Today's Essential

Several diplomatic and military developments marked Wednesday in the Middle East, with renewed tensions between Israel and Turkey over the Syrian issue. The latest episode unfolded on Wednesday, a day after Israeli aircraft bombed the Abu al-Duhur air base in the Idlib province of northwestern Syria. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday that he had "clearly" communicated to Turkey that it should not establish a base in Syria, implicitly acknowledging the previous day's strike. At the same time, Israeli Chief of Staff General Eyal Zamir warned that his country would not tolerate the presence of any "hostile force" near its borders, speaking during a visit to Israeli troops deployed in southern Syria. The senior officer's visit came the day after the bombing of Abu al-Duhur air base. The Israeli government has accused Damascus of violating an agreement between the two sides by allowing Turkish troops to be deployed at the facility. Ankara, whose relations with Israel have been strained for several years, rejected these accusations. U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack, who also serves as the American president's special envoy for Syria, condemned the Israeli strikes, calling them "unnecessary escalation." According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), the strikes came after "the visit, in recent days, of a Turkish military delegation to the airport as part of ongoing efforts to return it to service." Conference in support of the Lebanese army On the Lebanese front, Beirut announced Wednesday that it had received an invitation from France to take part in a preliminary meeting ahead of an international conference in support of the Lebanese army, set to be held in Paris next month. The conference was originally scheduled to take place in March in the French capital, but was postponed after Hezbollah dragged Lebanon into the regional war in support of Iran. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, currently on an official visit to Rome, received a letter from his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron inviting Lebanon to "participate in a preliminary meeting on September 17 in Paris, ahead of the international conference in support of the Lebanese Armed Forces and Internal Security Forces," the Lebanese presidency announced. Chiefs of staff from several countries, as well as experts and representatives of governments and international organizations, are expected to attend the preliminary meeting, according to the Lebanese presidency. However, Paris has yet to make an official announcement regarding the meeting. Israeli army admits killing Hind Rajab In Gaza, the Israeli army acknowledged Wednesday that its troops had opened fire on the car in which Hind Rajab, a five-year-old Palestinian girl, was riding when she was killed in January 2024. It also announced the opening of an investigation following preliminary inquiries into the matter. Hind Rajab's body had been found in a bullet-riddled car several days after the girl was last heard during a lengthy phone call with the Palestinian Red Crescent on January 29, 2024. The Israeli army had until now denied that its troops were in the area at the time of the incident. Hind Rajab had called emergency services from her family's car, which had come under fire as the family attempted to flee Gaza City amid the Israeli army's advance into the northern part of the Palestinian territory. The circumstances of the girl's death had sparked widespread international outrage and prompted numerous calls for an independent investigation. The original recordings of her call to emergency services were later incorporated into the Oscar-nominated documentary The Voice of Hind Rajab . Ghalibaf in Baghdad Iranian Parliament Speaker and Tehran's chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, arrived in Baghdad on Wednesday for a three-day visit, as Iraq faces significant pressure from Washington to disarm the powerful Iran-backed armed factions. Ghalibaf stated that his visit was aimed at "strengthening the new order in the region and accelerating the deepening of cooperation among all regional countries, free from foreign interference." The statement comes at a particularly sensitive time for Baghdad, caught between its ties with Tehran and US demands regarding Iran-backed armed groups operating on its soil. Ghalibaf is scheduled to meet Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, before holding talks with representatives of the "Coordination Framework," the ruling coalition grouping several Shia parties with varying degrees of closeness to Tehran. Under pressure from Washington, Zaidi has given Iran-backed armed groups until September 30 to lay down their weapons — a deadline that coincides with the end of the US-led anti-jihadist coalition's mission in Iraq.

