and warned: "Any country serving as a defensive shield for criminal and aggressive America will be engulfed in the flames of war."

The explosions generated shockwaves equivalent to a magnitude 3.2 earthquake: the Israeli army carried out massive explosions near Beaufort Castle in southern Lebanon on Thursday night, drawing condemnation from President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. The head of state went so far as to denounce "an extremely dangerous escalation" and "a direct threat" to the implementation of the framework agreement concluded in June between Lebanon and Israel under U.S. auspices. While the United States had confirmed on Monday that new talks between Israel and Lebanon would be held in Rome from August 4 to 6, aimed in part at expanding the process, the presidency lamented in a statement that "the timing of these aggressions sends negative messages and undermines international efforts to consolidate stability," just days before those new negotiations. 700 tons of explosives Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam condemned "Israel's ongoing aggressions in the South, in the form of explosions, bombardments and systematic destruction," including "damage to archaeological sites." (AFP) In a joint statement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that the army had destroyed "terrorist tunnels in the Beaufort area" using around 700 tons of explosives. They stated that the explosions came in response to "a flagrant ceasefire violation by Hezbollah" on Wednesday. The Israeli army had accused Hezbollah on Wednesday of violating the ceasefire by launching an explosive drone at an Israeli military vehicle in the south of the country. (AFP) Beaufort Castle, a Crusader-era fortress located in the southern area occupied by Israel, was added to UNESCO's List of World Heritage in Danger last week. According to Lebanon's Ministry of Culture, the explosions "may have caused damage to the surroundings of the fortress," the full extent of which "can only be assessed following an on-site inspection" — which is currently impossible. Aerial photo taken by the Armée du Levant in 1936, colorized by AI. (Wikimedia Commons) Riad Salamé placed in detention at a hospital In a separate development, former Banque du Liban governor Riad Salamé, who faces embezzlement charges, has been placed under police-supervised detention in a hospital where he was admitted after suffering a health episode. Governor of the Banque du Liban (BDL) from 1993 to July 2023, Riad Salamé, 76, faces multiple charges in Lebanon and abroad, but has consistently denied any wrongdoing. He was due to appear in court on Thursday in connection with a complaint filed by the new governor, Karim Souaid, for embezzlement of the institution's funds, illicit enrichment, and money laundering. Having failed to appear at the hearing, Riad Salamé was subsequently the subject of a summons warrant issued by a judge, but ultimately decided to go to the courthouse voluntarily, accompanied by his lawyer, a judicial source said. He then "suffered a health episode on his way to the Palace of Justice," the source added, noting that the hearing had been postponed indefinitely. Later, after authorities were unable to locate him at his registered addresses or at any hospital, the Attorney General at the Court of Cassation issued a new warrant for his arrest. Riad Salamé was eventually found on Friday at a hospital outside Beirut. The judge ordered that "security measures be reinforced in the wing where he is staying" as well as at the hospital's entrances, and that he be considered "in detention," the judicial source added. Riad Salamé is accused by his critics of being one of the key figures responsible for Lebanon's financial collapse. Gaza: Hamas confirms a deal on its disarmament On the regional front, Hamas confirmed on Friday that it had accepted a deal calling for its disarmament and a gradual Israeli withdrawal from Gaza — the second phase of a US-led plan to end the war between the Palestinian Islamist movement and Israel. Nearly twenty-four hours after Donald Trump announced the agreement — a major diplomatic breakthrough for him at a time when the United States remains entangled in its war with Iran — the Israeli government had yet to officially respond. Far-right Israeli minister Itamar Ben Gvir, however, denounced it as "unacceptable for Israel." The deal, a fifteen-point roadmap published Friday by the "Peace Council," calls for both sides to halt military operations and for the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) — tasked with managing daily life during the transition period — to be allowed into the territory. This body, made up of Palestinian technocrats, is currently based in Egypt, as Israel has been blocking its access to Gaza. The NCAG will gradually take charge, according to a set timeline, of the process of dismantling and storing Hamas's heavy weapons, military production sites, weapons depots, and tunnel network — with no weapons to be handed