Today's Essential

The rift between Americans and Israelis over Lebanon is growing ever wider, as statements from Israeli officials increasingly diverge from commitments made during direct talks with the Lebanese — particularly since the framework agreement was signed between the two sides in June. Comments by Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, suggesting that the army would not withdraw from the occupied portion of the South, drew a sharp rebuke from the State Department on Thursday, which stated that such declarations were inconsistent with the commitments made under the framework agreement. Meanwhile, on Thursday, Israeli destruction continued unabated in southern Lebanon. According to MTV, Israel is also reportedly preparing to blow up Hezbollah tunnels in the Ali el-Taher hill, where Iran has over the years built an impressive network of underground tunnels stretching hundreds of kilometers, alongside sophisticated military infrastructure designed to pave the way for a Hezbollah assault on Galilee.

We are a long way from the (falsely) optimistic statements made by senior Pakistani officials and even American leaders, who regularly spoke of “positive contacts” in the Iranian negotiations and, often, of an imminent agreement between the two protagonists in the Iranian conflict. President Donald Trump has, to be sure, put the airstrikes against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) positions, infrastructure and warehouses on “pause.” But the same cannot be said of the mullahs’ regime, which is clearly taking advantage of this lull to catch its breath, reorganize its forces and replenish its offensive arsenal, as far as possible, while shifting the “front” and military operations onto the territory of a third party: Yemen.

A fire smoldering beneath the ashes… At this stage, that appears to be the perception that the radical Iranian camp is seeking to cultivate on multiple fronts. On the military operations front, first… The Yemeni Houthi militia, one of the mullah regime's main proxies in the region, continued on Tuesday, August 11, its campaign of destabilization in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb area, launching three ballistic missiles at a Yemeni commercial vessel crossing the strait. The Houthi attack was particularly deadly, resulting in four crew members killed — three Pakistanis and one Indonesian — and four others wounded.

The region appears to have entered a prolonged “pause,” a lull that could last until the two elections scheduled for the fall, first in Israel and then in the United States. Mobile pockets of tension persist, however, but remain under control. The week now getting underway is following much the same course as the previous one, both politically and militarily. There have been no sharp shifts in position, either on the American or Israeli side, even as U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks on Iran on Sunday continue to fuel speculation about a possible shift in Washington’s strategy. Only Tehran, engaged in a process of internal restructuring, has broken the lull by responding directly to the occupant of the White House. In an interview with the U.S. news site Axios on Sunday, Donald Trump compared the standoff with the Islamic Republic to “a game of chess,” after ruling out the use of force to compel it to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

A precarious — and unsettling — calm has prevailed for nearly 48 hours across the Levant and Gulf region, following attacks launched earlier this week by the Iranian-backed Yemeni Houthi militia against Saudi positions along the Yemen-Saudi Arabia border, as well as against areas held by Yemeni loyalist forces under the government recognized by the international community. These loyalist units were set to launch major offensive operations against Houthi positions overnight Friday into Saturday morning. The only notable security development on Saturday, August 8th, was an attack carried out by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps against a UAE tanker in the Strait of Hormuz region. The UAE condemned the attack, describing it as an act of "Iranian piracy."

Since the start of the war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran, the Gulf's oil monarchies have been paying a heavy price: unable to strike Tel Aviv or Washington directly, the Islamic Republic has not hesitated to target its Arab neighbors on the pretext that they host American military bases — bases that have largely been evacuated. As a result, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar — despite being considered an Iranian ally — as well as Oman and Jordan have all come under attack. Recently, Tehran activated its proxies in Iraq and Yemen — Iraqi Shia militias and the Yemeni Houthis — who have targeted Saudi oil infrastructure.

It is a day of talks par excellence. In Rome, the third and final meeting of the seventh round of direct negotiations between Beirut and Tel Aviv concluded on a more or less positive note, though still without a definitive outcome. In the Gulf, Tehran and Muscat are reportedly on the verge of announcing a provisional agreement on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. In both cases, a resolution is certainly not imminent, especially since the underlying problem — namely Iran's destabilizing influence in the region, and more specifically that of pro-Iranian militias — persists, as Syrian Foreign Minister Assaad al-Shaibani rightly pointed out during his visit to Ankara on Thursday.

The seventh round of direct Lebanese-Israeli talks got underway Tuesday in Rome at the U.S. Embassy. The negotiations, described as difficult, are set to continue over three days, during which the Lebanese and Israeli delegations are expected to agree on the next stage of the mechanism envisaged for the gradual withdrawal of Tel Aviv’s forces and the deployment of the Lebanese Army. Beirut has made this issue a particular priority, while Israel remains chiefly focused on Lebanon’s mechanism envisaged for Hezbollah’s disarmament. The Iran-backed group returned to the offensive on Tuesday, lashing out at the Lebanese authorities and taking particular aim at President Joseph Aoun.

Monday, August 3, was dominated by the fallout from U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement the previous day that he had called off the large-scale strikes against Iran that had been planned for the weekend. Trump had previously said the operation would be “the most powerful since World War II.” On Monday morning, Trump announced that talks with Iran would take place later that evening. But Tehran was quick to contradict the White House. Speaking through the Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Teheran said it was not engaged in talks with Washington, insisting that its only discussions were with Oman over the division of responsibilities in the Strait of Hormuz.

False alarm or calculated bluff? Several alarming statements were made Saturday evening about the imminent threat of a large-scale American attack on Iran. The resumption of fighting in early July derailed the memorandum of understanding signed in mid-June, which was meant to pave the way for peace talks. On Thursday, Pakistan, acting as mediator, stated that the warring parties were in negotiations aimed at de-escalation, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and the United States resumed their exchanges of overnight strikes this week after several days of relative calm, but no attacks have been reported since the night of Friday to Saturday.