The 60-day truce during which Tehran and Washington were supposed to pursue talks toward a lasting peace ended Monday on a bellicose note, with both sides maintaining their positions. Tensions have flared anew between the two sides, who agree on just one thing: neither intends to give ground. Applying the old adage that the best defense is a good offense, Iran has apparently opted for an “entirely” offensive strategy, going so far as to give Washington an “ultimatum” (!) of “a few weeks” to “honor the terms of last June’s memorandum of understanding,” Reuters reported Monday, citing a senior Iranian official. According to Reuters, Tehran intends to act if diplomatic efforts with the United States fail. “Iranian entities should stand ready for escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the wider region, because Iran will be prepared to make decisions and act on difficult choices,” the official said, adding that his country would carry out a “timely and precise” military strike to break the American naval blockade. Going even further in its arrogance and in its typical “victor” behavior of imposing its terms on the defeated (!), the Islamic Republic “demands that, within the short deadline of a few weeks that has been set, the United States implement all the provisions of” the June agreement. “That is a precondition for continuing negotiations with Washington,” the Iranian official told Reuters, adding that mediators would relay Tehran’s deadline to Washington and to states in the region. This “warning” in fact illustrates just how severely U.S. economic sanctions and the naval blockade are suffocating Iran, which is grappling with serious economic and financial difficulties and is therefore ready to do whatever it takes to pull through. It came just hours after U.S. President Donald Trump gave an interview to Fox News, in which he reaffirmed his determination to tighten the sanctions further, reiterating the war’s primary objective: “Preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.” The president said he was not “pressed for time,” an allusion to November’s midterm elections. He nevertheless made a surprising move, threatening Oman with military strikes should it “get in the way” of a deal over the Strait of Hormuz, another source of conflict between Tehran and Washington. An Iranian official again said on Monday that his country was on the verge of reaching an agreement with Muscat on navigation through the strategic maritime passage, but the United States fears that such an agreement could come at the expense of freedom of navigation for ships in the Strait of Hormuz, which is part of international waters. In his phone interview with Fox News, Donald Trump nevertheless said that a diplomatic resolution with Tehran remained possible, while noting that “the Iranians do not appear to want a diplomatic solution at this time.” He nonetheless called on Tehran to “raise the white flag of surrender,” before reiterating that an indirect channel of communication existed with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The ICRG were quick to deny it. Their spokesman, Hossein Mohammadi, said there was “no form of contact” with the Americans, accusing Trump of “rambling.” According to Axios, Kurdish leader Nechirvan Barzani is said to be the link between the ICRG and Washington and to have worked to arrange a meeting between the two sides. Tensions on the Ground The verbal escalation, which has in fact been building for several days, is being matched by real tensions on the ground, all of them stoked by Iran’s allies in the region. It is against this backdrop that the Houthis have carried out near-daily strikes – two of them on Monday alone – against Saudi targets, as well as Saturday’s explosive drone attack by Hezbollah on Israeli soldiers in southern Lebanon, which triggered a fierce retaliation from the Israeli military. Overnight Sunday into Monday, two booby-trapped drones targeted, without causing casualties, the office of Iraqi Kurdistan’s prime minister, Masrour Barzani, as well as the residence of the region’s intelligence chief, near Erbil. Suspicion immediately fell on Tehran, which did not respond to the accusations. Iraqi Kurdistan, an ally of the United States but a neighbor of Iran, has come under repeated attack since the regional war began. While the Iranian file remains stalled, those concerning Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon are inching forward. On a visit to Israel, President Trump’s envoy, Jared Kushner, held a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a day after speaking with Hamas representatives in Egypt. At the heart of the discussions: the second phase of the American plan, which calls in particular for Hamas’s disarmament and an Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza – terms Tel Aviv disputes. Israel is demanding “genuine” disarmament of Hamas, which for its part wants the weapons placed in storage depots. Against this backdrop, Israel is insisting that this pro-Iranian faction play no role in the enclave. According to several converging sources cited by Western and Israeli media, Kushner is said to have secured a commitment to that effect from Hamas representatives and relayed it to Netanyahu. According to the Jerusalem Post , Hamas’s weapons would be handed over to the Americans, who would destroy them. The Israeli prime minister reportedly assured his guest that Israel would withdraw from Gaza once that process is complete, the Jerusalem Post also reported. That points to Lebanon, where Hezbollah still rejects the very principle of its own disarmament, even though that disarmament should take place sooner or later, given the shifts underway across the region. When, and how? It remains to be seen how Lebanese authorities will handle the matter. For now, Beirut wants to see the mandate of UNIFIL, which expires at the end of the year, extended – or, at the very least, an international force put in place to take over from the U.N. mission. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam both echoed that wish on the eve of a U.N. Security Council meeting on Lebanon. A petition to that effect, signed by 86 Lebanese MP’s and addressed to the Security Council, was handed to Salam on Monday. Finally, in a separate matter, Donald Trump announced he wants to “significantly reduce” American participation in joint military exercises with South Korea. The exercises nonetheless began as scheduled on Monday. The American president justified the decision by citing the cost of the exercises and his “very good relationship” with Kim Jong-Un.