over to Israel or to any non-Palestinian organizations. The process will be tied to a phased Israeli withdrawal. Implementation of the agreement will be overseen by an International Verification Committee (IVC). The text also provides for the temporary deployment in Gaza of the International Stabilization Force (ISF), currently being formed as part of Donald Trump's plan, to monitor compliance with the ceasefire and ensure the delivery of humanitarian aid. The "Peace Council's" senior representative for Gaza, Nikolai Mladenov, stressed that "the Israeli withdrawal must go hand in hand with disarmament." The deal, announced two days after Donald Trump met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House, required "months of very difficult negotiations," he noted. In the cramped, densely populated territory, where the humanitarian situation remains deeply alarming, residents are caught between skepticism and hope. Israeli forces occupy more than 60% of the territory, which is separated from the Hamas-controlled zone by a "yellow line" of demarcation. Les forces israéliennes occupent plus de 60 % du territoire, séparé de la zone contrôlée par le Hamas par une «ligne jaune» de démarcation.

Day after day, the radical wing of the Iranian regime – at least as it is characterized by certain Western circles – is working to demonstrate its capacity to gradually extend its reach into new areas of the Middle East. Following the reactivation of their Yemeni militia, the Houthis, aimed at holding hostage the Bab el-Mandeb strait and the corresponding Red Sea shipping lane (after the Strait of Hormuz), the Revolutionary Guards were keen to show that they have "a long arm" when it comes to missile range. They attacked the port of Damietta in Egypt using an explosive-laden drone, striking two gas storage vessels – one of which was American. A fire broke out on both vessels. The Egyptian government held Iran responsible for the attack, which was strongly condemned by the Secretary-General of the Arab League, who described it as an "unacceptable" act of aggression against Cairo. At the same time, the Revolutionary Guards fired five missiles at Jordan – an act of aggression sharply denounced by Qatar – and once again attacked Kuwait, where a building belonging to a Chinese company took a direct hit and was severely damaged in the explosion, killing one worker. In response, China called on all parties to immediately halt the military escalation. As a sign that the conflict is spreading to new actors, the Saudi Ministry of Defense organized an expanded meeting in Riyadh bringing together the chiefs of staff (or their representatives) of 43 countries. The aim of the summit was to launch the establishment of a broad "Maritime Defense Alliance." The Saudi ministry stated that this is an international initiative designed to ensure the security and freedom of navigation on maritime routes. It is worth noting in this context that the Saudi air force, in collaboration with US air forces, carried out strikes at the beginning of this week against Houthi positions in Yemen, in retaliation for the (failed) missile launches that the pro-Iranian Yemeni militia had attempted against Saudi Aramco facilities. It should be noted that, according to sources cited by the Arabic-language channel al-Hadath , the Houthis launched the missiles toward Saudi territory from Iraqi soil, with the complicity of pro-Iranian Iraqi militias. This is the first time since the conflict began that the Saudi military has been directly involved in military operations against Iran's allies. At the beginning of July, Kuwait and Bahrain had bombed positions inside Iran, with support and air cover provided by the United Arab Emirates – marking the first indication of an active Gulf state involvement in the war against Iran. This tendency of the Revolutionary Guards to seek to expand the armed conflict to as many new areas of the Middle East as possible prompted President Donald Trump to give the green light, overnight Wednesday into Thursday, for a new wave of airstrikes against Revolutionary Guard positions, infrastructure, and ammunition depots across several regions of Iran. The US Central Command was expected to announce on Thursday that "dozens of Revolutionary Guard positions were successfully targeted in these strikes." According to information from Israel, Washington reportedly informed Israeli authorities on Thursday evening that new, large-scale airstrikes targeting Revolutionary Guard headquarters and centers were expected to be launched overnight Thursday. Selon des informations en provenance d’Israël, Washington aurait informé jeudi soir les autorités israéliennes que de nouveaux bombardements aériens massifs contre les quartiers généraux et les centres des Pasdaran devraient être lancés dans la nuit de jeudi. The only bright spot in this bleak regional picture: Thursday's announcement of an agreement, endorsed by Hamas, aimed at handing over heavy weapons to an international committee that will be responsible for collecting and storing Hamas's weapons, in line with the Gaza solution process that had been devised by President Trump. Aoun's Visit to Ankara It is against this backdrop of a rapidly shifting regional landscape that President Joseph Aoun made a lightning visit to Ankara on Thursday, where he held a meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who stressed on this occasion that his country is ready to contribute to strengthening security in Lebanon. The head of state returned to Beirut on Thursday evening, and the Presidency of the Republic indicated in a press release that cooperation between the two countries will focus, in particular, on support for the army, the provision of prefabricated housing for displaced people from the South, as well as assistance in the areas of electrical energy, air transport, and the development of basic infrastructure. President Aoun extended an invitation to President Erdogan to visit Lebanon.

Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza… On Tuesday, Iran decided to mobilize its fourth major proxy in the region to ramp up pressure on the United States and its allies: Iraq, where the Islamic Republic continues to maintain a network of armed groups overseen by the Revolutionary Guards. Washington announced Wednesday airstrikes in Iraq targeting pro-Iranian armed groups, carried out jointly with Saudi Arabia, which had itself been hit earlier by missiles fired from Iraqi territory. These attacks, carried out in several Iraqi cities, killed 20 people — including five Iranians — and wounded 32 within the ranks of the Hashed al-Shaabi, according to this predominantly Shia network of factions, which is integrated into Iraq's armed forces and encompasses several pro-Iranian armed groups. While Donald Trump claimed, according to a Fox News journalist, that the strikes were "coordinated with the Iraqi government," the Iraqi presidency condemned what it called a "blatant violation of Iraq's sovereignty." Iraq's National Security Ministerial Council subsequently announced that it had adopted "a comprehensive security plan (...) to address any violation of Iraq's sovereignty and prevent any entity from using Iraqi territory to threaten neighboring states." Pro-Iranian groups in Iraq denied being behind the strikes that targeted oil facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia. Nevertheless, the U.S. military's Central Command (CENTCOM) stated Wednesday that "U.S. and Saudi combat aircraft struck multiple terrorist logistics and weapons sites in eastern Iraq." Tehran condemned the strikes carried out in the neighboring country. Iran's state television reported, on Wednesday afternoon, American bombardments on a town located near the Iraqi border. Additionally, the U.S. military announced it had intercepted missiles targeting its forces "based in the Middle East" that were fired from Iran. Iranian state television then reported American strikes in northwestern Iran. Jordan, a U.S. ally that has already been targeted by Tehran, announced early Wednesday that it had shot down five missiles fired from Iran. The Revolutionary Guards claimed responsibility for a missile attack on "an air base and the U.S. central command headquarters." In response to these repeated Iranian aggressions, U.S. President Donald Trump declared, according to remarks reported by a Fox News journalist, that the United States would strike Iran "hard" following Iranian strikes on American bases in Jordan — reigniting, after a brief lull, the conflict engulfing the Middle East. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea In Yemen, the UN-recognized government accused the Houthis on Wednesday of seeking to impose transit fees on ships passing through the Red Sea and the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, a strategic chokepoint located at its southern end. The rebels claimed Tuesday to have targeted a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea using missiles, accusing it of having "violated the naval blockade" they are threatening to impose on the kingdom, the world's top crude oil exporter. Saudi Arabia is counting on the Red Sea to continue its exports, as Iran once again locks down the strategic Strait of Hormuz on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula. The Revolutionary Guards also announced Wednesday that they had intercepted and immobilized three tankers attempting to pass through the strait, through which — before the war — nearly 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas transited. These new strikes came the day after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Washington, where he met with Donald Trump for the first time since the regional war broke out, triggered by both countries' attacks on Iran on February 28. The origins of the Hachd al-Shaabi Turning to the group known as the Hachd al-Shaabi, also known as the Popular Mobilization Forces, it was established in 2014 following a fatwa issued by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the