The Feast of the Assumption, on Saturday, August 15, was marked by a serious escalation in southern Lebanon, as Israeli warplanes carried out deadly raids on the towns of El-Ansar and Deir Zahrani in the Nabatiyeh district, killing a total of 11 people — including a senior Hezbollah military commander — and wounding around twenty others. The Jewish state announced late in the day that these strikes were carried out in retaliation for an attack launched late Friday by the pro-Iranian militia against an Israeli unit in the Ali el-Taher area, in the Nabatiyeh region. Three Israeli soldiers were wounded, two of them seriously. Following that operation, the Israeli air force launched intensive strikes at dawn on Saturday against the heights of Ali el-Taher, but the deadliest airstrike took place in El-Ansar, where seven people were killed. In an official statement, the IDF announced late in the day that a "commander" of Hezbollah's elite Radwan unit, Ali Samir Hajj Hassan, had been killed in El-Ansar. The statement specified that the building targeted served as a command center for the pro-Iranian militia, from which the order had been given to launch the attack against soldiers on a mission on the hill of Ali el-Taher. The statement indicated that several aides of the Hezbollah commander were killed, along with family members who were present in the command center. "The killed commander had placed his family members by his side as human shields," the IDF stated. Later on Saturday, a strike was carried out against Deir Zahrani, killing four people and wounding several others. These airstrikes were strongly condemned by President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. On Saturday evening, Israeli Channel 12 reported that the IDF had notified residents of northern Israel of its intention to "carry out attacks in southern Lebanon overnight Saturday, and that explosions would therefore be heard" in the area. The Hormuz agreement taking shape once again On the regional front, Iran's Foreign Ministry stressed on Saturday evening that an agreement with the Sultanate of Oman was expected to be announced shortly, aimed at delineating the maritime corridors that ships would be permitted to use along the Strait of Hormuz. It is worth noting that Iran's Foreign Ministry had stated a few days ago that an agreement with the Sultanate of Oman would not necessarily guarantee free and safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. An official source in Tehran reiterated on Saturday evening that "the United States would need to meet certain conditions in order to ensure security in the strait"! It should also be noted that two vessels — one of them belonging to a UAE-based company — were targeted in Iranian attacks in that area over the past twenty-four hours. Alongside this persistent tension in a region subject to attacks by the Revolutionary Guards, military operations and bombardments continued on Saturday in Yemen between the pro-Iranian Houthi militia and Yemeni government forces, particularly in the Ma'rib region. Three Iranian aviators killed in Qatar in March Finally, Iran announced on Saturday that three Iranian pilots have been held in Qatar since last March. An Iranian source claimed they "were taken prisoner when their aircraft were shot down in Qatari airspace as they attempted to carry out strikes against American bases." Late on Saturday evening, the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied holding any Iranian aviators, while noting that rescue units were searching for the remains of the airmen. On this matter, the Qatari source indicated that contacts had been made with the Iranian authorities in order to hand over the remains of one of the aviators, "but Iran did not follow up on our efforts," the Qatari Foreign Ministry stressed.

The 60-day truce between the United States and Iran will expire in three days, with no official indication from either side about their intentions. Communication channels between Tehran and Washington remain severed, but mediators — notably Pakistan — appear to be working actively to secure an extension of the ceasefire established under the US-Iranian memorandum of understanding signed in mid-June. Both belligerents appear willing to extend the truce, though any such extension would not, at this stage, come with specific conditions attached, according to several corroborating media sources. The regional status quo is therefore set to continue, with no way of determining — given the hardening rhetoric on both sides — what might bring them back to the negotiating table. Washington believes the naval blockade it has imposed on the Islamic Republic is beginning to take effect, while Tehran, for its part, believes that by continuing to disrupt international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, it can pressure the United States into softening the conditions it is imposing on the Islamic Republic, which is nonetheless facing the threat of new economic sanctions. These are expected to be announced next week, according to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and would "be added on top of the existing naval blockade." "It will be a combination of economic isolation the likes of which the world has never seen, and the continuation of the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, which will prevent anything from entering or leaving Iranian ports," he announced in a television interview, without providing further details on the measures being considered. This pressure is driven in part by the continued attacks by the Revolutionary Guards on vessels transiting the US-secured corridor at Hormuz, as well as ongoing strikes by pro-Iranian Houthi forces against Saudi infrastructure. At the same time, the United States maintains a strong military presence in the region. The aircraft carrier USS George Washington, normally based in the Pacific, is en route to the Middle East, where it is expected to relieve the USS Abraham Lincoln, which has been deployed since late January. The information was provided by the Associated Press, citing a US naval forces statement, which attributes the redeployment to reports of mental health and supply issues faced by personnel aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln. Uncertainty in Lebanon In Lebanon, the day was dominated by a statement from US Ambassador Michel Issa regarding the Israeli military presence in southern Lebanon. Following a meeting with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berry, the diplomat stated bluntly, in response to a question, that Israeli military operations — including the demolition of homes and civilian infrastructure — will not stop until Hezbollah surrenders its weapons. Engaged in direct negotiations with Israel, Lebanon's main condition for moving the talks forward is an end to the ongoing demolitions — condemned on Thursday