highest Shia religious authority in Iraq, calling for armed resistance against the jihadist group the Islamic State (IS), which had seized vast swaths of the country. Pro-Iranian armed groups rallied together, and thousands of volunteers joined the fight. Hachd al-Shaabi fighters were largely trained by Iran and guided by Tehran-backed groups that had already fought against American forces following the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the fall of Saddam Hussein. Their activities were overseen by General Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force — the branch of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responsible for external operations — who was killed in a U.S. airstrike in Baghdad in 2020. In 2016, legislation was passed integrating the Hachd al-Shaabi into Iraq's armed and security forces. A year later, it played a key role, alongside those forces and with the support of the U.S.-led international coalition, in the defeat of the Islamic State. Since the 2003 invasion, the United States has maintained significant influence in Iraq. However, its intervention also paved the way for the expansion of Iranian influence, as Tehran's Shia allies rose to the highest levels of power in Baghdad. Since then, Iraq has become one of the primary arenas for proxy confrontations between Washington and Tehran. Today, the Hachd al-Shaabi encompasses dozens of armed groups, including several brigades belonging to powerful pro-Iranian factions that have been designated as terrorist organizations by the United States. Some of these factions are accused of drawing government salaries while operating with complete autonomy. Over the years, their influence has grown considerably. Several groups have secured seats in parliament, while a number of their leaders, including the commander of the Hachd al-Shaabi, have been targeted by U.S. sanctions. Various pro-Iranian armed groups also belong to the broader network of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which has claimed hundreds of attacks against American installations across the region since the start of the war in the Middle East. They align themselves with the Tehran-led 'axis of resistance,' which also includes Lebanese Hezbollah, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen. Among the most active are Kataeb Hezbollah, which has long targeted American interests in Iraq and has had several of its commanders killed in U.S. strikes. Other groups, such as Kataeb Sayyid al-Shuhada and the Al-Nujaba movement, are present on certain Hachd al-Shaabi bases while also maintaining their own facilities, primarily used for drone manufacturing. They also possess rockets and are believed to hold short-range ballistic missiles.

US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a meeting on Tuesday that both sides described as "positive," reaffirming their shared commitment to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The two leaders, who have stood shoulder to shoulder in their campaign against the Islamic Republic, have nonetheless begun showing signs of divergence since last April. The White House occupant now favors a diplomatic solution to cut short a war that has dragged on longer than expected and risks becoming a political liability as the midterm elections approach. Conversely, the Israeli Prime Minister intends to see the confrontation through to the end in order to eliminate what he describes as the "existential" threat posed by Iran. In a video released after the meeting, Benjamin Netanyahu said he had "the best conversation" with Donald Trump, explaining that their talks had focused in part on their "shared goal: making sure Iran does not obtain nuclear weapons." Even so, the closed-door meeting — which lasted nearly an hour and a half and ended without either participant speaking to the press — does not fully dispel the impression of a rift between Washington and Jerusalem. It was their first face-to-face meeting since the outbreak of the regional war in the Middle East, and their eighth since Donald Trump's return to the White House. Washington says it wants to give diplomacy with Tehran another chance following two weeks of unprecedented bombing that preceded the April ceasefire. Mr. Netanyahu's visit comes at a "critical moment for the Middle East," as Iran continues, according to Israel, to "prioritize terrorism over negotiations" and maintains its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations Danny Danon said earlier on Tuesday. "A very difficult guy" Relations between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu had deteriorated sharply in April, during the early stages of ceasefire negotiations between Washington and Tehran. The US president had sharply criticized his Israeli ally at the time, accusing him of undermining diplomatic efforts. Donald Trump had notably described Benjamin Netanyahu as a "very difficult guy." The Israeli Prime Minister acknowledged "tactical disagreements" while insisting that he and