by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam — and a gradual Israeli withdrawal from the south of the country. The date for the eighth round of talks has yet to be set. Michel Issa confirmed this, while assuring that the round will take place. September 2 had been floated as a possible date following the seventh round held in Rome, but it was still pending confirmation. Other factors are complicating the continuation of the dialogue, including the question of pilot zones, which remains under discussion, particularly with CENTCOM officials and the head of the ceasefire monitoring committee, General Joseph Clearfield, who has been holding official meetings in Lebanon since Wednesday. Accompanied by M. Issa, he had met with Nabih Berry and then with Nawaf Salam. According to the American ambassador, discussions are still ongoing to determine which state — among those shortlisted in Rome — will be designated to verify that the work carried out by the Lebanese army in the pilot zones complies with the provisions of last June's Lebanese-Israeli agreement. It would appear, however, that negotiations are progressing well to ensure that Lebanese-Israeli talks resume on schedule. While Michel Issa welcomed the progress made so far, Hezbollah continues to oppose it. Its leader, Naim Qassem, as disconnected from reality as ever, renewed his attacks against the authorities on Friday in a speech delivered to celebrate his movement's so-called "victory" (!) in the 2006 war, which proved devastating for Lebanon. In this same tired speech, he once again took it upon himself to threaten the state, claiming that his group's "anger" could "explode at any moment"…

The rift between Americans and Israelis over Lebanon is growing ever wider, as statements from Israeli officials increasingly diverge from commitments made during direct talks with the Lebanese — particularly since the framework agreement was signed between the two sides in June. Comments by Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, suggesting that the army would not withdraw from the occupied portion of the South, drew a sharp rebuke from the State Department on Thursday, which stated that such declarations were inconsistent with the commitments made under the framework agreement. Meanwhile, on Thursday, Israeli destruction continued unabated in southern Lebanon. According to MTV, Israel is also reportedly preparing to blow up Hezbollah tunnels in the Ali el-Taher hill, where Iran has over the years built an impressive network of underground tunnels stretching hundreds of kilometers, alongside sophisticated military infrastructure designed to pave the way for a Hezbollah assault on Galilee. On the political front, Thursday was marked by a statement from Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, who criticized the "illogical stance" of Israel despite the start of the framework agreement's implementation on the ground. He also complained that an initial post expressing that view had been removed from his X account, forcing him to repost it. This unyielding Israeli posture is playing out against the backdrop of the upcoming October elections. And the escalation on the ground is not limited to Lebanon. On Thursday, another killing took place in Gaza despite repeated American calls for a lull. In the Strip, the Israeli army killed two Palestinians, including a police commander, near Khan Younes, describing the victim as a "terrorist" who posed "a threat" to its soldiers. Unrest is also continuing in the West Bank, where Palestinian journalist Mohammad Awad was arrested near Ramallah on the grounds that he works for Hamas. Even the U.S. Ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, condemned the "horrific terror" carried out by Israeli settlers in the West Bank. Heated rhetoric and a fragile truce over Iran On the Iranian front, an increasingly bellicose war of words continues to rage over control of the Strait of Hormuz, which has firmly become the focal point of this Iran-U.S. confrontation. While no escalation has yet been observed on the ground between the two sides, the rhetoric flared following comments made the previous day by U.S. President Donald Trump, who claimed that the United States had "total control" of the strait and was maintaining a "tight blockade" on Iranian ports. That was enough to trigger a wave of outraged responses from Iran. The Iranian army on Thursday denounced Trump's "lies." "The false U.S. claims that ships are passing through the Strait of Hormuz normally (...) are nothing but lies and fabrications," said Ebrahim Zolfaghari, spokesman for the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command, according to AFP. He stated that the strait remains "under the full management and control of the Islamic Republic, and no commercial or oil tanker has had, or will have, the ability to navigate it safely without the authorization and supervision of Iran's powerful armed forces." Another senior Iranian official had also earlier contradicted the U.S. president's statements. "Today, you can see that the Strait of Hormuz is under the management and control of the Islamic Republic, and our country continues on its path in complete security," said Hossein Taeb, commander of the Basij paramilitary forces, which fall under the Revolutionary Guards. For his part, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on Thursday on his X account that the United States had made "miscalculations" stemming from intelligence failures. In another statement and fresh provocation, Iranian MP Behnam Saeedi, a member of the National Security Commission, claimed that Israeli vessels and American military ships would be barred from passing through the strait. For now, there are no signs that the ceasefire is about to collapse, and the conflict increasingly gives the impression of being stuck in a quagmire. The Iranians are not missing any opportunity to demand compensation for passage through the strait, the latest example being the oil spill off the coast of Oman — clearly caused by a strike on a tanker — which has now reached Iranian shores. The country's authorities are now seeking damages in connection with the incident. Although calm on the American-Iranian front appears to be holding, the same cannot be said for Yemen's Houthis, Iranian allies, who claimed a drone strike on a Saudi refinery belonging to the giant Aramco on Thursday evening — again with no notable American response. It is worth noting that, according to Saudi channel Al Arabiya, the Saudi Defense Minister met on Thursday with an Iraqi delegation to discuss military and defense relations. Could this be linked to the defense pact signed last week between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey on collective defense? In any case, this marks the first such meeting following attacks carried out against the kingdom from Iraqi territory.

We are a long way from the (falsely) optimistic statements made by senior Pakistani officials and even American leaders, who regularly spoke of “positive contacts” in the Iranian negotiations and, often, of an imminent agreement between the two protagonists in the Iranian conflict. President Donald Trump has, to be sure, put the airstrikes against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) positions, infrastructure and warehouses on “pause.” But the same cannot be said of the mullahs’ regime, which is clearly taking advantage of this lull to catch its breath, reorganize its forces and replenish its offensive arsenal, as far as possible, while shifting the “front” and military operations onto the territory of a third party: Yemen. Against this backdrop, the Houthi militia in Yemen, beholden to Teheran, has continued over the past 24 hours to attack Saudi Arabia and positions or strategic sites held by the Yemeni government, which is backed by Riyadh and recognized by the international community. On the morning and early afternoon of Wednesday, August 12, the Houthis once again shelled the port of Mokha, held by the Yemeni army, as well as other pro-government positions. In retaliation, Yemeni government forces used heavy artillery to bombard Houthi centers and gathering points on the Marib front, while drones targeted military vehicles and fortifications belonging to the pro-Iranian militia in Taiz. A senior Yemeni official said Wednesday afternoon that “dozens of Houthi militiamen were killed or wounded in these operations, across several fronts.” The pan-Arab channel Al-Hadath reported that “84 Houthi militiamen have been killed in six days, including 28 senior officials.” It should be noted that late Tuesday night, the Houthis launched ballistic missiles and drones against Saudi forces in Marib. The pro-Iranian militia also claimed to have attacked Saudi weapons and ammunition depots, as well as Saudi command centers. A Psychological War Concurrently with the shift of military tensions to the Yemeni theater, a kind of psychological war appears to be escalating between the two protagonists of the conflict. President Donald Trump once again described Iran’s leaders as “liars” and “devious” figures, stressing that he did not trust the mullahs’ regime. President Trump also said that “the Revolutionary Guards are running out of steam, they have been decimated and are on the run.” The White House chief added that there was no question of the Islamic Republic being allowed to “play the spoiler in the Middle East.” “Iran is no longer the tyrant of the Middle East,” he said. The Revolutionary Guards, for their part, have been more aggressive and belligerent in their statements. They first said that no talks were underway with the Americans over an extension of the cease-fire, adding that, in reality, “there is no cease-fire for there to be any question of extending it.” The adviser to the commander of the Pasdaran was more explicit about Iran’s intentions on this front. Reflecting, no doubt, the radicalization of the Islamic Republic’s leadership following the recent appointment of six senior officers to key military and security posts, he stated explicitly that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had shifted from a “defensive doctrine to an offensive doctrine and must prepare to conduct operations on foreign soil.” He went on, further clarifying the Pasdaran’s new posture: “One of the paths that could be pursued is to prolong this war until the next presidential term (in the United States), in order to wear them down (…). Economic interests around the world can easily be destroyed.” He further specified that “the number of missiles we produce every day is greater than the number of missiles we launch each day.” EU and 26 States Call for an End to Executions in Iran As this senior Pasdaran official spoke of a new “offensive strategy,” Kuwait’s Interior Ministry said Wednesday afternoon that the State Security Department had foiled “a terrorist plot targeting vital infrastructure in the country.” Meanwhile, in another instance of tensions being shifted onto the territory of a third party, the commander of the “Quds Force” (part of the Pasdaran), Esmail Qaani, who is visiting Baghdad, said Wednesday that the new Iraqi government’s decision to establish a state monopoly over weapons “constitutes a stab in the back of Iran.” The Iranian official reportedly called on Iraqi militias beholden to the Islamic Republic to oppose the weapons monopoly policy being pursued by the authorities in Baghdad. It is also worth noting that the European Union and 26 other states issued a joint statement calling on the mullahs’ regime to immediately halt the executions of young people and Iranian nationals who took part in the latest protests in several parts of the Islamic Republic.