his American counterpart shared the same strategic objectives. When asked on Tuesday morning about reports that Iran had been reinforcing facilities inside Mount Kolang ("pickaxe" in Persian), Donald Trump replied: "I don't need Bibi to tell me that. He's telling me because he wants me to stay involved." "I know exactly what's going on at Kolang. It's not a big deal. If we can't reach a deal, we'll destroy those facilities very easily," he said on Fox News ahead of the meeting. "The main point is to show the entire world — Iran, but also Lebanon and other countries in the region — that there is no break or major disagreement between the United States and Israel," Yonatan Freeman, an international relations scholar at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, told AFP. In his view, any differences are more about means — the timing, intensity of military operations, or immediate objectives — than about ultimate goals. Iranian contacts with Riyadh and Muscat over Hormuz Meanwhile, Tehran continues to alternate between military operations and diplomatic overtures toward its Arab Gulf neighbors, blurring the traditional lines of the confrontation. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held separate phone calls with his Omani counterpart Badr al-Busaidi and his Saudi counterpart Faisal bin Farhan to discuss the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian state television. "They stressed the need to strengthen cooperation and advance diplomatic efforts to restore stability in the region and put an end to the insecurity imposed on the Strait of Hormuz by aggressive US actions," the same source reported. On Tuesday evening, Riyadh also announced that it had intercepted hundreds of Iranian drones during an attack targeting Aramco oil facilities in the kingdom's eastern region… Rome talks continue On the Lebanese front, the United States confirmed that new talks between Israel and Lebanon will be held in Rome from August 4 to 6, as part of the expansion of the "pilot zones" mechanism under Lebanese army supervision. These meetings, which are largely technical in nature, will focus on expanding the framework, resolving outstanding border issues, and working toward a comprehensive peace and security agreement, a US State Department official told Al-Hadath . "We are entering this new round of discussions between Lebanon and Israel with positive momentum following the success of the pilot zones," the official added, speaking on condition of anonymity. The diplomat also stated that the "fruitful meeting" between Presidents Donald Trump and Joseph Aoun had a positive impact on the Lebanese-Israeli discussions. Despite a relative lull in fighting, the Israeli military has continued to carry out targeted strikes in southern Lebanon. Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz even boasted on Tuesday of having destroyed 24 centuries-old Lebanese villages, adding that the Israeli army was applying the same tactics in Lebanon as in Gaza, where nearly 70% of the Palestinian coastal strip is said to have been destroyed since hostilities began in October 2024… In Houla… ammonium nitrate, again On the ground, UNIFIL announced on Tuesday that it had discovered approximately four tons of explosives in early July in Houla, a village in southern Lebanon located in an area under Israeli occupation. The peacekeepers "discovered 385 abandoned containers inside a building, containing approximately 4,000 kilograms of explosives, primarily ammonium nitrate-based compounds," the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon stated. UNIFIL specialists subsequently "neutralized the material to render it harmless and eliminate any risk," without specifying to whom the explosives belonged. Houla lies within a strip of Lebanese territory approximately ten kilometers deep along the border with Israel, which has been occupied by the Israeli military since the latest war launched in early March against Hezbollah. Hezbollah dragged Lebanon into the regional conflict on March 2 by attacking Israel in a show of support for Iran, triggering a sweeping Israeli military response by land and air. The discovery of these explosives inevitably revives the trauma of the Beirut port explosion on August 4, 2020. On that day, nearly 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate that had been stored carelessly for several years detonated, killing more than 220 people, injuring over 6,500, and devastating a large part of the capital. Six years on, the judicial investigations and scientific inquiries aimed at determining the causes of the disaster and establishing accountability continue to stall, with judges and experts facing intense political pressure. Many observers believe that Hezbollah bears significant responsibility for the storage of this explosive material, as the pro-Iranian group at the time exerted considerable influence over the port of Beirut — the main entry point for Iranian weapons and various smuggled goods used to fund the organization.

While tensions have largely subsided in the Middle East regarding the Iranian conflict, it is the Yemeni front that appears most active this Monday, July 27, with new Houthi rebel attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. In this context, the Saudi kingdom is currently being targeted by other pro-Iranian groups based in Iraq. The Saudis intercepted drones launched from Iraqi territory and, at the same time, called on Iraqi authorities to prevent such attacks carried out by these 'terrorist' groups — all the more so as the new government has expressed its willingness to better manage its internal situation. Once again, Iran is proving that it uses its proxies according to a well-oiled plan, likely taking advantage of American hesitation. But why target Saudi Arabia in particular at a time of relative calm? Other incidents have also been reported since the United States halted its strikes against Iran last Friday. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy announced on Monday that it had prevented six vessels from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, as they were attempting to 'transit via routes not authorized by Iranian authorities.' Earlier in the day, state television had reported an 'incident' involving a vessel, without providing further details, AFP noted. Meanwhile, the Israeli military announced it had intercepted two drones near the Jordanian border, before they could enter Israeli territory. In southern Lebanon, the Israeli army accused Hezbollah of launching at least one drone into the highly contested area of Ali el-Taher in an attempt to gather intelligence on its soldiers. Several security incidents were recorded in the area on Monday. The Shia party had not conducted any operations since the ceasefire announced in Islamabad. Netanyahu in Washington In the meantime, the West Bank continues to flare up with clashes between settlers and residents, and tensions are running extremely high. Another troubling incident in recent hours: the Ukrainian attack on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea, which resulted in casualties, continues to stir controversy in Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi not only harshly criticized Kyiv in a post on X, but also accused Israel of having orchestrated the attack in order to draw Europe into the Iranian conflict. It is against this particularly tense backdrop that the Israeli Prime Minister was due to travel to Washington on Monday, where he is scheduled to meet with President Donald Trump on Tuesday. On the eve of that meeting, the Israeli newspaper Israel Hayom reported that Mr. Netanyahu is expected to firmly resist any American pressure for a withdrawal from Gaza, Syria, or southern Lebanon. According to the Israeli newspaper, the Prime Minister would make clear that Israel's security needs must take precedence over all other considerations, as the region continues to be shaken by overlapping conflicts and fragile diplomatic initiatives. This stance is likely to deepen the rift between the two leaders, as President Trump has already publicly called on Mr. Netanyahu to withdraw his troops from Lebanon and Syria. It would also undermine the ongoing negotiations with Lebanon, which are expected to lead to a gradual withdrawal of the Israeli army from southern Lebanon, in parallel with a deployment of the Lebanese army, on condition that Hezbollah is demilitarized in these so-called 'pilot' zones. The Lebanese army had already deployed in a southern village last Tuesday — Zawtar el-Gharbiya, in the Nabatiyeh region. For official Lebanon, represented by President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, who are pressing ahead with direct negotiations with Israel (the next round is scheduled for August 4 in Rome), certain hardline Israeli statements are damaging, even if they are part of the usual posturing driven by domestic (electoral) and international calculations. These extremist Israeli positions are all the more regrettable given that the framework agreement signed by the Lebanese and Israeli parties on June 26 continues to be targeted on the Lebanese domestic scene by campaigns waged by the Iranian axis. Beyond the usual criticism from Hezbollah, Parliament Speaker and Amal leader Nabih Berry issued a statement on Monday in which he reiterated his rejection of any direct negotiations with Israel, expressing pessimism about the framework agreement and stating that the initial deployment of the Lebanese army to Zawtar el-Gharbiya only deepens his pessimism. He called for American, Saudi, and Iranian sponsorship of the situation in Lebanon. The US-Iran negotiations Monday was also marked by a visit to Beirut by UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk, during which he stated that his office "has documented widespread violations of international law, some of which could constitute war crimes." Receiving Mr. Türk at Baabda, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun stressed that "the ongoing destruction being carried out by Israel in southern Lebanon risks undermining the implementation of the Lebanese-Israeli framework agreement." Finally, regarding the US-Iran negotiations, Iran — through its Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei — denied that any direct negotiations with the United States are currently underway, acknowledging only that messages have been exchanged through intermediaries. The Iranian official also took the opportunity to lash out at repeated American statements claiming that Iran is desperately seeking to return to the negotiating table. Reverting once again to its characteristic arrogance toward the United States, Iran's Foreign Ministry emphasized that "Iran will never allow the United States to decide the timing of war or peace"!