A fire smoldering beneath the ashes… At this stage, that appears to be the perception that the radical Iranian camp is seeking to cultivate on multiple fronts. On the military operations front, first… The Yemeni Houthi militia, one of the mullah regime's main proxies in the region, continued on Tuesday, August 11, its campaign of destabilization in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb area, launching three ballistic missiles at a Yemeni commercial vessel crossing the strait. The Houthi attack was particularly deadly, resulting in four crew members killed — three Pakistanis and one Indonesian — and four others wounded. According to Yemen's Ministry of Transport, the pro-Iranian militia also fired a fourth missile during rescue operations, 'with the aim of increasing the number of casualties,' the ministry stated, adding that Houthi attacks on commercial vessels 'threaten the food supply of millions of Yemenis.' Almost simultaneously, U.S. forces deployed in the Gulf region targeted a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz that was attempting to break the naval blockade imposed by the U.S. military on Iranian ports. Shots were fired at the Panama-flagged ship. The restructuring of Iran's military apparatus Alongside these sporadic military operations, the latest appointments within the senior command of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iran's armed forces stand out as a serious indicator that the fire may indeed be smoldering beneath the ashes. Analysis and commentary reported by various Iranian media outlets suggest that the six senior officers appointed on Monday to key positions within the IRGC and armed forces command represent the hardline wing of the mullah regime. The same sources, cited by the Lebanese news site al-Janoubiya (close to the Shia opposition hostile to Hezbollah), indicate that the promotions clearly reflect a hardening stance among Iranian decision-makers, who reportedly made these appointments to boost the regime's offensive and deterrent posture. Nevertheless, Pakistan's Defense Minister declared late Tuesday that the United States and the Islamic Republic are close to reaching an agreement that could bring the current conflict to an end. This statement coincides with a visit to Tehran by Pakistan's Interior Minister, also on Tuesday. This is certainly not the first time Pakistani officials have expressed optimism about an 'imminent' resolution to the regional crisis, but in recent days that optimism has been tempered somewhat by a softening in the typically forceful positions adopted by President Donald Trump. The U.S. president has in fact emphasized on several occasions in recent days that he currently favors maximum economic pressure on the regime over a resumption of large-scale military operations. That said, the American president once again leveled sharp criticism at Iran's leaders, noting that the regime's negotiators are 'particularly deceitful, in that they agree to certain measures during talks only to publicly deny them afterward in front of reporters.' On an entirely different note, Damascus's criminal court on Tuesday sentenced former Syrian president and dictator Bashar al-Assad, his brother Maher, and their cousin Atef Najib to death for crimes against humanity and premeditated killings. The court also decided to pursue international proceedings against them. These convictions sparked celebrations in the Syrian capital.

The region appears to have entered a prolonged “pause,” a lull that could last until the two elections scheduled for the fall, first in Israel and then in the United States. Mobile pockets of tension persist, however, but remain under control. The week now getting underway is following much the same course as the previous one, both politically and militarily. There have been no sharp shifts in position, either on the American or Israeli side, even as U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks on Iran on Sunday continue to fuel speculation about a possible shift in Washington’s strategy. Only Tehran, engaged in a process of internal restructuring, has broken the lull by responding directly to the occupant of the White House. In an interview with the U.S. news site Axios on Sunday, Donald Trump compared the standoff with the Islamic Republic to “a game of chess,” after ruling out the use of force to compel it to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump Takes a Harder Line For the first time in about 10 days, President Trump on Monday resumed his media attacks on Iran’s leadership, saying he intends to demand that the mullahs’ regime compensate “the families of protesters killed over the past 50 years.” The White House chief went further, saying that “Iran must bear responsibility for the damage and loss of life suffered by the people of Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Gaza.” The president’s position on the matter is clearly a response to the stance taken by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, which have set six conditions for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, including a demand that Washington pay Iran compensation for the damage caused by US bombing. Tehran responded with irony through the voice of its Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmaeil Baghaei, who said that Iranians were “professional chess players.” The remark was a way of saying that the Islamic Republic would have the final say in the ongoing conflict, as speculation ran high on Monday about the implications of the shift in U.S. strategy, with Washington for the time being abandoning the military option against Iran in favor of increased economic pressure. By stepping up economic pressure, are the United States betting on the Islamic Republic collapsing from within? Are they trying to ease tensions to prevent internal upheaval ahead of the November midterm elections? Or are they seeking to buy time while replenishing their stocks of weapons and ammunition? These are among the questions that fueled political and media analysis on Monday. What is certain, however, is that indirect talks between Tehran and Washington have been suspended, and that an Iranian-Omani agreement on the management of the Strait of Hormuz, which both sides said on Thursday was imminent, has yet to materialize. During a phone call on Monday, the Iranian and Pakistani foreign ministers discussed everything except the indirect U.S.-Iranian talks that had been taking place through Islamabad. The only development confirmed so far is the resumption of the conflict in Yemen, with the Iran-backed Houthi militia once again fully engaged in fighting Yemeni government forces and Saudi Arabia. The war should be seen as part of the broader power struggle in which Iran is engaged with countries in the region that host U.S. military bases, as Tehran seeks to establish itself as an indispensable regional power. Six Key Appointments in Tehran Although the guns have largely fallen silent, Tehran is using the region’s state of neither war nor peace to rebuild its leadership, particularly its military command. According to various Iranian and pan-Arab media outlets, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has appointed Ahmad Vahidi as commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (the Pasdaran). Five others have also been appointed to key military positions: Ali Abdollahi as chief of staff of the armed forces; Kiyomars Heidari as deputy chief of staff of the armed forces; Mostafa Izadi as deputy commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps; Ali Azmaei as commander of the IRGC’s naval forces; and Hossein Taeb as commander of the Basij paramilitary militia. Tehran had already appointed Mohsen Rezaei, a former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, replacing Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr. The key question is whether this restructuring is also accompanied by a rebuilding of Iran’s military infrastructure, at a time when Israel is threatening to strike the Islamic Republic if it rebuilds its nuclear and ballistic arsenal. Tehran Counts on a U.S. Pullback For now, Tehran appears to be counting on the U.S. strategic pullback, as well as the disagreements that continue to surface between Washington and Tel Aviv, in an effort to get back on its feet. According to various Israeli media outlets, relations between Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are not at their best. Washington is said to favor political solutions and wants Israel to withdraw from Gaza and Lebanon. It also wants Tel Aviv to rein in its threats against Iran, according to reports that say a message to that effect was conveyed to Israeli authorities by Centcom commander Adm. Brad Cooper. But Tel Aviv is said to have rejected all three demands. Israel disputes, in particular, the U.S. plan for Gaza. The same applies to Lebanon, where the Israeli military continues its operations in the part of southern Lebanon it controls, while uncertainty surrounds the eighth round of direct talks, scheduled to take place in Rome in early September. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun discussed the matter Monday with the head of the Lebanese delegation, Simon Karam. According to various reports, the issue of the map posted on X on Sunday – and later taken down – by Israel’s Foreign Ministry, depicting part of southern Lebanon as annexed to Israeli territory, is expected to be raised at the next Lebanese-Israeli meeting, particularly as Beirut insists on a full, gradual Israeli withdrawal from the southern part of the country.

A precarious — and unsettling — calm has prevailed for nearly 48 hours across the Levant and Gulf region, following attacks launched earlier this week by the Iranian-backed Yemeni Houthi militia against Saudi positions along the Yemen-Saudi Arabia border, as well as against areas held by Yemeni loyalist forces under the government recognized by the international community. These loyalist units were set to launch major offensive operations against Houthi positions overnight Friday into Saturday morning. The only notable security development on Saturday, August 8th, was an attack carried out by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps against a UAE tanker in the Strait of Hormuz region. The UAE condemned the attack, describing it as an act of "Iranian piracy." Later in the day, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Jordan strongly condemned the Iranian aggression. Saudi Arabia held Iran responsible for "the continued disgraceful aggressions and attacks on vessels." Qatar, for its part, stressed the "need to put an end to Iran's unjustified acts of aggression." The IRGC raises the stakes Alongside this security development, Saturday was marked by three critically important statements that, taken together, paint a clear picture of the current situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz crisis. At midday on Saturday, the spokesperson for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated bluntly that the restoration of free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz was contingent on the United States yielding to Iran's conditions. In the evening, the Supreme National Security Council — the top body currently making major strategic decisions — issued a communiqué explicitly laying out six conditions for the United States ahead of any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz: a halt to all threats and insults directed at Iran; a permanent end to all wars in Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Palestine; the lifting of the blockade on Iranian ports and the withdrawal of all American forces from Iran's vicinity; the payment of compensation for damages caused by exchanges of fire; the lifting of all sanctions; and the unconditional release of all frozen assets. The president's candid remarks Against this backdrop, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated bluntly on Saturday that "the decision on war and peace lies in the hands