Yemen's Houthi rebels, allies of Tehran, targeted Saudi Arabian oil facilities on Saturday in retaliation for strikes by Riyadh, marking a further escalation of hostilities on yet another front of the war engulfing the Middle East. While Saudi authorities have so far remained silent on the matter, the Greek air force — tasked with operating an air defense system in Saudi Arabia — announced it had intercepted two missiles and a drone launched from Yemen toward Yanbu. Having stepped up strikes against Gulf states in recent months in retaliation for American bombardments, Tehran now appears to be opening a new front through its Houthi allies against the Riyadh-led coalition. These new clashes in the strategically vital Red Sea region — while the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked at the other end of the Arabian Peninsula — are deepening concerns about the global transport of hydrocarbons. In response to this latest escalation, Donald Trump threatened the Houthis and Iran this week with "major military punishment." The American president said he was keeping diplomatic channels open and continuing dialogue with Iranian leaders, while also stating he could inflict a "far worse level" of strikes on the Islamic Republic. On Friday, several American media outlets reported discussions about a possible large-scale military operation. Bahrain and Kuwait: a rare Gulf counterstrike For several weeks, Iran has been focusing its retaliatory strikes on Bahrain and Kuwait — two countries that host American military bases. Both Gulf states, equipped with relatively modest air forces fielding American and European aircraft, are no longer willing to let Tehran strike them with impunity. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, Bahrain and Kuwait secretly sent fighter jets to strike military sites in Iran, marking their first direct retaliation against the Islamic Republic. Carried out earlier this month, these operations reflect a growing awareness among Arab states of a conflict that threatens to draw them in ever deeper. The strikes reportedly targeted drone depots, missile stockpiles, and other military infrastructure. The United Arab Emirates, which had already taken part in several operations against Iran at the outset of the conflict, is said to have provided targeting intelligence and defensive air cover — a sign of increasingly close Arab military cooperation against Tehran, according to the same sources. Repression continues in Iran Despite the ceasefire reached in April, executions of protesters, members of banned groups, and alleged spies continue in Iran. Human rights organizations say this amounts to an attempt by the authorities to prevent the emergence of a new protest movement similar to the one seen last January. The recent resumption of hostilities is causing even greater concern among these organizations, which fear a further tightening of repression aimed at silencing any dissent. Iranian authorities accuse those executed of having taken part in deadly attacks against security forces or of targeting public buildings. However, NGOs denounce arbitrary and summary trials, as well as acts of torture. These cases are said to represent only the tip of the iceberg. According to Iran Human Rights (IHR), nearly 400 people have been executed since the beginning of the year, mainly in murder or drug trafficking cases. With 2,150 executions recorded last year, Iran once again ranked second in the world behind China, according to Amnesty International. Tensions spread to new fronts Avec 2150 exécutions recensées l'an dernier, l'Iran occupait une nouvelle fois la deuxième place mondiale derrière la Chine, selon Amnesty International. Les tensions gagnent de nouveaux fronts Crisis hotspots continue to shift across the Middle East, where fears persist that war between Washington and Tehran could resume at any moment. Both sides say they are ready for a new round of confrontations, while the prospects for a return to dialogue appear increasingly slim given the hardening of their respective positions. Israel, for its part, says it is ready to resume strikes against the Islamic Republic if Iran attacks its territory or if Washington gives the green light for a large-scale military operation. Against this backdrop, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Washington early next week