of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps." "The decision to stop the war or continue it rests with Iran's military command," the Iranian president emphasized. These remarks suggest the eclipse — or even the disappearance — of the role of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, who is, in principle, responsible for making decisions of such strategic magnitude. It is worth recalling that earlier in the week, President Pezeshkian had stated that contact with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had become extremely difficult. In a telling sign of the deep socioeconomic crisis Iran is facing, the Iranian president noted in his Saturday statement that "it is no longer easy to bring goods into the country, and we must find other ways to achieve this goal." In any case, political circles were awaiting, on Saturday evening, President Donald Trump's response to the conditions set by the IRGC for agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Since the start of the war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran, the Gulf's oil monarchies have been paying a heavy price: unable to strike Tel Aviv or Washington directly, the Islamic Republic has not hesitated to target its Arab neighbors on the pretext that they host American military bases — bases that have largely been evacuated. As a result, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar — despite being considered an Iranian ally — as well as Oman and Jordan have all come under attack. Recently, Tehran activated its proxies in Iraq and Yemen — Iraqi Shia militias and the Yemeni Houthis — who have targeted Saudi oil infrastructure. On top of that, further threats loom over the Arab countries' economies, with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the only maritime outlet of the Persian Gulf, and the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, the gateway to the Red Sea. This simmering conflict is yet another reminder of the lukewarm commitment shown by the great American ally toward its Arab "protégés." The announcement made by these three Washington allies sends a message to Tehran, but also to the United States, increasingly seen as an unreliable partner, according to experts. The NATO model Against this backdrop, it is easy to understand what drove Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey to conclude a defense pact linking the three countries, signed on Friday in Mecca. "The agreement aims to strengthen collective deterrence against any act of aggression and stipulates that an armed attack against any one of the three states shall be considered an attack against all of them," Pakistan's Foreign Ministry stated, with Turkey describing it as "an important contribution to the preservation of peace" in the region. The three Sunni Muslim countries share a common interest in contributing to efforts to resolve the conflict between Iran and the United States, which has set the region ablaze and shaken the global economy. A nuclear power and NATO's second-largest army Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are also already bound by a mutual defense agreement signed in September 2025, the product of a long tradition of military cooperation. Its announcement raised many questions, given that Islamabad possesses nuclear weapons. On Friday, Riyadh denied any connection to "nuclear ambitions" and assured, as did Ankara, that the pact was not directed at any country in the region. Turkey also stated that the agreement with Islamabad and Riyadh was "not in contradiction" with Ankara's commitments to NATO. Ankara further stressed that this trilateral agreement, signed earlier in Mecca, "targets no third country or bloc" and is solely intended to "strengthen cooperation in the defense industry, military training, technology sharing, and regional stability." Turkey has NATO's second-largest military in terms of troop numbers, covers the alliance's eastern flank, and hosted the NATO leaders' summit in early July, which was attended by U.S. President Donald Trump, among others. Security hub in exchange for investment According to an analyst quoted by AFP, this announcement reinforces Saudi Arabia's ambitions to become the guarantor of regional security and to diversify its defense partnerships — a security that has been seriously threatened in recent times by its rivalry with the United Arab Emirates, a rivalry that risked escalating into open conflict in Yemen, well before the war with Iran. For Turkey, also a NATO member, and for Pakistan, the goal is to gain influence and attract Saudi investment. This rapprochement "is clearly directed against Iran," Oumar Karim, a Saudi Arabia specialist at the University of Birmingham, told AFP. The stakes of the straits According to him, the alliance "aims to address the new strategic approach" of Tehran, "which seeks to dominate the entire Gulf region and control maritime traffic through strategic waterways, whether the Strait of Hormuz or the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb." For Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, keeping these maritime passages open is essential. The Red Sea and the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb had become alternative routes as Iran once again locked down the Strait of Hormuz following the resumption of clashes with the United States in July. However, the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have recently imposed a blockade on Saudi vessels and are also threatening shipping through Bab el-Mandeb, on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula. Beyond the maritime front, Saudi Arabia has been targeted on its own soil by the Houthis, who have struck oil infrastructure in recent weeks. The Riyadh-led coalition, which has backed the Yemeni government since 2015, also accused the rebels on Friday of carrying out strikes in the border region of Najran, wounding 11 civilians — an unprecedented attack on the kingdom since the ceasefire reached between the two sides in 2022.