takes on particular significance. The Israeli prime minister's office announced on Friday that Netanyahu would be received at the White House by Donald Trump on Tuesday, putting an end to weeks of speculation about a deterioration in relations between the two leaders. The meeting is expected to give them an opportunity to explore the various options that could bring an end to a grinding conflict, while preventing Tehran from rebuilding its military capabilities or regaining the diplomatic initiative from a position of strength. In another sign that hostilities could resume, the U.S. Embassy in Israel urged American citizens in the country to "closely monitor the evolving situation and prepare for possible disruptions to air travel." Deadly clashes in the West Bank In the West Bank, residents of the Palestinian village of Tell buried four men on Saturday who had been killed the previous day during clashes with Israeli settlers. The violence erupted on Friday after around twenty settlers from the nearby Havat Gilad outpost entered the village. According to the Israeli army, a Palestinian seized a settler's weapon before killing one of them. A gunfight then broke out, leaving four Palestinians and a second Israeli dead. Israel immediately launched a large-scale security operation, sealing off the area and closing roadblocks throughout the West Bank, a Palestinian territory occupied since 1967. Violence in the West Bank has escalated sharply since the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. Settler attacks and Israeli army raids on Palestinian villages have become nearly daily occurrences. These acts are regularly documented in videos shared on social media, sometimes by the perpetrators themselves. Following what he described as a "deadly terrorist attack" that killed two Israelis, Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to act "firmly" and announced "the accelerated legalization of settlement outposts." These outposts, typically consisting of a few trailers or prefabricated structures built without official authorization, are intended to create facts on the ground. Two sites granted emergency World Heritage in Danger listing On a separate note, the fortresses of Jabal Amel in southern Lebanon and the archaeological site of Sebastia in the West Bank were granted emergency inscription on both the UNESCO World Heritage List and the List of World Heritage in Danger on Friday. The five Jabal Amel fortresses are located in a region of southern Lebanon that has been regularly bombed by Israel since the start of the conflict. The "constituent elements" of these fortifications, dating from the 12th century and built on hills overlooking the surrounding area, have sustained damage and remain exposed to threats linked to the ongoing armed conflict — threats "serious enough to warrant the use of an emergency procedure," UNESCO emphasized. Gradual return to Zawtar el-Gharbiyeh In Lebanon, a tentative sign of calm has finally emerged in the South. Residents of Zawtar el-Gharbiyeh have begun gradually returning to their village under the supervision of the Lebanese army, which has deployed there in accordance with the framework agreement reached on June 26 between Beirut and Israel. This return suggests that the implementation of the agreement is moving forward, despite the Israeli army continuing demolition operations in other parts of southern Lebanon. The gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces remains contingent, however, on the full deployment of the Lebanese army and the dismantling of Hezbollah's paramilitary infrastructure. In Syria, Guterres calls for international support On the diplomatic front, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, making his first visit to Syria, called on the international community on Saturday to support the country as it navigates a transitional phase following more than a decade of civil war and the establishment of new authorities. Standing alongside President Ahmad al-Sharaa, he also advocated for respect for Syrian sovereignty, in reference to Israeli incursions into the south of the country. This visit marks the first by a UN Secretary-General to Syria since Ban Ki-moon's trip in 2009. It comes more than a year and a half after the fall of President Bashar al-Assad in late 2024, who was overthrown by a coalition of rebel groups.